Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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CHAOS CONTINUES: Both Iran and US Lose Iraq

While the dust still settles in Iraq’s parliamentary elections, it has become clear that they have chosen Muqtada al-Sadr’s list.  Muqtada al-Sadr is the Shiite cleric whose Shiite militia fought against US troops in Iraq and is responsible for thousands of casualties. Sadr’s list is not merely made up of Shiite radicals, but of secularists as well.

It is a mistake to classify Muqtada al-Sadr as a Shiite radical only.  What has become clear to those who have interacted with him is that he is as much an Iraqi nationalist as a Shiite radical.

According to Johnathan Steele who is one of the few Western journalists to have interviewed Sadr, “He [Sadr] even dared to say that once IS had been defeated, he wanted Iranian forces and the Americans to leave Iraq. While he called the Americans ‘invaders’, he was diplomatic enough to call the Iranians “‘friendly forces’ – but his message that both sides should leave Iraq was bold. It went well beyond anything that Abadi or Ameri would say or want.” 

Steele went on to infer the following: “No wonder that Tehran has publicly declared it will not allow Sadr to take power or play the decisive role in the government that will be formed after this weekend’s elections. ‘We will not allow liberals and communists to govern in Iraq,’ Ali Akbar Velayati, the senior adviser on foreign affairs to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in February.”

If Steele is right Iraq’s turmoil may just beginning. Whatever coalition Sadr puts together will have to contend with an Iran that will not be willing to let go of Iraq and at same time the new Iraqi government will of course ask the US to leave.




It is easy to see how this can quickly turn an Iraq that has been torn apart by sectarian conflict to further wade into the abyss, torn between Iran and the US.

Of course, given the fact that Sadr is ultimately a Shiite radical as well as a crafty leader, he may opt to allow Iran to stay just long enough to ensure the US is forced to abandon Iraq.

 

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Will Iraqi Election Results Upend President Trump’s Great Iranian Pushback?

With polls already closed in Iraq, the USA, Israel, and the Gulf countries sit and await to see if Iran can pull victory from a week of continual political and military defeats. If the Iranian backed candidate Hadi al Amiri, the head of the Iranian militia known as the Badr Brigade wins the election it will be a serious blow for the USA and Israel’s efforts in pushing back Iran.

If Hadi al Amiri indeed wins he will more than likely move to push out the US troops in Iraq, thus blunting the Trump administration’s ability to contain Iran. This will actually for the USA to move quickly to find a way it can hold onto to its gains in the Syria theater.

The biggest loser of a potential Hadi al Amiri victory is Saudi Arabia. Not only is the kingdom dealing with Iranian backed Houthi rebels in Yemen that have been firing rockets at Riyadh, but it will need to find some way to contain their growing influence to the Kingdom’s north as well.

Even if Hadi al Amiri loses, no one person will have the ability to forge a single party coalition, which means Iran can influence whatever coalition forms. The growing Iranian control of Iraq is perhaps the most dangerous development in the Middle East.

If Hadi al Amiri wins or is a major player in the next coalition look for the Trump Administration to do the following:

  • Push for Kurdish independence
  • Increased Defense for Saudi Arabia

With Iran still reeling from Israel’s counterattack, an Iraqi win will be used as a reset for the limping ayatollahs.

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Netanyahu Attends Victory Day Celebration in Russia, But Iran is the Real Focus

It may appear strange that Prime Minister Netanyahu would spend time at a Victory Day celebration in Russia less than a day after President Donald Trump took the United States out of the JCPOA otherwise known as the Iranian nuclear deal. With the Israel’s northern border on high alert for Iranian reprisals after the IAF destroyed a cache of weapons last night, Netanyahu could of skipped the Victory Day celebration, even if he was the honored guest.

Yet, in the fast-moving events of the Middle East, attending the celebration is of utmost importance. “I am now leaving for an important meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin,” Prime Minister said. “The meetings between us are always important and this one is especially so. In light of what is currently happening in Syria, it is necessary to ensure the continued coordination between the Russian military.”

Coordination is the key.  With war on the horizon, Israel must ensure that any flare up does not unintentionally kill Russian soldiers on the ground in Syria.  If that happens then Putin will take a far different approach to Israel.

Does Putin Want Iran Pushed Back?

Although it appears Putin is an ally of Iran, historically this has not been so.  With the Mullahs taking advantage of the Syrian chaos to take up forward positions opposite Israel, the Iranian regime has complicated Putin’s strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean.  While not enthused by Trump’s bravado against Iran, Putin has grown impatient with the Shiite movements in the region.  Iran and Russia have diverging interests when it comes to Syria.

Putin’s Syria entanglement has been merely to ensure  he holds onto two key Russian bases in northwestern Syria along with creating a blocking strategy. In the early stage of Russian involvement he needed foot soldiers to consolidate Assad’s regime.  The Iranians and Hezbollah happily volunteered.

Netanyahu’s mission in Russia is twofold.  He must ensure Putin that Israel’s increased attacks on Iranian positions in Syria are meant to push Iran out, not harm Moscow’s interests and second Netanyahu is acting as a sort of intermediary between Presidents Trump and Putin.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following to President Putin before their meeting: “I very much appreciate the opportunity to discuss regional problems with you, the attempts as you put it, to resolve the crises, to lift the threats in a prudent and responsible manner.”

The events of the next few weeks will flow from actions undertaken by Israel and the USA in the next few days as well as the agreements or the lack there of between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Putin.

 

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Iran Takes Lebanon, War is Coming to Israel’s North

Initial results from Lebanon’s first election in 9 years shows Hezbollah, the Iranian backed radical Shiite militant group winning 67 out of the 128 member parliament.  If these results hold then Lebanon will be effectively controlled by Iran, giving it unfettered access to the north of Israel.

With President’s Trump’s announcement on the Iran deal due tomorrow at 2pm EST, the Middle East is on high alert for Iran responding to Israel’s attack on the T-4 base in Syria. With Lebanon now squarely in the hands of Iran, Israel is beginning to openly talk of decisive action in the coming weeks, if not sooner.

Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot of the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday evening, “Efforts by our enemies to strengthen themselves and Iran’s attempts to deepen its hold close to our borders require us to take the initiative, act with determination and strengthen our preparedness and preparedness vis-à-vis any scenario.”

Although there was an assumption that the Iranian leadership would thwink twice before attacking Israel, this is not the case. Iran may have had other plans and would have ideally waited for another two to three years before attacking Israel, but it cannot wait any longer.  The regime in Tehran wants payback for the T-4 attack as well as deflecting the embarressment from the successful operation undertaken by Israel to remove Iran’s nuclear archives.

With Lebanon now controlled by Iran, expect the Mullahs to finally get their chance to take on Israel directly.

 

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The Great Iranian Nuclear Heist

In the annals of spy thrillers, the Israeli Mossad’s achievment, undertaken last year, and revealed last night, in which they were able to infiltrate the central storage area of the Iranian nuclear program, remove a half ton of 110,000 documents and discs, and whisk them back to Israel the same night undetected takes the cake.

Tweets abounded about the operation:

Perhaps more important than the info itself is the sheer unbelievable nature of such an operaton being pulled off by Israeli agents within Iran.  Iran is no kitten.  This is not a heist on a local 7-11.  Pulling this off requires high level assets embedded deep within the regime’s clandestine nuclear program. This operation essentially restores Israel’s otherworldliness when it comes to intelligence gathering.  Essentially no enemy is out of reach.

Furthermore, this will no doubt create fissures in the Iranian regime. These can be exploited by Israel and the US when the inevitable conflict arises.  Of course, Iran can learn from this operation that it may not be as easy as they thought to “destroy the Zionist entity,” but then again enemies like Iran don’t easily learn from their mistakes.