Category: Regional Analysis

Posted on

From Kurdistan to South Sudan: Israel’s Covert Operations Push Independence

It is no secret that Israel’s foreign policy has shifted in the last decade to aiding developing countries and regions that share a concurrent enemy in regards to radical Islam.  Most of the time Israel extends its hands in the form of technology and aid, but two nascent states have received far more.

Kurdistan, A Silent Partner Against Radical Islam

Kurdistan has been an independence project long in the making.  Nestled in Northern Iraq, Syria, Southeastern Turkey, and Western Iran, the Kurds are largest indigenous people without a state. Israelis covert cooperation has been primarily focused on ties to the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq (KRG). The ties in the past included weapons training, arms, and other intelligence support.  It cannot be confirmed whether or not there is still a military aspect to the relationship, but it is said Israel enjoys Kurdish oil and helps it transfer the oil to Europe and beyond.  Most analysts believe Israel has been instrumental in helping the Kurds build the Peshmerga into a serious fighting force in which their future independence relies.

An independent Kurdistan plays well in the Israeli strategy of working with non-radical indigenous actors that will in the future work overtly with the Jewish state when the geopolitical arena warms to Israel’s existence.

South Sudan, Forward Ally Against Iran in Africa

The history between South Sudan and Israel goes back to the late 1960’s, long before talk of South Sudan had entered the minds of the global power brokers. Representatives of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army made contact with Israel in hopes of striking a partnership.  Over the years, Israel has given more than just aid, it has trained and delivered arms to those fighting for South Sudan’s independence. It has been so apparent to all observers the role Israel played in prying South Sudan from the jaws of the Northern Radical Islamist regime in Sudan that the South Sudan president Salva Kiir said the following in his visit to Israel in August 2011:

“Without you, we would not have arisen. You struggled alongside us in order to allow the establishment of South Sudan and we are interested in learning from your experience.”

South Sudan’s independence is a roll back on Iran and its proxies’ drive South into the Sub Sahara.  It also proves how long term relationships in Africa that are built on economy and security can be very effective in the face of radical threats.

Is Biafra Next?

Following a similar pattern and necessity in terms of Israel’s geopolitical needs, Biafra is a strong candidate to secure covert aid.  Nigeria was supposed to be Israel’s new Africa ally, but the ascendancy of Islamist Buhari to the Presidency has forced Israel’s government to rethink its strategy.  This is why Biafra, if positioned correctly, could play a vital role in securing the Jewish state’s first long term ally on the Gold Coast.  There is just one challenge, Biafra is no South Sudan.  Last time it tried for independence 3 million innocent Biafrans lost their lives.  Israel will have to weigh whether or not it can be successful in helping Biafra secure freedom.  If so it may be the first time the Jewish state would be able to legitimately plant its flag in West Africa as a partner with the continent’s first Hebraic Nation.

 

Posted on

The Real Reason Trump Wants to Hit Syria…

All signs are pointing to an imminent “preemptive” strike by the US against Syria.  This is of course a prelude to an ever-expanding role for the US military in Syria.  Now, even if Syria was about to use chemical weapons it is not clear why the US is suddenly concerned about intervening in the 6-year-old civil war. Yet, they are intervening and have been increasing their ground ops for weeks.

  • The US Military has been actively training an supporting the SDF and YPG against ISIS in Raqqa as well as solidifying the groups’ hold over large areas of Eastern Syria
  • The US Military has been active on the Eastern part of the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi border area, building US bases in Syria.
  • The US Military has redeployed the YPG to Southeastern Syria in hopes they will hold off the Syrian regime advancement

With all of the above in mind, Trump’s now direct threat against the Syrian regime and Russia’s response puts the entie region on the verge of a Syrian War on steroids.

So why would Trump risk a war with Russia/Iran over chemical weapons infractions?

As we have reported here, the Syrian Regime and its Iranian allies have been gaining ground across the country. According to sources on the ground, the Syrian regime is close to defeating rebel units in Daraa.  The Syriran regime has already started to advance on Israel, but has been held back for now by elements of the FSA (Free Syrian Army) which Israel covertly backs. In the East, the YPG has been unable to hold off the Regime’s advance.

If Trump does not make a move soon, the FSA in the Quneitra area will collapse and at the same time the gains by the US and Jordan in the East will be effectively reversed.  This will complete the Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Aleppo, and create an existential threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Shiite Crescent will also give strength to Turkey’s goal of wiping out the Kurds, effectively ending Kurdistan’s drive for independence.

The US has little time to maneuver as Syria backed by Russia and Iran are in the final weeks of mopping up from the Syrian civil war.

It is either now or never.

Posted on

PUTIN RESPONDS: “White House Threats Against Syria Are Unnacceptable”

With the White House catching even the State Department off-guard with its veiled attack on “Syrian preparations” for another chemical weapons attack, Russia countered with its own statement.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov released the following statement pushing back on the Trump Administration:

“We heard about this statement. We do not know what is the basis for this. And of course we categorically disagree with the ‘another attack’ wording,” Peskov told reporters.”We also consider any similar threats to the legitimate leadership of the Syrian Arab Republic unacceptable.”

Peskov continued: “Cases of chemical toxic substances’ use by Daesh terrorists have been repeatedly recorded. There is a potential threat of the repeat of such provocations. However, I repeat that I don’t possess exact information and I believe that my colleagues from special services and the Defense Ministry will share it [information] if they possess it.”

Although no evidence was stated by the White House of Syrian preparations, Assad has been known to own stockpiles of illegal Sarin Gas.  Russia has often times blamed ISIS for Assad’s chemical weapons infractions.

That being said, the following statement by Nikki Haley is a bit odd.

This sort of statement backs up Russia’s assertions and would in fact invite a chemical weapons attack by ISIS just so Syria can be blamed.

If the White House is right about Syria, then everyone there should pull back from Twitter usage as to not give the Russians anymore ammunition for their disinformation and propoganda campaign.

If the White House is not right about Syria then we are witnessing the makings of a false flag attack in real time.

Posted on

IRAN: “We Caused Our Missiles To Miss On Purpose…”

Last week Iran fired six ground to ground missiles at Deir el-Zour, more than 600 kilometers (370 miles) away in Eastern Syria, reportedly at ISIS. Most reports indicated that the missiles missed their mark and fell apart hitting the desert.

While Iran has never disagreed on those two points, the Mullahs have pushed back on the reasons for the stunning miss.

State TV’s website quoted the airspace division chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying “we had coordinated the fall of the engines in the desert in Iraq” in advance.

“The missiles we used were two-stage, it means that the engine separates from the warhead,” said Hajizadeh.

Impact on Israel

Israel reported that the warheads missed their mark, while three didn’t even reach Syrian territory.  If the report is correct, Iranian missile technology, at least the kind that was used on Sunday is not as advanced as orginally thought.  Does this mean Israel should rest easy?

No. The Iranian regime is also very good at playing games.  They could have launched those missiles purposely showing off faulty technology to throw the West off.

This is a lot better than the official explanation given for the reason why Israel was able to track downed missiles:

“Pity those who call themselves experts and do not understand that these were the first-stage engines (that fell), while the warheads hit targets.”

Either the Iranian regime doesn’t know the Russians, USA, and Israel all recorded missiles that missed their mark or they are just face saving.  Either way, unless this is a ruse, the Mullahs are in far worse shape than we thought.

Posted on

The Truth About Jewish Communities in Judea and Samaria

For 50 years now, Israel has endured censure from global bodies and foreign countries for its construction and development of Jewish communities in the ancient Israelite tribal territories of Judah, Benjamin, Ephraim, and western Menasheh, a.k.a. Judea & Samaria, referred to by the international community as the “West Bank”.

These Jewish communities are routinely condemned as illegal and illegitimate under international law and wielded as a political tool with which to tarnish Israel’s reputation. However, this position glaringly fails to take into account elementary history, Jewish indigeneity to the Land of Israel, and the applicability of international law.

 

Judea & Samaria form the heartland of the homeland of the Jewish People—the Land of Israel—which Jews have inhabited for 4,000 years.

 

  • Since the era circa 2000 BCE when the biblical patriarchs and matriarchs first settled and constructed in Shechem, Beth-El, Ai, and Hebron (a.k.a. Mamre/Kiryat Arba), Jews have been an autochthonous people throughout the area.
  • Judea & Samaria consist of the ancient Israelite tribal territories of Judah, Benjamin, Ephraim, and west Menasheh.
  • Jewish predominance in the area ended as a result of the Jews being besieged and starved, slaughtered, sold into slavery, exiled, and expelled by their imperial Roman conquerors and occupiers following The Great Revolt (66-73 CE) and The Bar Kokhba Revolt (132-135 CE).
  • Arabs only became a major presence in the area following the Islamic conquests of 634-636 CE under Caliph Umar’s imperial Muslim armies led by Khalid ibn al-Walid, Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah, Amr ibn al-A’as, and Shurahbeel ibn Hasana.

 

Judea & Samaria never constituted an independent Arab state under sovereign authority.

 

  • After being conquered by Sultan Selim I, these areas were controlled by the Ottoman Empire from 1516-1917, ruled as sub-districts of the province of Damascus from the imperial Ottoman capital at Istanbul.
  • Following the War of Independence of 1948, Jordan illegally occupied Judea & Samaria from 1948-1967 and prohibited Jews from living in these areas, contravening the Mandate for Palestine adopted by the League of Nations in 1922.

 

Jews finally reclaimed Judea & Samaria in the defensive Six Day War of 1967.

 

  • In June 1967, with belligerent Arab armies from Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq poised to exterminate Israel, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes and within a week had achieved stunning victories which included regaining its historic heartland.
  • As the aboriginal people of the Land of Israel, Israeli settlers are repatriating and repopulating the historic land of their forebears.

 

The Fourth Geneva Convention (GCIV), an international treaty adopted in August 1949 in the wake of Nazi atrocities and signed by Israel in 1951, was designed to protect civilians and regulate the rules of war, not to adjudicate or arbitrate disputed territories.

 

  • From the normative Jewish/Israeli perspective, Judea & Samaria were areas liberated, not occupied, in 1967 and therefore Section III of the Fourth Geneva Convention does not pertain.
  • Jews possess the legal right to settle in Judea & Samaria.
  • Section III, Article 49 (1) of the GCIV states: “Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.” ( Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949. https://www.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/ART/380-600056?OpenDocument) Since Israel regained control over Judea & Samaria in 1967, locals Arabs have not been forcibly displaced and today they number approx. 2.78 million alongside approx. 371,000 Jews.
  • Section III, Article 49 (6) of the GCIV states: “The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.” (Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949. https://www.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/ART/380-600056?OpenDocument) Jewish inhabitants of Judea & Samaria are not forcibly implanted therein by Israeli governments, but reside there voluntarily.
  • “The provisions of Article 49 (6) regarding forced population transfer to occupied foreign territory should not be seen as prohibiting the voluntary return of individuals to the towns and villages from which they, or their ancestors, had been forcibly ousted. Nor does it prohibit the movement of individuals to land which was not under the legitimate sovereignty of any state and which is not subject to private ownership. In this regard, it should be noted that Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been established only after an exhaustive investigation process, under the supervision of the Supreme Court of Israel, and subject to appeal, which is designed to ensure that no communities are established illegally on private land.” (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Israeli Settlements and International Law.” (Nov 30, 2015. http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/foreignpolicy/peace/guide/pages/israeli%20settlements%20and%20international%20law.aspx)
  • While Israel does not accept that the Fourth Geneva Convention applies de jure, it has stated that on humanitarian issues it will govern itself de facto by certain GCIV provisions.

 

Jewish communities in Judea & Samaria are explicitly recognized as subject to exclusive Israeli jurisdiction within bilateral agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs.

 

  • These agreements affirm that settlements remain under Israel’s remit “pending the outcome of peace negotiations, and do not prohibit settlement activity.” (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Israeli Settlements and International Law.” Nov 30, 2015. http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/foreignpolicy/peace/guide/pages/israeli%20settlements%20and%20international%20law.aspx)

 

Numerous Israeli settlements have been re-established on sites formerly home to native Jewish populations, in an expression of the Jewish People’s profound historical and ongoing connection to its homeland, the cradle of Jewish civilization.

 

  • A significant number of settlements are situated in loci where previous Jewish communities were forcibly expelled by Arab armies or militia, or slaughtered, as was the case with the ancient Jewish community of Hebron in 1929.

 

The only illegal or unauthorized (under Israeli law) settlements in Judea & Samaria are those Jewish outposts established without Israeli building permits.

 

  • Outposts are small settlements usually consisting of less than 1,000 residents, some of which were established on state lands and others on private Arab land. Estimates of the number of outposts range from around 50 to over 100, depending on the classification of an outpost as a standalone entity or a settlement neighborhood.
  • In recent years the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has determined to retroactively legalize at least some outposts on state lands and to dismantle those on privately-owned Arab property.