THE COMING WAR: Iran vs. Israel, North Korea vs. America

With America and North Korea rapidly heading towards a direct conflict, the wider ramifications of such a conflict are far-reaching. Given the fact that North Korea built Syria’s now destroyed nuclear weapons program and continues to aid Iran’s nuclear development, the two programs are linked.

In the coming days as Donald Trump sends more and more firepower to the Korean penninsula, the Iranians will most likely stir up trouble against Israel. Although government officials are insisting that the summer time is likely for renewed hostility between Hamas and Israel, North Korea will likely cause a flare up with Iranian proxies much sooner.

The Iranians will turn Hezbollah loose on Israel as a means of drawing the Trump administration away from full out war with North Korea.  With half of their program under attack in the East, Iran will have nothing to lose against Israel.

Winning is Not So Easy

A North Korean war may end in the North’s defeat, but not without Seoul’s devastation and depending on the time frame Japan’s capital in Tokyo suffering from direct missile hits.

Israel too can repel both Hamas and Hezbollah, but if reports of Hezbollah tunneling and Iranians plans to take the Golan are true, the war will likely cascade into something far more dangerous for Israel’s security.

The above assessment does not count Russia and Chinese involvement in either theater as well as Iranian direct attacks on Sunni states in the Gulf.

Whatever the scenario, the next few days have the potential to trigger an all out war in multiple areas around the globe.

[the_ad id=”4744″]

SYRIA CONFLICT: 59 Missiles That Changed the World

With America firing 59 missiles into Syria as retaliation for Assad’s sarin gas bombing of innocent civilians, the genie is now out of the bottle not to be put back in.

President Trump said the following:

“Using a deadly nerve agent, Assad choked out the life of innocent men, women and children. It was a slow and brutal death for so many, even beautiful babies were cruelly murdered in this very barbaric attack. No child of God should ever suffer such horror.

“I ordered a targeted military strike on the airbase in Syria from where the chemical attack was launched. There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons and ignored the urging of the UN Security Council.”

The attack on Syrian targets places the US in direct odds against Russia who has used former President Obama’s lack of an asserted approach in Syria and the rest of the Middle East to enter its forces into Syria, thus prolonging the civil war. If Trump brings American forces into the region again both Russia and Iran are in a far more formidable position than before Obama’s term.

[the_ad id=”4690″]

In response to the attack Russian Prime Minister Medvedev said the US strikes were illegal and were “one step away from military clashes with Russia.” Russia has sent its most advanced Black Sea frigate into the eastern Mediterranean late Friday, putting it into direct confrontation with the same US Navy destroyers which were used to attack Syria.

What’s Next?

Given Putin’s response, direct conflict between the two superpowers seems more and more inevitable. The US does not seem to view this attack as a one-off, but rather the beginning of a serious push back against Iranian and Russian influence in the region.

Moscow has suspended the famous deconfliction hotline and has threatened to retaliate.

Expect both sides to continue to build up their armaments in expectationof a broader conflicts, as well as a more determined Trump that will attempt to push back on Putin and the Iranians.  If there is to be a direct conflict, it will be in Northern Syria with the US building up its arms there.

By reasserting the USA into a Middle East that now has Russia and Iran firmly established within it, Trump’s attack on Syria has changed the world forever.

MAKING ISRAEL JUDENREIN: Are Trump and Bibi Close to Freezing Jewish Construction Again?

As the vaunted Regional “Peace Deal” appears to be in the process of being cooked up between Bibi Netanyahu and the Trump administration, the question persists why the need to restrict building outside of the generally accepted “settlement” blocs?  Let’s assume for a second that peace is at hand, that the Arabs really will sit down and make peace with Israel, then what would it matter if Jews are living anywhere beyond the arbitrary green line or even the “blocs?”

Israel is a tiny state.  Even with Judea and Samaria added in, the width is about the size of New Jersey’s waste line, not big.  Blocs are a convenient way of expressing areas that are built up, but in most cases “isolated” Jewish communities exist within minutes of the defined “bloc.”  There is no real way to draw the line. Ten years ago no one considered Kochav Yaakov or Ofra North of Jerusalem part of the Greater Jerusalem bloc, but in 2017, most Israelis do.

In a letter to the government the Land of Israel Lobby wrote the following:

“The freeze is illegitimate, not even ‘in the meantime’ or as an ‘interim stage’, and certainly no freeze or construction restrictions outside the blocs,” the letter said. “The bloc plan is the plan of the Palestinian State and there is no justification for a right-wing government to accept it, either temporarily or partially,” the heads of the lobby say.

The Peace Camp Should Stand Against Building Freezes for Jews

Those who genuinely want peace should stand against the Arab demand that Jews refrain from building in any area of their ancestral homeland.  The litmus test for peace is not borders or security, but whether the other side can tolerate the other among them.  The Arabs demand that any future “Palestinian” state be void of Jews or judenrein essentially proves they are not ready for peace.  Furthermore, those in the Israeli government or the USA supporting such ideas must be taken to task for their support for racist and anti-Semitic policies. Whether it is the Trump administration or Bibi’s government contemplating the next “freeze,” they must be told in a serious manner that no peace will come from Jews being told they cannot build simply because they are Jews. After all if another minority would be told they cannot build or own a house simply due to their religious, national, or cultural background, it would be deemed racist.

The Spirit of the Holocaust Has Never Ended

The State of Israel afforded Jews around the world an opportunity to shrug the millennia of exile and rebuild their nation inside their ancestral homeland.  The Holocaust, encapsulated by the Final Solution was just the most extreme measure of Hitler’s desire to make Europe judenrein or free of Jews.  Construction freezes for Jews only is denying the Jewish people’s right to self determination as Jews.  True, there are no gas chambers or crematorium’s waiting for the Jewish Nation these days, but the spirit of judenrein continues unabated from Hitler to now.  Arab hate for Jewish life in the Levant will not cease by freezing Jews out of their right to build and live as they wish. In fact, the opposite is true. Construction freezes will never satiate the Arab world, for its hate for Jews stems from a deeper place so they will always ask for more, just as Hitler moved from simple deportation to the Final Solution.

In order for there to be peace, all demands on Jews to refrain from building should be dropped and instead demands should be placed on the Arabs to deal with their Jewish neighbors as neighbors and fellow human beings. Until then their is nothing to talk about.

 

Is War Coming Between Israel and Syria?

With Israel’s strike on a military convoy deep in Syrian territory near Palmyra and Syria’s missile response at the attacking aircraft afterwards, there is a sense that something has changed. The strike was the farthest the IAF has traveled since Russia entered the Syrian conflict two years ago.  Syria’s response was also out of the ordinary.  None of this was lost on Russia’s Putin who summoned the Israeli ambassador to Russia over Israel’s unusual admittance of the strike.

Netanyahu said in footage aired on Israel’s major television networks: “When we identify attempts to transfer advanced weapons to Hezbollah and we have intelligence and it is operationally feasible, we act to prevent it.

“That’s how it was yesterday and that’s how we shall continue to act,” he added.

“We are fully determined and the evidence of that it that we are acting. Everybody must take that into account — everybody.”

The Times of Israel reported the following:

Assaf Orion, senior research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Syria’s response was a “significant” shift.

Until now, he said, when Israel attacked Hezbollah convoys there, it “usually went without a response or with an insignificant response from the Syrian side.”

“[With this attack] the Syrian regime is trying to tell Israel it can’t stand it any more and those actions will not be free of charge.”

President Bashar Assad’s position has been strengthened in recent months with his forces reclaiming all of Syria’s second city Aleppo, as well as enjoying continuing Russian support.

Orion said the Syrian leader was feeling emboldened.

“He is saying: ‘Don’t push me. I am not as weak as I used to be.’”

What’s Next?

With war talk increasing between North Korea and the USA as well as the early euphoria of a potential detente between America and Russia now seemingly having melted away, there is an increased likelihood of a regional war connected to the rising tension between North Korea and America as well as NATO digging in its heels in Eastern Europe.  Hezbollah, Syria, and even Iran are clearly preparing for open conflict with Israel.  Up until now Russia has tried to keep the sides from attacking one another with giving tacit nods to Israel’s need to stop arms transfers to Hezbollah, but the latest attack being so far in Syria’s territory might have tripped up agreements Bibi had cemented with Putin. Putin sees that Israel’s attacks, however warranted, are getting in the way of his ability to strengthen his position in Syria.

With cold war style alliances once again becoming the norm the risk of war has never been greater. The question now does not seem “if,” but rather “when.”

Is Palestine in the Works?

Betzalel Smotritch of Bayit Yehudi, a member of Netanyahu’s government took to Facebook yesterday to slam the Prime Minister into working with the Trump administration in setting up the circumstances for a Palestinian State.

“In recent weeks, there have been too many indications that the Prime Minister is quietly cooking up a process that will lead to the establishment of Palestine. All this talk about a ‘deal’ and a regional peace conference, the freezing of construction outside the blocs (those who do not build outside the blocs essentially say that the State of Israel is not going to remain there), and the reports about a ‘deal’ that Trump proposed to Abbas for negotiations in return for a construction freeze; reports in Haaretz on contacts between Netanyahu and Herzog to establish a unity government based on the renewal of the ‘political process’; Netanyahu’s desire to build an ‘Iran bypass route’ with moderate Arab states in which the price Israel will have to pay in order to build this axis will be on the settlement front.”

Smotritch is referring to Trump’s desire to find a workable solution to the perceived Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a regional understanding with the “moderate” Sunni States. The regional solution is something Netanyahu has long advocated for. With Trump’s past hints that this is indeed in the works and his envoy Jason Greenblatt in Israel working on an understanding with Israel on future building within Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, there appears to be some truth to Smotritch’s claims.

In fact, Trump seems to be far more open on the regional avenue.  In a meeting with Saudi defense minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Trump expressed his “strong desire” to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

How Does Trump’s Vision Differ From Previous Administrations?

It is clear now that Trump views an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord as vitally important, yet the contours of that agreement remain sketchy.  Trump’s envoy to the region, Jason Greenblatt has done the unprecedented by meeting with leaders from Judea and Samaria during his trip to Israel and Jordan. Whatever the contours, it is clear that the approach is very different from before.  In the past a regional approach had meant that in exchange for destroying flourishing Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria in order to create Palestine, the “moderate” Sunni states would make peace with Israel.  Trump’s vision seems to be different. By not demanding a peace agreement based on the 1948 armistice lines it shifts the paradigm between Israel and the Arab states to something new. The shift is necessary, because without assurances that no Jewish community will be dismantled for “peace” Trump knows Netanyahu will not be able to pass a peace deal in the Knesset.

If Trump changes the focus of a potential accord between Israel and its Arab neighbors, the likelihood of a Palestinian State significantly increases.  Of course, the Palestinian State envisioned may be far closer to Luxembourg than Lebanon and if that’s the case then whose to say the Palestinian Arabs in Judea and Samaria and Jordan will go for it.