Category: Politics

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Iran and the USA: Partnering for Destruction

In the shifting sands of the Middle East, old alliances are crumbling and new ones are forming.  Nowhere do we see the evidence of this in the support the American government is giving Iran over Saudi Arabia in the growing feud between the two countries.

True, the American administration is playing it cool, but already the think tanks that lay various trial balloons have been working over time.  

“Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble, and they know it,” Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider on Sunday.

Bremmer added on Morning Joe that “I don’t know what legitimizes this regime [Saudi Arabia] going forward.”

The chorus is growing to let Saudi Arabia stew and in a sense the regime there understands it and that is exactly why they are ratcheting up the pressure. One of the arguments for going neutral or even subtly supporting Iran against Saudi Arabia is that eventually the theocrats in Persia will melt away and when they do Iran fits in far better with a future American foreign policy than Saudi Arabia.  

Whether or not there is some legitimacy to this is not the point, what the world is witnessing is a pendulum that is swinging so fast that it threatens to destabilize the remaining normative countries in the region.  This storm that is brewing between Iran and Saudi Arabia will almost certainly lead to a disastrous conflict that can and will bring in nations from around the world.

The Future is Now

Israel will have to act in a careful, but at the same time determined manner. Unfortunately the present leadership has allowed the threats to build up around Israel’s borders and may actually be much further in a corner than they want to admit.

Look for the next few months to be extremely volatile in the broader Middle East as countries jockey position before the opening shots of a much broader conflict.

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OPEN THE DOOR AND LET JUSTICE IN

Knock, knock! Who’s there? Erdogan is knocking on Israel’s door. Shock! Surprise!! NOT! Turkey, with debacle after debacle now wants to restore relations with Israel. Oh really? After Erdogan’s military shot down a Russian jet, within hours Putin announced his first move, economic sanctions on Turkey, saying ‘We will not buy from you, rather we will buy from Israel.’

Stab and twist.

With Putin’s strong arm in Syria, the Russian military is coming out successful in efforts to obliterate ISIS/Daesh and frankly, Turkey is in the roost. Not only has Turkey been accused of aiding and financing ISIS/Daesh, who is one of the most evil & vile force in the world today, but Turkey is widely known to be connected to our enemy, Hamas. This factor must, absolutely be dealt with. Putin in a smart political move met with Netanyahu to show Erdogan and whoever else, this alliance is fortified. Now Erdogan wants to restore relations with Israel.

By the year’s end, the Israeli government will decide how to proceed with Turkey. What will the strategy be? Flotilla payoff? Unilateral or bilateral demands? Anything? BUT WAIT! Another door has been knocking in Israel for years!! Behind it the blood of over a millions Armenians is crying out to NOT BE forgotten. Israel needs jump on this opportune time and recognize the Armenian Genocide with no delay.

Why now? Clearly, Israel has the upper hand. What do we have to lose? Erdogan needs Israel…. Our way or the highway. And I boldly suggest they stipulate Turkey to finally come out and confess their dirty deed. Israel, in particular, the Holocaust people needed to make this announcement many years ago, but to our shame because of politics, i.e. Turkish & Azerbaijani relations we have NOT. Try to put yourself in their shoes. Grounds of politics LOCKED, on grounds of compassion UNLOCKED with a welcome mat. In recent months, the news over and over again exposed how the Grand Mufti who spurred on the king of the Nazis to burn the Jews was also a part of the Armenian Genocide, and when he became the Grand Mufti, it was he who went to Hitler and helped plot against the Jewish people. Do you see the connection? Of course then there’s the famous quote when Hitler said, ‘Who remembers what happen to the Armenians.’

It is clear that we are connected in more ways than one, with Azerbajian/Nagorno-Karabagh conflict (an Armenian populated region given by the soviets to the modern day Azeris) and the Israeli/’Palestinian’ conflict. Both a diaspora people who recently obtained a country again, respectively. And here we are again, shall we stand idly by?? With the outreach of Armenians visiting and building relations with Israel, Armenia has proven to be a good ally even though, through ignorance, we are on Azerbaijan’s arms vendor list.

Armenia is a thriving, ambitious young country whose numbers would have been exponentially greater had not their Genocide like for us, had our Holocaust not happened. Our histories’ similar, our plights’ alike and our conflicts unresolved… There have been many advocates: Rivlin, pre-presidential days was a strong proponent for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, Edelstein has gone before the Knesset earlier this year, Israeli Greek Orthodox priest Naddaf is outspoken for this cause, in Nov Sassounian, an American Armenian editor brought forth a compassionate, logical plea, of course for years the Israeli Armenian Community has attempted to reach ear that will not hear, last week a delegation from Armenian visited Israel and finally we the people of Israel, stand up and ask for justice. Israel must put politics aside once and for all. Let us stand with the Armenian people whose motto is Never Forget and say Never Again our motto. The time is now to open the door and recognize the Armenian Genocide.

I implore the Israel government to take this opportunity and make history. Stop being embarrassed of what we haven’t done and make a wrong right and also to stipulate to Turkey in their time of desperation, that Turkey needs to confess what the Ottoman Empire committed against the Armenians. Let’s take it all the way…. Answer the door let the screaming blood of the dead be put to rest. The doors are knocking…. open them both and restore the dignity of the dead and demand from Turkey justice as we are a light to the nations. Why? Because righteousness and wisdom is our path…

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[podcast] Duma: The War From Within

Shai and I discuss the current investigation concerning the Duma arson in the Northern Shomron and why this is a landmark civil rights case involving torture and human rights violations in connection with the alleged suspects. We also touch on the tension between statism and individual liberties in Israel and the need to put an emphasis on individual liberties despite the security situation and the desire for the system to preserve itself.

Sources:

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Putin Has the Israel Weapon

The question isn’t whether Putin helped Israel kill Samir Kuntar, it is why Russia aided Israel in attacking one of the leaders of Iran’s terror squads against Israel. Putin had to be in on the operation since the deconfliction mechanism between Israel and Russia force compliance on both parties in air sorties over either Northern Israel or Southern Syria.

Analysts and pundits across geopolitical divide have wondered the extent of Russian and Israeli partnership. Some passed it off as a necessary evil on the part of Israel and others hailed the change in strategic trajectory for Israel.  It has not been clear.  The Kuntar assassination clears most of the guessing up.  If there was a doubt that Israel and Russia were not developing a robust partnership that is now gone. Once more the rapprochement between Israel and Turkey has not had any effect on this growing partnership between Russia and Israel.

Putin Does Not Trust Iran

Putin has never ascribed to Iran’s goal of establishing a Persian controlled Middle East. Russia would like to be in control of the region in as far as the oil and its military bases are concerned. A strong Iran provides Putin with a serious challenge down the road.  The problem is that Putin needs Iranian troops and ground support in Syria so he does not repeat the Russian mistakes of Afghanistan in the 1980s.  Right now because he has placed very little Russian soldiers into the fray, he is receiving huge support from the Russian citizenry.

While Russia needs Iranian troops, it does not need Iran exploiting the partnership in hopes it gets an edge up on Israel.  Putin knows a cornered Israel could create a far bigger problem.  Russia is also receiving advanced intelligence from Israel on ISIS positions.

Israel is Checking Iran for Putin

Putin, always the master chess player allows Israel to check Iran’s positions so he himself will not have to do it. The trade is that Israel allows Putin use of its airspace from time to time and offers intelligence for Russia’s campaign. Essentially, Israel is acting as Putin’s short leash on Iran. Iran has no choice but to follow along.  After all it is piggy backing on Russia’s involvement in saving Assad and pushing back on Turkey.

In an odd way Israel and Iran serve as both tactical spokes in Putin’s regional strategy as well as balancers between them.  Putin may not be interested in any grand peace deal the way Foggy Bottom has always been, but Putin does want regional order as he brings the Russians back into a global leadership position. If reports are to be believed Iran has significantly scaled down their ground involvement in Syria from it once was. Iran may have been helpful and still may be, but only as a tool to Putin’s grand strategy and nothing more. Checking Iran by way of Israel seems the best way to assuring that.

 

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Turkey and Israel, Friends Again?

We live in a strange world.  As the American uni-polar world collapses, alliances are born and others fall away. Partnerships are formed based on near term survival, without consideration for the long view.  Turkey, by all estimates was heading into the dustbin.  Surrounded by Russia to the North East, Iran to the South East, and a resurgent Assad to the South with Russia behind him, Erdogan, the Sultan not to be was cornered. Russia supplies most of Turkey’s gas. Without Russia’s gas, Turkey would collapse due to a lack of energy.

Israel an Energy Leader

Israel rushed through the gas deal this week, not only because of the new energy alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, but because of the secret deal now reveled to the World. Turkey would be given a life line and pulled out of its corner and Israel would act as the senior partner in the relationship.

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Leadership requires making decisions even if they are unpopular. Erdogan is not a nice guy.  He slaughters Kurds and denies his country’s role in the Armenian genocide, but Israel is in a different place now and chose to offer Turkey the lifeline it needed.

Two Viewpoints

There have been two pervading viewpoints int he defense establishment in Israel.  One is to work with Russia and embrace Assad in order to return stability to the Middle East. The other is to build relationships that will counteract Iran no matter the cost of stability and Russian tactical considerations.  The Turkey move, means the latter won out.

What of Greece and Cyprus?

Greece and Cyprus need Israel far more than it needs them.  The returning to ties with Turkey is a cold one, brought on by Jerusalem’s concern about Iran and Syria coming out of this war in a clearly unstoppable manner. Strengthening Turkey in a non-emotional way provides a push back to the Shiites. None of the maneuvers we are seeing are the products of long term strategic planning.  The post USA Middle East is too new to learn where the lines will be drawn.

Out of Putin’s own Playbook

Israel agreed to the return of relations with Turkey only because of the gas pipeline Turkey is willing to lay for Israel. By becoming the major gas provider to Turkey Israel holds the upper hand in the relationship. Mess with Israel and Turkey loses its gas. This has been Putin’s strategy with Europe for years.

A Dangerous Path

With Russia preparing for a possible war with Turkey and their tactical partnership with Iran, throwing a way out to Erdogan puts us in an uncomfortable situation. Putin clearly views Erdogan as enemy number one.  Israel helping him does not bode well for our relationship with Russia.  It could be there was never anything to talk about with Putin and that Jerusalem decided to move forward before Putin and company decided to put the Jewish Nation into a more uncomfortable spot. Whatever the reason, the new gas partnership puts Israel on the side of those counties Putin dislikes. In the coming weeks Israel will have to go out of its way to play down the deal or potentially face the wrath of Putin and his forces.