Tag: Syria

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Jund al-Aqsa: What is America Hiding in Syria?

With the American military claiming the recent attack on the Syrian Arab Army a mistake, evidence seems to indicate that other forces are at play indicating that this attack was far from a mistake.  The attack on the Syrian Arab Army comes at a time when the fragile cease fire hammered out between the Americans and Russians appears to be unravelling already. 

Given the fact that the Americans have been operating in Eastern Syria for a while, how could they possibly make a mistake like this?  Afterall they know the Deir Ez-Zor  area far better than the other players, even Russia.

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Something that will shed light on the attack is the group the Syrian Arab Army was fighting. Their name is Jund al-Aqsa and despite their affiliation to radical salafist ideology the US only named them a terrorist entity 3 days ago.  In fact they were funded by the US and given sophisticated weaponry in their fight against the Syrian Army.

Salman Rafi Sheikh of the New Eastern Outlook says the following:

A look at the pattern of how the US-led coalition has been striking in the region would further reveal that the last strike, which killed more than 60 Syrian soldiers, was not simply a mistake. ISIS and the Syrian army have been fighting in the region, in Deir ez-Zor, for a long time. How come it be that the US led coalition never struck ISIS when it was rather successfully moving westward, for example, when it took Palmyra last year? Consistent with its current narrative, the US officials might like to put on this question another mask of “coincidence” and deep “regret.”

 

Since the “mistaken” American strike Jund al-Aqsa has been on a role in other areas, most notably Hama farther to te West and near Aleppo.  In those areas they have pushed back the Syrian Army and gained considerable ground.

The American air strike seems more like a supporting mission that was uncovered by the Russians.  But there is more.  The ceasefire was opposed by Ashton Carter the American Secretary of Defense and most of the Defense establishment who are hell-bent on removing Assad from power by any means necessary. They have been using ISIS style terror entities as proxies for a while and until the Russians entered the fray it worked.

Now with the Russia and the Syrian Army pushing back most of the gains the US proxies made over the last few years, the US defense establishment is taking one last chance by using ISIS off shoots like Jund al-Aqsa to push back against the Syrian Army.  By declaring the air strikes a mistake the US hopes to cover he fact that ISIS as we know it is really the Frankenstein of the Department of Defense led by Ashton Carter.

This Frankenstein has gone mad.

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BREAKING NEWS: Turkey Invades Syria as Next Stage in War Begins

Multiple sources are reporting that Turkish special forces backed by artillery fire and F-16’s have begun a direct military assault on ISIS positions in Northern Syria.  Turkish combat units such as regular infantry and tanks have rolled up to the Syrian border and are preparing to enter sovereign Syrian territory for the first time.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:

Daesh [ISIS] should be completely cleansed from our borders and we are ready to do what it takes for that.

This change in Turkey’s relationship to the ongoing Syrian civil war is drastic and very well can lead to untold consequences as  Turkey’s goals both align with the anti-ISIS coalition as well as are in conflict with it.  Erdogan often times uses ISIS as a foil to attack Kurdish positions in both Syria and Iraq.  The Turkish government has resigned itself to a Kurdish autonomous zone in Northern Iraq, but when the Syrian Kurds literally declared a federalized autonomous entity in Northern Syria, Turkey knew it had limited time to react before an inevitable Kurdish state arose on its border stretching from the Mediterranean to Iran.

The anti-ISIS particulars behind Turkey’s intensifying an already out of control conflict gives it the wiggle room it needs to invade Syria.  The only question remains is whether Putin agreed to this or not. If he did not, then the Syrian civil war just got a whole lot uglier.

Yet, if this was agreed between Erdogan and Putin beforehand then the Russian leader must have promised Erdogan something big in return for destroying the very group Turkey helped set up in order to make a lot of money off the illegal oil trade.  Of course, Erdogan didn’t do this alone.  US and NATO were at least complicit with the set up of ISIS, a radical Sunni group in Eastern Syria. Using oil as payment to Turkey, NATO and the US were free to establish a blocking force against Iranian advancement, albeit one that has grown out of control.

Now with Turkey’s pivot to Russia, ISIS is more of a hindrance than a help.  So what is the quid pro quo from Russia? Russia’s abandonment of the Kurds makes that an easy answer.

 

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Russian Chopper Downed in Syria, Kremlin says: “All aboard are dead”

The Kremlin announced that all 5 Russian military personel onboard the downed chopper, have been reported dead. The chopper was shot down above the Idlib Province. The Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said, “All five died a heroes death as they were on a humanitarian mission.  According to Russian sources the helicopter swerved away from civilian areas as it crashed to avoid unneeded deaths.

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WAR DRUMS: Is a Golan Clash Imminent?

What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today.  In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days.  A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.

Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed.  Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.

Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?

Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual.  Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.

Already Out of Putin’s Hands

There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian.  Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.

Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border.  Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention.  As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted.  Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.

In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?

 

 

 

 

 

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Hezbollah Drone Maybe a Harbringer for Renewed Fighting with Israel

The collective wisdom is that Hezbollah is too caught up with supporting the Assad government’s fight against ISIS to attack Israel, but Hezbollah’s penetration of Israel’s airspace in the Golan yesterday using a drone, may be an indication that things are about to change.

The IDF fired two Patriots at the drone and missed their target.  The drone made it back to its origin in Syria.  For Hezbollah, drones are a perfect form of both psychological warfare and reconnaissance. The important question is whether this is more of the same from Hezbollah or should Israel be prepared for renewed combat against Hezbollah.

In the last year the area West of the Golan has been the scene of warfare between Jihadist like Al-Nusra or ISIS and Hezbollah and Syrian Government Forces. There have been stray shells that penetrated the Golan and other incidents, but Hezbollah until recently has stayed focused on extraditing the Assad regime from the grips collapse.

The ramifications of renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel could be wide. The IDF will have to contend with Iranian troops as well as the Syrian army which is looking to raise morale. Fighting the “Zionists” is an excellent way to do that. The real unknown is Russia’s reaction.  Putin has taken a liking to Israel and wants it within his sphere of influence, yet is fully aware that he has supported Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria in their fight against ISIS.  At some point Putin will have to make a decision on which party to support for the long term. Renewed combat between Israel and Hezbollah will bring that decision to the forefront.