The Conflict in Israel and The Middle East

July 22, 2016

Palestinian Authority is Teaming up With Sudan, Will it Matter for Israel?

So the best the Palestinian Authority can do on the African continent is to partner with Sudan? Somehow partering with a genocidal radical Islamic regime does not sound like a good PR move. Then again, Abbas had very little to choose from. Rwanda, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and now Guinea have all pushed forward their relations with Israel. This is besides Ghana who has been a stable partner of Israel since th 1990’s. In the coming weeks Togo too will be publicly reaching out and moving forward with Israeli partnerships.

The irony of a known terrorist turned politician in the form of Abbas running to Sudan, a terrorist state that still practices slavery, almost guarantees that the PA has given itself no chance to make friends in the Sub-Sahara. The continent is increasingly being split between Arab or Arabized forces in the northern countries and those of Christian background to the south. At the end of the day, Israel’s growing allies in the Sub Sahara have grown to detest Islamists, especially ones they have had to deal in their immediate proximity.

So does the PA’s cozying to Sudan have any ramifications for Israel? The answer is not many. Sudan and countries of similar dispositions are never going to be swayed to partner with Israel. The fact that the PA decided to partner with Sudan should put to rest their claim of being a peaceful, liberty loving “state”. By running to a known terrorist regime, Abbas has little room to find willing partners. One place he can probably run to is Buhari’s Nigeria, which is increasingly becoming more and more radicalized at the expense of the Igbo and other tribes in Biafra.

When all is finished Sub Sahara Africa much rather build a partnership with a state that can offer them progress. The PA represents a rewind to the years when Africa floundered under autocratic despots too willing to trade their people’s future in order to enrich themselves.

July 21, 2016

Turkish Unrest Threatens Oil Shipments From Key Israeli Partners

Turkey is more than just the second strongest NATO member besides the USA. It is one of the world’s largest crude hubs. With three pipelines running through the country and the Turkish straits made up of the Dardanelles, the Sea of Marmara, and the Bosphorus, millions of barrels of oil transverse Turkey daily.

To get an idea about the effect of the failed coup had on oil prices, crude futures rose 1.5 percent on Friday as the news of the coup became public. Oil prices have settled back down to $44 a barrel from $46 on the July 18th, but the continued counter-purge and growing friction between Erdogan and the other NATO members now cements and ongoing risk for oil shipping.

As of today, shipping has remained normal, but this can change quickly depending on how the events unfold.

“Any uncertainty in that region almost invariably results in an increase in oil prices, particularly given the interaction between what goes on in Turkey with Syria,” Craig Pirrong, director of the Global Energy Management Institute at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business, said Friday in a phone interview with GCaptain. “Analysts will be looking for whether there’s a “spillover to the major oil producers,” Pirrong continued.

Ceyhan is Key

Ceyhan, a city of 157 thousand in Southern Turkey is the terminus for three oil pipelines that run through Turkey. It is also the destination point to and from the Turkish Straits for oil tankers. Although the unrest seems to be dying down, any future turmoil in Turkey or the border region with Syria has the potential of affecting this point. If Erdogan goes after the Kurds in southern Turkey and Northern Syria, Ceyhan becomes the prime target of Kurdish counter attacks.

However, there is one thing that protects Ceyhan from potential Kurdish retaliatory attacks, and that is it too is being used by the Kurds of Iraq to ship their oil out below the radar by way of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. One of the biggest recipients of Kurdish oil is none other than Israel, which is why Israel’s interest in renewed diplomatic relations with Turkey has become key to ensuring Kurdish oil flows to Israel.

The Ceyhan-Iran Connection

Israel has gone out of its way to empower and build overt and covert relationships with regional players in order to block Iran’s drive westward. The Kurds have always been a moderating and strong force in northern Iraq and have helped with degrading ISIS as well as helping to block Iran.

Another regional partner of Israel is Azerbaijan. The country is both a nemesis of Iran and sits on the strategic Caspian sea. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline stretches 1,768 kilometres (1,099 mi) bringing oil from Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli in the Caspian sea to shipping routes in the Mediterranean Sea. The oil field produces 710,000 barrels a day. Although it is lower than its peak of 810,000 daily barrels it is still vital for Azerbaijan.

Israel has a strategic interest in making sure Ceyhan is untouched and the free flow of oil from both of its allies reach their destination.

July 20, 2016

Another Duma Fire: Blaming the Jews Again?

Yesterday another fire broke out in a home in the Duma village. This is the same village where an arson attack occurred a year ago and led to the arrest of two Jewish youths who were later charged for the attack. However, as many have speculated, it seems there is an internal feud between clans living in the village that may be responsible for firebombings in the last year including the one from yesterday.

The house-fire on July 31, 2015 in Duma resulted in the death of two parents and their 18-month-old child from the Dawabsha family clan. At least 6 arson attacks occurred in Duma over the last year and investigations show that the Dawabsha clan is to blame for them. A fire was reported in March but authorities said the cause was not clear.

What is clear is that Israeli authorities rushed to accuse alleged Jewish extremists in the arson attack last year. Those arrested were subject to brutal interrogation methods and were forced to admit to the arson attack. Authorities continued to arrest other Jews that were in no way affiliated with the case in Duma.

Of course, Palestinian media right away tried to put the blame of yesterday’s arson on Jews. However, all signs point to another Dawabsha clan attack. Let’s hope these blood libels against Jews don’t lead to another witch hunt against “Jewish extremists.”

July 20, 2016July 20, 2016

Without Amona the Government Will Fall

“It’s unthinkable to simply evacuate entire towns for judicial reasons,” Infrastructure Minster Yuval Steinitz was quoted as saying on Monday in relation to Amona and its impending destruction.

Amona has become a red line for many in the government and a litmus test for both Avigdor Lieberman and Bibi Netanyahu. The issue is far more beuroctratic than ideological. Most of the country still remembers what occurred there when the former Prime Minister Olmert essentially used what amounted to an incredible use of force to ensure the destruction of several houses there. What transpired there even disgusted those on the left.

The country has little interest going back to those times and move wants to move forward. It is clear Steinitz is floating this idea in order to pave way for a government decision to legalize Amona. He knows as well as the Prime Minister that without Amona the government will fall.

Uprooting Amona will confirm a disconenct between the leadership of Likud and the party’s rank and file, possibly splitting the party. It will also destroy Lieberman’s persona as a populist leader of the rightwing, damaging his ability to rebuild his brand.

Admidst the growing storm that threatens to tear apart the government, Yuval Steinitz has taken th lead in finding a logical solution. “My proposal says something simple – logic must prevail. There’s a difference between one of two houses and a whole neighborhood, and there’s a difference between temporary living on the land and a community that has been built up over many years when someone suddenly challenges the ownership.”

Steinitz has a point. Amona, isn’t growing simply to make a statement, but it is a thriving community. In most civil societies, absentee land claims are settled through monetary comensation, but because Amona is over the green line, the Supreme Court views the community through the lense of politics rather than ruling on legitimate government policy. Then again, Israel’s supreme court has always had a habit of ruling against communities in Judea and Samaria.

In a government that has at least one minister accused of building without approval, the hypocrisy of that same government being forced to destroy a whole comunity defies logic. Then again, rightwing governments in Israel have consistantly found themselves hamstrung by a leftist court system, a hold out from the Mapai era that imposes its will on everything and anything in Israel.

What About the Absentee Land Law of 1950?

For days now rumors have been floating that Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman was going to use an already established law enacted in 1950 connected to absentee land ownership. As of today, that proposal has been taken off the table for fear that the supreme court would not only strike it down, but use it against the right in the future. Attorney General Mandebilt has insisted the only solution is to move the community by rebuilding it.

If Amona goes, the government goes, and yet the entrenched left is forcing Bibi’s hand and pushing him to destroy his own government. Yet, somehow Bibi seems capable of finaly turning the tables on an overinvolved and activist court. If he truly wats to do so, Amona is the right place to start.

July 20, 2016

Is Israel Prepared for a New Lebanon War?

Yesterday marked ten years since the Second Lebanon War with Israel. The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of the Knesset marked the day with a debate on the lessons learned from the war to see if the home front is prepared for a possible future conflict.

While the chief of staff for the IDF`s Home Front Command, Brig. Gen. Dedi Simchi, says of the 257 local authorities, 235 will be able to handle – with varying degrees of success – a future emergency situation, and that an “excellent culture of emergency has developed in the national home front,” several MK’s argued that a lot of work is needed to prepare for a future conflict.

MK Mordhay Yogev (Habayit Hayehudi) said the government must budget plans for fortification and the evacuation of civilians, if needed. “A war can – God forbid – leave us with thousands of people killed and damage to infrastructure to such an extent that we will have a hard time recuperating,” he stated. ”If we will not invest five billion shekels in fortification, we will sustain 50 billion shekel`s worth of damage.”

MK Eyal Ben-Reuven (Zionist Camp) said a conflict in the north ”is almost inevitable” but the region ”is not prepared for a war with 1,200-1,500 missiles falling daily.”

Committee Chairman Dichter lauded the Home Front Command for drawing the necessary conclusions immediately after the war, and said the issue of the local authorities` preparedness for a future conflict must be addressed.

”We must not leave question marks that will be exposed only in an emergency,” he said, adding that ”Hezbollah`s current [dire situation] gives us time to prepare the north, and this must guide us from an operational perspective.”

Considering the recent Hezbollah drone that penetrated Israel’s airspace in the Golan and talks in the Knesset of the dangers Israel faces from its neighbors, it is an opportune time for Israel to step up its security measures for the civilian population.