Things are continuing to heat up in the Middle East as the US Military has sent the USS Cole to patrol off the coast of Yemen following a Houthi attack on a Saudi Arabian vessel earlier in the week. This has been coupled with the Trump administration adding fresh sanctions to the Iranian regime. With tensions rising between the US and Iran, the Ayatollah has threatened to attack US interests in the region.
Iranian Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh said the following in response to the sanctions:
“If the enemy does not walk the line, our missiles come down on them.” He continued to say “We are working day and night to protect Iran’s security. If we see smallest misstep from the enemies, our roaring missiles will fall on their heads.”
The war of words and posturing have continued with President Trump threatening Iran on Twitter:
Iran is playing with fire – they don’t appreciate how “kind” President Obama was to them. Not me!
While the Ayatollah and the President continue to verbally attack one another, Secretary of Defense Mattis has been in Asia , seemingly to build an anti-Iranian coalition.
Things To Look Out For
With the USS Cole back in the Red Sea and the Iranians pressed by the Trump administration, look for an attack against the battleship in order to force Trump to resspond. Another thing to pay attention to is whether or not the US will convince Putin’s Russia to part ways with Iran. If so, the Ayatollahs will have no choice but to attack.
According to reports, Israel’s Home Front Command is preparing for thousands of rockets to hit Israel during the next war. Hezbollah is said to have a stockpile of 120,000 rockets. Many of these rockets can hit anywhere in Israel. In preparation, the Home Front Command is revamping its entire warning system. It currently divides the country into 264 polygon alert zones in which a siren is activated once the flight path and expected landing area of a missile or rocket is calculated.
According to the Jerusalem Post “Israel’s already state-of-the-art alert system is being upgraded, as the number of polygon alert zones is set to increase to a few thousand by April 2018. The increase in zones means that, as opposed to a siren sounding for an entire city, individual neighborhoods or streets will be alerted to take shelter.”
How Close Is War?
With the new detente between the Trump Administration and Putin actively changing the dynamics in Syria, Hezbollah and Iran sense an abrupt change in their relationship to Russia. The divergent interests of Iran and Russia are beginning to come to the surface as Putin looks to not only force a peace on Syria, but forge a long lasting alliance with the USA. Iran wants none of this. Its entry into the civil war had the goal of safeguarding its supply route to Hezbollah as well as creating a defacto Iranian presence on Israel’s northern border.
With Putin looking to quiet down the conflict most reports from the region claim that his next move is to force Iran out of Syria altogether. In an article published in December of 2015 we predicted this very situation:
Putin has never ascribed to Iran’s goal of establishing a Persian controlled Middle East. Russia would like to be in control of the region in as far as the oil and its military bases are concerned. A strong Iran provides Putin with a serious challenge down the road. The problem is that Putin needs Iranian troops and ground support in Syria so he does not repeat the Russian mistakes of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Right now because he has placed very little Russian soldiers into the fray, he is receiving huge support from the Russian citizenry.
While Russia needs Iranian troops, it does not need Iran exploiting the partnership in hopes it gets an edge up on Israel. Putin knows a cornered Israel could create a far bigger problem. Russia is also receiving advanced intelligence from Israel on ISIS positions.
While Iran is a formidable power, with Putin and Trump working together the Mullahs understand their ability to affect Syria maybe becoming to an end. An Iran with nothing to lose is a very dangerous Iran. Expect the Ayatollahs and their henchman Hezbollah to throw the Levant off course.
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Test Is The First Push Back
Iran fired its first ballistic missile test since Donald Trump was sworn in as president. The missile flew 500 kilometers before crashing. Bibi Netanyahu reacted immediately to the test by stating “it must not go unanswered.” The White House is still looking into the matter and will decide upon its response. More importantly, the ballistic missile test is a message the changing alliances that are catching Tehran off guard: We will not go quietly.
With the latest intelligence report indicating the Russians were behind the DNC hack, Democrats have tried to use the findings to delegitimize Donald Trump’s presidency. Governor Mike Huckabee points out that the problem with this is that, the hacking took place before anyone new who the Republican nominee was and that the report clearly states, that no actual voting machines were hacked.
President-Elect Trump also reacted to the report.
Intelligence stated very strongly there was absolutely no evidence that hacking affected the election results. Voting machines not touched!
Ultimately what we see is that instead of losing graciously it is the Democrats who are not giving into the election results. Isn’t that what they said Trump would do?
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Last night’s terror attack at an Istanbul night club is only the latest terror attack against Turkey. With 35 dead from the attack on New Years eve, the 45 killed in Ataturk airport last month, and a failed coup, it has become apparent that Turkey is increasingly growing unstable. Erdogan would like us to believe he has everything under control, but the pressures growing against his rule from within as well as pressures pushing against him from Russia and infuriated NATO members, his rule is growing far more unstable than previously believed.
In the Istanbul attack, CNN Turk reported the two attackers were dressed in Santa costumes. Some witnesses claimed they were speaking Arabic (not Turkish).
“Unfortunately, at least 35 of our citizens lost their lives. One was a police officer. Forty people are receiving treatment in hospitals,” Istanbul governor Vasip Sahin told reporters, according to the AFP news agency. “What happened today is a terror attack.”
Playing with ISIS is Like Playing with Fire
With Turkey working with Russia to shut down the Syrian war, ISIS (its once loyal proxy) is now turning on Erdogan and his government. When Erdogan opened the flood gates into northern Syria for ISIS to cross in order to destabilize the country, he never imagined Russia coming into the war. The plan was always for Erdogan to insert Turkey into Syria and Iraq as the great stabilizer. He won this role from Obama and NATO.
The Russian intervention has caused Turkey to pull back its support of ISIS and other Jihadist groups and make peace with Putin. This of course makes Erdogan into an apostate as far as ISIS is concerned and makes anything in Turkey a target for Jihadists.
Kurdish Rebellion in the Works
Russia has a very real interest in making sure Erdogan stays on the defensive. One gives time for Syria to finish reasserting its sovereignty throughout its country and second Turkey has less reason to interfere with Russian aspirations in the region, including northern Iraq and the eastern Mediterranean. Putin always works in two spheres of influence. One is overt, like we saw in Crimea and Syria. The other is a page ripped from the KGB cold War playbook and that is covertly funding and inspiring revolution. This we see in the Donbass region of the Ukraine. We are about to see it in southern Turkey, which has a solid Kurdish population itching for freedom.
Russia’s interests in the region intersect with Kurdish aspirations. It’s only a matter of time until Turkey feels these aspirations in a far more serious way.
Whether its ISIS, Russia, or Kurdish Independence, Erdogan’s Turkey is a country which is no longer safe or secure.
Moscow is not interfering with Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Syria.
One of the most interesting stories, if not the most puzzling, is the close understanding and amity between Jerusalem and Moscow. While the Russian Air Force pounds the civilian population in Aleppo on behalf of the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and his Iranian allies, Russia is coordinating the moves of its Air Force in Syria with Israel’s Air Force. Moscow is not interfering with Israeli attacks on Hezbollah convoys carrying lethal arms shipped to Syria by Iran, as the Shiite terrorist group is attempting to move these arms to Lebanon. Walla, a Hebrew language Israeli news outlet wrote on December 1, 2016 that “Russia’s silence following reports that the Israeli Air Force bombed an arms depot and a Hezbollah bound weapons convoy in Syria on Wednesday might signal ‘tacit consent’ to such action as long as they do not harm Kremlin’s interests.” Israel, on its part, is staying out of the civil war in Syria, but provides medical assistance to wounded opposition fighters combatting the Assad regime.
The Obama administration failure to act on its announced “Red Line,” (on Assad’s use of chemical warfare on fellow Syrians) and subsequently leaving the Syrian arena in Russian hands, has damaged U.S. credibility in the region. It has also encouraged Russia to take aggressive action against opposition forces supported by the U.S., and Syrian civilians.
Gen. Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian defense ministry said according to Russian RT-TV(11/29/2016) that, “Over the past few days, well planned and careful action by the Syrian troops resulted in a radical breakthrough. Half of the territory previously held by the militants in eastern Aleppo has been de facto liberated.” Konashenkov’s cynical statement referring to the Assad regime’s brutal actions in attacking (along with Russian aerial support) civilians in homes, hospitals and schools with barrel-bombs to be “well planned and careful action,” sharply contrasts with Israeli hospitals opening their doors to perform truly humanitarian work by treating wounded Syrian civilians and fighters.
Konashenkov also stressed that “over 80,000 Syrians, including tens of thousands of children, have been freed. Many of them, at long last were able to get water, food and medical assistance at humanitarian centers deployed by Russia. Those Syrians served as human shields in Aleppo for terrorists of all flavors.” That statement is turning the truth upside down. After relentless bombing by Russian and Syrian jets that have killed thousands (mostly Sunni civilians), these Syrians do not consider Russia’s role as “humanitarian.”
Putin’s Russia has saved Bashar Assad’s skin, and has done so for purely Russian interests, including air and naval bases in the Latakia Governorate of northwestern Syria, bordering the coveted Mediterranean Sea. Putin’s Russia has planned to sell, and according to Russian and Iranian sources, already delivered to Iran the highly sophisticated S-300 air defense system. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his many meetings with Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, implored the latter not to sell such weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thomas Shannon, U.S. Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, said that, “We have made it very clear to the Russians that we consider this (the sale of the S-300) to be a bad move, that we consider it to be destabilizing and not in keeping with what we’ve been trying to accomplish, not only through the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal) , but broadly in terms of our engagement with Iran.”
Putin’s Russia alliance with the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and the repressive Islamic Republic of Iran notwithstanding, to watch the warm reception Benjamin Netanyahu received in the Kremlin by his host Vladimir Putin is most certainly eyebrow raising, if not an amazing phenomenon. Considering decades of Soviet support for Israel’s enemies, and oppression of its Jews, Putin’s Russia has a rather warm spot for the remaining Jews in Russia, and satisfaction with the Russian cultural enclave in Israel. In fact, outside the former Soviet Union, Israel has probably the largest Russian speaking population. Putin felt at home when he visited Israel, first in April, 2005, as he met for discussions with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. In June, 2012, Putin was in Israel again on an official visit. This time, he unveiled the national monument honoring the memory of Jewish soldiers in the Red Army who fought the Nazis in WWII. He also met with PM Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres. Reuter’s story by Josh Cohen on January 14, 2016 was headlined, “Vladimir Putin is the closest thing to a friendIsrael has ever had in Moscow.” And yet, Putin’s Russia has continued to vote with the Palestinians at the UN, has helped Iran with its nuclear program, and sold missiles to both Iran and Syria.
Stalin, the Soviet Union murderous tyrant was one of the first to recognize the Jewish state in 1948, and sold arms through Czechoslovakia to the nascent Jewish nation. At the same time, Stalin ordered the murder of Jewish anti-fascist leaders in Russia, and made anti-Semitism a state policy. Following the Six-Day war in 1967, the Soviet Union severed diplomatic relations with Israel, and during the War of Attrition (1969-1970), Soviet pilots flew missions for the Egyptians. Israeli pilots engaged and downed a number of Soviet pilots (Israel never publicized it in order not to inflame the Russians). During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the Soviets were heavily involved with the Arab war machine against Israel, providing Egypt and Syria with huge quantities of arms, including lethal missiles.
The last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, renewed diplomatic ties with Israel in 1991. Putin’s personal admiration for Israel elevated its profile in Russian foreign policy. The Arab market for Russian arms is a lucrative one, and it is therefore pragmatism that motivates Putin along with personal sympathy for Israel and Jews. Israel’s experience with Islamist terrorism made it sympathetic to Russia in its 1999 war in Chechnya, which dealt with combatting Islamist terror. The Jerusalem Post quoted Putin telling Netanyahu that Israel and Russia are “unconditional allies” in the war against terror. In fact, Putin was one of the few world leaders to support Israel’s Operation Protective Edge against Hamas in 2014. Putin is quoted as saying, “I support Israel’sbattle that is intended to keep its citizens protected.”
In 2008, Israel made significant gestures towards Putin’s Russia. It transferred to Russia parts of the Russian Orthodox compound (Sergei courtyard) in Jerusalem. In the same year, Israel halted military supplies to Georgia (at war with Russia at the time) for a Russian promise not to sell the S-300 air-defense system to Iran. Israel has also been neutral in the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. It did not condone Russian aggression there, but seeks to avoid alienating Moscow. For the same reason, Israel abstained on a UN vote that condemned Russia for its annexation of Crimea.
The Obama administration’s open dislike for Netanyahu’s government, has forced Israel to look elsewhere for support. Avigdor Lieberman, (a native of Moldavia, part of the former Soviet Union) Israel’s former Foreign Minister and current Defense Minister greatly enhanced Russian-Israeli relations. The incoming Trump administration, seeking to reset relations with Russia, might find Israel to be a trusted go-between in dealing with Putin. This might aid the incoming U.S. administration, while at the same time further strengthen Israeli-Russian relations.
