Tag: Russia

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The Coming War Maybe the Last

With a resurgent Putin and ascending China one wonders how the global structure that has existed since the end of the Cold War will continue to exist.  Most people view events through a lens of national interests mixed with political bravado.  These cross interests usually line up.  Due to this alignment we rarely have the disconnect we currently have in the West.  During the Cold War, anti-Soviet sentiment coincided with both the political and economic needs of the West’s establishment and everyday person.

No one in Washington or Brussels imagined a world where both Russia and China would reemerge as serious challengers to the West’s financial and geopolitical control, yet this is precisely what has happened. With Putin on the move in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and countries like the Philippines changing sides to China, the elite in the West have begun to panic. This is the cause of Hillary’s break with Obama’s policy when it comes to these new rising powers.

Goldman Sachs Speeches are Key to the Coming Confrontation 

Hillary is bought and sold by the banks. Her speeches make it clear she works for them and is essentially their pupet in the White House. Like always wars are far more about economy and financial control than anything else.  True there is an element ideology or nationalism at play, but choosing confrontation rarely has to do with that.  Hillary and her backers see Russia and China as a serious threat for their continuing monopoly on global finance.

With this at play, the interests of main street and the elite diverge drastically. Most Americans don’t care about Russian moves in the Middle East or Eastern Europe.  This is why Trump’s foreign policy is attractive. However, Trump is not the President whether or not he wins may not stave off a major confrontation between the USA/EU/Britain and Russia/China.

The financials in the West see a direct confrontation now, even at risk of full-blown WW3 levels rather than a proxy war as better to make sure their control stays in tact. Putin is not waiting either and this makes the “Great Game” far more dangerous than ever. For Putin and even China they understand the West is not going to let them steam roll their new world order.

When Will This Happen?

If Tump pulls an upset and wins, look for Obama to push towards an open confrontation now.  If Hillary wins, Putin will want to move fast in order to throw her foreign policy off before she gets in office.  The war will start, but on Putin’s time-table.  Either way, the stakes are so high this next war maybe the world’s last.

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Showdown in Syria: Russia vs. the West, Leaving Israel Isolated

Russia’s success in dividing NATO by breaking off Turkey from the alliance has not been lost on the European American members of the alliance. There first reaction has been to blame Russia for the failure of the truce to stick, but in reality American attacks on various targets has thrown the onus onto the Obama administration not Putin.

The West’s interest in Syria is twofold.  The first is to prevent Iran from building a Shiite crescent from Iranian soil to the mediterranean.  The second is to push back on Russia’s growing control of the Middle East.  On both of these accounts, Putin’s entrance into the fray last year threw the West off of their playbook and they have been rushing to recalibrate ever since.

The above, coupled with Russia’s move to putting the screws on Washington’s regime change in the Ukraine has divided the alliance and kept it from putting up a real fight against Russia. By blaming Putin for the collpase of the truce, Washington and the countries in NATO that are of like mind are trying to set the stage for their increased involvement in the Syrian theatre.

Israel On Its Own

The last thing Israel wants and needs right now is increased fighting between the West and Russian forces on the ground in Syria.  Although it has supported regime change in Syria from the beginning, the Israeli cabinet and Defense Establishment will not push that at the expense of ruining their détente with Putin. Nothing in the West’s playbook gives them assurances that Israel will be defended from Russian and Iranian aggression if America and NATO stand up to Russia.

According to news reports and other sources, Syria-Hezbollah backed by Iran are preparing to launch the same sort of attacks they have been doing on rebels in the Aleppo area next to the Golan. The presence of the Syrian army and Hezbollah so close to the Israeli border seems to imply that it is in fact Israel which will suffer a response if NATO increases their involvement in Syria.

This is ultimately why Bibi has reached out to Putin to put out any flames that may occur.  The challenge is that it may be beyond Putin to stop the Iranian backed armies of Assad and Nasralla from attacking Israel.  After all Putin needs them to finish the job in the rest of Syria.

With Obama about to leave office and being no friend of the Jewish state anyway, Israel is on its own.

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BREAKING NEWS: Israel Aligns with NATO as Alliance Frays at the Seams

Israel is celebrating its opening of a permanent mission to NATO.  The role was n question until Turley and Israel patched their differences up and renewed diplomatic ties.  

“Israel attributes great importance to its relations with NATO. The opening of a permanent office reflects Israel’s role in promoting peace and stability in the region,” Leshno-Yaar, Israel’s ambassador to the EU said in the statement.

Despite the positive development that took years to achieve, the strategic landscape across the world is drastically different from just a few years ago.  NATO is not what it used to be.  This is due both to a reassertive Russia as well as major differences in NATO’s use of an intervention force.

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With NATO having overstepped its bounds in many areas from Eastern Europe to North Africa a growing chorus of anti-interventionists have begun to push back and openly question NATO’s purpose and mission in a world vastly different that even the post-cold war period.

 

With this in mind it begs the question of why Israel needs to be part or even tacitly connected to the alliance. The answer is it doesn’t.

The only reason why Israel is pushing ahead with its NATO mission is ensure that remains on more than friendly terms with NATO.  A receding NATOis just as interventionist as always, but just a bit weaker. In a volatile world Israel wants to make sure it keeps its foot in the west as it continues to court Russia and China.

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The Fall of Europe and the Coming New World Reorder

As Brexit seems increasingly likely, mainland Europe has become unhinged. Britain was always seen as a responsible partner in an endeavor that appeared more like a college philosophy class than a productive geopolitical entity. With Britain leaving and the rest of the EU states dependent on Germany for leadership, the chances of averting an EU implosion appears to be nil.

This is why Merkel and others are irrate over Britain’s departure.  Not because they are missing out on a desired relationship, but it begins a process where the elitists in Brussels will lose their hold on the power centers built up after the fall of the Berlin wall.

Trump is Right About Russia

The main foreign policy debate between Donald Trump and the Neo-Conservative establishment now led by Hillary Clinton is the future relationship with Russia.  Donald Trump inately understands that the USA has an issue when it comes to Russia.  His approach is essentially to work with Russia and a lesser degree the Chinese to bring about a far different world order, which he and his supporters believe will be far more stable.

The Neo-Conservatives in Washington are scared by this approach.  They had put their hopes on a stable world order by enforcing interventionists policies through NATO. A Trump victory, which seems far more likely now will reshuffle the world order by creating a multi-polar world that is stable.

Expect to see the USA, Russia, Britain, China, and possibly India work together to divide the world into spheres of influence between them.

As Europe falls apart and the UN increasingly becomes useless, the importance of different actors is a necessity.  The only challenge is whether the old guard wants to give in.

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Edging Towards WW3

Now that the Putin backed United Russia party secured a clear majority in the Russian Duma, Putin can begin to tackle the challenges growing on Russia’s western front mainly the Ukraine. The EU backed government in Kiev has been in an on and off war between the break away pro-Russian regions of the Donbass.  Russia sees these regions as a natural part of its territory.

With the EU move towards a united EU army to offset the crumbling NATO alliance, Putin views the EU as a direct threat to his territorial ambitions.  This is essentially why Putin has been on the move both westward and in the Middle East.  The Russians, like other former empires view their territorial reach in the past as a goal to get to in the future. For Russia that is all the way to Germany as well as rehabilitation of direct influence in the Middle East.

Eurasian Union as a threat to the Neo Conservative Agenda

Russia’s goal of uniting formerly Soviet states under the rubric of  Russian controlled economic sphere has already rattled the nerves of Western leaders.  However, Russia’s growing cooperation with China puts both  NATO and other Western powers on the defensive.  This is essentially what NATO is doing by deploying troops and fomenting regime change in the Ukraine and Syria.

With the two developing powers of Russia and China essentially agreeing to work together to roll back the post Cold-War world order, the leadership in America, Britain, and Brussels are throwing down the gauntlet in Ukraine.  This is where things will get dicey.

 Trump a Game Changer

Up until now both Western leaders and their Russian and Chinese counterparts were willing to play along with the 21st century Big Game, but the impending Trump victory due to Clinton’s collapse (both figuratively and literally) changes the calculus of Western leaders.  Trump has made his admiration and willingness to work with Putin public. If the Donald wins, world politics as we know it bound to change and this is what makes the Neo-Conservative agenda drivers nervous.

In the coming weeks look for a October surprise in Eastern Ukraine as Washington and the EU interject themselves into the conflict in order to head off any rapprochement with Russia. These sorts of actions replayed not only in Eastern Europe but in the South China Sea as well, will directly affect the pace and thrust of war between NATO, Russia, and China.

The world is about to be set ablaze by a crumbling order that made its money off the outcome of World War 2 and the Cold War.  Putin understands the West is frantic and yet this chaos that is swirling provides him with little maneuvering room going forward. From here on out until inauguration day, expect increased volatility as WW3 closes in.