Tag: Saudi Arabia

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Qatar-Saudi Deal A Pushback Against Iranian-Chinese Dominance

The recently concluded Qatar-Saudi deal to end the blockade on Qatar has once again changed the equation and calibration of peace in the Middle East. There are those naysayers who believe the deal was concluded in time for a potential Biden administration, but that is improbable.

Remember the embargo on Qatar was led by Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States precisely because of Qatar’s connections to Iran and its funding of the Muslim Brotherhood.

A Biden administration that is ready to cozy up to the Mullah’s in Iran would elicit a continuing of the present Saudi led embargo.

Most likely, Qatar has realized which way the wind is blowing in the Middle East when it comes to their Sunni friends. Qatar’s strength has always come from its ability to play all sides – the embargo proved to its leadership in Doha that this strategy is no longer an option.

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Qatar Wants In On A Potential UAE-Israel Pipeline

With a reported pipeline between the UAE and Israel in the works, Qatar’s reliance and drive to build one with Turkey has now become obsolete. The main reason for its support for Turkey’s pro ISIS policies during Obama’s tenure was due to the building of this joint Turkey-Qatar pipeline.

Without the ability to build a secure pipeline and the UAE-Israel potentially being far more lucrative, Qatar has less reasons to hold back from returning to the Sunni block.

True, Biden’s team views things differently and this is the reason for Qatar’s decision to pick sides now. With the White House’s foreign policy potentially being run through Beijing, Qatar’s historic “neutrality” in the region is not longer relevant after Jan. 20th.

A Different Middle East – New Opportunities

President Trump’s team has left the region in a very different situation. The Muslim Brotherhood is fast being pushed out after the signing of the Abraham Accords and with it Qatar’s reason and ability to push against its Sunni neighbors and more importantly Israel.

Qatar’s choice to rejoin the Saudi led block also means that it accepts the centrality and necessity of Israel’s role within that block. Biden can certainly try to partner with Iran. However, the block’s strength is its ability to utilize Israel’s innovation economy, military prowess, and geopolitical connections around the world to sidestep a hapless Biden administration and a rising China without losing ground to Iran.

Qatar’s growing communication with Israel concerning Gaza has also made it less obstinate in dealing with the Jewish state on other issues. It also has a working relationship with Jerusalem and will now benefit from the Abraham Accords in an indirect way.

The Qatar-Saudi deal may appear to have come out of nowhere, but it needed to be done before Biden takes over in order to ensure that Iranian influence does not pollute the negotiations. Qatar wants to keep its revenues rising and influence steady and sees the Sunni block as the key to doing it.

This agreement will make it harder for Biden and company to push for rejoining the already broken Iran nuclear deal. More than that, it is a message for China who recently upgraded their military pact with Iran, that the Abraham Accords and the Sunni block will not be broken up.

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Yemen, Iran, and The Coming Attack On Israel

The new alliance between Israel and the UAE as well as Bahrain has upended the Middle East in many ways. From technology and innovation partnerships to military drills and intelligence sharing, the Abraham Accords has made the countries involved the most powerful the region has seen.

None of this has been lost on the Iranians, who understand that despite Biden’s desire to jump back into the nuclear deal, there will be little he can do about the growing strength of the Sunni-Israel alliance.

This is why the Iranians are using Yemen as a forward battle against Saudi clout on the Arabian peninsula. This was clearly demonstrated when the new Saudi backed Yemen government arrived at the Aden airport only to be attacked by Iranian backed Houthis. 26 people were killed the triple bombing and more than 60 wounded.

The blasts were so loud they were heard in Israel.

The message from Iran is clear: Don’t think about joining the Abraham Accords.

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China, Djibouti, and the Control Over The Red Sea

Although most observers have focused their attention on the Persian Gulf, Yemen has strategic value to Iran as rests across the Bab al-Mandab Strait from Djibouti. This is one of the most important choke points for shipping in the world. Freighters travel through Bab al-Mandab Strait and bring oil and other commodities to the West.

This is why China has gone out of its way to build up its base in Djibouti, effectively giving it an advantage in controlling the Red Sea. Furthermore, Beijing has gone out of its way to invest in Eritrea and Ethiopia, securing most of the Horn of Africa.

This is why Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states have long seen the war in Yemen as critical in keeping the Chinese-Iranian alliance to only one side of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Message to Israel

With Israeli arms sales and agri-tech development in Ethiopia and other countries on the Horn of Africa, Israel is hoping to keep pressure on Beijing to play fair by keeping the struggle economic.

Iran’s message to Israel is clear. Yemen may have a new government, but it still the Houthis that call the shots and with them the Red Sea and its shipping routes are up for grabs.

Iran is effectively using much of China’s investment in its Belt and Road Initiative to help build a net against Israel and her Sunni allies.

Yemen is critical in controlling both sides of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and with it, a crushing blow to peace in the region.

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PREPARING FOR BIDEN: Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Meet To Plan Next Moves

The news is awash with rumors of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s face to face meeting with Muhamed bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince, also known as MBS. Now confirmed, the meeting took place on Sunday in the desert city of Neom.

Under construction as a $500 billion showcase of technological innovation, the Israeli leader spent nearly five hours with MBS, Saudi Arabia’s heir to the throne. The Prime Minister was joined by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Mossad Director Yossi Cohen.

While the setting of Neom was a fitting place for this groundbreaking meeting, it was not the technology or environmental aspects of Neom the two leaders were discussing. More than likely, they were discussing the incoming Biden administration and the dangers it brings to the region.

It is also true that with less than two months left to President Trump’s term full normalization may be on the table. Such a move is necessary in order to block the potential return of the JCPOA (Iranian nuclear deal), which threatens the safety of both the Sunni Arab Gulf States and Israel.

However, the JCPOA is only one worry. The immediate change in status for Iran in dealing with the White House is what scares Israel and its new Arab allies. Iran, backed by China and a compliant America will be able to demonize the Persian Gulf and beyond.

Biden’s incoming administration is more like a third term for Obama and it is this third term, which seeks to truly transform the world. From faux climate change to reengaging China and Iran, the Deep State and globalists who now find themselves moments away from active control of the USA are salivating for the opportunity to push back on Israel and the Saudi-UAE-Bahrain alliance.

Remember, it was the Obama administration who enabled ISIS and thus created a vacuum of power in Iraq that allowed Iran to march into.

Antony Blinken is Only Tip Of The Iceberg

Antony Blinken the incoming Secretary of State was one of the backers and architects of the JCPOA. He will have full control of America’s foreign policy and appears ready to reengage with Iran. With Biden, largely expected to take a back seat to decision making, Blinken’s role will be magnified.

Another Obama-Clinton retread is Jack Sullivan, who served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Biden has appointed him as incoming Director of the National Security Advisor (NSA).

Finally (at least for now), Avril Haines who worked at the White House starting in 2010 as a national security lawyer and then in 2013, then CIA Director John Brennan appointed her deputy director for the CIA. Brennan was the one who brought us drone assassinations, an expanded Iran, and a decimated Libya among other things.

The above appointments and more show which direction the Biden team plans on heading on Jan. 20th.

Bibi and MBS Building An Alliance

The 1 hour trip to Neom was in essence a path forward for both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The ascendancy of Biden to President means a possible reversal of the gains the Trump Administration accomplished. This is why Israel and Saudi Arabia may have no choice but to forge a path together and build a new Middle East with or without America. By doing so, they will have the ability to hold back the Mullahs and in many ways the coming Biden Administration.

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Trump to Mohammed bin Salman: Focus on Iran

When Donald Trump meets with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, the president should have three clear and forceful messages for his reform-oriented guest: Focus your undivided attention to adopting a soft power approach to the Iranian regime, end the war in Yemen and lift your blockade of American ally Qatar.

These three interconnected messages that President Trump should deliver to MBS (as he is known) stem from a geopolitical reality that has been in existence for over 39 years: The Iranian regime continues to be the most serious threat to regional security in the Middle East and the major state-sponsor of terrorism. Concomitantly, the Iranian people continue to be the most serious threat to the Islamic regime and the only real hope for a fundamental change in Iran.

Mr. Trump and his national security team should make it clear to the crown prince that Saudi Arabia’s efforts to confront the Iranian regime by war through proxy in Yemen has not deterred the IRGC. Sadly, the conflict in Yemen is draining Saudi Arabia’s precious financial resources. According to some estimates, the Saudi effort to confront the Iranian regime in Yemen is costing the Kingdom around $1 billion per month.

After spending billions of dollars, Saudi Arabia is not close to thwarting the designs of Ayatollah Khamenei to build a beachhead on the Arabian Peninsula by supporting his Houthi allies. Spending a small portion of this $1 billion on a robust soft power approach toward the thugs ruling Iran would be a better investment by MBS.

The president should also ask that the Saudi crown prince lift the blockade of his smaller neighbor Qatar because this move has split the GCC and diverted the Security Pact’s attention from adopting a unified approach to confronting the threat posed by the Iranian regime. Qatar is home to America’s largest prepositioning based in the world and ExxonMobil is the largest investor in that country’s energy sector.

The Saudi crown prince may point to Doha’s ties with Tehran as one reason for the blockade. But for Saudi Arabia to criticize Qatar for its relations with Iran is unfair because Qatar shares a major natural gas field with Iran. If Qatar takes a hostile approach toward Iran Tehran will react negatively and jeopardize the flow of natural gas to world markets.

Just ask Azerbaijan, another American ally. In 2000, Iranian gunboats threatened work on a 10 billion barrel oil field in the Caspian Sea thus denying Azerbaijan the ability to monetize a major energy asset.

Mr. Trump should applaud the young ruler of Saudi Arabia for his boldness in wanting to confront the Iranian regime but he should also point out that If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman adopts a robust, consistent and efficient soft power policy in his dealings with the Islamic regime, he will have the full support of the president and his entire national security team.

The United States government should make it loud and clear to MBS that by solving the “Iran Problem” through non-military means he will usher in a new geopolitical and economic dynamic within the broader Middle East.

While MBS and his father, King Salman, may be aware of the consequences a soft power approach toward the theocratic regime in Tehran, it may be worth Mr. Trump emphasizing to the crown prince the tectonic geopolitical ramifications of a new order in Iran:

No more funding for groups like Hamas (who are holding Palestinians hostage in the Gaza Strip) and Hezbollah (who are holding the people of Lebanon hostage to their dogma); an end to support for Houthi rebels in Yemen; liberating Bahrain (home to America’s Fifth Fleet) from the constant threat of IRGC adventurism; decoupling the butcher of Damascus (Bashar Assad) from his equally thuggish patrons; freeing Iraq of political intervention; demonstrating to the Muslim world the bankruptcy of Islamic ideology as a form of governance; and, removing an existential threat to Israel.

In addition to the aforementioned, Mr. Trump should strongly encourage MBS to adopt a soft power policy toward the regime in Tehran because a free and democratic Iran, at peace with itself and its neighbors will usher in a new economic renaissance for the entire region. The $2 trillion that are currently under the control of the region’s sovereign wealth funds can be invested inside Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait to boost human capital and create jobs.

Furthermore, these funds can also be put to productive use in rebuilding parts of Iraq, Yemen and Syria. And finally, Iran’s 80-plus million market can become a destination for investments by Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies.

Mr. Trump should encourage Mohammed bin Salman to adopt a course correction as it concerns Saudi Arabia’s policy toward the theocratic regime in Iran. The leader of the free world has a historic opportunity to point out to Mohammed bin Salman that by embracing a soft-power approach toward Iran he can go down in history as the leader who ushered in a renaissance for the people of his country and the region.

Originally Published in the Washington Times.

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PEACE PROCESS: Saudi Arabia Allows Air India Flights Bound for Israel to Use its Airspace

After a 70 year ban on commercial flights using its airspace to fly to Israel, Saudi Arabia has granted for the first time permission for Air India flights bound for Israel to be able to fly over the Kingdom.

The decision, which will be implemented in March, means that the flights from New Delhi to Tel Aviv would be shortened by two and a half hours. It also means cheaper tickets for passengers.

The move is credited to the growing alliance and working relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. It is also a testament to the growing influence India has in the Middle East.  India’s upgraded partnership with Israel to that of a strategic alliance has shuffled reltionships across the Arab world.  Between Trump’s pushing and prodding and India’s PM Modi’s ripping up of the “Palestinian” narrative, the Crown Prince Muhammed Bin-Salman has found it necessary to begin forging ties with Israel.




The Saudi government had banned flights headed to Israel from using its airspace for 70 years. While it is no secret that private jets can fly from Saudi and other Gulf airports to Israel, they could not use the direct route and had to make a stop-over in Amman airport first.

The move by Saudi Arabia also confirms the Palestinian Authority’s worst fears that it is being pushed to the side in search for a real and lasting peace.  Afterall, in the eyes of many in the Arab world, the times have changed and no longer are the “Palestinian” a necessary component of Arab nationalism.  A smaller world has led to the realization that Israel is here to stay and furthermore can play an important roll in a Middle East that has moved byond sectarian tunnel vision.

Modi’s push for Air India to be able to fly over Saudi Arabia  to Israel is beyond Trump’s peace moves, but rather reflects a changing world where traditional indigenous powers have come of age. It also reelcts Israel’s diversification in relationships.