Category: Regional Analysis

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How Serious is the Emerging Alliance Between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus?

The answer to the above is… very serious.  I wrote the following over a year ago in my article: Israel is Moving Beyond Turkey:

The alliance stands to quickly change the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical reality, providing a sense of stability in a region engulfed by radical Islamic chaos. The burgeoning partnership is a testament to Israel’s increased standing in the World, despite the claims of isolation due to a lack of movement in the “peace process.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu is departing today to meet with the leaders of both Greece and Cyprus in Thessaloniki, Greece, for the third G2G meeting and for the third trilateral summit between the leaders of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus.

According to reports agreements are expected to include tripartite cooperation in the fields of energy, communications, environmental protection, innovation and scientific research and development.

The emerging East Mediterranean Alliance not only strengthens Israel, but changes the geo-political reality in Europe as the EU continues to collapse.  Already Israelis find it easy and affordable to travel to Greece and Cyprus for vacation.  In terms of joint military and energy exploration, the three countries are suited to work together to create stability in the face of Middle Eastern chaos. The alliance offers Greece and Cyprus an alternative to the centralized power held by the EU in Brussels.

As world alliances begin to shift away from the post cold-war model, rising economic and technological power like Israel have begun to provide regional stability. So are we seeing an emergence of a new trading zone? Don’t be surprised.

 

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Has the Trump Administration been Arabized?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_btn title=”FOR $5/MONTH YOU CAN SUPPORT ALLAN’S WRITING” color=”primary” size=”lg” align=”center” button_block=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paypal.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebscr%3Fcmd%3D_s-xclick%26hosted_button_id%3DPBTQ2JVPQ3WJ2|||”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The struggle between the US Deep State and the Trump administration can probably be felt the most in foreign policy, especially when it comes to Israel. It is no secret that Donald Trump wants to arrive at a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. Despite the goal, administration or at least many in the administration believe the method rto arrive at such a coveted agreement should be far different than those attempted before.

According to a Channel 20 report, the White House has presented a set of principles to restart negotiations between both sides. The principles include:

  • Tempering construction in Judea and Samaria
  • Security measures in coordination with Jordan and the Gulf States 
  • Normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states

The thorny issues of Jerusalem and the refugees will dealt with after real normalization takes place.

The same report cites Israel as wanting to add two more principles to the list:

  • Cessation of incitement to violence on the part of the Palestinians
  • Cessation of payments to terrorists and their families

The important part to this report is the fact that the White House is demanding that real normalization between the Sunni Arab world takes place first. At first glance, this appears to be a break through in approach. However, lets keep in mind that the Saudi Peace Plan, which calls for a full Israeli retreat to the arbitrary green line expects the same thing. There is an argument to be made that Trump has succeeded in calling for a change in order in that this normalization must come first, but at the end of the day normalization can be reversed if the Arabs feel Israel is not “retreating” fast enough.

Any connection between an Israeli retreat and the ethnic cleansing of its Jewish citizens to normalizing ties to Arab states who only yesterday were funding Hamas, ISIS, and the Muslim Brotherhood smacks a severe disconnect with the issues at the core of the conflict.

With all of that being  said the Trump administration seems intent on battling back the State Department’s classic approach on the subject of Israel-Palestinian peace by disconnecting Foggy Bottom from the process altogether. The truth is that any process will have negative effects, yet there is something to say in battling back the Deep State, which has been embedded at the State Department for decades.

The key person to look at it in all of this is the President’s long time lawyer and confidant, Jason Greenblatt.  As one source involved in the White House said:

“There’s basically only one guy – Jason Greenblatt. That’s it. There’s no office, there’s no bureaucracy.”

 

Greenblatt is an orthodox Jew and deeply connected to the right-wing in Israel. The crafting of the above principles clearly came from him. Once again, this seems excellent for Israel. On the other hand, the State Department, which has been Arabized since the 1940’s has clearly convinced the Trump administration by way of Rex Tillerson and Gen. McMaster that the Arab peace proposal should be considered as an important part of an overall framework.

So how much has their influence crept into an overall policy by the President?  This is hard to know and won’t be known until negotiations reach a decisive phase where Trump’s loyalties to one of the sides will be tested.

Regardless of this, Tillerson’s comments to a Senate Committee regarding Palestinian payments to terrorists should be noted and done so with concern:

“They have changed their policy,” Tillerson said, referring to the Palestinians. “At least I have been informed they’ve changed that policy and their intent is to cease payments.”

 

The problem with this statement is that the Palestinians admit themselves that they did not change their policy concerning payments to terrorist families.

“There have been talks about making the payments in a different way, but not ending them,” said one official, according to Reuters who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on discussions held with the Americans. “They could perhaps be labeled differently,” he said, suggesting the description “martyr” could be dropped, but he added: “They are not going to be stopped.”

 

Israel concurred and added:

“Israel is unaware of any change in the policy of the Palestinians, who continue to make payments to the families of terrorists.”

 

This purposeful obfuscation presents a challenge to those who understand that the peace process is nothing more than a globalist imperative to break down Israel’s ancestral rights to Land with a false occupation narrative. Will Tillerson and McMaster win out? That depends on the coordination between Greenblatt and Israeli officials who are being very careful to point out the Arabs true reasons for normalizing relations with Israel.

At the end of the day, if Donald Trump wants a deal no matter the cost and the Arabs continue to shower accolades on him, then the peace process he hopes to invigorate will turn out to be a disaster.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Are Post ISIS Alliances Already Taking Shape?

As the Raqqa operation gets underway, with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) ploughing forward into the “capital” of ISIS, the terror group’s leaders and fighters are said to have already travelled to safe havens along the middle Euphrates.  With the American backed SDF bogged down in strett to street fighting, Iranian paramilitary units are pouring in from where they helped fight to free Mosul to Eastern Syria to destroy the heads of ISIS.

This struggle for land as ISIS collapses is forming the beginnings of regional boundaries that in essence brand new lines between ethnic units as well as defined frontiers of regional alliances.

Rising up from the rubble of ISIS are two clearly definied groupings.

The first consists of Russia, Iran, Syria (Assad), Turkey, and Qatar.  None of these countries trust eachother, but work together under a common interest in battling back America as well as seeking a piece of what they see as a rising Middle Eastern hegemony.

The second group is made up of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Kurds and Israel.  This grouping sees the first group as an existential threat and has been conjoled to work together by the Trump administration.

With the fall of ISIS a matter of weeks, the real battle will come after. Iran has used the chaos to reach to the Israeli border.  They have shown the ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies. Besides Iran, Hezbollah can now turn its sites on Israel.

The Middle Eastern alliances now taking shape even before the last of the caliphate are buried not only put Iran im the drivers seat, but increase the likelihood of war sooner rather than later.  The Syckes-Picot agreement, the document based colonialist and neo-colonialist pinciples set in motion by France and Germany is becoming irrelevant as a new set of states and mini states take shape.

As the chaos spreads throughout the region and beyond, the Saudis backed by Israeli tehnology will attempt to push back on the Shiite gains in order to create a buffer between the Kingdom and its enemies. The Kurds backed covertly by Israel and overtly by America will be encouraged to push forward in order to stabilize Northern Syria and Iraq and break the link between a power hungry Turkey and their allies in Qatar.

Be prepared the Great Game of the Middle East is about to begin. It could very well be far more destructive than the havoc ISIS has caused.

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Did the US Create ISIS?

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made the following statement yesterday:

“You (the United States) and your agents are the source of instability in the Middle East…who created Islamic State? America … America’s claim of fighting against Islamic State is a lie.”

Iran’s Supreme leader went on to claim that Iran has proof that the US did indeed create ISIS.

As I wrote last year, there is overriding evidence that this is indeed true.

Department of Defense documents that have been declassified in the last year confirm that the Obama administration encouraged the flow of weapons into the moderate rebel groups in Syria, knowing they would eventually fall into Jihadists.  This worked well as it helped grow an independent Sunni state in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq.  Of course, when this state, later to be renamed ISIS refused to play by the rules, the game had turned dangerous.  Far worse was the West’s Sunni Caliphate than Assad or Iran.  Now to destroy the Frankenstein they built, the USA is forced to work with its sworn enemies.

Furthermore, it was Qatar and Obama’s willingness to work with Qatar’s leaders in helping to sow chaos that makes the current conflict between the Saudis and their allies and Qatar, Turkey, and Iran so interesting. The theory has been that the Obama administration sought to create a new Al-Qeida that would pave way for a Muslim Brotherhood run Sunni Middle East, it has been Russia, Iran, and Turkey that has benefited most from the chaos.

Instead of an anti-Iran Sunni caliphate, the Iranians have used the chaos to reach the borders of Israel.  Turkey has attempted to use the chaos to wipe out the Kurds, who have successfully repelled Erdogan’s advances. In fact, one can see a pattern far more sinister at play.  Obama, knew that the chaos could be used to give a now friendly Iran the ability to create real stability in the Middle East.

What about the DOD document above?  For Obama and his pro-Iranian advisers, the reasons are not important.  They understood the DOD had their own reasons to build ISIS. Obama only had to encourage it in order to use its creation to give Iran the go ahead to create their version of “stability” in the Middle East.

Iran, their proxies, and Russia are now in control of the Northern Levant, a situation no one thought possible a few years ago. ISIS became Obama’s perfect foil to give the Shiites what they always wanted. The Middle East Obama handed Trump on January 20th became a region in chaos, whose only savior appeared to be Iranian hegemony.

Trump is Dismantling Obama’s Chaos Creation

President Trump understood that ISIS was a dual creation of NATO, mainly the US and Turkey, which is why he has spent weeks demolishing the ISIS network with serious bombing missions, which Obama never meant to carry out. More than this, the Trump administration is actively arming the Kurds to destroy ISIS, no matter the consternation felt in Turkey. There is no question ISIS is going down. The only question is if Obama’s true master plan, that of Iranian control in the region can rolled back or not.

With that, the Ayatollah is correct, but it is his country who has truly benefited from the America’s 44th President’s misguided world vision.

 

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IRAN ON THE MOVE: Mullahs Send Warships to Oman, Food to Qatar

The Iranian based Tasnim news agency reported that Iran is sending two warships, an Alborz destroyer and a Bushehr logistics warship to Oman on Sunday.  They will depart from the port city of Bandar Abbas. The move comes as tensions continue to rise between much of the Sunni Arab world and Qatar. The report says that the ships will continue from Oman to the Gulf of Aden, near Yemen.

Iran is continuing to step up its help to Qatar by flying food items to the isolated country.

“Following the sanctions … on Qatar, IranAir has so far transported food and vegetables to this country by four flights,” Shahrokh Noushabadi, head of public relations at Iran’s national airline, was quoted as saying by Fars news agency.

Iran has been sending over 100 tons of food per day since the sanctions took effect.

Qatar only has one land route and that is through Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it sits completely inside the territorial waters of Saudi Arabia, which means it is completely reliant on the Saudis for imports unless they are made by air.

Will Yemen Heat Back Up?

Although out of the news. The Yemen war, which pits Saudi backed government forces against the Iranian backed Houthis has largely been ignored by the world media.  With Iran on the move again, will their retaliation against Saudi Arabia  be in Yemen? Seemingly Iran has the ability to increase its military adventures in a few areas. One would be against Israel through its proxy Hezbollah and the other is certainly Yemen.

With Iran openly backing the Qataris against Saudi Arabia, the region is quickly moving to war and increased chaos. The challenge for the world community is that this war is taking place in two of the most important shipping lanes, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Any expanded war has the potential to affect shipping as well as spill over into a Sunni/Shiite wide conflict.

Iran has made its move. Are the Saudis ready to invade Qatar?