Orit ben Tzvi, Author at Israel Rising

December 11, 2016December 11, 2016

Rex Tillerson, Trump’s Pick for Secretary of State Offers a Very Different Sort of Foreign Policy

Donald Trump is a completely different sort of president-elect and by looking at who he has picked for his cabinet so far, he is going to be very different sort of president. The latest rumors that seem to be much more than rumors is that Rex Tillerson, the 64 year old CEO of Exxon Mobile will be the next US Secretary of State with John Bolton as his deputy in charge of day to day affairs. In order to understand the Trump team’s vision for America’s foreign policy it is important to understand Tillerson’s background and connections.

Here is a brief overview of Rex Tillerson:

He is a 64 year old native of Wichita falls, Texas
CEO of Exxon Mobile
Owns 2.5 million shares of Exxon Mobile
Deep Connections to Putin’s Russia through his business dealings
Connections to over 50 heads of state by way of Exxon
Against sanctions on Russia

Although the following video is NBC/MSNBC/MSM it gives a pretty good overview:

With the Tillerson pick, Trump is reformulating foreign policy by acknowledging that Russia is a world power and is here to stay. This also admits that the US as uni-polar leader is a concept never became actual reality. Trump clearly sees spheres of influence and in many ways this was the way the world was prior to World Wars One and Two. By picking a business leaders that has extensive global business experience, Trump gains connections with the global community without the baggage of Foggy Bottom.

Trump likes winners, especially in business. If someone is successful it means they can be trusted to do a good job. We see this in his deference to military generals to fill key defense positons or which countries he admires as we see with his rock solid support of Israel versus the Arab states. He admires Putin, not because he is a Putin puppet, but because he sees Putin as a successful leader. Given Trump’s view of the world as broken down into good and evil with the muslim world falling into the latter, Putin makes sense as a erstwhile ally in the West’s fight aginst radical Islam. This is not dissimilar to Roosevelt’s working relationship with Stalin in fighting Nazi Germany and let’s remember Putin is no Stalin.

Tillerson brings instant clout to Trump’s administration and a direct connection to Putin, which Trump needs if he is going to reset global politics. Expect Europe to become very jittery over this as the EU continues to roil over the continent wide populist movement.

What About Israel?

Not much is known about Rex Tillerson’s views on Israel, but pacifying Putin in a way that he sees Iran as a problem for doing relations with the USA, will be a good thing for breaking the growing stranglehold of Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah around Israel. The fact that the rest of the Trump appointees, including Deputy Secretary of State John Bolton see the Iran deal as a major flaw, it is probable that Tillerson does as well. Clearly the Trump administration beleives that the best way to break Iran is to give Putin a deal he can’t refuse in order for the Kremlin to cut the Ayatollahs loose.

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December 8, 2016

Hezbollah Readies its Missiles on Israel’s Border

It has been revealed by the IDF that Hezbollah has its missiles trained on Israeli villages and cities with launching pads in 200 villages on the Lebanese Israeli border. The IDF released a previously classified map detailing the precise location each launching pad.

This is a war crime. pic.twitter.com/CPE3XS1Xs0

— IDF (@IDFSpokesperson) December 6, 2016

With the Israeli airforce working overtime to mitigate weapons transfers between Iranian commanders in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the real question is not if there will be a war, but when.

Israeli Airforce Primary Mission is to Prevent Arms Shipments

With the flurry of air attacks on Syrian targets, one can observe how the IDF stretches the understandings with Russian leader Putin. The only atacks he allows are ones that directed at potential arms transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The goal of these transfers is to strengthen the armanents in Southern Lebanon in preparation for al out war with Israel. Now that the Syrian army seems in control of the war efforst, Hezbollah has energy to spare to turn its sites once more on Israel.

December 5, 2016

Rome Falls in a Night and the EU Begins to Teeter

In what should have been a fairly innocuous referendum on the nature of Italy’s government has turned the EU upside down as Italy’s voters overwhelmingly voted no to the changes to the country’s constitution that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proposed. Renzi did what he promised and resigned entering Italy and the larger EU into a period of political uncertainty. With populism on the rise across the continent, political leaders like Renzi who are advocates for greater federalism are finding their political futures cut short.

What Does this Mean for the EU?

Prime Minister Renzi was the last European leader left with a road-map for the EU’s future. Angela Merkel of Germany is too busy dealing with crisis after crisis and France is heading towards elections where the National Front is taking the country by storm. With Renzi out, the EU finds itself in uncharted territory as many of the member states face unhappy citizens as a euro-skeptic wave is rising across the continent. We are entering the waning days of what historians will call the failed EU experiment, which has been none other than Germany’s attempt at controlling the continent through economic measures. With Merkel on the ropes and increased banking instability, the EU may be headed towards a crackup.

How Will This Affect Israel?

The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner and a weakened EU can cause problems economically for Israel. That being said, the EU’s own support for BDS by labeling “settlement” products has already forced Israel to create a more versatile set of trading partners in the east. Partners like India, China, and Japan are rising stars in relation to Israel’s potential trade growth. The EU might still be a large part of Israel’s export economy, but not for long. As the EU enters the beginning stages of political and economic chaos, Israel will be ready to pivot as it has been doing during Obama’s tenure.

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December 3, 2016

A Synagogue in Kurdish Iraq? Only a Matter of Time…

The Jewish community in Iraqi Kurdistan has officially submitted a request to open a synagogue in Erbil, the region’s capital.

“Representatives from the Jewish community put forward a request to build a synagogue in the city of Erbil and although they have the right to it, the ministry is yet to agree to issue the licence,” the ministry’s spokesperson Mariwan Naqshbandi told The New Arab. “The ministry of religious affairs includes representatives from eight religious communities, including the Jewish community. Therefore, they have the right to get the licence request approved to build a synagogue.”

On Wednesday the Jewish community in Kurdistan, now numbering only 400 families, marked 71 years since tens of thousands were forcibly expelled from the region. The Kurdish Jewish community wants the Kurdistan Regional Government to recognise what happened to the Jews of the area.

Location of Erbil, Iraq Source: Google Maps

Kurdistan Friendly to Israel

It is a fact that no one wants to admit, at least not publicly, but for years successive Israeli governments have covertly and more recently backed Kurdish independence from Iraq. Kurds are not Arabs and have a traditions of being descended from the Medes who were known to be friendly to the Jewish people. In fact the Kurds and Jews should be considered to two predominantly indigenous people of the area until the Arab population colonized what is today northern Iraq.

Israel currently buys a good portion of its oil from Kurdish areas from a pipeline running through Turkey to the Mediterranean.

As ties continue to grow beyond military assistance, expect direct trade and open relations as long as the Peshmerga can keep ISIS and Turkey from its borders.

December 1, 2016December 1, 2016

2000 Arabs Join the Kurdish Peshmerga, Setting Back Turkish Plans for Control Over Region

In a sign of long term Kurdish leadership in Northern Iraq, 2000 Nineveh Arabs have joined the Kurdish fighting force, the Peshmerga. Kurdish news site, Rudaw reports that it was the Arab communities themselves who asked Kurdish President Masoud Barzani to allow them to form a brigade within the Peshmerga.

“The name of this brigade will be the ‘Brigade of West Dijla Peshmerga,’ comprising of Arabs from Zemar, Rabia, Ayazya and a number of villages in Sinjar. Their duty will be to protect their areas under the command of the Ministry of Peshmerga,” Sheikh Muzaam Ahmed Al-Uwet, a spokesperson for tribal forces of Nineveh Province, told Rudaw.

Partnership is Setback for Turkish Plans Post ISIS

Turkey’s strategy behind supporting ISIS (in the beginning) was to create chaos in their immediate surroundings. As a NATO member and strongest military in the region they would be the only ones strong enough to restore order. Order for Turkey is putting down the growing strength of Iraqi Kurdistan at the same as claiming more lands connected to the former Ottoman Empire.

That was in the beginning. With ISIS being now surrounded by a combined Kurdish and Iraqi army in Mosul and more and more Sunni Arabs in the area recognizing that Kurdistan is a fact, Turkey’s ability to use chaos to rule may have seen its final door shut. With the Arabs in Northern Iraq accepting Kurdish rule instead of Turkish, Iraqi, or Iranian, the relevance of a Kurdistan that is capable of restoring order is real making Turkey’s great gambit in Northern Iraq a losing proposition.