Author: Orit ben Tzvi

Orit is Israel Rising's regional and threat analyst. She has a degree from IDC in Middle East Diplomacy and has served both intelligence related activities for the IDF as well as advised privately for firms doing business in the region.
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Israel’s Growing Alliance with India Exposes the Weakness of its China Policy

After Modi’s historic visit to Israel, questions remain on how the elevated partnership between Israel and India will play in China. Israel’s relationship with China has steadily grown and while this has not been a huge boon for trade, it has been an excellent gateway to Asia for Israeli innovation.

India and China have fought three wars since India’s independence and although they have an advanced trade relationship their disputes have created tension between the two countries.  With India battling Islamic militants on its Western border and an open dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir, China’s support Pakistan’s claim to Kashmir as well as its military support for Pakistan has increasingly unnerved India.

Israel has long viewed its entry into Asia as one of neutrality. This is due to Israel’s perception that its role in Asia is purely economic.  Israel’s growing partnership with India, culminating in Modi’s visit changes that assumption. India and Israel see one another as kindred spirits bound from their ancient roots. In truth, the same relationship could have grown in China, but it has remained largely surface level and business oriented.

With Chinese expansion under Xi Jinping more than just economic, India’s partnership with Israel has triggered  a realignment within Middle East affiars.  Noticebly, Modi’s visit to Israel did not include Ramallah. In fact the most Modi has done is to give ceremonial mention of the “two-state” solution. Compare this to China who has been openly courting Mahmoud Abbas.

Abbas is scheduled to visist China for three days where he is expected to ask Xi to support the “Palestinians” in international forums. More than this, there is talk of China financially supporting the PA.

Israel’s assumption was that China could be convinced to eventually move to a neutral position when it came to Israel and the Palestinians. This has not happened.  The growing Israel-Indo partnership has forced China to align itself with those groups who are antagonistic to Israel. China’sdrive for hegemony beyond its regionconfronts Israel with a dilemma. Does it push back on China by strengething its relationship with India even more or do they keep the status quo?

With China openly courting the Palestinians and supporting Pakistan, the ball is in Israel’s court to carve out a place where their alliance with India does not force those players in the Middle East to over power the Jewish State due to help from China.

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JERUSALEM GAME CHANGER: Old City Hotels to Be Handed Over to Jewish Ownership

After thirteen years in the Israeli Court system – the district court ruled that the Imperial and Petra Hotels at the Jaffa gate entrance – the “key to the Old City”, are formally and officially in Jewish hands. The Greek Orthodox Church was also told to pay symbolic court costs to the Jewish concerns.

It has yet to be determined what will be the the fate of the current tennants, but not withstanding the slight possibility of an appeal by the Greek Orthodox Church in the Supreme Court, it is still a wonderful and uplifting court ruling.

A spokesman from Ateret Cohanim said the following in relation to the news:

“This was a great day…G-D hasn’t forgotten…turning days of fasting to days of joy. This is a perfect answer to recent harsh days in these three weeks.”

The acquisition of the two hotels will dramatically increase the overt Jewish and Israeli presence at the main gate most tourists take to enter into the Old City. More importantly, it shatters the feeling that the “Arab” Shuk is off limits to Jews, breaking down the forced quarter system the British imposed on the Old City during the years they occupied Jerusalem and the Land of Israel. The quarter system was forced on Jerusalem’s Old City in order to control its population. The result lead to a strengthening of the Arab presence at exense of the Jewish population, which was then the majority of the city.

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Jordan Remains at War with Israel

Reports suggest that King Abdullah of Jordan is angry at Netanyahu for publicly praising the Israeli embassy security guard who was stabbed earlier in the week in Amman.

“This kind of behavior — which is unacceptable and provocative on all levels — has made us all angry… and feeds extremism in the region,” the King said of Netanyahu.

“The Israeli prime minister is obligated to act responsibly and prosecute the murderer, instead of exploiting the crime for internal political purposes,” he added.

Of course none of this should surprise those who are avid watchers of the Hashemite family and their dealings in Jordan.

Caroline Glick wrote the following in March:

“The Muslim Brotherhood is the second largest political force in the country. Although Jordanians were revolted in 2015 when Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria burned alive a downed Jordanian pilot, ISIS has no shortage of sympathizers in wide swaths of Jordanian society. More than 2,000 Jordanians joined ISIS in Syria and several thousand more ISIS members and sympathizers are at large throughout the kingdom.”

The King has become adept in playing all sides. When he needs to fan the flames of hate to the Jewish people he does. The opposite is also true. When he needs help against challengers to the throne, he ends up asks America for help.

The peace treaty signed in 1994 has grown more and more worthless as the King’s rhetoric continues to become far more radical than in the past.

Why is He Still King?

Israel and the USA feel they need King Abdullah on the thrown.  Essentially this boils down to dealing with the evil you know rather than the chaos you don’t. Israel has gone out of its way to ensre the King lives simply because the alternative is chaos. Jordan’s stability has been the hallmark of America’s foreign policy.

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TERROR IN ISRAEL: Abbas Breaks with Peace Push over Temple Mount

The murder of three Israeli Jews over Shabbat by a 19 year old Palestinian Arab was purported to be carried out due to the policies of the Israeli government on the Temple Mount.  Since the doble murder of Druze policemen near the Lions Gate, the Israeli government has placed a series of metal detectors at the entrance of the Temple Mount.

This tiny act of sovereignty over Judaism’s holiest site enraged the Arab street in Jerusalem and around Judea and Samaria.  Mahmoud Abbas has called for endless riots until the Israeli government returns the security situation to its previous state.

Friday night saw the first Jewish deaths in relation to the rioting as one Arab infiltrated the small community of Halamish-Neve Tsuf East of Tel Aviv and proceded to stab three memebers of one family to death before being neutralized.

In the wake of the murder and riots many are calling for Israel to show restraint.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following at a security cabinet meeting held in Jerusalem:

“Since the beginning of the events, I have held a series of meetings and assessed the situation with all the security forces, including those in the field,” Netanyahu said.

The Prime Minister added, “We are receiving an updated picture of the situation and recommendations for action, and we are acting accordingly.”

“We are conducting this with composure, determination and responsibility – and we will continue to do so in order to maintain security,” Netanyahu said, addressing the ministers. “I also expect you to act with the responsibility demanded of you.”

The metal detectors have been blamed for this current round of violence.  However, Abbas has seemed to indicate the rioting has been planned for some time. Not only that, the idea that metal detectors are an infringement on the Arab’s religious rights on the Temple Mount are not only unfounded by have been criticized by several American and European current and government officials, including Sir Paul Robert Stephenson the former Metropolitan Police Commissioner in the UK, who said the following according to the Wall Street Tribune:

“The Palestinians are exacerbating the situation, the metal detectors were put in place as a result of actions taken by the Palestinians. If this was in London, Paris, or New York any law enforcement official worth his salt would advise installing metal detectors to prevent other would be gunmen from entering the place. It is only common sense!”

As we noted last week, Abbas and the Hashemite Kingdom has grown more and more isolated to do the rift between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.  Saudi Arabia’s noticeble silence as far as criticism of Israel in relation to the Temple Mount is one of the reasons for Abbas taking such hard line in connection to riots.

 

 

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WAR FRONT: Iran and North Korea are Building Ballistic Missiles in Syria…Now What?

There have been countless articles written about the intersection between the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, yet if the latest pictures taken by the Syrian opposition is an indication, the extent of the collaboration between the two countries along with the Russian acquiescence to the program should be alarming to everyone.

Published by a Syrian opposition site last week, the following images and information taken in Syria along with a detailed description by a worker at the site show collusion between the North Korean, Iranian, and Syrian governments in building an active ballistic missile factory.

MEMRI translated the July 10th article found on the site, which said the following:

Zamanalwsl.net stated that it had “received exclusive photos of the Assad regime’s scientific research center in the Wadi Jahannam region that is [administratively] in the rural area of Tartus. The new photos support this website’s previous report regarding the center where Bashar [Al-Assad] paid a secret visit that was disguised as a public and documented tour of a visit to several homes [of his supporters] in the rural region of Hama…  

“This is a facility for the development and manufacture of long-range missiles and M600 ballistic missiles – the [latter is] the secret name given by the science center [to these missiles, which are manufactured according to] the model of the Iranian Fateh 110 missile.

“The sources [cited in the report] indicated that the center has a branch in Deir Shamil [in western Hama province] where there is a base of the Fourth Division [of the Syrian army under the command of Maher Al-Assad, brother of Bashar]. [At this branch,] chemicals are produced and stored in the hillside adjacent to an underground road. According to the sources, Brig.-Gen. Ghassan Abbas is the director of the branch, under the direct command of Salim Ta’mah, deputy director of the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC). The sources expect that the construction of [the branch of the SSRC] will be finished by year’s end.”

With the Trump administration allowing Russia to take key border areas near Jordan and Israel as part of last week’s ceasefire, the revelation of such a dangerous facility makes the Russia presence a clear danger to Israel.

Can Israel Take Out the Missile Factory?

When Israel took out the Syrian nuclear program that was built by North Korea, the region was very different. Russia had not presence outside of its Latkia base, the US was considered te strongman in the region, and Syria was essenitally a weak actor.

Today’s Syria is a non-existant entity, but Iranian and Russian forces exist througout the war torn country. Not to mention, the Russians have their S-400 anti-aircraft missile system installed in the region, essentially changing the dynamic the Israeli Airforce has to contend with.

This leaves the Trump administration to push back on Russia forcing them to remove the base.  This unlikely for two reasons.  The first is that Trump has been touting the “ceasefire” as a success. Second to that he has made it clear that Russia is a responsible actor and needs to be partnered with in order to bring stability to the region.

If Trump would bring Putin to task on this base, it would be an admittance that Trump’s entire Russia strategy is actually flawed.

North Korean-Iranian Collusion is the Real Story

It has become more and more obvious that the Mullahs in Tehran and North Korea have done more than help eachother out when necessary.  Their active partnership in building weapons of mass destruction is so tight that when talking about taking out one regime, it really means taking out two.  Furthermore, Syria needs to been seen in a far different light by the administration.  True, no one in America wants to see boots on the ground, but this base is a game changer.  Syria is now linked to North Korea, which has made it clear that it intends to nuke America.

The Trump administration, if it is serious about North Korea, must roll back the partnership between Iran, Syria, North Korea, and Russia. If it doesn’t, Israel must be empowered to do it for them.