Category: Borders

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For Saudi Arabia, the Yemen War is Ground Zero for its Fight Against Iran

With the war in Yemen, led by Saudi Arabia and coalition of Sunni states against the Houthis, Iranian proxy heating up, the Houthi led military fired a balistic missile over Riyadh on Saturday night. This marked a serious turn in the war.

The missile, producd in Iran, would have no doubt only been fired only with Iran’s permission, which seems to be more comfortable displaying its hegemonic aspirations since its victorious battle in Kirkuk. For Saudi Arabia, the missile is a sort of wake up call on just how serious the Iranian threat is. It also proves that the Iranians, true to their word are not about to stop and rest a bit.

Turki al-Maliki, spokesperson for the coalition forces, said: “The missiles Houthis targeted the Saudi Arabia was produced by Iran, they are not involved in the ammunition of Yemen army.”

Maliki continued: “Houthis couldn’t increase the tension without the support by the Iran regime.”

Controlling Yemen is key to the Iranian strategy and equal in value than building a land bridge from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea; although the latter is usually mentioned far more by pundits. Taking full control of Yemen means that the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden will fall into Iran’s hand. 3.8 million barrels of oil a day pass through the Bab el-Mandab chokepoint on Yemen’s southwestern coast.

More than that, taking Yemen completely would supplant on Saudi Arabia’s doorstep, giving it the capability to destroy the Kingdom.

This is why the missile over Riyadh that was taken down by an American Patriot Missile is a serious escalation. Given the fact that Iran is on the move under Russian protection across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia views Yemen as the last chance to stop them before the Kingdom has to take them on the Iranian forces directly.

With the rise of Prince Salman and his purging of his competition in the Saudi Kingdom, the Saudi royals may be forced to rally around the Crown Prince despite his controversial moves.  Embroiling the Kingdom in the Yemen war had always been viewed as a misstep by the young prince, but with Iran using it as a spring board to corner the Saudi Kingdom, Salman’s intereference may have been far more cunning than those who doubted it believed.

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Iran on the Move, But Does it Fit Into Putin’s Agenda for the Middle East?

The fall of Kirkuk to the joint Iraq-Iran army last week may very well be seen in years to come as a gret turning point in Middle Eastern and World history. The collective punditry is that Iran chalked up a big win in its drive for Middle Eastern hegemony.  This is correct, yet the Iranian occupation of Kirkuk, a historically Kurdish city may be the very thing which begins to undo the Shiite advancement in the fertile crescent.

Up until now, there has been a very tight working relationship between the Russian military and the Iranians.  The two armies have consistantly worked together in turning around the Syrian Civil War.  This has allowed Iran to sweep across the Middle East to within 20km of the Golan Heights, a turn of events that has made Israel very nervous.

Yet, the occupation of Kirkuk has alarmed the Russians, as has Iran’s clear movement of military personel and equipment to the frontlines on Israel’s Golan.  Russian president Vladamir Putin needed Iranian ground forces to help crush ISIS and the Syrian rebel groups, but now that the bulk of the war is finished, Putin would like to be viewed as the great statesmand peace maker not destablizer. The Iranians have different plans.  They would like to use their newfound stature to corner both the Kurds and Israel and finish them off.

However, the Iranian advancement towards Erbil seems to have shaken Putin from his daze. For the Iranians, there is no difference between Iraq and Syria. The problem is that Russia does not view the Kurds with any sort of animosity and has gone out of the way to bring the Kurds into their orbit.  Russia has invested billions into Kurdish infrastructure and oil and gas development.  Putin has no interest in seeing these contracts destroyed.

In the coming weeks, Iran will continue to make gains, but a wary Puting will allow mor Israeli military flights over Syrian territory. Putin’s goals are to create the appearance of Russian military might in the face of the West as well as building a reputation as the great stablizer.

This his goal in the Middle East.  To become the address for those in dispute an then only Putin can ensure a stable Middle East.

 

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IRAN ON THE MARCH: Trump’s Kurdistan Folly Directly Impacts Israel

The going line coming from Washington over the the joint operation carried out by the Iranian Al Quds Force, Hashd Al-Shaab, and of course the Iraqi Army against Kirkuk, a Kurdish majority city is that this was a minor border disagreement between the Federal authority in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government sitting in Erbil.

The repeated line that there was little fighting is simply not accurate. Our sources on the ground have reported intense fighting with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Al Quds Force against factions connected to the Kurds.

Already the Kurdish Peshmerga is withdrawing further North and have withdrawn from cities South of Erbil.

No mention of major Iranian inovolvement can be heard from the Pentagon’s lips. This allowance of major Iranian military movement into Kirkuk and if the Iraqi PM can be believed into the capital of the KRG itself Erbil, then the Trump administration can be rightly seen as a paper tiger , willing to scream and threaten Iran without putting its foot down when the moment arrives to do so.

If the Iran-Iraq army is allowed to use American weapons at will and essentially wreck havoc in the most stable area of what is left of Iraq, then how can the White House be believed on the rest of its commitments in the region.

How Does this Affect Israel?

Israel is dealing with the realization that it is fast becoming surrounded by a Russian protected Shiite alliance made up of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.  Kurdistan’s stability and friendliness to Israel has been known both behind scenes and in recent years out in the open.

The lack of responce by the administration as well as nuanced statements backing the false notion of Federalism within an already divided Iraq essentially provides Iran with the motivation to continue to move to control the region and ultimately threaten Israel, without fear of US response.

President Trump is now seen as weak by the Shiites who are taking advantage of an administration that is more worried about its bark than its bite.

Israel now knows it cannot rely on comments alone from the administration when it comes to stopping Iran, but must demand concrete actions. By allowing the lightening quick occupation of Kirkuk by Iran-Iraq, Trump unknowlingly has set the stage for the very unravelling of his new Iran policy.

The President and his team can still rectify the situation by demanding the Iraqi army hand over all American equipment it is using in breach of its agreement with the US military.  If Baghdad resists, the US military would be justified in bombing the tanks and humvees in the assaults on the Kurds. Furthermore, the US can still now provide air support to enable the Kurdish Peshmerga to even the odds against the Iran-Iraq army.

The longer the President and the Administration in Washington ignores the situation, the faster Iran will move to create an irreversible control over the entire region, which will ultimately isolate Israel.

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Israel Hits Back at Syria after Regime Opens Fire on Israeli Aircraft

Syrian surface to air batteries opened fire on a Israeli jets as they were conducting a routine flight over Southern Lebanon earlier today.

The aircraft returned fire destroying the missile battery.  With the region inching towards war, the Syrian regime may be trying to heat up Israel’s Northern border. With rocket attacks from the Sinai last night and today’s Northern incident, Syria and Hezbollah appear to be ready to push towards Israel as the Syrian conflict winds down.

Given the events between Kurdistan and the Iranian affiliated Iraqi army, Iran’s proxies appear to have a ree light to mke a move against Israel.

 

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Battle Over Kirkuk Begins, Turkey Supports Baghdad Against Kurdistan

The battle over Kirkuk has officially begun as Iranian and Iraqi forces enter the city of Kirkuk with US weapons gifted to Iraq for use only on ISIS. The Kurdish Peshmerga under threat from A1-Abrams Tanks now in the hands of the Hashd Al-Shaabi (an Iranian backed militia in Iraq) fell back to the city’s center.

Kurdish casuties have already been reported by Kurdistan 24 and Rudaw.

Peshmerga reinforcements have been sent from Erbil to push out the Iran-Iraq army now occupying Kirkuk and the oil rich region around it.

In a breaking development Turkey has publicly backed Baghdad over the Kirkuk crisis in a carefully worded statement:

“We are closely following the steps the Iraqi government is taking to establish its constitutional sovereignty over Kirkuk, the homeland of our Turkmen kin throughout history. Turkey will side with the Iraqi government in taking steps to ensure lasting peace and stability in the country,” the statement read.

Turkey has reportedly built up their defenses against the Syrian Kurds in preparation of their own assault against the Kurdish region in Syria.

Will US Back the Kurds?

Given that Baghdad, after years of US support has openly handed over A1-Abrams to America’s number one enemy, Iran, as well as after years of training with the US has now openly switched allegience to Tehran, US policy must change.  In order to hold Iran back the Kurds must be seen as the frontlines in stopping Persian expansion.

Given the fast pace of events in and around Kirkuk, the US military leadership has been reported to be meeting with Kurdish leadership in Erbil.  This meeting is a foreshadowing of preperations for a push back against the onlsaught by the merged Iran-Iraq army.