Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Israel Attacks Syria, but the Message Was for Russia and America

Regardless of how hard the Syrian regime controlled media and Russian propagandists spin it, Israel’s attack on an Iranian base just 50km from the Golan Heights is a tactical failure on the part of the Shiite-Russian alliance.  The contours of the attack keep on changing, but one thing is clear, Jerusalem is using its ability to penetrate the vaunted S-400 anti-aircraft system to accomplish three very important things.

The first is holding off Iranian advancement towards its border and permanent entrenchment in Syria.  The Israel’s airforce (IAF) has been able to accomplish this by using Lebanon as a launch area for its F-35 stealth fighters.  For all of the grandiose statements highlighting the impenetrability of the S-400, Israel has punctured its absoluteness when it comes to providing an umbrella of security to Syria.




The attack also sent a message to Russia, that Israel would no longe sit idly by and watch the Iranians utilize the chaos to draw close to Israel.  With or without Russian agreement, Israel is prepared to act over and over again.

The last accomplishment is a message to Washington D.C. that Israel does not need America’s help in countering Iran and can do so on its own.  This is important for two reasons, the most important is that Israel is prepared to forge and independent foreign policy in the region whether Washington is onboard or not.  In conjunction with this Israel prefers working with regional partners such as Saudi Arabia, but its foreign policy visa vi the current civil war and Iranian advancement in Syria does not need to be directly and permanently attached to the Sunni alliances needs a the moment.

 

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WAR DRUMS: Syrian Regime Takes Strategic Hills East of Israel’s Golan Heights

Multiple sources in Syria have confirmed that despite ongoing fighting between the Syrian Regime and Jihadists, the regime has taken the Bardaya Hills just East of the town of Bayat Jin near the Golan Heights.  Assad’s dreaded 4th Armoured Division over ran the Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take the hills.

The area around Beit Jinn has been strategic in giving Israel a wide enough buffer zone to keep Assad and Iran away from the Golan.  With the 4th Division over taking it, this buffer zone is now in peril.




Althought the Prime Minister has threatened to take action, the continual advancement towards the Israeli border by the Syrian Regime and thus Iran appears to have taken Jerusalem by surprise.  At the end of the day, Israel’s security has been continually outsourced to either the Trump administration who has seen the Syrian theatre as a losing quagmire or Russia who does not have Israel’s needs in mind.

Israel is coming to a crossroads and must take the necessary action before the Assad regime and Iran complete it take over of the North East Israeli border area, thus rendering Israel a paper tiger.

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Russia Cuts Out USA By Playing Dealmaker Between Israel and Syria

According to an anonymous Israeli source, Kuwati newspaper Al Jarida reported on Sunday that Israel relayed a message to Putin that the IDF would destroy all Iranian facilities within 40 kilometers of Israel’s Golan Heights.

The message was relayed to Putin directly by Prime Minister Netanyahu.  The Russian President took the liberty to pass the threat in person to President Basher Assad of Syria who surprisingly was said to offer a deal to Israel.

According to Al Jarida the source reported that “Assad said Damascus was ready to discuss the disarmament of the Golan Heights with a zone equalling 40 kilometers from the Golan as well as considering autonomy for the Kurds and Druze.”

Whether Iran ultimately agrees with this or not is still the stumbling block to the deal going through. Yet, it is important to note that it is Russia that has begun to play the vaunted role of “peace” maker in the region.  With the USA playing a soft power role within the behind the scenes shuffling in Saudi Arabia, Israel has had no choice but to reach out to Putin in a last-minute play to stave off a wider war with Iran and Hezbollah.

While there has been much noise that Israel and the Saudis are locked together against Iran and Hezbollah, that is only strategic.  There appears to be tactical differences between the two countries.  Afterall, if Israel were to go after Hezbollah in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, it would potentially suffer far more casualties and damage than the Saudis, whose land mass is far bigger.

Netanyahu’s approach has always been to hold off on what many see as the impending conflict with Iran and rather cut deals when possible.  This is of course a great short-term tactic, but relying on Putin to cut your deal for you may not be the best strategic option.

The unfolding changes across the Middle East are happening at a fast pace.  Giving Assad a pass now will not help once the Sunni-Shiite conflict reaches a far more acute phase. Strategically speaking, Israel is tied to Saudi Arabia and the moves the USA is making and setting place in the region.  The Russian may be seen now as the big winner in the region, but strategically speaking that is only if they are not given an outsized role by others.

The Russian propaganda machine and those online that support it have been spreading a narrative of a collapsing Sunni front under dwindling oil revenues.  While there is some truth to that, one must remember that Sunni Islam represents 90% of Muslims around the world.  Iran was able to achieve its geopolitical successes not because of its advanced military or technology, but rather it road the coattails of bad policy decisions flowing from the previous US administration that created a vacuum in the Middle East.

Russia has been adept at cutting out the USA when necessary, especially in relation to America’s long time allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.  On one hand Russia claims it wants to play the role of peacemaker, yet this is more or less equivalent to a person claiming they want peace, but does so while holding a gun up to the other person’s head.

The lure of ensuring that 40km of Syrian land would be demiliarized may be attractive, but it also will come at a price, which has yet to be made public.

 

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Will Turkey’s Showdown in Afrin Split NATO?

Turkey has always had a complex relationship with the rest of its NATO partners, ut during the current Erdogan period it has grown exceedingly problematic.  With the weakening of US positions across he Middle East and Trump’s reliance on reliable indigenous allies to shoulder the ground burden against ISIS and Iran, Turkey sees its position falter.

The US has spent the past two years strengthening the Kurdish YPG dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northern Syria by offering training, weapons, and logistics. The YPG/SDF are spread across five cantons that buttress Syria’s border with Turkey.

Turkey has always dealt poorly with the 20 million Kurds within their country, but has grown excessively weary about the Kurdish self-determination movements growing in Syria and Iraq.  Both of these movements are being funded more or less by the US, France, and Germany; all of whom double as fellow NATO members to Turkey.

Erdogan has grown despondent about the US role in building a future Kurdistan.

“We are greatly disappointed by the United States not keeping its promises. Many issues that we could have resolved easily…were pushed to a dead-end,” Erdogan said this past week.

Erdogan’s opposition to the US backing of the YPG in Syria is now seen as a threat to the NATO alliance itself. This makes Turkey’s assault on Kurdish positions in Afrin ground zero to see how Trump views Turkey’s future roll in NATO.  Afterall, the prevailing wisdom is that Turkey was behind much of the early growth of ISIS and used the chaos to push back on growing Kurdish autonomy.  With the narrative flipped, Turkey sees Afrin as an important litmus test on how far America will actually go to defend their proxy in Northern Syria.

“We need to cleanse Afrin of the structure there called the YPG terrorist organization,” Erdogan said.

Comparing the YPG to the notorious PKK, a long time enemy dof Turkey, might play well inside Turkey, but it does nothing to heal the divide between Turkey and the West.

Syrian Kurds and Turkey Exchange Fire Over Afrin

Turkish and Kurdish forces exchanged fire across the Afrin-Idlib border on Monday, according to several reports. No casualties have been reported.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed there was an exchange of fire between the sides. The organization stated that the YPG targeted Dar Ta izzah town and Turkey retaliated by launching fire into YPG-controlled Afrin canton.

The Observatory has also been reporting a steady increase of Turkish armored vehicles and soldiers entering the Afrin and Idlib areas as a preparation for a final assault on the Kurdish positions in Afrin. If Afrin were to fall to Turkey it would be the second Kurdish stronghold to fall to either Iran or Turkey in the past one and half months.

With the SDF offering the most stable option for a post war Syria, the US may have to forego its faltering relationship with Islamist Turkey in order to shore up a far more dependable ally it has found with the Kurds. If this happens, it may spell th end of Turkey’s membership in NATO.

 

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Is War Between Israel and Hezbollah Coming?

With reports of increased tension between the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Egypt on one side and Iran and its allies on the other, Saudi Arabia ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.  This comes on the heels of  the sudden resignation of Saad Harari and the Houthis in Yemen launching an Iranian missile at Riyadh.

Riyadh, Safar 20, 1439, November 09, 2017, SPA — Due to the situations in the Republic of Lebanon, the official source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Saudi nationals visiting or residing in Lebanon are asked to leave the country as soon as possible.
The Kingdom advised all citizens not to travel to Lebanon from any other international destinations.
–SPA 

Shortly after this announcement, the Kuwait governmen followed suit.

Given that the only country capable and willing to start a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is Israel, focus has shifted to the IDF, with most assuming that the Saudis and Israel have decided that it is time to push back against the Iranian advancement.

With the Syrian regime advancing steadily towards the Golan DMZ and more and more battle hardened Hezbollah fighters returning to Lebanon, the time seems now for a push to knock them out.  Already Iran senses that a shift from an Israeli-Saudi defensive position may be shifting to an offensive push against the growing Shiite hegemony.

“You are well aware of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s power and position, and powers bigger than you have not been able to do anything against the Iranian nation,” Iranian President Rouhani warned Saudi Arabia. “The US and its allies mobilized all their possibilities and power, but they could do nothing.”

The Sunni-Israel camp is fast approaching its moment of truth in its battle with an ever expanding Shiite hegemony.  This hegemony is the main destablizing force in the Middle East and as both Israel and the Saudis have found out, its intersection is far reaching through out the region.

How soon is a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?  Nothing is set, but what is clear is that the rhetoric between the Saudis and Iranians is fast giving way to action and Israel may be asked to shoot the opening shot.

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For Saudi Arabia, the Yemen War is Ground Zero for its Fight Against Iran

With the war in Yemen, led by Saudi Arabia and coalition of Sunni states against the Houthis, Iranian proxy heating up, the Houthi led military fired a balistic missile over Riyadh on Saturday night. This marked a serious turn in the war.

The missile, producd in Iran, would have no doubt only been fired only with Iran’s permission, which seems to be more comfortable displaying its hegemonic aspirations since its victorious battle in Kirkuk. For Saudi Arabia, the missile is a sort of wake up call on just how serious the Iranian threat is. It also proves that the Iranians, true to their word are not about to stop and rest a bit.

Turki al-Maliki, spokesperson for the coalition forces, said: “The missiles Houthis targeted the Saudi Arabia was produced by Iran, they are not involved in the ammunition of Yemen army.”

Maliki continued: “Houthis couldn’t increase the tension without the support by the Iran regime.”

Controlling Yemen is key to the Iranian strategy and equal in value than building a land bridge from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea; although the latter is usually mentioned far more by pundits. Taking full control of Yemen means that the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden will fall into Iran’s hand. 3.8 million barrels of oil a day pass through the Bab el-Mandab chokepoint on Yemen’s southwestern coast.

More than that, taking Yemen completely would supplant on Saudi Arabia’s doorstep, giving it the capability to destroy the Kingdom.

This is why the missile over Riyadh that was taken down by an American Patriot Missile is a serious escalation. Given the fact that Iran is on the move under Russian protection across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia views Yemen as the last chance to stop them before the Kingdom has to take them on the Iranian forces directly.

With the rise of Prince Salman and his purging of his competition in the Saudi Kingdom, the Saudi royals may be forced to rally around the Crown Prince despite his controversial moves.  Embroiling the Kingdom in the Yemen war had always been viewed as a misstep by the young prince, but with Iran using it as a spring board to corner the Saudi Kingdom, Salman’s intereference may have been far more cunning than those who doubted it believed.

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Putin Shakes Up Syria, by Inviting the Country’s Kurds to Sochi

According to Asharq Al-Awsat Russia has invited Syrian Kurdish authorities to the Congress of the Peoples of Syria.  The congress is a meeting of Syria’s various ethnic groups that is scheduled to be held in Sochi.

The move appears to be part of Putin’s broader strategy of playing the “great balancer” in the Middle East. The Kurdish move achieves three objectives for Russia.

The first is a message to Iran, that Putin is serious about not letting them have free reign in the region. The second objective is the prying of the Kurdish movement away from America.  By offering the Kurds of Syria a seat at the table, Putin wants the KRG in Iraq to know that they to]o can turn to him and achieve better results than relying on the USA who has essentially allowed Iran to cut the Iraqi Kurds off from the outside.

Putin believes that only by playing all sides against one another, can true stability be achieved in the Middle East. With America losing its grip on the region, will Israel now be willing to play ball with  Russia or will Putin find that Israel is the only hold out to his grand plan?

 

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Who Will Stop Iran?

Since President Donald Trump’s famous Iran policy speech, Iran has been on the move, in a sense testing how serious the USA was in stopping their forward march.  They have used the Iraqi military, the USA has financed and trained to occupy Kirkuk and as of this morning crossed over into territory enshrined as Iraqi Kurdistan by even the most ardent Iraqi constitutionalists.

With all of the Kurdish infighting aside, the Kurds are still both America’s and Israel’s most reliable partner in the Middle East and they are the last force capable of blocking an Iranian advance.  The Iraqi military and the Iranian backed PMU have been unlawfully using American weapons against the Kurds. Of course, this has caught the ire of the US Congress who has become vocal in its urging of the White House to come to the aid of the Kurds before it is too late.

The failure to stop Iran now will not only hand the region over to the Iranian Mullahs, it will spell the end of American dominance at a global level. Afterall, if Israel and the Kurds, as well as the Saudis sense that the USA can no longer be counted on to ensure stability in the region, there are others that may be able to.

This is why Israel, Saudi Arabia, and parts of the Kurdish leadership are now in deep discussions with Putin and his military leadership. While this may be a ploy to force the USA to act, it appears to be a recognition of the new reality on the ground.  The only question to the three countries listed above, what will they have to pay to the Russian Bear to ensure it tightens the leash on Iran?

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Iran on the Move, But Does it Fit Into Putin’s Agenda for the Middle East?

The fall of Kirkuk to the joint Iraq-Iran army last week may very well be seen in years to come as a gret turning point in Middle Eastern and World history. The collective punditry is that Iran chalked up a big win in its drive for Middle Eastern hegemony.  This is correct, yet the Iranian occupation of Kirkuk, a historically Kurdish city may be the very thing which begins to undo the Shiite advancement in the fertile crescent.

Up until now, there has been a very tight working relationship between the Russian military and the Iranians.  The two armies have consistantly worked together in turning around the Syrian Civil War.  This has allowed Iran to sweep across the Middle East to within 20km of the Golan Heights, a turn of events that has made Israel very nervous.

Yet, the occupation of Kirkuk has alarmed the Russians, as has Iran’s clear movement of military personel and equipment to the frontlines on Israel’s Golan.  Russian president Vladamir Putin needed Iranian ground forces to help crush ISIS and the Syrian rebel groups, but now that the bulk of the war is finished, Putin would like to be viewed as the great statesmand peace maker not destablizer. The Iranians have different plans.  They would like to use their newfound stature to corner both the Kurds and Israel and finish them off.

However, the Iranian advancement towards Erbil seems to have shaken Putin from his daze. For the Iranians, there is no difference between Iraq and Syria. The problem is that Russia does not view the Kurds with any sort of animosity and has gone out of the way to bring the Kurds into their orbit.  Russia has invested billions into Kurdish infrastructure and oil and gas development.  Putin has no interest in seeing these contracts destroyed.

In the coming weeks, Iran will continue to make gains, but a wary Puting will allow mor Israeli military flights over Syrian territory. Putin’s goals are to create the appearance of Russian military might in the face of the West as well as building a reputation as the great stablizer.

This his goal in the Middle East.  To become the address for those in dispute an then only Putin can ensure a stable Middle East.

 

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IRAN ON THE MARCH: Trump’s Kurdistan Folly Directly Impacts Israel

The going line coming from Washington over the the joint operation carried out by the Iranian Al Quds Force, Hashd Al-Shaab, and of course the Iraqi Army against Kirkuk, a Kurdish majority city is that this was a minor border disagreement between the Federal authority in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government sitting in Erbil.

The repeated line that there was little fighting is simply not accurate. Our sources on the ground have reported intense fighting with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Al Quds Force against factions connected to the Kurds.

Already the Kurdish Peshmerga is withdrawing further North and have withdrawn from cities South of Erbil.

No mention of major Iranian inovolvement can be heard from the Pentagon’s lips. This allowance of major Iranian military movement into Kirkuk and if the Iraqi PM can be believed into the capital of the KRG itself Erbil, then the Trump administration can be rightly seen as a paper tiger , willing to scream and threaten Iran without putting its foot down when the moment arrives to do so.

If the Iran-Iraq army is allowed to use American weapons at will and essentially wreck havoc in the most stable area of what is left of Iraq, then how can the White House be believed on the rest of its commitments in the region.

How Does this Affect Israel?

Israel is dealing with the realization that it is fast becoming surrounded by a Russian protected Shiite alliance made up of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.  Kurdistan’s stability and friendliness to Israel has been known both behind scenes and in recent years out in the open.

The lack of responce by the administration as well as nuanced statements backing the false notion of Federalism within an already divided Iraq essentially provides Iran with the motivation to continue to move to control the region and ultimately threaten Israel, without fear of US response.

President Trump is now seen as weak by the Shiites who are taking advantage of an administration that is more worried about its bark than its bite.

Israel now knows it cannot rely on comments alone from the administration when it comes to stopping Iran, but must demand concrete actions. By allowing the lightening quick occupation of Kirkuk by Iran-Iraq, Trump unknowlingly has set the stage for the very unravelling of his new Iran policy.

The President and his team can still rectify the situation by demanding the Iraqi army hand over all American equipment it is using in breach of its agreement with the US military.  If Baghdad resists, the US military would be justified in bombing the tanks and humvees in the assaults on the Kurds. Furthermore, the US can still now provide air support to enable the Kurdish Peshmerga to even the odds against the Iran-Iraq army.

The longer the President and the Administration in Washington ignores the situation, the faster Iran will move to create an irreversible control over the entire region, which will ultimately isolate Israel.