Author: David Mark

David Mark is the founder and editor of Israel Rising. Besides Israel Rising, he heads up outreach for Ateret Cohanim in Jerusalem's Old City and acts as the Managing Director for Pulse of Israel. On the side he teaches classes that blend minimalism, mindfulness, and ecology with the teachings of Rebbe Nachman of Breslov.
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Turkey Coup: The Coming NATO Civil War

As the counter coup continues to rage, Erdogan is gaining more and more power by the day.  The dream of a resurgent Ottoman Empire is not just a fantasy anymore.  Whether the coup was a false flag event or a poorly executed attempt orchestrated by Fetullah Gulen, Erdogan’s nemesis, the counter coup is already changing the dynamic of Turkey and its relationship with NATO.

“The President pledged any needed assistance to the Turkish government as they conduct an investigation to determine exactly what happened,” Josh Earnest, White House spokesman told reporters.

Although the statement appears to be positive, the following caveat on the investigation holds within it a powerful message and hint to where things will go.  Earnest continued with the following: “[Obama] believes that investigation should be conducted consistent with the democratic principles that are enshrined in Turkey’s constitution.”

What is clear, is that Erdogan is ignoring Turkey’s constitution.  He has arrested and purged thousands.  He has shut down opposition media and is on his way to becoming the 21st century sultan redux.  

The Obama administration knows this.  Despite Obama’s early bromance with Erdogan, he and his advisors have grown to despise his continued power grabs and meddling in the Middle East.  The challenge for the West is that Turkey is no pushover, they have the second largest military in NATO, second only to the USA.  

Erdogan has been using NATO as cover throughout his tenure, knowing that eventually he would either leave or be jettisoned out of the alliance.  The problem is that NATO needs Turkey far more than Turkey need NATO right now.  NATO membership was always a moderating force on Turkey’s actions.  Whether or not Turkey formally leaves, from here on out Erdogan will not take NATO membership into consideration as he moves to rebuild the lost Ottoman empire.  At its peak it reached from Greece to Iraq. Erdogan won’t get it all back, but he will try to uncover areas that are weak and if successful he will push on.

Ottoman Empire
Boundaries of the Ottoman Empire in 1795

At one point and time NATO will have to stop their east most neighbor member.  The conflict will be fought through economics and proxies, but it will be fought.  Afterall, Erdogan is a believer and is determined to see his dreams through. Ironically the schism in NATO reminds one of the last time Europe split into two, between the Western and Roman Empires.  History repeats itself, sometimes in the most brutal ways.

 

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Can Bibi Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin Save Kurdistan from the new Sultan of Turkey?

Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.

All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan.  Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?

 

None of this should be a surprise.  Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years.  True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions.  Erdogan will  attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.

 

There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.  Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan.  Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds.  With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.

 

How Can they Do This?

The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message.  Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas.  Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.

If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

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[Podcast] The Obama Effect: Syrian Chaos, ISIS, and Israeli Leadership

The Syrian civil war is a direct result of the Obama doctrine: Chaos is the key to ensuring Western order.  The problem with this sort of thinking is that chaos is never managed well, especially when Islamic radicals are used as the primary tool to spread the chaos.  Listen to today’s podcast and learn how Israel has had to maneuver within the chaos and war of the new Middle East.

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Boris Johnson, Israel, and the Shifting Sands of Global Leadership

Boris Johnson is an unconventional politician.  After successfully leading the Brexit camp to the victory, he has now been named as Theresa May’s new Foreign Minister. Boris Johnson is not only an unabashed nationalist in the British mold, he has recognized that the world has changed.  During the Brexit campaign Johnson and politician Nigel Farage rightly argued that an overly bureucratic European Union stuck in a 20th Century paradigm was choking Britain and holding it back from dealing with a rising China, Russia, India, and Israel.

By naming Boris Johnson as her foreign minister, May essentially sends a signal that the game the Europeans have been playing with the world is up.  Afterall, when the game turns deadly, what else can be expected.  Britain has always had two sides to her.  One as the highly manipulative colonial overlord and the other being the liberty seeking altruist. Neither is 100% representative of Great Britain’s demure, but Boris Johnson’s ascendency to the face of the Kingdom seems to be an acquiesence that Britain can no longer remain attached to the ideas of old.

Afterall, Johnson himself caught much flack when he slammed the BDS movement. “I cannot think of anything more foolish” than to boycott “a country that when all is said and done is the only democracy in the region, the only place that has in my view a pluralist open society,” he said.

Britain as a partner rather than an unwanted interloculator  is of course a postive step. Yet, as has been noted in the past, Britain ends up doing whatever is good for Britain and by whatever means is necessary.  Right now those that control the purse have decided to let the liberty contingent assume power, yet if May and Johnson rock the  boat too much their control won’t last long.

The British elite which are the ones who have set policy since the beginning of the kingdom have always had to bend at times of rising populism.  The tide right now seems to be going in that direction.

Israel must not forget that it was Britain, as colonial master in the Land of Israel, incited Arabs to inflict maximum damage to Jews, while preventing the Jews from defending themselves.  It was the British government which actively blocked Jews from coming to the Land of Israel only to be sent back to Europe to die. It was the British who armed and directed the Arab armies against the young Jewish State. The same British overlords reveled in the the choas they created here in Israel and across Africa and the Middle East in order to ensure maxmum profit without the obligations of justice. They shifted populations and aided Arab allies in migrating, conquering, and controlling much of the indigenous non-Arab populace.

Can Theresa May and Boris Johnson rectify the past sins of the old order without being thrown out by the British elite?  This is highly doubtful, but for now though Boris Johnson becoming Foreign Minister is at least an acknowledgement that global leadership may be shifting away from Europe and shifting fast.