Regional Analysis Archives - Page 42 of 44

December 15, 2015February 9, 2016

[Podcast] Israel’s Allies and Turkey’s Demise

This podcast is a continuation of my previous post on Israel’s indigenous allies. The podcast covers Turkey’s isolation and the fast pace of the new security and energy alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel. In the podcast we also discuss Russia’s relationship to Israel and the turbulent changes in the region. Other subjects we cover are Russia’s encirclement of Turkey by way of Armenia, Iraq, and Syria, as well as Greece and Cyprus.

Sources to look at:

December 14, 2015February 9, 2016

Israel’s Indigenous Allies

In the turbulent middle east friends can be hard to find, yet there are some allies Israel can unify behind it under the banner of fellow indigenous people of the region. Before the Islamic Jihad poured out of the Arabian peninsula, the region looked a lot different. Over the years, the world has gotten used to the idea that the Arab nation has always been here, but as I illustrated in my last post on Yathrib, the truth is a different manner.

What is taking shape in the region spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to East Iraq, is a rising up of those peoples pushed to the corner by Arab muslims over the past 1300 years. The following is a short list of perhaps the most friendly to Israel and why each one can and should see itself as part of a larger alliance in the region.

Kurds

So much has been written about the Kurds. They are the largest group still without a sovereign state, unless you consider the Kurdish Autonomous Region one. They are hated by Turkey and have been friendly to Israel. They are Islamic in culture, but religiously very tolerant. Related to the ancient Medes who were always welcoming to the Jews, they were the indigenous people of what is now Northern Iraq. Attacked from the South by various caliphates and the North by the Turks, the Kurds are fierce in the defense of their homeland.

Israel has provided training and weapons to the KRG and behind the scenes has built an oil trade stemming from Mosul. The fact that both groups find themselves on the same side when it comes to both ISIS and Turkey only cements the quiet partnership.

Druze

The Druze are part of the fabric of Israeli society. They serve in some of the most elite units and are loyal to the state. Israeli Druze consider themselves to be part of a blood pact with the Jewish people and will defend the Land against the Arabs, whom they consider to be invaders. Major population centers of the Druze exist in Southern Lebanon and Jabal Al Druze in Southern Syria. There are 1.5 million Druze in the Levant.

Cypriots

Cyprus has been under the broader Greek world for almost 2.5 thousand years. Lying just to the West of Israel, it is one of the largest islands of the Mediterranean and shares many of the same gas fields as Israel does. It also suffers from occupation, with the Northern half of the Island under occupation from Turkey. This makes Cyprus a perfect partner in both defense and energy.

Arameans

One of the most confusing things about Christians in Israel has been their connection to the Arab narrative. Of course this has always been partly due to the fact that the Arab conquest forced many of these Christians to adopt Arab culture. Despite this, many Christians in Israel and Syria have clawed back into their roots and have rebuilt their stolen identity once known as Aramean. These Arameans are under threat in Syria, but have found Israel to be an excellent and natural ally against their common enemy, radical Islam.

Copts

Copts are the indigenous people of Egypt, that is before the Arabs invaded. They remained the majority population there until the 10th century and to this day are a large minority within Egypt. Since their roots can be traced to the beginning of Christianity and according to many Copts to the ancient Egyptians, the Arabs have made sure to oppress them in order to substantiate their hold. Copts probably suffer the worst persecution across Egypt, Sudan, and Libya. Their plight is well known. Recently El Sisi, president of Egypt has gone out of his way to protect them.

Armenians

Armenians are an ancient people and although in the Southern Caucasus region, their proximity to Turkey, Iran, and Iraq, put them into the Middle East’s strategic envelope. They suffered heavily under the Turks and were decimated by the Ottomans in the early 20th century. One of the four quarters in Jerusalem’s Old City is heavily populated by Armenians and because of their suffering at the hands of the Turks they feel a sense of friendship with Israel and the Jewish people.

Armenians are also becoming a key geo-location in the growing friction between Russia and Turkey. Russia has recently positioned attack helicopters there as part of their growing encirclement of Turkey. With all eyes on Turkey and ISIS, Armenia provides a great strategic ally in Caucasus region for Israel. It is another indigenous people that have suffered at the hands of Turkey, which has become one of the main backers of ISIS and radical Islam.

The above groups can serve as something more than a security envelope for Israel. They can serve as a foundation for a liberated Middle East.

December 13, 2015February 9, 2016

We Want Yathrib Back

When we want to confront our present, we often forget about using our history as a guideline. Islam understands that most of humanity is detached from its past. As much as we pride ourselves as knowledgeable, we have a hard time shaking preconceived notions of who is or who isn’t indigenous to a particular place. Muslim Arabs will have the accidental observer believing that the whole of the Middle East has been their home for thousands of years. Of course, this couldn’t be farther from the truth. This is why Islam has the practice of transferring the narratives and locations of cultures it conquers into its own narrative.

yathrib-khybar — Map showing Yathrib (today’s Medina) and Khaybar another Jewish city Muslims wiped out.

It is not an accident that after the Muhammad’s victory at Badr he moved to expel the Jewish tribes in control of Yathrib. These tribes along with the Ansar gave Muhammad and his followers protection. In typical Muhammed fashion and what would set the stage for future Islamic warfare, they waited until the right time to rally people to their side against the Jews, causing the Jewish tribes to push Muhammad out of their city. However, the Jewish tribes and their allies lost in the Battle of the Trench. The main Jewish tribe, the Banu Qurayza of Yathrib were expelled with the men executed. Muhammed changed the name of the city to Medina as it is now known. Jews were banned from there and Medina in the eyes of the World has and will always be a Muslim Holy city. Of course Yathrib was only the beginning.

Khaybar, another Jewish controlled city and perhaps the strongest one became the site of Muhammad’s famous victory over the Jews of the Arabian peninsula.

From North Africa to Istanbul to the Arabian Peninsula, Islam has appropriated and erased history. We are seeing the Islamic State continue this tradition, and ultimately the Palestinian National Movement does this throughout Israel as well.

One has to wonder why Jihadist Islam does this. My assumption is the fact that Islam owes its success to turning the tables on the people of the Book, serves as a sort of pandora’s box for the veracity that Islam, or should I say fundamentalist Islam, is nothing more than Mein Kampf with religious overtones.

It should not go unmentioned that Muhammad himself was sure that the Jews would follow him. The Koran at one point directs Muslims to pray towards Jerusalem and only after the Jews rejected him as their Messiah did Muhammad change directions to Mecca.

Truth is hard to swallow to those who have staked their causes on falsehood. Yathrib and Jewish Arabia is a fact. The reality that Islam’s second holiest city became so by uprooting the people of the Book from it and by doing so uprooting the Islamic claim to being connected to them has created an inner conflict that expresses itself in the guise of hatred towards Israel. For the Jihadist and fundamentalist Muslim all areas of Jewish existence and especially sovereignty are Yathrib, waiting to be turned into Medina.

The problem for Radical Islam and its millions of adherents, is that the rise of Israel reverses the conquering of Yathrib. This they know deep inside means that their own success is also being reversed. For peace to reign Islam needs to acknowledge the injustice of their cause. The quickest way to right historic wrongs is for the Muslim world to come to grips with the fact that they have built their belief set on the ashes and rubble of Yathrib. Perhaps changing its modern name back to its original would go a long way to explaining to the throngs of believers that the game is up. For some reason I don’t believe that will happen.

December 8, 2015February 9, 2016

Iran and the Jabal Al Druze Fiasco

The political and military echelon in Israel have often stated that Israel is staying neutral in the Syrian civil war. Any attacks on Syrian targets were meant to prevent game changing weaponry from falling into the hands of Hezbollah. After all, they insisted, our enemies are killing each other. No one seemed to be able to foresee direct Russian involvement and with it Iranian ground troops moving closer to Israel.

When the dust settles between Russia and Turkey their ISIS allies, Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces will in fact attack Israel. Despite what the leadership will tell us, their “neutrality” during this war enabled Iranian troops to fill the void left open on the Syrian side of the Golan. This tactical blunder on Israel’s part could have been thwarted as late as this past June. Jabal Al Druze or otherwise known as Druze Mountain is a district and home to a large portion of the Syrian Druze population situated East of the Golan Heights on the border of Jordan. It is a mountainous region and until the civil war the population remained 100% loyal to Assad.

With chaos reigning, ISIS forces began closing in on Jabal Al Druze in June and since the Druze are considered apostates by the Jihadists, many experts believed they would be killed on mass. Israel’s own Druze population wanted more to be done and yet nothing overt was undertaken.

All of this was before Russian involvement, when Assad looked as if he was finished. Israel’s opportunity to push their security line far to the East was missed and now a resurgent Assad can once again count on the loyalty of the Druze there.

One of the reasons why Israel did not go into Jabal Al Druze was because the Israeli elite abhor the appearance of seeming like the aggressor. The problem with this approach and especially in this situation, was that the Druze really looked under threat and given Israel’s own loyal Druze populace and the blood bond many of them feel with the people of Israel, extending the IDF’s control over this area would have been wholly explainable to the international community.

By the way, it should be noted that Jabal Al Druze was actually an autonomous region from 1921 to 1936 when Syria was under French control.

Timing is Everything

Five months later, and the Middle East has changed into something unrecognizable. Timing is everything in war and staying neutral is never an option within a fluid situation. Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy has always been to wait this out, but opportunities are lost when you don’t move in time. The loss of moving Israel’s security line East, by harnessing a thankful Druze population in Southern Syria, now means Iran is at Israel’s border.

How fast the next stage of the conflict progresses is anyone’s guess, but if the last 2 months are an indication, staying out of Syria is no longer an option.

December 7, 2015February 9, 2016

Putin on the Move

It is clear that Putin sees his mission to exterminate ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition to Assad. To Putin they are one and the same. This entails Russia successfully destroying Turkey’s supply lines to their ISIS allies. Right now Russia is doing this in the Western part of Syria by obliterating the Turkmen bases in the Kızıldağ district on the border of Turkey. After Kızıldağ the next logical place for Putin to focus on would be the remaining supply route from Turkey into Syria and that would be from the border of Turkey and Syria near Jarabulus a Syrian city that has a population 11,500. The road from there leads South along the Euphrates River to the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqah.

If Putin and Syrian ground forces continue to advance against both ISIS and the Turkish supply lines, ISIS will be crippled, leaving only Iraq as a solid territory under their rule. Yet, that too could be under fire soon as the Iraqi government has asked Russia to step in and kick Turkish forces from Northern Iraq.

If Russia succeeds with the help of Syrian and Iranian ground forces, Turkey will end up with an emboldened Kurdish presence to its South as well as a generational setback to Erdogan’s grand designs to be the neo-Sultan of the Middle East. The Sunni World would be in upheavel and the Middle East and the bulk of the world’s oil supply would be held by Russia and the Shiites (save for Saudi Arabia).

Closing the Bosphorous is Turkey’s Only Recourse

Below is the relevant text from the Montreux Convention Articles 19, 20, and 21 of agreed upon in 1936:

Article 19.

“In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.”

“Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.”

Article 20.

“In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.”

Article 21.

“Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.”

We are all aware by now that Turkey has been slowing down Russian vessels and with that a Russian warship had a soldier standing on it with a shoulder guided missile in plain site. According to the above treaty Russia broke article 19 and Turkey very well may use that in the coming days to close the straits. Putin will have to reopen them by force setting the stage for a broad war against NATO. Erdoan is banking on NATO stepping in. Putin believes they will at the most make a token gesture out of Europe’s fear of having their gas cut in the dead of winter.

Of course Obama and the USA are stuck between two converging realities. With the ISIS attack in San Bernadino last week, Obama would be hard pressed to defend Turkey given Russia’s proof that Erdogan has been assisting ISIS and then again not defending Turkey would mean that Russia and Iran would be in control of much of the Middle East and the Black Sea with Russia having an acute ability to dictate the future of Europe. Right now Obama seems frozen or pre-occupied in order to turn the domestic situation to some sort of advantage for his agenda.

Iran Filling the Void in the Syrian Golan

While Russia makes moves to flatten Turkey and their aspirations, Iran is using their tactical pact with Russia to take over the positions ISIS and Al Nusra once had in the Syrian side of the Golan. Israel’s leaders have made bellicose statements, but Iran stands undeterred as their pincher move is rapidly set up. Israel has one move and that is to strike now while Russia is involved in the North, but that brings another set consequences. The die is cast. The next moves on the chessboard of the now expanding Syrian conflict is Israel’s and Turkey’s.