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Iran, North Korea, and the Fast Approaching End Game

Two events  in the past week have now reshaped world events and the geo-political landscape for the forseeble future. The first was the Iranian launch of an advanced satellite-carrying rocket that experts believe is cover for the Islamic Republic’s long-range ballistic missile program.

The other was the second ICBM launch on Friday, carried out by the North Korean regime.  This ICBM flew 3,724km before crashing into the Sea of Japan.  Most experts concur with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s statement that, “The test confirmed that all the US mainland is within striking range.”

Trump had been banking on a year or two to convince the Chinese that they would have no choice but to reign in North Korea.  That has gone bust.

 

The long term game is over, as well as the parallel track with Iran.  There too Trump’s assumption was that Russia, if given certain “carrots” could be enticed to push back against the Ayatollah’s. The satelite launch ended that as well.

With Russia on Israel’s doorstep and Iran preparing for Middle Eastern hegemony, Trump can ill-afford to wait in order to build a coherent foreign policy.

No More White House Distractions

The firing of Reince Priebus and the appointment of General Kelly as his replacement as the new White House Chief of Staff has deep implications on America’s foreign policy.  The Trump White House could ill-afford to have the leaks continue during such a sensitive time where crucial decisions involving a two front war would have to be made. General Kelly also brings serious military experience to the White House, setting the stage for flipping the Trump administration to a war presidency.

The Israel Factor

With the Syrian war turning into an existential crisis for Israel, Jerusalem is waiting for the USA to put together a comprehensive strategy in dealing with these two interconnected threats. Given the fact that Syria appears to be the testing ground where Iranian and North Korean know-how are actually merged together on the battlefield, Israel will be called on to alleviate the burden put on America if and when an actual war would break out.

 

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Iran Conducts Rocket Space Launch, Cover for Long Range Missile Program

Iran announced on Thursday that it had launched an advanced satellite-carrying rocket that experts believe is cover for the Islamic Republic’s long-range ballistic missile program, which has become a flashpoint in relations between Tehran and the Trump administration.

Iranian state media carried the announcement early Thursday. It represents the most significant successful test of such technology, which can be used for space projects as well as long-range nuclear-capable weapons.

The rocket, called the Simorgh, or ‘phoenix,’ marks a key step forward in Iran’s space program, which as long been suspected of covering research and development of advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs.

Iranian media claimed the rocket can carry a 550-pound satellite and that the launch was a success.

Regional experts told the Washington Free Beacon that the latest test is meant to send a message to the Trump administration, which has increased sanctions on Tehran for its ongoing research into ballistic missile technology, which many believe will be used as part of its nuclear program.

“Much like its nuclear program, it is highly likely that Iran’s space program also serves as a cover for the development of an illicit intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Free Beacon. “In particular, the engine development and rocket staging would teach Iran a great deal about how to propel an ICBM. Unfortunately, Tehran has a propensity to use scientific endeavors to further its security.”

Taleblu described the test as an effort by Iran to gauge the Trump administration’s willingness to take a hardline on such activity.

“Iran’s decision to test this rocket, as the Trump administration is reviewing its overall Iran policy is telling,” he said. “It signals a desire to see how serious the administration is to rolling back Iranian technological a advancements, military capabilities, and growing regional influence.”

Originally Published on the Washington Free Beacon.

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Baghdad Threatens Force to Keep Kurdistan in Iraq

As the Kurdistan Regional Government’s September 25th referendum on independence fast approaches, Baghdad has begun to warn the KRG that it is willing to us force to keep Iraq unified.

Iraqi Defense Minister Irfan al-Hayali said the following while on a trip to Iran aimed at strengthening cooperation:

“The army will intervene to prevent any attempts or illegal measures aimed at dividing the country.”

Irfan al-Hayali  later denied the statements and said they had been mistranslated.

 

Kurdistan has been a long time coming and many believe that the Bush 2 administration was pushing for an eventual split from Iraq. “The people of the Kurdistan Region have the right to decide on their future peacefully,” President of the Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani has repeatedly stated.

Although the US has often said it supports an eventual independent Kurdistan, recent comments suggest a subtle backtracking from outward support. The US fears a drive towards independence now will complicate its relationship with Baghdad and formerly push it into the arms of Iran.

Iran’s State News Agency reported the following:

Iran and Iraq on Sunday signed deals aimed at boosting military and defense cooperation during a visit by Baghdad’s Defense Minister Irfan al-Hayali to Tehran. In a memorandum of understanding, signed by Hayali and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Dehghan.

With the ties already growing the US may need to jettison its current policy and support Kurdistan openly. The coming referendum will put the USA to the test on whether it really wants to stop Iran or not.

 

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Does Russia Have a Deal With Israel on Quneitra De-escalation?

With Russian forces moving into Quneitra as early as July 16th, the realization that Israel is being cornered by Iranian and Hezbollah contingents has now become apparent.  Local Quneitra community councils welcomed the opportunity to force “militants associated with Zionist entity” to lay down their arms.

Russia is aware that the Netanyahu government is not happy about the ceasefire deal hammered out between Trump and Putin at the G-20 on July 7th.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister had this to say:

“I can guarantee that we have done everything and the US side has done everything to ensure that Israel’s security interests within this framework are taken fully into account.”

There is more to this statement than just acknowledgment.

Former National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror said the following on Monday in relation to the Iranian presence so close to the Golan:

“Israel may need to take military action to prevent Iran or Hezbollah from setting up permanent bases in Syria.” 

This is no accidental comment. Amidror is a close confidant of the Prime Minister and his comment was meant to send a message to the Russians.

The idea that Iran and Hezbollah is setting up permanent bases so close to Israel’s Golan Heights may appear to be a dangerous step for Israel.  The Russian forces that have now entered the region have only complicated the situation. The peril for Israel cannot be overstated.  However, Amidror’s comments contain a hint of possible solution to the menace forming on Israel’s border.

The Russian’s have at times allowed Israel to take out Hezbollah and Iranian arms transfers, with analysts observing that Russia itself tipped off the Israeli airforce to the location of the hidden arms and gave it fly by capabilities to destroy the targets.  If Israel can convince Putin it is far better to let Israel defend itself by destroying Iranian and Hezbollah fighters on its border than making the IDF attack covertly, then a similar relation can develop even within the framework of the current ceasefire.

More than 18 months ago I wrote the following:

Many analysts believe that Russia, in the long-term, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over the Middle East. Russia views its relationship with Iran as a tactical necessity to prop up Assad and destroy Sunni radicals. After this task is done, the experts in this particular camp believe their paths will diverge.  

If this is so, then logic lends itself to believe Putin wants relationships and long term strategic partnerships with countries that are not only stable, but also share similar security and economic outlooks with himself, and yet will not step in his way. Israel is one of these countries.

We are about to see if this theory holds weight.  If Russia does not prevent Iran and Hezbollah from building up their forces on Israel’s border, then Russia either will have to allow the Israeli airforce to neutralize the growing threat or risk losing leverage over Israel.

Putin has spent much of the Syrian Civil War navigating a variety of local interests while cementing Russia’s control over the Northern Levant. The question remains: At what point does Putin jettison his relationship with Iran in favor of a more moderate and stable relationship with far more rational actors?

If Russia truly wants a stable Middle East then we may be about to see the beginning of a Russian-Iranian divergence.

 

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Why Does Israel Oppose the Syrian Ceasefire?

Reports in the media indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes the ceasefire in Southwestern Syria. The Hill quotes a source from Haaretz that “Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting Sunday that Israel does not support the agreement.”

The question is why.  Afterall, on paper quiet in the Southwest on the border of Israel’s Golan Heights is a good thing.  No one in the Israeli government would argue with quiet, yet the nature of the ceasefire allows for Russian observers to man the border region.  This is a huge capitulation on behalf of the Trump administration.  Up until the ceasefire, Israel could, when necessary hit back against Iranian, Hezbollah, and Syrian movements and arms smuggling.  Now that Russian are essentially in the same locations, Israel will now have to make sure not to hit Russian forces while battling parties aimed at its destruction.

More than this, Putin seems intent on playing both sides.  While he has set up a “deconfliction mechanism” with Israel, Putin keeps on moving the goal posts closer to Israel, which effectively renders the “deconfliction mechanism” pointless.

Most analysts, including myself are betting on a new round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel sooner rather than later, regardless of the Trump-Putin ceasefire. Israel will have to hit quick and successfully in order minimize the amount of destruction it receives back at home.  With Russia in the mix, this ability to wipe out Hezbollah missile infrastructure is severely hampered, especially since Iran and Syria have openly allowed Hezbollah to set up forward bases from Syrian territory. Considering our report yesterday about the ballistic missile factory now set up in Syria, Trump’s ceasefire appears to not only harm Israel, but ultimately America.

The Trump administration might have lowered the risks of going against Putin in Syria, but the White House’s decision has left the region far more imperiled than before.