As more fires are set around Israel and the nation’s emergency response is stretched to its max, the next phase in what is fast becoming and orchestrated series of events is likely to happen. It has been understood for a while now that Hezbollah and their Iranian sponsors would launch counter measures in Northern Israel. With Trump set to take over in a matter of weeks and Putin trying to keep balance between Israel and Iran, the window of opportunity for an actual attack is closing.
Using the fires to cripple Israeli infrastructure, especially in Haifa where large chemical plants exist is a set up for what Iran and Hezbollah plans to do next. Expect Hezbollah infiltrators with the help of the same groups that are setting fires to penetrate Israel’s Northern border and carve out an area. Reaction will be swift from Israel, but it will spark a far wider conflict in the waining days of Obama’s presidency. Given Putin’s role behind the scenes he maybe forced to play peacemaker.
The goal is not to win, but to bring Israel to its knees. So far Israel’s enemies are winning.
After many years, it appears that the brutal civil war in Syria is significantly shifting in Bashar Assad’s favor. The Syrian Armed Forces, with relentless assistance from Russia, Turkey and Hezbollah/Iran, are advancing in all areas of the country against the various rebel factions. The rebel factions including ISIS, the former Al-Qaeda affiliate, the somewhat secular/somewhat democratic rebels, and numerous other small Sunni militias, are all in retreat.
Despite the savage barbarism seen throughout the conflict, including the use of chemical weapons, execution of civilians, torture, rape and sieges by all sides, the previous long-standing general stalemate seemingly has been in the strategic interest of the State of Israel. As long as no side could win in Syria, no side could afford to be overtly aggressive to the neighboring countries.
However, all indications are that this will now change. Along with ferocious fighting in Aleppo, the Syrian armed forces and their allies are reportedly massing near the Golan Heights area, planning to eradicate the eclectic rebel presence in the area, primarily around the symbolic and strategic city of Quneitra. Now is the time for the Israeli Government to threaten to conquer Quneitra, again! (Quneitra was conquered by Israel during the “Six Day War” in 1967 and foolishly returned to Syria after the Yom Kippur War in 1973.)
Quneitra and the surrounding area
By threatening to conquer Quneitra, again, Israel will be sending a clear and real message to Assad that a permanent Hezbollah/Iranian presence there is out of the question. While the current situation of various radical jihadist forces in Quneitra is also wholly unacceptable, until now, its has been manageable. Its possible that when the dust settles, Assad will emerge victorious and strengthened. And its possible he will turn to his historic allies, Alawites, the Druze and others to rebuild his country. And maybe there is a possibility that he will look to abandon Iran/Hezbollah and forge peace with his neighbors. But for now, that’s wishful thinking – Shimon Peres style. And we’ve unfortunately seen where that can lead.
An Israeli conquest of Quneitra may become a strategic necessity and it might happen pretty soon. In the meantime, Assad should clearly understand that Hezbollah will not be opening a new front against Israel in the Golan Heights. And if he can’t understand that, then the State of Israel needs grow in size a bit and registration should be opened for the new Jewish residents of Quneitra.
The Israeli military has confirmed that the explosives found in Metulah on the border of Lebanon 3 weeks ago were indeed placed there by Hezbollah. There are two pervading opinions in the defense establishment, one is the explosives were smuggled into Israel for terrorist attacks. The other opinion believes the explosives were placed in the woods near Metulah to be used at some later date in a war with Israel.
Although Hezbollah is in no shape to fight a war with Israel while they are taking on ISIS, the newly formed understandings between Turkey and Russia may be a sign that Hezbollah can pull back and let Turkey mop up. If this is the case then Hezbollah will be well positioned to fight another war with Israel, this time with Iranian forces firmly entrenched on the Golan border.
The explosives are an ominous sign for what awaits Israel as changes in the Middle East are fast underway.
What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today. In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days. A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.
Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed. Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.
Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?
Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual. Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.
Already Out of Putin’s Hands
There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian. Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.
Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border. Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention. As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted. Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.
In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?
Yesterday marked ten years since the Second Lebanon War with Israel. The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of the Knesset marked the day with a debate on the lessons learned from the war to see if the home front is prepared for a possible future conflict.
While the chief of staff for the IDF`s Home Front Command, Brig. Gen. Dedi Simchi, says of the 257 local authorities, 235 will be able to handle – with varying degrees of success – a future emergency situation, and that an “excellent culture of emergency has developed in the national home front,” several MK’s argued that a lot of work is needed to prepare for a future conflict.
MK Mordhay Yogev (Habayit Hayehudi) said the government must budget plans for fortification and the evacuation of civilians, if needed. “A war can – God forbid – leave us with thousands of people killed and damage to infrastructure to such an extent that we will have a hard time recuperating,” he stated. ”If we will not invest five billion shekels in fortification, we will sustain 50 billion shekel`s worth of damage.”
MK Eyal Ben-Reuven (Zionist Camp) said a conflict in the north ”is almost inevitable” but the region ”is not prepared for a war with 1,200-1,500 missiles falling daily.”
Committee Chairman Dichter lauded the Home Front Command for drawing the necessary conclusions immediately after the war, and said the issue of the local authorities` preparedness for a future conflict must be addressed.
”We must not leave question marks that will be exposed only in an emergency,” he said, adding that ”Hezbollah`s current [dire situation] gives us time to prepare the north, and this must guide us from an operational perspective.”
