Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Are the Kurds of Syria about to be Cornered by Turkey and Russia?

Enemies make great friends when interests converge.

Turkey has announced the imminent launch of a serious military operation in the Afrin district of Northern Syria to wipe out the Kurdish militias in the area.

Pro Syrian news sources have reported that Turkish backed Free Syrian Army rebels have defected to the Syrian regime army to fight the Kurds. Although it is hard to tell if this is an isolated event, the fact that Turkey inked a deal to buy the Russia S-400 anti-aircraft system shows how the once formidable ememies have come together against a common foe, the US and its Sunni Arab Alliance.

The Kurds have long played both sides, but recently the Trump administration have gone out of its way to court the Syrian Kurdish militas (YPG) and merged them with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  The combination of moderate Syrian Arabs with elite Kurdish militias have proved pivotal in fighting the Islamic State.

With the coopting of the Northern wing of the FSA, which as opposed to its Southern wing is highly staffed by Turkish elements, the Kurds will have to contend with an Erdogan emboldened by Russian backing and a rebel force that is willing to fight to death to drive the Kurds back from their positions.

Israel and America Must Take a Stand

With the Kurdish army in Syria on the line, Israel and America must take a stand and stop the coming Turkish onlaught from decimating the one fighting force that has proven successful against Jihadist and stablizing for a post Assad Syria. If the Kurds fall in the North it will be another setback for America, Israel, and their Sunni Arab allies. Worst of all it would be just one more of a long list of American let downs in helping the truly indigenous Kurds finally reclaim their ancient homeland.

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SYRIA CRISIS: Fighting Intensifies Near the Israeli Golan as Second Mortar Hits Israel

With all the talk and excitement of the arrival of the USS H.W. Bush Aircraft carrier at the port in Haifa, an ominous battle keeps moving closer to Israel’s Eastern border.

For the second time in one hour mortars from a battle between Syrian regime forces and rebel militia has hit the Israeli Golan.  On Friday the IDF retaliated again for a stray mortar. With two mortars hitting Israel, the IDF will have no choice but to hit back.

Due to the rebel (FSA and Jihadi Forces) continued assault of Al-Baath, the location of the forward Iranian base in South-West Syria, the IDF will again use the opportunity to attack Assad’s forces.

The initial assault began just over a week ago, but has stalled in its goal of taking Al-Baath and splitting the regime’s control over the Damascs-Daraa highway. The Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies have brough the battle close to the Israeli border, in fact 3 kilometers away.

According to the Syrian regime there are still Israeli drones flying over al-Baath and seemingly posted there for a follow up attack.

Given the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted that Israel won’t allow Syrian and Iranian troops to take up positions on the Golan border, Israel may have not choice but to step up attacks with or without continued provocation.

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Has the Free Syrian Army Held off the Assad Regime’s Assault on the Golan Heights?

The command of rebel forces in Quneitra, East of the Israeli Golan published an infographics presentation where the group summarized the losses the Syrian regime army and its Iranian allies incurred during the last five days of fighting in the region.

As Israel Rising noted earlier in the week, the Free Syrian Army Quneitra division, which is tacitly supported by Israel, launched a major offensive against the Assad regime to free the Damascus-Daraa highway from regime control. The attack began on Saturday afternoon, during which their forces moved towards the town of ‘Ibay, where military centers and command facilities of the Iranians and Hezbollah are located.

During the offensive, they managed to capture parts of the city but later retreated.

This offensive and subsequent battles are still underway.  The Israeli airforce has aided the rebels from time to time using retaliations for the spillover fromt he battles to hit regime forces that are fighting.

Below are the stats from the presentation:

  • 108 killed
  • 250 wounded
  • 3 tanks were destroyed
  • 3 anti-tank guns

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BREAKING: American backed Northern Alliance Kills the Head of ISIS Quneitra Branch on the Golan Border

The Arabic-language Sky News network is reporting the bombing of an unidentified aircraft apparently belonging to the Northern Alliance, which was  in northern Jordan killed the commander of Daesh (ISIS) Quneitra.

The head of Daesh Quneitra had not even been its leader for a month before he was killed by the bombing this evening.

His predecessor, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi was killed along with a large number of senior local commanders.

The name of today’s commander is sort of a mystery. Some people say it was Abu Hashem al-Rifai Abu Hashem al-Rifai.  Others say it was Abu Hashim al-Askari al-Darawi. Either way, Daesh Quneitra has suffered another setback.

Impact on Israel

There had been a lot of rumors once Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi was killed that it was the Israeli airforce that carried out the hit in the beginning of Ramadan. In truth, Israel has been very involved for a while, on one hand supporting the FSA rebels against Assad and on the other hand trying to remove ISIS.

Weakening ISIS along its border is a top priority for the Israeli government, yet they can’t do it alone as they need to focus on holding Syria and Iran back. The dangerous balance between destroying ISIS and supporting anti-regime forces is key in trying to secure the Golan border.

The Northern Alliance aircraft was most likely American.  This would indicate a division of labor between the US and Israel. With the Americans focusing on ISIS in the South, Israel can better position itself to help the FSA break the supply route between Damascus and Daraa.

 

 

 

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Is the Worst Over on the Syria-Israel Border?

The IDF Spokesperson tweeted the following out this morning:

While this is a good short-term development, notifying the end to what seemed to be an acute situation on the Syrian border, the message should be taken very superficially. The spillover into the Israeli side of the Golan was certainly nerve-wracking for the residents of Northern Israel, yet the fact that the IDF took great pains to focus their return fire on the Syrian regime should be a warning on just how close regime forces and their Iranian allies have come to once again claiming the Golan border.

The retaliation by the IDF against the Syrian regime in many ways goes far beyond the scope of Israel’s claimed focus of their relationship to the many sides in the Syrian civil war.

It is no accident that the IDF retaliated heavily on regime positions at the same moment the FSA was leading and offensive to cut through the road leading from Damascus to Daraa. The regime forces of Assad and his Iranian allies have yet to fully crush the resistance in Daraa and so the FSA was trying to break their supply lines.

 

Base image source: MrPenguin20

 

For the first time Israel was willing to show Syria some of their hand in order to relay a message. “Quneitra is off-limits.” The Quneitra based division of the FSA is more and more becoming aligned with Israel. What started out as simple humanitarian gestures have morphed into an Israeli backed rebel militia.

With Hezbollah stationed oppositie Har Dov and routinely coming close to the base there, Israel can ill-afford to have the Syrian regime and Iran take up positions opposite the Eastern border of the Golan.

As the Trump administration weighs its next move against the Syrian regime, Israel is moving fast to push back againstAssad’s forces without fully entering the civil war.