Tag: China

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ISRAEL MUST CHOOSE: China’s Planned Base in Pakistan Becomes a Serious Challenge to India

The Daily Caller has reported on a planned Chinese base for Pakistan on the Arabian sea.  This development comes along with the growing cooperation between the two countries via the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Daily Caller reported the following:

“In the last few months, there have been persistent reports of Chinese survey teams in the areas west of Gwadar, a seaport considered critical to the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the linchpin to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an effort to achieve Chinese commercial dominance in South Asia and as a connection to its strategic interests in the Middle East and Africa.

In the last two weeks, meetings held between high-ranking Chinese and Pakistani military officers indicate that a new Chinese military facility will be built on the Jiwani peninsula between Gwadar and the Iranian border. The plan is said to include a naval base and an expansion of the already-existing airport on the peninsula, both requiring the establishment of a security zone and the forced relocation of long-time Balochi residents.”

Image Source: Wiki

The prospective Chinese military base in Gwadar would effectively give the Chinese direct access to the Middle East, but also strengthen Pakistan, a mutual rival to India. This development places Israel into a very uncomfortable position far more so than the Doklam dispute between China and India several months ago.

With Israel and India developing a long-term strategic partnership, Netanyahu’s government must decide how to navigate its relationship with China, which has been growing in terms of economic partnerships and Chinese investment into Israel’s infrastructure (i.e. the Ashdod port).

Small border disputes between India and China are one thing, but Chinese encirclement of India, while bolstering avowed enemies of the Jewish state is a completely different level.

In the coming months Israel must figure out how it relates to an expanding China that threatens to upend global norms and place Israel at risk.

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Israel Captures Military Shipment Headed for Gaza

Israel caught ships bound for Gaza smuggling military grade uniforms and boots to Hamas in the Ashdod port.  The Government Press Office reported that “Ashdod port customs personel discovered the largest ever consignment – including thousands of items – of military clothing including vests for holding military equipment.”

As part of Israel’s Gaza blcokcade, the Ashdod port customs checks every Gaza bound vessel for military equipment.  In this case the workers struck big.

The Government Press Office reported that the Gazan importer of the consignment, originated in China.  The importer was meant to receive it via the Kerem Shalom crossing, but do to the type of shipment all items were handed over to the security establishment.

 

Image Source: Israel Tax Authority (Ashdod customs)

 

Israel Tax Authority (Ashdod customs)
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Civil War in the House of Saud?

Reports are flying from Riyadh that as King Salman nears abdication, there is a potential coup set to go in effect in order to deprive his son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from taking over.

In response to the Crown Prince’s fears Saudi Arabia arrested between 16-30 people in a broad crackdown across the Kingdom. The arrestees though were all members of the regime, yet loyalists of the ousted former Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef.

Why would the monarchy, which prides itself on collective unity in the face of ensuring its own survival feel the need to go after one another.

 Andrew Korybko of the Oriental Review gives the following intriguing possibility:

Iran and Qatar are close with Russia and China, and the latter two Great Powers are actually enjoying a renaissance of relations with Saudi Arabia right now. While one might expect this to make Tehran and Doha jealous, the opposite is true – Moscow and Beijing’s developing high-level strategic partnerships with Riyadh are designed to bring balance to the Mideast by weaning the Kingdom away from Washington and slowly but surely integrating it into the emerging Multipolar World Order, which will never be perfect or without friction, but is still a step in the right direction. In order to appreciate what’s happening, one needs to be reminded of a few things that have happened this past year when it comes to Saudi Arabia’s relations with Russia and China.

Concerning Moscow, Riyadh agreed to an historic OPEC output deal with Russia last year and renewed it a few months ago after it expired. The Saudis are also cooperating with the Russians in encouraging Syria’s so-called “opposition” to merge into a unified entity for facilitating peace talks with Damascus. Foreign Minister Lavrov was just in the Kingdom last week, and King Salman is expected to visit Moscow sometime next month. As for China, Beijing signed a total of over $110 billion of deals with Saudi Arabia in the past six months alone in an effort to assist the Crown Prince’s ambitious Vision 2030 program of economic modernization. It’s that initiative more so than anything else which holds the danger of inadvertently destabilizing the country’s internal affairs because of the opposition that it’s come under from some of Saudi Arabia’s many radical clerics who are against the social consequences of its reforms.

Bearing all of this in mind, it’s worthwhile to revisit the question of who has an interest in destabilizing Saudi Arabia right at the moment that it’s turning away from the US and towards Russia and China, timing their subversive efforts to coincide with a prolonged leadership change and an economic transition. By all indicators, those aren’t the hallmarks of an Iranian or Qatari operation, but the red flag for an American one.

US, Russian, and Chinese Neo-Colonialism in the Middle East

The fast changing word is in a great transition between a post Cold War uni-polarism to a 21st Century multi-polar chaos of various competing interests circling around energy control and market influence. Both the Russians and Chinese are thriving off of a Middle East in chaos and have learned like the US did that the Arab rulers have no loyalty to their countries.

These rulers, when given protection and money have the loyalty to the world powers providing them the money and arms to control their local “peasants.” The Russians and Chinese have figured out that the key to US dominance in the Middle East and therefore oil profits is the defense pacts Washington has used with the Saudis and Gulf States to ensure the dollar is constantly inflated due to its use as the sole oil currency.  This is now changing. Even more so, the Russians and Chinese as pointed out in the Oriental Review have gone out of their way to lure the Saudis away from America.

By creating balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Russians and Chinese are in the process of playing both sides to ensure continued control of the region.  The American security establishment used the same policy in both encouraging Iran to push ahead across the Middle East, while using that threat to encourage the Saudis to stay within the American orbit.

The Saudis are trying to figure out how to work with both, but unlike Israel, the House of Saud has no real value to it other than a colonial apparatus to rented out to the highest bidder.

Where Does this Leave Israel?

With the Saudi family in the midst of an internal implosion, Israel has little room to maneuver.  The prevailing assumption has been that the blocs would remain the same and actually consolidate in opposition to the Iranian threat.  The insertion of Russia and China as the new power brokers has scrambled this assumption.

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China’s Latest Strike Against Petrodollar is Another Shot to Kill US Hegemony in the Middle East

China Petrodollar

China took another major step towards the inevitable end of petrodollar dominance and the further internationalization of the yuan. Via this report:

‘China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry.
The contract could become the most important Asia-based crude oil benchmark, given that China is the world’s biggest oil importer. Crude oil is usually priced in relation to Brent or West Texas Intermediate futures, both denominated in U.S. dollars.
China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.’

Critical to this move is the decision by Saudi Arabia:

‘If Saudi Arabia accepts yuan settlement for oil, Gave said, “this would go down like a lead balloon in Washington, where the U.S. Treasury would see this as a threat to the dollar’s hegemony… and it is unlikely the U.S. would continue to approve modern weapon sales to Saudi and the embedded protection of the House of Saud [the kingdom’s ruling family] that comes with them.”
The alternative for Saudi Arabia is equally unappetizing. “Getting boxed out of the Chinese market will increasingly mean having to dump excess oil inventories on the global stage, thereby ensuring a sustained low price for oil,” said Gave.’

If Saudi Arabia feels that China can act as an effective shield against its Iranian adversary, it most likely will forgo this ‘embedded protection’ from the US and acquiesce to Chinese demands. It may feel greater pressure as Qatar recently restored diplomatic relations with Iran thereby strengthening the Iran-Turkey-Qatar alliance.

Chinese Relations with Pakistan / Afghanistan

China has made inroads with non-oil producing nations in the region. Primarily, it has a growing economic relationship with Pakistan. While challenges of political and economic isolation exist, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor commonly known as CPEC has grown larger than its initially planned $46 billion investment plan announced in 2015. The investment is potentially crucial to China’s Belt and Road Initiative as it could provide a link from China through Europe and Africa. In addition, China has aggressively pushed development of a railway linking China and Afghanistan that is aimed to cut travel time between the two nations from six months to two weeks. Although the project has run into problems, the importance of this railway cannot be understated. Back in September, Chinese Ambassador to Afghanistan Yao Jing went so far to say, “Without Afghan connectivity, there is no way to connect China with the rest of the world.”




Gold Moves

Curiously, on August 21, US Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin became the first government official to visit Fort Knox in 43 years. Just prior to his visit, he said to an audience (hopefully in humor) ‘I assume the gold is still there…It would really be quite a movie if we walked in and there was no gold.” After his visit, he tweeted ‘Glad gold is safe!’. Unfortunately, it would have been more reassuring to some if there had been a full audit (i.e. serial numbers per each gold bar).
In addition, Germany recently announced that its central bank completed the transfer of $27.9 billion worth of gold bars back to Frankfurt three years ahead of expectations. The gold was held by the Federal Reserve in New York and France’s central bank to hedge against political and currency risks.

China’s Strike Against Cryptocurrency Threat

Yesterday, China effectively banned all organizations and individuals from raising funds through ICO activities. Also, all banks and financial institutions in China will not be able do any business related to ICO trading. Cryptocurrency prices dropped sharply as a result. While intended to protect investors from fraud, the decision may have been timed to strike back at the US – Japan alliance to transition to a world reserve currency led by Bitcoin. It would not be in China’s interest to allow this transition to occur smoothly (if at all). It is unclear how committed China is to blockchain technology as its primary goal is to prevent any financial instability in its markets as it attempts to undermine US hegemony.

US – China Comparison

In spite of the numerous deficiencies of Chinese government behavior (especially towards its own people), its acumen in establishing relationships throughout the Middle East without using military force can be characterized as highly impressive. Contrast that with the US and its consistent failed policy of invasion in the name of ‘fighting terrorists’. Sixteen years of US occupation has left Afghanistan as a failed state where the Taliban control roughly 40% of the country and opium production has risen from 185 tons in 2001 to 3,300 tons in 2015 despite the US spending $8.4 billion in counter narcotics programs. Equally troubling is President Trump’s recent decision to break his campaign promise and raise troop levels in Afghanistan. His deference to the military industrial complex has garnered meaningless praise from many of the same people who have supported these failed policies.
As Democrats and their compliant media hyped the fake Russian hacking narrative (updated to Russian collusion), Russia has only become more unified with China to counter US power. While China has economic issues of debt and ghost cities, the US is gripped in a state of chaos as it has:

  • An illusion of a healthy economy (due to central bank manipulation) and in contrast to the reality of a failing economy with fake economic data published by a corrupt government (Even David Stockman, former Reagan administration budget director, asks ‘How can there be “full-employment” at 4.4% unemployment claimed by the BLS and the Fed’s monetary central planners, when there are 103 million adults without jobs?’)
  • Dire circumstances for many as anywhere from 49% of Americans to 78% of all American full-time workers live paycheck to paycheck
  • A likely cost of $150 to $180 billion from Hurricane Harvey that will be added to a national debt of approximately $20 trillion
  • Death threats made by ‘deep state’ members against its president on a regular basis
  • An Attorney General that is too scared or compromised to follow the rule of law and proceed with justice and who has no problem instituting a widely criticized a policy that abuses its citizens

Conclusion

The repercussions of a Saudi move to side with China should not come as any surprise but will affect everyone in the world. For years, Dr. Ron Paul has warned about the end of the petrodollar system causing the US dollar to lose its world’s reserve currency status and to subsequently collapse. As a result, Russia would immediately demand the end of a US presence in Syria. This could be followed by the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, Turkey and other countries. In the midst of great uncertainty, some may use the event to their advantage. The Kurdish population could feel emboldened and seize the opportunity to declare an independent state. In this case, Israel would be the beneficiary as a new Kurdish state would counter the looming threat from Iran.

Originally Published on News with Chai.

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What’s Going On Behind the India China Standoff in Doklam

The standoff between India and China in the Doklam plateau has now expanded past two months with increasing signs that a full-scale war cold break out between the two countries.  The area in question is a small piece of land in dispute between China and the small mountain kingdom Buhtan in the Himalayas.

Given the strategic location of Doklam, resting near to India’s Siliguri corridor, the dispute has drawn in the Indian army on the side of tiny Bhutan. Yet, there is more to the maneuver.  China has been a thorn in India’s side ever since it decided to boost Pakistan’s armed forces.  As the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir continues to simmer, China’s move is seen with great apprehension by India.

Map of conflict zone.

More than this, China’s regional ambitions in both the Himalayas on its Southwestern border and the South China Sea to its Southeast have begun to draw in multiple powers concerned with Chinese expansion.  It is not secret that Modi in India and Trump in the USA have an open and friendly relationship.  This relationship between India and the USA is important in rolling back Chinese expansionism.

Will There Be War in the Himalayas?

With tensions rising between China and India over the Doklam, many pundits believe that war is inevitable, but there is another possibility and that China is far weaker than most believe.  This is where the bravado of Narendra Modi comes in.  Understanding the Chinese mentality of never entering a war it is not assured of winning is the key to pushing back against Chinese imperialism.

“Security is our top priority,” Modi said in a speech before thousands at the landmark Red Fort in New Delhi as the country marked the 70th anniversary of the end of British colonial rule.

“Be it the sea or the borders, cyber or space – in all spheres, India is capable and we are strong enough to overcome those who try to act against our country,” the Hindu nationalist leader declared.

Bhutan Will Not Be Another Tibet

The Chinese government will only subjugate those it knows are weaker.  We saw this in the 1950’s when the Chinese conquered a weaker Tibet and still occupies the country. In fact it is from Tibet that the Chinese are moving against Bhutan.

With India on the rise regionally and globally, China has limited options in the region.  Bhutan wisely asked the Indian government to enter the kingdom on their behalf and doing so scrambled China’s strategy of preying on a weaker neighbor.

If Modi’s gamble similar to Trump’s on the Korean penninsula works, it reveals that the Chinese will only go so far in the current global turbulence to attain their goals.

Israel in the Middle

With Israel and India upgrading their relationship to that of a strategic partnership, Israel effectively placed itself in the middle of India and China.  Yet, the upgrade itself is an indicator that Israel has perhaps begun to view what was once seen as a strategic realignment with China as little more than an economic move.  The growing Indian, Israel, and US alliance may prove formidable in pushing back an ascedent Russia and China in the future.

Israel is now the lynchpin towards a growing realignment in the region by way of its contacts, intelligence, and technology.  These relationships throughout Africa, Kurdistan, central Asia, and India have the potential for reshaping a post unipolar world.