Category: Palestine Falling

Posted on

Operation Jordan Is Palestine, Can it Happen?

“Building On History Will Help Establish A Palestinian Jordan While Ensuring Israel’s Sovereignty Over All of Its Soil”  

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

INTRODUCTION:

Operation Jordan Is Palestine (OJIP) complies with the Trump Administration’s proposed Executive Order(s) that dealing with Terrorism, Terrorist Supporters and Human Rights, as well as the UN relative to the Palestinian Authority (PA), while bringing new thoughts and options to the Middle East Peace Process. Overall, OJIP supports a two state solution based on current international agreements and actions, and will not only provide secure and safe borders for the State of Israel, but will provide Palestinian people with land, education, jobs and economic security. Additionally, it will usher in important governmental changes in Jordan, including the elimination of a Dictatorship that tortures, oppresses and restricts his own subjects while supporting terrorist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood. Additionally, it will eliminate a Dictatorship that clearly violates Western Interests by supplying America’s enemies with money, heavy equipment and military supplies. As such, OJIP will save lives and taxpayer money, eliminate terrorism and increase democracy.

HIGHLIGHTS: a few examples 

  • OJIP complies with the Administration’s proposed Executive Order that will cease support for entities that support in terrorism or violate human rights.
  • OJIP complies with the Administration’s proposed Executive Order that ends financial support for UN programs that allow full participation by the PA.
  • OJIP recognizes that Jordan is the legitimate Arab state for Palestinians and accepts Israel’s identity as a Jewish state with full sovereignty over all of its soil west to the River Jordan including the West Bank/Judea and Samaria.
  • The OJIP plan aims to provide a practical, cost-effective, and feasible solution that leads to peace based on international treaties by which both the Jewish and Palestinian Arab existence and sovereignty are secured.
  • A recent poll shows that 63% of Palestinians in the West Bank would like to move or relocate somewhere else due to the bad economic and inhumane conditions brought by the Palestinian Authority
  • OJIP recognizes that the Muslim Brotherhood is openly operating in Jordan, and is an avid business partner of the Hashemite royal family, not a competitor.
  • Once the interim government is in the palace, it shall enhance the economy through transparency and simply not stealing the country’s funds.
  • OJIP has been created on the belief that the plan’s tenants will (and can) be accomplished without any new expenditures by the US and her allies (re-categorization or allocation of existing monies, combined with a phase out schedule is all that is needed).
  • The US has provided more than $20 billion on economic and military aid to the Jordanian Monarchy since 2000, as well as several billions to the Palestinian Authority. None of this money has brought peace any closer to reality, let alone enhanced the livelihoods of Jordanians and Palestinians. [http://mondoweiss.net/2015/11/spends-billion-foreign/ ]
  • Economically, the OJIP plan will create jobs, expand the economy, and ensure that Foreign Aid money is spent properly, saving taxpayers money.
  • This plan will help restore the Arab Palestinians right to Jordan, which has been ruled by an outsider family of 88 people from Saudi, the Hashemite’s.
  • OJIP protects American political, military and business interests in Jordan, while seeking to expand (and include) any and all parties’ that Jordan’s allies see fit to use in military, intelligence, and counter-terrorism cooperation operations.
  • OJIP does not change Jordan’s governmental structure(s). Rather, OJIP removes the royal figureheads while keeping the government and military bodies intact. This avoids any form of Arab Spring drama from happening.

 

OPERATION JORDAN IS PALESTINE – OVERVIEW

Main Document

 

OVERVIEW: Operation Jordan Is Palestine (OJIP): A Pathway to a Lasting Peace in the Middle East

Historically, achieving peace in the Middle East has been difficult and elusive and has negatively affected all interested parties in the region socially, politically, and economically.  Needless-to-say, all previous attempts to establish peace between the Palestinian Arabs and the Jews have failed costing the US and her allies huge amounts of funds as well as lives wasted on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides.

The OJIP seeks the implementation of the original historical agreements, which recognize 78% of British Mandate of Palestine as an Arab State, which is today’s Jordan and 22% of as a Jewish state, which is Israel, including all of the West Bank. [http://maurice-ostroff.tripod.com/id350.html]  And it does this through reforming Jordan and providing it with a leadership that will follow and comply with international law while creating a humane state with zero-Islamization.  As a result, OJIP is not seeking a regime change in Jordan, but simply an evacuation of the palace occupants, replacing the 88-member Hashemite family with a new leadership, while keeping the Jordanian regime, government structure, army, and all public bodies intact. This will re-establish Jordan as a reformed country and an economically and politically attractive homeland to Palestinians all over the world, including those in Israel (and the West Bank) and thus secures Israel’s sovereignty over all soil West to the River Jordan, including the West Bank.

The OJIP plan aims to provide a practical, cost-effective, and feasible solution that leads to peace based on international treaties by which both the Jewish and Palestinian Arab existence and sovereignty are secured. To accomplish this, the OJIP builds on the historical fact that both today’s Israel and Jordan are parts of the original British Mandate for Palestine. British Colonial Powers designated these lands as the future Jewish homeland in the 1917 Belfour Declaration. They were later reauthorized by the Faisal-Weizmann agreement, a covenant by which Arabs agreed to as the full “Judaization” of the land West to the River Jordan and the Land East to the river Jordan to become a homeland for the Arabs.

Therefore, OJIP recognizes that Jordan is the legitimate Arab state for Palestinians and accepts Israel’s identity as a Jewish state with full sovereignty over all of its soil west to the River Jordan including the West Bank/Judea and Samaria.  This plan also recognizes that most of today’s Jordanian population identifies as Palestinians. In fact, based on a US Embassy-Amman cable, Palestinians make more than 80% of Jordan’s population and all of those hold Jordanian passports. Additionally, Palestinians in the West Bank all hold Jordanian passports including all the Palestinian Authority’s leaders.  The Jordanian Citizenship Act, Article No.2, identities “all non-Jewish Palestinians” as natural-born Jordanians.  As a result, the majority of Palestinians in the West Bank travel with a Jordanian passport not a Palestinian one.  Taking this one-step further, thousands of Palestinian refugees in Syria hold Jordanian passports but are systematically denied ‘the right of return” to Jordan by King Abdallah, a matter that has brought international criticism on the King. [https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/08/07/jordan-palestinians-escaping-syria-turned-away] In addition, all Palestinian refugees in Lebanon could simply claim Jordanian citizenship by the Jordanian law itself; Article No.2, nonetheless, Jordan’s monarchy will not allow that.

Supporting this, a recent poll shows that 63% of Palestinians in the West Bank would like to move out or relocate somewhere else due to the bad economic and inhumane conditions brought by the Palestinian Authority. [http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Despite-surging-Hamas-popularity-Gazans-frustration-with-conflict-grows-405520]  Despite having Jordanian passports, King Abdallah II, restricts their entry to Jordan and harasses them upon even limited trips to their homeland, often forcing them to spend a day being interrogated by the Jordanian police.

As of today, Jordan’s Palestinians remain the majority in the country, with US Embassy-Amman cable confirming over 80% of 6.4 million Jordanian citizens. There are about 650,000 Syrian refugees registered in Jordan [https://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=107] and less than 200,000 Iraqis* (all have to register with UN or risk being deported upon any contact with Jordan’s authority, therefore the figures are accurate) despite the regime’s exaggerations of “millions of refugees already in the country”. In addition, those refugees have not shifted demographics against Palestinians, and cannot make any political difference because they are considered non-citizens who cannot vote. [*Jordan’s government “estimates that there are 500,000 Iraqi refugees in Jordan. An “unclassified” US Embassy Amman cable, which Jordan’s Opposition leader had worked on, in 2008, shows the actual figure to be less than 165,000 and many have returned home to Jordan then, UNHCR shows only 60,000 Iraqi refugees registered with it in Jordan, which confirms Jordan’s government is trying to exaggerate the actual number, most likely to get more aid].

Jordan’s royal family contains less than 100 individuals (88 to be exact), and for some unknown reason, they spend most of their time outside of the country. King Abdallah II, unlike his father, does not have much control or influence over Jordan’s army of intelligence. Those are under the direct, yet unpublicized, control of the CIA, The US Defense Intelligence Agency, the US Central Command, and the US Department of Defense. On top of that, the US subsidizes Jordan’s army to the tune of over $400 million a year. Additionally, the USA has just finished building “Jordan’s Great Wall”, a wall that runs along the country’s borders with Syria, Iraq, and Israel, who has almost finished a one-billion Dollar wall along the western Jordanian border.  With the king’s constant absence from Jordan, it has become fact that the royal family has nothing to do with Jordan’s security and the structure of the Jordanian state itself; in fact, their interests are focused on collecting taxes as absentee property owners. On the other hand, they are the reason Palestinians are still being called refugees, and the reason the Palestinians still don’t have a state of their own. Simply put, the Hashemite’s officially and openly call all 5.9 million Palestinians in Jordan as refugees “who must return to Palestine someday”.

On the other hand, Jordan’s Palestinians are not interested in “the right of return to Palestine”, as a US Embassy-Amman cable, titled “the Grand Bargain” explains they are interested in having civil rights in Jordan over return to Palestine. [https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08AMMAN391_a.html]

Further, support for Jordan’s royal family has vanished, the East Bankers or what some call as “Bedouins” have led the protests the king since 2011. The international media have documented this numerous times. “East Bankers” despise the Hashemite regime, and this conflict has escalated into countless events of violence and unrest. All major “Bedouin” cities have rebelled against the regime at least once since 2011, and the king has failed to either bring peace or any form of satisfaction for those. Therefore, the “Bedouins” will not defend or stand by the royal Hashemite family if they leave the country.

At this point, we would like to make it clear that the OJIP Plan is not calling for “a regime change” in Jordan. That is because the Jordanian Opposition Coalition and their supporters believe that the Hashemite royal family is not the true regime and head of state for Jordan, unlike Libya and Syria. Rather, to millions, the ruling family in Jordan are viewed more as occupants of the palace and tax collectors who mistreat their subjects, while the important agencies – security and intelligence systems – run independently and effectively under the supervision of US.  This is very similar to what is going on in Egypt. When Mubarak was in power, he was a very strong president. Yet the security and military systems that were in place were never compromised when Mubarak left, nor could Morsi change those. And even when Morsi was toppled, the security and military bodies kept the country intact and the borders with Israel safe, simply because those are too close to US Intelligence and military, and so are Jordan’s security agency.

This plan sees the necessity to simply let Jordan’s royal family evacuate the palace and move somewhere else, but rather suggest that they “not return to Jordan” from one of their ‘vacations’ or almost-fulltime stays in the West.  The Jordanian “state” and “agencies” are to remain untouched and intact, only the Palace will be evacuated and new occupants shall be installed through an interim government ushered in by Jordan’s army, which falls under the full control of the US.

Additionally, despite $1.6 billion given to Jordan’s king by the US alone, very little seem to filter down to Jordanians and as for Syrian refugees; the king’s government does not give any form of handouts, welfare, or education for the Syrian refugees. In addition, despite the heaviest taxation of Jordanians in modern times, there are no free services of any kind provided, except of course for the most basic – education. This has not stopped the king and his family from raising prices and taxes on consumer goods to fund the king’s pet projects, like the maintenance of his fleet of private jets that are used by his family for fun and travel. This has led to a stalled economy with a debt ratio of over 90% to GDP and the king for some reason, demanding more financial help from the West that goes into his Swiss accounts and leaves millions starving, homeless, unemployed, and uneducated.

At the same time, the royal family has been systematically playing both ends against the middle. On one hand, they openly tell the west that they are working hard to fight terrorism; yet on the other hand, countless media reports have documented the Royal Family’s theft of US and British weapons, as well as heavy equipment. Additionally, the media has document the sale of these items to ISIS, and other rouge elements in addition to being one of the largest oil buyers of ISIS oil as confirmed by global media.  [https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/middleeast/cia-arms-for-syrian-rebels-supplied-black-market-officials-say.html?_r=0], [http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3682655/87-000-stolen-British-bullets-hands-jihadis-cache-ammunition-stolen-Army-training-camp.html].

What makes the situation intolerable is that they are using profits from the transactions to promote blaming everything on Israel/Jews, and thus are promoting anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, anti-American and pro-Jihadi incitement through their Muslim Brotherhood partners as well as the king’s state media. [http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news/middle-east/israel-and-the-middle-east/op-ed-jordans-king-promotes-anti-semitism-15772]  At this point, it is worth noting that the terrorist group Hamas, which has killed many Israelis and Americans falls under the direct administration of the Muslim Brotherhood of Jordan, in fact, Hamas is officially Jordan’s MB’s “Palestine Chapter”. The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is a part of the regime, a fact that is fully-detailed in this plan. [http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/jordans-king-supports-isis-yes-you-did-read-this-right/2016/01/19/]. That makes the royal family of Jordan not America’s allies.

Finally, this plan recognizes that the Muslim Brotherhood is openly operating in Jordan, and is an avid business partner of the Hashemite royal family, not a competitor. In fact, historically, the MB has supported the Hashemite regime through the so-called Arab Spring, especially during the largest revolution in Jordan’s history in 2012. This revolution was launched by Jordan’s seculars, [http://www.timesofisrael.com/preaching-the-gospel-of-liberalism-to-the-jordanian-street/]  particularly the JOC. Nonetheless, the MB stood against it and publicly announced: “We won’t allow the king to fall”.[ https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3464/jordan-trouble]  And to this day, MB supports the jailing and torture of seculars by the king’s government. On top of that, the king has allowed the MB to take over the Jordanian parliament through proven-rigged elections. As a registered charitable organization in Jordan, the MB operates their own TV station in Jordan (which calls for killing Jews and Americans), have the nation’s fourth largest licensed daily newspaper that promotes hatred, and has announced many times over the years that “we are against a regime change” and that “the king is the man for us”.  In fact, the king’s own minister of political reform, Bassam Hadaddeen, announced, “The Muslim Brotherhood is a part of the regime”. For the record, most of MB’s Board of Directors are Bedouin East Bankers, not Palestinians, while Palestinians in Jordan, despite their avid hatred for Israel, hate the MB more for its alliance with the king.

This plan seeks to execute a feasible two state solution where Jordan is the natural homeland for all Palestinians, and Israel becomes sovereign over all soil west to the River Jordan.  This could only happen if the corrupt, terror-supporting and double-speaking Hashemite royal family leaves Jordan. This could happen anytime, Jordanians often revolt against the regime and then the king’s police force quiets them down, simply because the much stronger army won’t announce support for the revolutions, and American media ignores the unrest in Jordan. This plan sees a peaceful “evacuation” of the palace could softly happen if the US influences the Jordanian army and security agency to stand with the revolution the next time it breaks out.  The security agencies and army are already securing the country without any influence from the king who is mostly abroad, and nothing would happen if he simply announces he will not return.  Once that happens an interim government of pro-peace with Israel seculars could be ushered in, as was the case with every single government in the Middle East that has had a revolution in the last 70 years. Only that the US in most cases has failed to use its influences to secure that the right people are installed in interim governments.

Once the interim government is in the palace, it shall enhance the economy through transparency and simply not stealing the country’s funds. Therefore, the economy shall thrive and the US would not have to spend a cent more than it already does in Jordan. With a thriving economy, Jordan’s interim government will simply enact the Jordanian laws allowing Palestinians in the West Bank to relocate to Jordan, specially that 63% of them already which to move somewhere else. Those shall have an interest in living and working in an economically thriving Jordan. Work opportunities as well as a rewarding benefits/welfare system will be made available to those by the new interim government. All Palestinians refugees around the world would be welcomed to return to Jordan upon mere inaction of the Jordanian citizenship act, which already recognizes all Palestinians as citizens of Jordan.

The interim government will also offer job opportunities and economic incentives to Jordanian East bankers AKA “Bedouins” and West Bankers/Palestinians as well to secure acceptance and content from both.

The low-to-mid-level public servants of the Palestinian Authority will be recruited to relocate to Jordan and work with the interim government with better salaries. The fact that President Trump could stop PA’s funding will make it go bankrupt and may not be able to pay salaries to its public servants. Those will relocate to Jordan, this will sustain the new Jordan’s position as Palestine and bankrupt the Palestinian Authority of its human capital and expedite its demise.

After Jordan’s economy begins thriving, the interim government will issue a counterterrorism act banning all Islamists and affiliates of radical Islamist organizations from running for any office. Sisi of Egypt did the same. This wills secure the Muslim brotherhood have zero chance in winning any parliamentary seats or running for office.

Parliamentary elections will be held, followed by presidential elections. The interim president is the most likely to win as he or she will have access to the state media and organizations to secure his victory. In addition, Jordanians, will vote for improvement of their economic condition and the interim president could bring that easily if he or she does not steal like the king does.

 

Chaos is already expected in the Palestinian Authority territories because of in-house fighting in the PLO. If President Trump and the UK stop funding the PA, it will collapse. Israel could begin taking over PA areas to secure them from unrest and terror acts, eventually taking over the entire West Bank. This will happen while the new Jordan is thriving and welcoming Palestinians from the West Bank with open arms and offering them jobs and help.  After the PA officially ends and the New Jordan’s position is empowered, Israel could announce full official annexation of the West Bank.

Per Jordan’s citizenship act, Israeli Arabs, who mostly identify as “Palestinians with Israeli passports”, are also Jordanian citizens eligible for citizenship. The new Jordan will welcome them and recruit them for jobs and the thriving economic opportunities that would become in the country once the royal family leaves and the money they steal is directed towards the economy. While Israel honors and values its Arab citizens, this plan intends to defuse the demographic problems straining peace by absorbing as many Arabs in Israel as it could.

Posted on

Modi’s Arrival to Israel Next Week Marks a Pivot for Both Countries

The arrival in Israel of Narendra Modi, will not only be the first visit of an Indian Prime Minister, it will mark a huge shift in India’s foreign policy as the Hindu country home to one billion people will openly pivot to the only Jewish State. India has always kept a balanced approached in the Middle East in order to build relationships with Israel and Arab countries.  When Modi was elected in May of 2014, he entered office under a wave of populism and Hindu nationalism.  Many Indians are wary of their Shiite neighbors in Pakistan as well as the dispute over Kashmir.

Modi made no secret of his admiration for Israel and saw his long time relationships in the private sector with Israeli tech companies as a blueprint to build a serious long term partnership on.

But perhaps the most important part of this trip is not where Modi is going or what Defense and other development deals he signs with Israel it is where he is not going.

An article in the Indian Express expresses the pivot perfectly:

“The fact the PM will not visit the Palestine territories – especially Ramallah, which is only a few kms away from the Israeli Knesset – is a major departure for India’s foreign policy. Essentially this indicates that India is ready to break from the past and de-hyphenate its relationship with Palestine from Israel. The Ministry of External Affairs has been advocating this strategy for some time, but New Delhi’s hesitation has cut across party lines. Balancing Israel and Palestine had become the hallmark of India’s diplomatic dance since relations were normalised in 1992.

It is in this context one should read the important Indian shift vis-à-vis Israel. During Abbas’ recent visit, Modi announced India’s support to the Palestinian cause and said that there should be “a sovereign, independent, united and viable Palestine, co-existing peacefully with Israel.” In the previous decade, the Indian statement was always caveated with the phrase, “with East Jerusalem as the capital”, but Modi chose to omit it altogether.”

India’s shift away from a Palestinian centric foreign policy will have deep ramifications on the Palestinian leaderships ability to play an anti-colonial PR game. For years third world countries saw India as a beacon for other former colonies. It is no accident that in recent years as Africa has grown closer to Israel, that India and Israel have also forged a unique alliance.

The more “Palestine” is seen as the real artificial presence residing in the heartland of the Jewish people subsisting from international assistance, then real peace can be achieved.  Modi’s visit destroys the “Palestinian” narritive and recalibrates the focus on India’s 2000 year old relationship with Israel and the Jewish people. This burgeoning partnership enhances Israel’s position as a world leader and boosts development in India.

Modi’s focus on building relationships with countries that are likeminded and valuable to the giant Hindu superpower will not only boost Israel, but rehape world geopolitics for years to come.

Posted on

Are these the Final Borders Between Israel and “Palestine?”

This map has been circulating the web lately as possible outline for final borders between Israel and a demilitarized “Palestine.”

Image Source: Al- Monitor and Partners for a Progressive Israel

 

While the official policy of Israel Rising is to not support any sort of concessions to the creation of a sovereign Arab state within Israel’s heartland, the above borders would win the majority of Israel’s support. It should be noted that no “Palestinian” leader will ever support these border.  If anything the above map may very well be a long term interim deal where Israel annexes the grey and yet “Palestine” agrees to call these disputed in order to gain a state.

The problem with this approach is that Palestinian leaders will never truly end the conflict.  Any Israel is a bad Israel because a Jewish State essentially means that it is they who are the interlopers.  Afterall the entire Land of Israel is has always been historically Jewish.  Only due to the colonial asperations of the Roman Empire as well as Jihad of 7th and 8th Century Muslims were the Jews forcibly removed from their homeland.

By accepting the historic claims of Israel, the Palestinians render their claims baseless.

The above map is just another in a long line of giving in to international pressure no matter how attractive the final borders may seem.

Posted on

Gaza Proves the Two State Solution Does Not Work

Originally published as: INTO THE FRAY- Gaza:The ultimate indictment of “two-statism”

The real humanitarian solution to the plight of Gaza lies not in its reconstruction, but in its deconstruction

…the prospective Palestinian state is bound to be a failed and repressive entity, and a permanent danger to its Israeli and Jordanian neighbors    Elliott Abrams, in a briefing to the Middle East Forum, June 15, 2017

 

Hamas wants Israel to supply it with electricity “or else”, but there is no reason why Israel should submit to Hamas extortion. It is not Israel’s obligation to satisfy the needs of a population that continues, through its ongoing support of Hamas, to pursue Israel’s destruction. Efraim Inbar, Gaza in the Dark Is Not So Terrible, June 18, 2017

 

What is the point of raising and spending many millions of dollars to rebuild the Gaza Strip just so it can be destroyed in the next war? It’s a harsh question. Given the region’s tragic history, it is also inevitable. –New York Times Editorial, October 10, 2014

 

Once again Gaza is in the news.

 

Once again the specter of “humanitarian disaster” hovers over the population on the coastal enclave, the hapless victims of the hopelessly ill-conceived endeavor to foist statehood on the Palestinian-Arabs.

 

Inane and iniquitous idea

 

Ironically,  this time the deteriorating plight of the Gazans was not thrust into the media spotlight because of any  Israeli initiative—or indeed, not even because of any Israeli response to Palestinian aggression—but rather at the behest of  the nominal head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.

 

It was, after all, at Abbas’s request that Israel reduced even further the already scant supply of electricity to the beleaguered territory, making life even more onerous for the unfortunate population of the Gaza Strip—apart, of course, from the vastly wealthy cliques of connected cronies.

 

Clearly, the power cuts were merely one additional measure of misery the average Gazan has had to endure since the fatally flawed formula of two-statism was instigated almost a quarter-century ago.

 

This inane and iniquitous idea has wrought almost every imaginable hardship on the residents of this ill-fated strip of land: Spiraling unemployment; collapsing infrastructure, domestic tyranny and fratricidal factionalism.

 

Depending on which report one chooses to lend credence to, unemployment has reached 40%-60% and is particularly severe among the young and the more educated segments of the population; up to 96%  of the water resources are reported to be unfit for drinking; the only power station has shut down because of a lack of fuel following, the refusal of Abbas to foot the bill; the supply of electricity has been cut from four hours a day to three; the lack of sewage treatment and disposal is becoming critical.

 

These then, are all the bitter fruits of two-statism.

 

Trying to solve the problem by reintroducing its cause?

 

Of course, one of the most absurd aspects of the discourse on the future of Gaza and how to handle the grave and growing problems of the area, is the prevailing platitude that the governance of the area should somehow be wrested from Hamas and restored to Abbas’s Fatah, whose corrupt and dysfunctional governance was the reason for Hamas’s ascendance in the first place. As if reinstating the cause for the current problem will somehow solve it.

 

Unsurprisingly, the Palestinian-Arabs, particularly those in Gaza, seem decidedly skeptical as to the efficacy of such a measure. Indeed, recent Palestinian polls point to wide spread dissatisfaction with Abbas and Fatah. Overall, in the Palestinian-administered territories, almost two thirds feel that Abbas, who has been in office three times his elected term, should resign, while 70% hold this view in Gaza. Indeed, the fear that Hamas may well win a new election is widely considered the reason that none have been held since 2005.

 

Moreover, it is widely acknowledged that without Israel’s military presence in Judea-Samaria, the Abbas regime would be speedily disposed of, as it was in Gaza. Accordingly, there is little reason to believe that, were Abbas’s control over Gaza reinstated, it could endure without restoring IDF presence there as well—hardly something advocates of Abbas’s return seem to advocate.

 

Nothing unpredictable, nor unpredicted.

 

The tragedy is that there is nothing about the Gaza fiasco that was not entirely foreseeable, and indeed, foreseen.

 

Over the last half-decade, I have written a slew of articles warning of the futility and folly of trying to maintain autonomous Arab rule in Gaza. But, perhaps more significantly, over a quarter-century ago (1992) I penned an article, Why we can’t dump Gaza, predicting precisely the course of events that would unfold if Israel abandoned Gaza—events that should have been obvious to anyone with the even slightest grasp of the most rudimentary elements of political science and related disciplines.

 

I warned: “The inevitable implication of Israeli withdrawal [from Gaza] can be ignored only at great peril to Israelis and Arabs alike”, and explained why such a measure would lead to the take-over by extremist elements like Hamas: “In the ensuing political vacuum [left by Israeli withdrawal], the most radical and violet elements in Gaza would undoubtedly seize power. In the absence of recognized institutions of government, all the more moderate elements would be speedily eliminated, either politically or physically”—as indeed they were!

  

I cautioned as to the impact of inadequate infrastructure: “The Gaza Strip does not have the means to sustain any semblance of durable economic life. Its water resources are increasingly being salinated through over-use, it has no land reserves, no indigenous sources of energy or power, no existing infrastructure for the conduct of international trade…”

 

Accordingly, I pointed out: “A total separation between Israel and the Gaza Strip …to stop the flow of ‘undesirable’ workers in search of the livelihood their immediate environs cannot provide” would precipitate widespread unemployment and resultant turmoil: “A denial of employment would inevitably increase the frustration and bitterness of the beleaguered population and its potential for incitement, lawlessness and violence”.

 

Foreseeing economic privation, violence and international censure

 

I identified the difficulties Israel would have in maintaining security and preventing smuggling of armaments particularly along the maritime border and Sinai frontier: “…the IDF would only be able to supervise along the northern and [eastern] approaches to the Strip. It would have no control over smugglers wishing to enter from the west (via the sea) or the south (via Sinai)”.   

The result was not difficult to forecast: “ The combination of these elements is a certain formula for explosive social and political unrest, feeding on a deepening sense of hopelessness, misery and deprivation of the local population, feelings which will  inevitably be directed against the most obvious and convenient target – Israel.”

 

The diagnosis of what was to follow was unequivocally clear, making operations such Cast Lead, Pillar of Defense and Protective Edge unavoidable: “…our southern settlements and towns will be the targets of frequent attacks, which will compel Israel to retaliate.”

The predicament of waging “asymmetric” war was not hard to foretell.

 

I wrote:  “But how and against whom? Without a military presence, the IDF will not be able to identify and apprehend those responsible…”, and warned of the ramifications of “collateral damage” and consequent international censure: “Air strikes or artillery shelling on civilian population centers will cause heavy casualties among the dense, destitute masses in whose midst the attackers would conceal themselves”, asking trenchantly: “How would world opinion react”.   

 

Consequently, I predicted: “Unilateral withdrawal from Gaza will do nothing to ease the socio-economic plight of the local inhabitants, nor will it reduce the politico-security problems of Israel; rather it will be likely to exacerbate them.”  I leave it to the reader to judge to what degree that prediction has been borne out.

 

Underscoring the untenability of two-statism

 

Accordingly, just how hopeless the doctrine of two-statism is, especially with regard to Gaza, should have been abundantly clear from the get-go for anyone with an iota of intellectual integrity and a smidgeon of analytical ability. But, if for some reason, anyone required further proof, Abbas’s initiative to impose further hardship on his harrowed kinfolk should provide it, removing all shadow of doubt.

 

For it served to highlight two things (a) The dismal plight of the Gazan population, who along with the residents of Jericho, were the first to be subjected to the egregious experiment of thrusting self-government on the Palestinian-Arabs, two-and-half decades after the start of that experiment; (b) the callous disregard that the Palestinian-Arab leadership has for the welfare of their people. After all, calling for the reduction of power to Gaza is a measure that will negatively impact virtually every walk of life, from the functioning of medical equipment through sewage treatment to desalination plants for production of scarce drinking water.

 

The miserable circumstances in Gaza—in terms of the physical conditions that prevail, the quality of governance, and the priorities of the leadership—offer prospects for the future that, charitably, can only be described as bleak—underscoring just how untenable the dogma of two-statism has shown itself to be.

 

Israel’s counter-productive largesse

 

Indeed, the three introductory excerpts encapsulate the enduring and endemic hopelessness that is Gaza.

 

The first (from Elliot Abrams) relates to the nature of the political entity that can be expected to emerge from any process of two-statism. After all, there is little reason to believe—and certainly no evidence that the empirical record has produced in the last quarter century—that the prospective Palestinian-Arab state will be anything but a homophobic, misogynistic Muslim-majority tyranny. Indeed, even its most fervent proponents have yet to produce anything approaching a persuasive argument to have us believe otherwise.

 

The second (from Prof. Efraim Inbar) relates to the nature of the population that will inhabit the political entity and the kind of conduct we can expect from it. As Inbar remarks: “…the Gazans cannot be exempted from responsibility for the consequences of Hamas’s actions…Hamas remains popular in Gaza, and all polls show that Gazans support continued violence against Israel. The Gazans are…not good neighbors, and…do not deserve Israel’s sympathy.”

 

The third (from the New York Times editorial) relates to the nature of the prospects the territory has for its future—and futility of maintaining the belief that there is any point to sustaining the two-state enterprise. For it raises the “harsh” but “inevitable” question: “Given the region’s tragic history” what is the point of further reconstruction efforts?

 

In this regard, Inbar echoes this trenchant question. Taking it a little further he asks: “What moral justification exists that compels Israelis to assist people who support an organization intent on destroying them?”

His answer: “There is no strategic or moral reason why Israel should supply free electricity to Gaza.”

 

Humanitarian Solution to Humanitarian Crisis: Deconstruction not Reconstruction

 

Inbar is of course entirely correct.  The Israeli government would do well to heed his counsel, and, taking its cue from Abbas’s demand, begin a phased withdrawal of all services and goods it currently provides the Palestinian Arabs, while offering the non-belligerent residents generous relocation grants, so that they can seek better, more secure lives elsewhere—outside the “cycle of violence” that the leaders wreak upon them regularly.

 

As I have pointed on numerous occasions, this will allow them to extricate themselves not only from any resultant “humanitarian crisis”, but also from the clutches of the cruel, corrupt cliques that have led them astray for decades.   

 

Thus, the real humanitarian solution to the plight of Gaza lies not in its reconstruction but in its deconstruction.

 

Indeed I raised this proposal in my 1992 article, by asking: “What, then, is the solution to this festering and intractable problem?”

I began my answer by pointing out: “It is essential to realize that no measure, whether total annexation or total withdrawal, can be reconciled with either Israel’s security or the welfare of the Arab population there”.

 

I clarified “This is not a call for a forcibly imposed racist ‘transfer’ by Israel, but rather for the initiation of  an appeal to enlist international support for the rehabilitation elsewhere of hundreds of thousands of refugees. They are the victims of war, held hostage…by those purporting to be committed to their welfare”.

 

In conclusion, I urged: “Instead of expounding the merits of a policy of dismantling Jewish settlements or abandoning the fate of Jewish settlers to some autonomous Arab regime (both antithetical to the Zionist ethos), the…leadership charged with responsibility for the conduct of Israel’s foreign policy would do well to devote its efforts to marshalling international pressure in support of this humane and historically imperative enterprise.”

Imagine how different things might have been, had my call been heeded, instead of waiting 25 years–for the ultimate indictment of two-statism.

 

Posted on

Jared Kushner is in Israel, Is Peace Actually Happening?

Jared Kushner landed in Israel just under 24 hours ago and after rushing to visit the grieving Malka family over their daughter’s murder on Shabbat he wasted no time going to visit Bibi Netanyahu.

The purpose of Kushner’s visit is to push Trump’s “ultimate deal” to broker Israel-Palestinian peace.  To casual observers it appears that there is really momentum towards a peace deal.

Perhaps there is, but let’s look at five reasons this could all be just a show or even more importantly a deal that has nothing to do with the Palestinians:

  • Trump agrees with Israel’s rights as the sovereign in Jerusalem, “Palestinians” will never agree to that.
  • Trump does not really care about “settlements,” “Palestinians” believe they must go.
  • Trump has opted for regional normalization first before any agreement on final status issues.
  • If Mahmoud Abbas, the “Palestinian” strongman agrees to any deal he will be killed by his own people.
  • Trump agrees that Israel should have full security control over Judea and Samaria.

Given the above list, peace does not seem likely anytime soon.  So what’s really going on?

Interim Deal and Normalization

Trump’s team is pushing normalization first and then an interim solution leaving out final status issues for the foreseeable future. This is essentially a rendition of Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Stability Plan. The interim deal will see some sort of non contiguous Palestinian State arise in Area A and B where they already have some sort of autonomy.  C will continued to be controlled by Israel.  “Settlements” will continue in two different capacities.  In the main blocks there will unrestrained building.  In the rest of the Jewish communities in Area C building will continue to allow for natural growth.

Furthermore, Israeli communities across Area C will be given the same political status as any other Israeli community.  This has already been established by Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked earlier in the month.

So they would Abbas or the Sunni Arab world go for any of this?

Abbas doesn’t want a real deal for reasons mentioned above. He does want a long-term status quo with an upgrade for the territory he manages.

The Sunni world has never liked the Palestinians.  They have created a “cause” in order to push back on Israel.  Now they need Israel and they need the “cause” they created to quiet down.  The interim plan is the way for this to happen.

Look for Kushner to push the beginnings of an interim solution, a solution that will be so long-term it may just be permanent.