Turkey is on a roll, but Erdogan’s dreams of restoring the once mighty Ottoman Empire may smash directly into the Middle Eastern reality. In my podcast I make sure to touch briefly on some history, but get into what I think makes Erdogan and co. so dangerous to an already chaotic Middle East.
Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.
All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan. Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?
#FLASH Turkish Islamists on the March towards Kurdish Districts of #Istanbul – Civil War pending?
— Avro (@Avro_Arrow) July 16, 2016
None of this should be a surprise. Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years. True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions. Erdogan will attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.
There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin. Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan. Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds. With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.
How Can they Do This?
The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message. Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas. Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.
If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.
There are times when rulers reach a zenith in their power. Some of them fall away and others find a way to reverse course and rise again. The failed coup in Turkey over the weekend marks the lowest point Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It also marks that moment that Erdogan shifts Turkey from a secular democracy to a neo-sultanate once and for all.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the failed coup to do what he has always wanted to do. He has wasted no time in purging the Turkish courts and military of secular members and tightening his grip on the country.
The real question though is why did this coup involve only junior members of the military? If it had such support how could it fail so miserably?
There are many answers, but one likely possibility is that Erdogan himself could have staged the coup in order to give credence to his wanton desire to take full control over Turkey. If this seems far fetched, Erdogan has been accused of false flag attacks before. One such incident was uncovered last year and reported at Shoebot.com: “Twitter whistleblower Fuat Avni claimed on Monday that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ordered the intelligence agency head to stage a false assassination plot against his son Bilal Erdoğan in order to blame the Gülen movement.”
Others have reported that Erdogan himself has been quite open on the need to use a false flag operation to make an excuse for sending troops into Syria.
The coup attempt in the last 24 hours has been very weak, lending fuel that this was indeed a false flag attack.
Erdogan has always been quite clear in seeing his role as one of a reinstated sultan, presiding over an expansive rebuilt Ottoman Empire. Since he has become president, Erdogan has increasingly solidified control, while expanding Islamic influence throughout the Republic of Turkey. No one should forget that it was Recep Tayyip Erdogan who made the following statement: “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers…”
Russia Will Not Wait
If it becomes clear that Erdogan is in fact strengthening his grip in a far more complete way than he already has, Russia will not hesitate to make moves to check Turkey in order to ensure Erdogan can do little harm to Putin’s influence in the region.
In the coming weeks the rapprochement moves that had been underway between the two countries may very well become frozen if Putin feels the need to put the Turkish ruler back in his place.
Israel will Stay Neutral
Despite reconciliation between Israel and Turkey, the last thing Israel wants is a newly emboldened Erdogan. If Erdogan is really about to transform Turkey into a sultanate, Israel will think twice before restarting weapons sales to its military. With Russia and Israel building a closer friendship the two will be in coordination. This means that Israel is quietly positioning itself in opposition to NATO’s strategy in regards to both Russia and Turkey.
The USA is Backed Into a Corner
Obama quickly mumbled support for Erdogan. This, even as Erdogan is holding troops USA troops hostage until the United States extradites Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, the Turkish preacher Erdogan claims is behind the coup.
#BreakingNews US Airmen and women held hostage at #Incirlik AFB until #USA hands over #Gulen #Trump #Clinton #POTUS https://t.co/nnudg77cZP
— Avro (@Avro_Arrow) July 16, 2016
Labor Minister Soylu added: “as long as US doesn’t give us F.Gulen, they are responsible of the coup attempt in Turkey.”
Serious accusations— ilhan tanir (@WashingtonPoint) July 16, 2016
It is too early to see what Obama will do, but most probably nothing. Afterall, Turkey is a NATO ally and is needed as a forward base to bomb ISIS. Look for Gulen to be extradited or this to be settled quietly behind the scenes.
Erdogan has always been focused on spearheading political Islam at a regional level. The question isn’t whether he wants to be a sort of neo-sultan, but how. I think we have just seen the first steps in Erdogan’s strategy.
In his first presentation before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, the new chief of Israel’s Shabak Agency (also knows as the Shin Bet), Nadav Argaman, explained that while it seems the number of terror attacks have decreased in the last few weeks, there are still growing threats in Judea and Samaria.
Since the beginning of the terror wave which began in October 2015, there have been more than 300 “serious” terror attacks and attempts. These include approximately 180 stabbings, 90 shootings, and 30 car-ramming attacks. During this same period, security forces successfully thwarted approximately 240 serious attacks including 11 suicide bombings, 10 kidnappings and over 60 shooting attacks. Most of these attacks, explains Argaman, were carried out by Hamas.
Data provided by the Shin Bet shows that the number of attacks have been decreasing. October 2015 constituted 620 attacks (11 killed and 80 injured) while June 2016 constituted 103 attacks (5 killed and 21 injured.)
The decline in the number of attacks has been explained, in part, by the high number of attacks prevented, improvement in early warning capabilities of the security forces, and targeting suspected terrorists and their immediate family members. All this created a feeling among Palestinians in the West Bank of hopelessness in further escalation, which is also backed by public opinion polls conducted by the Palestinians.
Argaman warned that despite the decline in actual attacks, the number of threats from the West Bank is now higher than before the escalation. “This trend indicates that the situation in the West Bank today is still very volatile and adverse events (such as tensions on the Temple Mount, significant attacks, etc.) may lead to a renewed outbreak.
Regarding the Gaza Strip, Argaman said that the current calm is deceiving. Hamas is currently under political and strategic distress, so it is just a matter of time before Hamas starts shooting rockets into Israel again. While the overwhelming majority of the Gaza population is unhappy with Hamas, they are unlikely to overthrow the Hamas government due to fear of Hamas, financial dependency of Hamas, and fear of not having a better alternative. They do not want a situation where ISIS would replace Hamas.
Argaman also pointed out that over 40 women were involved in the recent terror wave. These women would take up arms in what can be called a suicide attack, knowing they will probably get killed as a result. Almost each of these women had internal family conflict over their sexual misconduct. They would carry out these attacks as a way to redeem themselves and as a way for their families to receive a monthly stipend from the Palestinian Authority.
(Originally published on Israel Hayom)
You can take the Europeans out of the former colonies, but you cannot take the colonialism out of the Europeans. That much is clear, at least as far as the European Union is concerned. In an interview with Israeli journalist and TV anchor Eylon Aslan-Levy, EU Ambassador to Israel Lars Faaborg-Andersen was asked why the EU supports the French peace initiative when the Israeli prime minister has called for direct negotiations. “Why doesn’t the European Union simply pressure Abbas to take up Prime Minister Netanyahu’s invitation?” asked Aslan-Levy.
Faaborg-Andersen replied, “Because I think experience has shown that the parties are not capable on their own to reach a stage where they are able to sit down and negotiate. There is a need for a third-party involvement and I think that the Paris conference was a recognition of that fact [sic] that there was need for international focus on this issue that has been somewhat dormant for some time, I mean the peace process, and I think this was the motivating factor behind the French initiative coupled with the fact that we are seeing a constant deterioration of the situation on the ground bringing us further away from a two-state solution rather than closer to [sic].”
The Europe of the postnational European Union no longer invades other peoples’ countries in order to colonize them, but it still uses all its powers — limited and toothless as they are — to invade how other nations should think and feel about the world, and to impose its distinct European view of how the world should spin for the rest of us.
We all know how hard it is to break an old habit, and the ideological parts of colonialism still come very naturally to the descendant of the old Europe — even if the EU mistakenly believes that being ostensibly riddled with post-colonial guilt and inviting half the world’s migrants into its own backyard somehow exculpates it from all its past and present sins.
For those still in doubt, Faaborg-Andersen’s reply that “the parties are not capable on their own” is clear evidence of the racism and cultural condescension — such characteristic parts of the colonialist project — still being a very potent factor in European policies, despite all assurances to the contrary for the past half century. The “natives,” i.e., the Jews and the Arabs, are incapable of solving anything on their own, which is why we ostensibly need the wisdom and superiority of the European Union to guide our ignorant and misguided steps in this world. Just who do the Europeans think that they are?
Even though the European Union is the Palestinian Authority’s best friend, and although the latter can do no wrong according to the former, let there be no doubt that the PA is merely a tool, a means to an end, in the hands of the European Union.
Had the PA’s enemy not been the Jews, but instead other Muslims, Christians or Yazidis, the European Union would have been out of there, taking its many billions of euros with it, faster than you can say “postcolonial guilt.” If you doubt this contention, take a hard look at all the internecine Muslim strife and the ongoing genocides against non-Muslims in the Middle East and Africa. The European Union is nowhere to be seen, its billions of euros entirely absent and its need to impose solutions completely gone missing.
In case you were wondering, European racism is still very much present even in the company of its best buddies in the PA. Only here it is the subtler racism of low expectations. Anything that the PA does, no matter how murderous, vile and inhumane, never elicits anything but the mildest form of vague condemnation, if any, from the EU.
In the interview with Aslan-Levy, the EU ambassador could not bring himself to condemn the standing ovation that the European Parliament gave Abbas for his blood-libel speech two weeks ago in Brussels, instead outrageously stating that there were probably also European parliamentarians who did not appreciate what Israeli President Reuven Rivlin had to say in his speech to the same body.
The moral narcissism of the European Union is no better than the moral narcissism of its colonialist European predecessors. It’s just a different century.