Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Pompeo, Iran, and the Coming Middle Eastern Storm

With thirteen days left until Trump announces his intention to either certify or decertify the Iranian nuclear deal, an eerie calm has engulfed the Middle East.  This calm has been broken only by the new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s whirlwind tour of the region shortly after being confirmed by the Senate.

With no one knowing what Trump will decide on May 12th, the region understands that either decision could in fact draw the Middle East into an intractable conflict. This has been clear given Russia’s stepped up arms shipments to Syria after Trump’s bombing of Syrian chemical weapon’s sites.   Add in Iran’s bellicose statements about attacking the US if they decertify the JCPOA and the tension is palpable.

President Trump is clearly in a bind.  If he decertifies the nuclear deal he will most surely be propelling the Middle East into a conflict of unknown directions.  If he recertifies the deal, he will buy the USA and the world only a short time.  Iran thrives off weakness and if Trump decides to stay in the deal, the Iranians will see that as a go ahead to bolster their positions in Syria. Israel, Saudi, Arabia, and other Gulf States will have a choice to make: Go it alone now and risk being embroiled in a war against Iran or wait and most likely face an even stronger enemy.

Picking Pompeo for Secretary of State is a message that Trump is willing to put his foot down when necessary.  With the growing Iranian menace drawing closer to Israel, Pompeo’s ascendancy is no accident.  To be clear, the USA appears to be set on drawing down their troop levels in Syria if possible, but this means that greater back up will be given to regional allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Mike Pompeo said this today after meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu:

“We remain deeply concerned about Iran’s dangerous escalation of threats to Israel and the region, and Iran’s ambition to dominate the Middle East remains. The United States is with Israel in this fight, and we strongly support Israel’s sovereign right to defend itself.

Regarding the JCPOA, President Trump’s been pretty clear: this deal is very flawed. He’s directed the administration to try and fix it, and if we can’t fix it, he’s going to withdraw from the deal. It’s pretty straightforward.

Unlike the past administration, President Trump has a comprehensive Iran strategy that is designed to counter the full array of threats emanating from Tehran.

As part of the President’s comprehensive Iran strategy, we are also working to counter the broad set of non-nuclear threats: Iran’s missile systems, its support for Hezbollah, the importation of thousands of proxy fighters into Syria and its assistance to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. We look forward to working closely with strong allies like Israel in countering these threats and rolling back the full range of Iranian malign influence.”

It is apparent that barring a last minute change that Trump is moving towards decertifying the JCPOA, which would collapse the Iranian nuclear accords.  This will put the region on edge.  With an America depleted after fighting several wars over the last 15 years, the Trump administration finds itself having to back up its regional allies.

This was clearly why it was necessary for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to fly immediately to the Middle East even before he had moved into his office.

The drums of war are pounding away.

The storm is approaching.

 

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Three Potential Responses Putin May Take to a USA Attack on Syria

It is safe to assume that the current war of words between President Trump and Putin will escalate to a US attack on Syria.  At this point there is little doubt that Trump will follow through on his threats to attack Assad.  “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and ‘smart!'” Trump Tweeted yesterday.

The real unknown is the Russian response to a NATO backed US attack on Syria.

Putin will likely decide to create as much chaos as possible in responding to the USA.  Three things to expect after the attack (assuming the attack is limited to infrastructure) are the following:

Iranian Attack on Israel: Iran and Hezbollah will be given a green light to attack Israel in both the Galilee and the Golan.  This will draw Israel into a direct war, which has the potential to decimate Israeli population centers and more importantly for Russia to remove Israel from a position of help to the USA.

Overthrow elected governments in Lithuania and Latvia: These two Baltic States have been a  target for Putin’s desire to rebuild the former Russian empire.  Not only can he pull off coups in both places, he can easily move his forces into both countries using Russian separatists in the same way he has in Ukraine’s Donbass. This will be a major blow to both EU and NATO expansion and send the continent into a frantic tailspin.

Support Transnistria: Putin has long thrown soft support behind the Moldovian province of Transnistria, which would give him an anchor on the west of the Black Sea.  This may not be as threatening as overturning Lithuania or Latvia, but the message would be clear.  Russia is on the move and a real threat to European stability.

World War Three?

The above responses assume that Trump’s attack will be limited, but if Trump and his NATO allies or Israel actually take out Assad, then Russia and perhaps China will use that as a reason to threaten the USA and the West in a far more global manner.

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BREAKING: Turkish Forces Begin Assault on Afrin City

Sources on the ground in northern Syria report that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and their terrorist allies the FSA Turkish division have commenced their assault on Afrin City itself.  Afrin City is a Kurdish majority city in the heart of the isolated Kurdish enclave of Afrin.

The TAF reportedly already cut off water to the city last week and has prepared for the assault by surrounding the city.  Turkish President Erdogan has claimed that the Kurds are terrorists that need to be wiped out.  Afrin City has been playing host to hundreds of thousands of refugees whose homes were taken by the TAF during the current operation Olive Branch.  Reports that the TAF and its jihadist allies have been handing out captured Kurdish homes to fighters.

The TAF has been reportedly firing on unarmed civilians and killing defenseless Kurds .

Despite the USA’s military backing the Kurds in their fight against ISIS, as far as Turkey is concerned the Trump administration has surprisingly remained silent.

The Kurdish Regional Council in Iraq has continued to back their bretheren in Syria with the assistant to President Masoud Barzani saying releasing this Tweet:

In the coming days the USA can still step in and save what’s left of Afrin, but that would require Trump to stand up to a fellow NATO ally.

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AFRIN UPDATE: Turkish Planes Bomb City Center, TAF Continues to Shell Civilians

As Turkey shuts down Afrin’s water and begins the seige of the predominately Kurdish city, civilian wounded and dead have been piling up. With Afrin’s Kurdish resistance now decimated one must ask, what the reason is for Turkey to continue to essentially wipe out Kurdish civilians.  Of course a deeper question arises and that is where is the rest of the world and why is it not doing anything about this?

Take a look at the following tweets and videos as Turkey continues to commit ethnic cleansing with a near intent on genocide. Of course Turkey is no stranger to genocide, they wiped out their Armenian minority population of 1.5 million Armenians between 1915 and 1917.

The TAF under Erdogan continues to pound innocent civilians.  The question is: Does anyone care?

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Who Will Stop Turkey’s Land Theft of Kurdish Areas in Afrin?

Multiple reports confirm that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and their allies the militant FSA are closing in on Afrin’s city center.  The Turkish President is so confident about taking Afrin that he boasted “Afrin will fall by the night.”  Turkey’s war on the indigenous Kurds of Afrin has created 700,000 new refugees in a matter of weeks.

More than this Turkey has been moving ethnic Turks and Arabs into villages where Kurds have lived for years.  Kurdistan 24 reported the following:

Redur Xelil, head of foreign relations for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the Kurdish YPG forces are the leading component, said in an online statement that Turkey was conducting a policy of intentional demographic change in Afrin.

“The Turkish government is settling Turkmen and Arab families in the villages of Afrin that it occupied after forcing out its people and is distributing the belongings of the people of Afrin to the new settlers,” he said.

If the claims are true, the actions would amount to ethnic cleansing. Various forms of forcible transfer of populations, especially of ethnic or religious groups, are considered war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

Afrin’s Fall is Blow to the USA and Democratic Syria

Allowing the Kurdish population of Afrin to be permanently displaced is not just a stain on the international community, but can be seen as a blow to America’s ability to hold together its anti-ISIS and post Assad vision of Syria.  The SDF has been trained by the US to defeat ISIS and form the nucleus of a post Assad democratic Syria.  By allowing Afrin to fall to Erdogan’s Turkey, the USA has doomed its ability to call on the Kurds to help push its view of a democratic Syria. It has also allowed a genocidal maniac to continue to gain strength.

The USA’s non-intervention appears to be forcing the Kurds to look elsewhere for help, namely Iran. Without a SDF that is Wetern oriented, the USA risks losing its ability to steer Syria’s future.

Turkish Air Raids May Drag Syria into Afrin Against Them

Ironically the TAF appears to have allowed their determination to finish off the Kurds to possibly be their undoing.  Through their continuous indiscriminate bombing the TAF has managed to not only decimate civilian population centers but has now destroyed checkpoint that was commandeered by pro-Syrian-government Shi’ite militiamen located on the road to Afrin in northwestern Syria.  The airstrikes killed five pro-Syrian mitiamen connected to the Assad regime.  Whether or now this causes Assad to push against Turkey remains to be see, but it is easy to see that where the USA pauses to enter, Syria will decide to do so thus helping the Kurds to shift allegiences to the  Russian backed Shiite axis.

Will Syria now come to Afrin’s aid?