Former UN Ambassador John Bolton gave an excellent interview on Sunday concerning the spreading protests in Iran.
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While Putin and Bibi Speak, Syria Installs Latest Russian Air Defense System Near Damascus
According to the Israeli media, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Russian President Vladamir Putin held a phone conversation in order to ensure that Russia was kept abrest of Israel’s security needs despite the latter being a part of the Iranian axis. These types of conversations have been going on for over a year in order to minimize friction between the IDF/IAF and Russian forces in Syria.
These conversations have been promoted to the Israeli public as a way assuage fears by claiming to use Russia to help mitigate the forward movement of the Iranian axis towards the border with Israel. The challenge with this sort of thinking is that we see that after the fall of Beit Jinn, Russia has done little to keep Iran and Hezbollah outside the deconfliction zone.
The other pervading theory is that Israel has a deal worked out with Putin that the IAF is allowed to attack Hezbollah, Iranian, or even Syrian positions within Syria if they are deemed a threat to Israel. Yesterday’s installation of the Russian S-125 Pechora Batteries (a Soviet-designed system originally built in the 1960s) in the Marj Ruhayyil airbase located south of Damascus puts to rest this line of thinking.
According to AMN the modernized variant in question is reportedly the M2 version of the S-125 Pechora, “which in addition to having an improved kill probability record, is technically capable of tracking and intercepting low-flying cruise missiles.”
Why is this important? The assumption has been that the IAF would be able to attack Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian forces with impunity. The Russians clearly have other ideas.
Does Putin Want to Destroy Israel?
Not at all. He wants to use the Iranian axis he has been tacitly covering for to hold Israel at bay and force its government to turn to him for its needs. While the situation is not at that point yet, it is rapidly approaching. The Trump administration of course understands this and appears to be ready to back up Israel. The Jerusalem announcement was as much part of Trump’s calculus in relation to Russia’s moves as it was a declaration of support that flowed from his own beliefs. For Trump the two aligned.
With more and more IDF forces quietly being moved North, the stakes are high on both sides of the Golan. Russia’s play at attempting to militarily isolate Israel by using forces hellbent on its destruction is a gamble that could trigger a far wider war.
As I currently sit in my house South of Jerusalem, there is a storm rising on Israel’s Northern border. The storm is the Iranian axis made up of the Syrian regime, Hezbollah, and Iranian special forces. This grouping is now a mere 4km from the Israeli Golan, an unthinkable situation just a few months ago.
It has become increasingly clear that the most potent menace out of the three antagonists is the Lebanese Hezbollah. What was once just an Iranian proxy, has become a battle heartened army over the last few years of fighting to save Assad’s regime in Syria. The Hezbollah now boasts over 100 thousand rockets aimed at Israel. Their armed forces are not only situated North of Israel, but now buttress the Hermon, a strategic mountain that overlooks Israel’s Hula valley and Northern coastal areas.
How did this happen? How did Hezbollah become such a threat to Israel? Now, before I write further, I want to make it clear that the Israeli government going back to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak who hastily pulled out of Southern Lebanon, thus ceding control to Hezbollah deserves some of the initial blame for Israel’s current strategic situation.
Yet, it is becoming apparent thanks to Josh Meyer at Politico that the Obama administration had willfully shut down and blocked key parts of Project Cassandra, a secret program started in 2008 under the auspices of the DEA to target Hezbollah’s billion-dollar criminal enterprise and in many cases block it. Hezbollah’s financing has been critical in allowing what was once just a terrorist organization to grow into a political movement and formidable army.
Meyer’s piece, which has become the focus of a cross-section of politicians and pundits since its publication on the 18th of December, essentially blew the lid off the fallout of Obama’s Iranian appeasement policy.
“In its determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, the Obama administration derailed an ambitious law enforcement campaign targeting drug trafficking by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, even as it was funneling cocaine into the United States, according to a POLITICO investigation,” Meyer starts his article.
“The Obama administration derailed an ambitious law enforcement campaign targeting drug trafficking by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah.”
Meyer’s article is thick with investigative research. Despite push back by former Obama and Clinton officials, it is hard to dismiss his findings. There is no need to reproduce in this article what Meyer wove together over at Politico.
What is important to understand is that Israel’s most determined enemy was allowed to grow and build its army and weaponry with full knowledge and acceptance by former President Obama. This is not a small matter and the decision to allow this was clearly not taken without the understanding that doing so would essentially put Israel into mortal danger as it may very well be now.
The Iranian axis may still have captured Beit Jinn this past week, but its ability to inflict blow after blow against Israel would not be as potent if it were not for Obama’s reckless determination to reach a deal with the Iranian regime on the back of Israel’s safety.
The coming war between Israel and its mortal enemies is a direct consequence of the policy decisions in the Obama administration. Without the chaos of the Arab spring, which Obama championed, nor the overtures to the Iranian regime, by the President himself, Iran would have never been able to reach to the Levant. Iran made the progress it did in large part due to the help of a well-financed Hezbollah.
The coming weeks are critical for Israel as war seems to be a foregone conclusion. It is important that the truth be uncovered concerning the Obama administration’s role in railroading a program that was designed to weaken one of Israel’s and the USA’s most diehard enemies. It is also imortant that writer’s like Josh Meyer are championed instead of attacked as is happening now by public agents close to the Obama and Clinton teams.
In a statement sure to raise tensions between Russia and the USA, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on Thursday that US forces must leave all of Syria.
“Speaking to Interfax news agency on Thursday, Lavrov stated that the UN Security Council has not approved the work of the United States and its coalition in Syria, nor has been invited by the Syrian legitimate government.”
Of course, pulling out of Syria is not an option for the US. With major operations against ISIS underway by the Kurdish majority SDF in the North and the US forces at Al-Tanf crossing there to protect Jordan from militants, the idea that the US will just up and leave is a non-starter.
Is Assad Legitimate?
Russia has for a while insisted that any long term presence of foreign troops must be in accordance with the legitimate government of Syria. For Russia this means Assad. The problem with this line of reasoning is that large areas of Syria are clearly not under his control. This is does not refer to pockets of ISIS or Jihadists, but rather indigenous people such as the Kurds of Rojava or Arab Sunnis in the North. These groups along with ethnic Turkmen had been kept down by the minority Allawite regime for decades.
It would seem that any decisions on who gets to stay in Syria should be decided by the most democratic elements in the country. That is, if you consider Syria an actual country at this point. Syria, like many of its Arab counterparts across the Middle East are artificial creations that sprang into being after World War One. given the fact, that Syria has been ruled by dictators for a good part of the last 100 years, it make sense why Russia would view this as trait to determine who is legitimate. Afterall, Russia is currently ruled by an ex KGB chief who snuffs out opposition. This point of commonality between Russia’s Putin and Syria’s Assad would be reason enough for the two to work together, but the truth is Russia doesn’t care about legitimacy just control over Syria in order to press against the West and drain energy from it while Russia pushes against Eastern Europe.
How Does this Affect Israel?
With the US not leaving Syria anytime soon and Russia digging in its heels throughout the country, the stage is set for a serious confrontation between the two super powers’ proxies. Iran-Syria-Hezbollah forces will be used by Russia to push against the US proxies of Israel and the SDF. This will be done under the Russian protective umbrella and threatens to spill out into a far greater war.
In the weeks ahead Israel and the Syrian regime will move beyond tit for tats and go directly against one another while the big powers push from behind.
Bibi Warns Iran and Hamas Not to Mess With IAF’s ‘Tremendous Firepower’
“The air force is as its peak today, with the best tools, technologies, planes and pilots in the world. With defensive and offensive capabilities and tremendous firepower, the air force has the ability to reach short distances and faraway destinations as required,” the Prime Minister said at an Israel Air Force Flight Academy graduation ceremony at the Hatzerim Air Base outside Beersheba.
Thirty-six officers, received their pilots wings after completing the three-year pilots course on Wednesday. The graduation ceremony was attended by Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot and IAF Commander Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin.
“We are an island in this stormy region… “
“We are meeting major challenges in the north, in the south and in the east. On all the fronts there are centers and branches of radical Islam that have already caused a heavy calamity in our region, but nowt to our country. We are an island in this stormy region and have a clear policy of protecting our security,” the prime minister said.
Israel has carried out at least 100 attacks targeting Hezbollah terrorists, weapons convoys and infrastructure in Syria since January 2013. Tens of other strikes have not yet been confirmed by Israel, but include a recent strike on an Iranian base outside Syria’s capital Damascus.