Iran Runs into Problems with Donald Trump’s Administration…Is War Closer Than We Think?

The recent Iranian ballistic missile launch has brought a fiery response by the Trump Administration.  National Security Adviser Mike Flynn declared Wednesday: “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.”

Flynn’s pronouncement is the first push back by the new White House against what has been flagrant violations by Iran of the nuclear agreement they signed last year with the major world powers. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Administration officials, while providing few specifics, said Mr. Trump has begun a process of reviewing current U.S. policy and is “considering a whole range of options,” including tougher sanctions. Asked if military force also was one of the options, the officials didn’t rule it out.”

With Houthi rebels backed by Iran revving up their attacks on Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah preparing for conflict with Israel, the Trump administrations much needed push back against Iranian aggression maybe be the last maneuver before the opening of a wider conflict.  It is no secret that Secretary of Defense Mattis is working hard to construct an anti-Iranian coalition of moderate Sunni states, Israel, and Turkey. Russia has become a key player in the shifting alliances as Putin looks like he is ready to cut Iran loose.

In the coming weeks expect the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Aden to continue to heat up as both sides reach a boiling point.

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BREAKING NEWS: Russian Ambassador Shot in Turkey, Will There Be War?

[This post has been updated]

News out of Turkey is reporting the following:

Russia’s ambassador to Turkey has been assassinated by an off-duty police officer in front of terrified witnesses allegedly in retaliation for the crisis in Aleppo. -Mirror


The attacker fired once in the air and then shot at the ambassador. Although it is too early tell who is behind the attack, the assassination attempt has the potential to start a dramatic increase in hostilities between Russia and Turkey.  Both nations have shared their share of animosity over the years.  Recently, a Russian aircraft was shot down by Turkey, killing the pilot.  Yet, the assassination attempt if traced to pro Erdogan would take relations to a new low, possibly igniting a regional conflict.

Bill Kristol is referring to the assassination Arch Duke Ferdinand, which triggered World War One.

Below is the situation right after the shooting. One can see the ambassador lying in a pool of blood.

Will There Be War?

If there was ever a trigger for a regional war this would be it.  Russia has been looking for a reason to shot down shipping traffic in the Bosphorous for some time and could use this to do it.  With weeks left to Obama’s turn, get ready for his administration to milk this for all its worth in terms of NATO involvement, especially since he knows Trump won’t aid Turkey.

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Arabs Threaten War if Trump Moves US Embassy to Jerusalem

In light of Trump’s announcement to nominate David Friedman as the next US Ambassador to Israel, Arab leadership in Judea and Samaria under the Palestinian Authority has threatened war and chaos over the fact that the appointment likely means Trump is very serious about moving the US embassy to Jerusalem.

“I look David Friedman and Trump in the eye and tell them — if you were to take these steps of moving the embassy and annexing settlements in the West Bank, you are sending this region down the path of something that I call chaos, lawlessness and extremism,” Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Secretary General Saeb Erekat said, according to AFP.

The Palestinian Information Center reported that Sheikh Ikrima Sabri, head of the Higher Islamic Council in Jerusalem declared that moving the US embassy to Jerusalem would be a declaration of war.

“If we assume that this alleged pledge has been realized and carried out, this means that America recognizes that Jerusalem is the capital of the Jews and has thus declared a new war against the people of Palestine, and also against the entire Arab and Muslim nations,” Sheikh Sabri stated.

The fiery comments don’t seem to have deterred the inocoming Trump administration’s determination about moving the embassy.  The only question is how and which date.

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Is the F-35 Deal a Dud for Israel?

Despite the fanfare put on by the Israeli government upon the delivery of the first F-35s this past week, the plane itself may not be the deal the Israeli cabinet made it out to be. Since the beginning of the plan’s production in 2001. In the most extreme, critics call it the “million-dollar disaster,” while more moderate views claim it is over-hyped and far too expensive.

Below are some statements from notable industry experts:

“Even before the downgrades, some analysts questioned the F-35′s ability to defeat newer Sukhoi and Shenyang jets.”

-David Axe, military correspondent.

“It’s as if Detroit suddenly put out a car with lighter fluid in the radiator and gasoline in the hydraulic brake lines: That’s how unsafe this plane is…”

-Pierre Spray

In a report by POGO, a government oversight committee, Winslow Wheeler Director (2002-2014), Straus Military Reform quoted various pilots about the F-35:

There are additional problems for detecting threats in the all-important visual mode: the ejection seat headrest and canopy “bow” (where the canopy meets the fuselage) are designed in such a way as to impede seeing aircraft to the rear: one pilot commented “A pilot will find it nearly impossible to check [their six o’clock position{to the rear}] under g.” Another commented, “The head rest is too large and will impede aft visibility and survivability during surface and air engagements,” and “Aft visibility will get the pilot gunned [down] every time,” referring to close-range combat. (p. 18.)

Indeed, DOT&E stated explicitly “The out-of-cockpit visibility in the F-35 is less than other Air Force fighter aircraft.” (p. 17.)

To summarize in different words, the helmet-mounted display and the F-35 system does not present an enhanced, clearer view of the outside world, targets and threats to the pilot; instead, they present a distorted and/or obstructed view.  This is one of the most serious backward steps that the entire F-35 system takes, and it presents an even greater threat to the survivability of the F-35 and its pilot than the astounding evidence of the flammability of the F-35 (all versions) in the recent analysis of another DOT&E report by military analyst Lee Gaillard at Counterpunch.

In the event of the pilot needing to escape from the aircraft, there are also some incompletely explained problems with the ejection seat in “off-normal” situations, i.e. those that can occur in combat or even real training. (p. 43.)

If this plane is so bad, then why did the Israeli government go for the deal?  One word: IRAN. Everyone agrees the F-35 is expensive, but except for its most extreme detractors, most would also agree it has one redeeming quality, excellent stealth capabilities. Given the fact that its slower speeds are specifically built for precision attacks on multiple targets, it is not a surprise that Israel Air force Industries and the government toook a chance on the F-35 as long they would be able to override the American computer codes and enhance them.

The MiGFlug Blog says the following:

The F-35 is not mainly built for high speeds, it is built as an attack aircraft (as well), like the A-10 Thunderbolt II and therefore needs low speeds to be able to shoot at the enemy on the ground for longer times before passing it. The radar cross section is one of the world’s smallest even in a clean loadout, not to mention when the others start loading weapons on their wings which further increases the radar cross section of them compared to the F-35. It does not have the best dog fight capabilities due to its big size (Sprey calls it “fat”) and the big engine fan behind the cockpit which limits the sight backwards, but modern air-to-air battles are supposed to be mainly BVR (beyond visual range) engagements which means that all fighters will depend on their radar- and IR missiles rather than they depend on their dogfighting skills.

With Bibi’s visit to Azerbaijan, the F-35 fits tightly into Israel’s potential Iran attack strategy if Trump tears up the nuclear accords upon entering office. It may have been a pork barrel project in terms of the American tax payer and not live up to industry hype, but if used correctly by Israel it may be the the right kind of tool to be used to knock out Iran’s nuclear program.

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With Visit to Azerbaijan is Bibi Preparing to Strike Iran?

For several years, Azerbaijan has played an important role in helping Israel, by providing a base of operations for clandestine missions involving intelligence gathering on Iranian nuclear progress. Azerbaijan is a secular Muslim nation that has had friendly ties to Jews and Israel.  It is known as the safest place for Jews in the Muslim world. 40% of Israel’s oil is said to be provided by Azerbaijan via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhancom (BTC) pipeline. Israel supplies state of the art weaponry to Azerbaijan in its off again on again war with Armenian separatists.

In November I reported on the possibility that Israel already has the ability with drone technology to use Azerbaijan to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities at Arak. With Bibi Netanyahu’s state visit to Azerbaijan today, one has to wonder what the need is for a face to face with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku unless it is to further both covert and overt defense ties in relation to Iran and Azerbaijan’s on again and off again war with Armenia, an Iranian ally.

As Donald Trump prepares to take over the White House on Jan. 20th, the Iranian Nuclear Deal is likely to be scrapped. Azerbaijan will become ground zero for any Israeli response to Iranian aggression.

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