Category: Regional Analysis

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Iran and USA: Cornering Israel

Shortly before President Obama’s final State of the Union Address, Iranian Revolutionary Guards gunboats seized and detained 2 ships belonging to the United States military and the ten marines on board. Less than 24 hours later the marines were released. The typical chorus and rhapsody of neoconservative pundits seriously believed that this would be the “straw that broke the camel’s back” and Obama would have the guts to stand up to the Persians.

The assumption that the Obama administration works according to the same rule book that past Presidents have is a perception that just doesn’t fit.  The Obama administration won’t risk war with Iran, not because it believes war is bad.  Afterall they toppled Gaddafi. They won’t risk war with Iran, because Obama and team and their shrills in the media believe wholeheartedly that Iran should be seen as a future strategic partner.  After all, Obama didn’t even mention the captive soldiers in his State of the Union Address. Of course for Obama, this is more to do with his world outlook than strategic positioning.

Barack Obama is a transformational President. In that regard, bridging the divide with Persia, a country he believes deserves respect because of their ancient roots, fits in with his restructuring of geopolitical partnerships.

Furthermore, it is quite probable the action Iran took was undertaken from the beginning as a means to show that they are actually reasonable. Given Obama’s rapprochement with Iran, he is more than willing to let Iran play the part of a reasonable actor.

Israel In a Corner

Bibi Netanyahu’s entire mantra is that one should not negotiate with irrational actors as was done with North Korea. Bibi has from the beginning tried to prove that Iran and North Korea are very similar.  This has fed into Obama’s strategy of showing the opposite.  By inculcating in the American people that Bibi and Israel are saber rattling and preventing what should otherwise we be a rapprochement, then the bad guys backed by the neocons is really Israel.

Once again the the chess match between Bibi and Obama has entered another back and forth phase.  The challenge for Israel is realizing they are playing  at a chessboard alone as their challenger plays with very different rules and a far more sinister goal.

 

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Iran and the USA: Partnering for Destruction

In the shifting sands of the Middle East, old alliances are crumbling and new ones are forming.  Nowhere do we see the evidence of this in the support the American government is giving Iran over Saudi Arabia in the growing feud between the two countries.

True, the American administration is playing it cool, but already the think tanks that lay various trial balloons have been working over time.  

“Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble, and they know it,” Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider on Sunday.

Bremmer added on Morning Joe that “I don’t know what legitimizes this regime [Saudi Arabia] going forward.”

The chorus is growing to let Saudi Arabia stew and in a sense the regime there understands it and that is exactly why they are ratcheting up the pressure. One of the arguments for going neutral or even subtly supporting Iran against Saudi Arabia is that eventually the theocrats in Persia will melt away and when they do Iran fits in far better with a future American foreign policy than Saudi Arabia.  

Whether or not there is some legitimacy to this is not the point, what the world is witnessing is a pendulum that is swinging so fast that it threatens to destabilize the remaining normative countries in the region.  This storm that is brewing between Iran and Saudi Arabia will almost certainly lead to a disastrous conflict that can and will bring in nations from around the world.

The Future is Now

Israel will have to act in a careful, but at the same time determined manner. Unfortunately the present leadership has allowed the threats to build up around Israel’s borders and may actually be much further in a corner than they want to admit.

Look for the next few months to be extremely volatile in the broader Middle East as countries jockey position before the opening shots of a much broader conflict.

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Can Russia Be Trusted?

The deconfliction mechanism that had been hailed as a stroke of geopolitical genius from the brain of Bibi Netanyahu seems to be a double edge sword. It is a sour pill that keeps on getting worse.  Especially now that Hezbollah is exploiting the agreement to prepare a forward attack on Israel’s North. It is true that Russia would prefer not to have an Israel that feels so threatened it destabilizes the Levant, but like I have insisted for a while, Putin is far more a tactical player when dealing opposing forces he wants to utilize in his broader strategy.

For Putin those that deserve his help are those that perform.  Israel will have to deal with an Iranian backed militia with free reign to attack, while delicately placating the Russian Bear who seems to be bending the rules of the deconfliction mechanism each week.

Trusting Putin is Mistake

The Israeli government has consistently made the same mistake throughout the decades.  It struggles to find players it feels it can put its trust in and by providing more assistance than anyone else it believes there will be reciprocity.

During the Cold War this strategy worked, simply because the tectonic plates of geopolitics demanded that it worked, but now in a multipolar world, putting trust in one country or another without strong leverage is a mistake.

Although Putin is a strong man, Israel is just another piece on his chessboard. Nothing should prove this more than Putin forcing us into a corner through niceties while Hezbollah and Iran have been able to build up on Israel’s borders.  It’s true Putin has allowed the Israeli Air force to attack arms convoys heading to Hezbollah. It is striking that the IAF did not attack in the latest skirmish, but rather Israel resorted to pounding the area with artillery.  This can only mean one thing.  Russia is holding Israel back from taking clear steps against Hezbollah.

Trust Only in G-d

Israel’s government needs to rely only on themselves and their faith in the Almighty  All else will fall into place.  The miracles that accompanied the Jewish people back to their Land are clear. If the Nation will increase their belief and trust in the Almighty as they did in the past then nothing will harm them.  Unfortunately the government seems to only mention themselves in reference to the situation without attribution to a higher power.

In the coming months the situation will continue to deteriorate. The question is who will stand up and lead Israel to victory.

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Iran and Saudi Arabia to the Death

The news on most geopolitical analysts minds is whether Iran will back up their harsh verbal response to Saudi Arabia’s beheading of a Shiite Sheik with something more militaristic. At the end of the day, Iran has a small window of time to put the squeeze on Saudi Arabia. Right now, Russia shields Iran from any backlash thrown at them if they choose to be more aggressive. Mix in Obama’s dismal mideast policy, the ingredients are there for Iran to make a move.

Saudi Arabia also has a short time frame to flex their muscles. Iran is building a superior ballistic missile program and Saudi Arabia cannot afford to let the Persians stabilize themselves and grow into a true regional super power.

This Year is it

The next four to six months are key as Sunni Islam is on the defensive against a resurgent Shiite Crescent backed by Russian firepower.  Each side will grow more bellicose both in verbiage and actual actions taken. Already, Iranians stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.  Expect much more.

Next Actions

Iran will attempt to foment organic uprisings in the gulf allies of Saudi Arabia.  They will also stir trouble in the Shiite dominated Saudi Southeast and once again in Yemen. Saudi Arabia will continue to financially back ISIS and other groups. All of these steps seem to be leading to a head on collision will have an explosive and devastating effect on the region and quite possibly the whole world.

The Israel Factor

So how does this affect Israel? With the government seemingly dozzy with the growing intifada, the real danger is are threats piling up on the border. Although Saudi Arabia and Israel are not freind in the slightest, in terms of Iran they are tactically ready to work together.  Look for more intelligence sharing as well as overt military maneuvers to increase. If there is a move towards open war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel may take direct action against Iran, that is if they don’t have their own flank to defend.

 

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OPEN THE DOOR AND LET JUSTICE IN

Knock, knock! Who’s there? Erdogan is knocking on Israel’s door. Shock! Surprise!! NOT! Turkey, with debacle after debacle now wants to restore relations with Israel. Oh really? After Erdogan’s military shot down a Russian jet, within hours Putin announced his first move, economic sanctions on Turkey, saying ‘We will not buy from you, rather we will buy from Israel.’

Stab and twist.

With Putin’s strong arm in Syria, the Russian military is coming out successful in efforts to obliterate ISIS/Daesh and frankly, Turkey is in the roost. Not only has Turkey been accused of aiding and financing ISIS/Daesh, who is one of the most evil & vile force in the world today, but Turkey is widely known to be connected to our enemy, Hamas. This factor must, absolutely be dealt with. Putin in a smart political move met with Netanyahu to show Erdogan and whoever else, this alliance is fortified. Now Erdogan wants to restore relations with Israel.

By the year’s end, the Israeli government will decide how to proceed with Turkey. What will the strategy be? Flotilla payoff? Unilateral or bilateral demands? Anything? BUT WAIT! Another door has been knocking in Israel for years!! Behind it the blood of over a millions Armenians is crying out to NOT BE forgotten. Israel needs jump on this opportune time and recognize the Armenian Genocide with no delay.

Why now? Clearly, Israel has the upper hand. What do we have to lose? Erdogan needs Israel…. Our way or the highway. And I boldly suggest they stipulate Turkey to finally come out and confess their dirty deed. Israel, in particular, the Holocaust people needed to make this announcement many years ago, but to our shame because of politics, i.e. Turkish & Azerbaijani relations we have NOT. Try to put yourself in their shoes. Grounds of politics LOCKED, on grounds of compassion UNLOCKED with a welcome mat. In recent months, the news over and over again exposed how the Grand Mufti who spurred on the king of the Nazis to burn the Jews was also a part of the Armenian Genocide, and when he became the Grand Mufti, it was he who went to Hitler and helped plot against the Jewish people. Do you see the connection? Of course then there’s the famous quote when Hitler said, ‘Who remembers what happen to the Armenians.’

It is clear that we are connected in more ways than one, with Azerbajian/Nagorno-Karabagh conflict (an Armenian populated region given by the soviets to the modern day Azeris) and the Israeli/’Palestinian’ conflict. Both a diaspora people who recently obtained a country again, respectively. And here we are again, shall we stand idly by?? With the outreach of Armenians visiting and building relations with Israel, Armenia has proven to be a good ally even though, through ignorance, we are on Azerbaijan’s arms vendor list.

Armenia is a thriving, ambitious young country whose numbers would have been exponentially greater had not their Genocide like for us, had our Holocaust not happened. Our histories’ similar, our plights’ alike and our conflicts unresolved… There have been many advocates: Rivlin, pre-presidential days was a strong proponent for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, Edelstein has gone before the Knesset earlier this year, Israeli Greek Orthodox priest Naddaf is outspoken for this cause, in Nov Sassounian, an American Armenian editor brought forth a compassionate, logical plea, of course for years the Israeli Armenian Community has attempted to reach ear that will not hear, last week a delegation from Armenian visited Israel and finally we the people of Israel, stand up and ask for justice. Israel must put politics aside once and for all. Let us stand with the Armenian people whose motto is Never Forget and say Never Again our motto. The time is now to open the door and recognize the Armenian Genocide.

I implore the Israel government to take this opportunity and make history. Stop being embarrassed of what we haven’t done and make a wrong right and also to stipulate to Turkey in their time of desperation, that Turkey needs to confess what the Ottoman Empire committed against the Armenians. Let’s take it all the way…. Answer the door let the screaming blood of the dead be put to rest. The doors are knocking…. open them both and restore the dignity of the dead and demand from Turkey justice as we are a light to the nations. Why? Because righteousness and wisdom is our path…