Micha Gefen, Author at Israel Rising

August 14, 2016

WAR DRUMS: Russia Deploys Surface to Air Missiles in Crimea

Russia deployed its advanced S-400 anti-aircraft missile system to Crimea as tensions rise in the border area with Ukraine. Reports have said at least two Russian have been killed near Ukraine increasing the likelihood of some sort of clash.

As the traditional Ukrainian government was forced from office by a Western backed coup in 2014, Crimea voted to separate from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Putin has since militarily controlled the strategic peninsula.

With Russia seen as an emerging power both regionally and globally, NATO has gone to great lengths to reassure allies that it will defend them. Despite assurances, each move Putin makes sows doubt in areas that belonged to the former Soviet Union.

Already in July NATO stated it was going to bolster its military presence in the Baltic and Eastern Poland. The challenge is that NATO risks pushing Russia to continuously strengthen its presence with manuevers in Eastern Europe. Many observers feel that the West would achieve more by trying to lower the intensity instead of committing to more troops. So far this sort of advice has not been heeded.

August 9, 2016

WAR DRUMS: Is Obama Provoking a War with China?

As China continues to build up a military presence on their man-made islands in the South China sea, the Obama administration has decided to move over some heavy equipment of its own. The US military will be bolstering its presence and running patrols from five US bases in the Philippines in order to block against Chinese expansionist moves.

In July, the National Interest reported on the Obama Administration’s policy towards the South China Sea:

“Beijing’s moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the region—one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. This alignment will further U.S. goals: to continue to mount a forward defense, to keep the seas and skies free, and to promote prosperity and the spread of democracy.”

The idea that the USA is doing this for world prosperity is laughable. The USA government is there because it knows it needs to check China now before it becomes an unstoppable force and dangerous to Washington’s interest.

Looking at the map below, one gets a quick understanding of what a complicated and dangerous situation Obama’s brazenness has made it.

Whether one agrees with Beijing’s Island building campaign or not, the US military’s insertion into an east Asian dispute automatically makes the situation into one which is always one trigger away from war. The Chinese argument, whether agreed upon or not by the players in the region is that China used to control the South China Sea. Yes, its true this was centuries ago. However, the Western world has constantly been hamstrung in terms of policies in relation to countries or civilizations that have a concept of time that goes farther back than theirs.

Using the international arbitration case against China further provokes animosity. Afterall, whose world order is it? If we assume the world order and security structure post World War Two is now in free fall, what does it matter if the UN stands against China in regard to a dispute that is older than the USA itself?

The faster the Obama administration takes into consideration that the world is actually a very different place, it will pull itself back from the brink of triggering the next global conflagration.

August 7, 2016August 7, 2016

Has the Caliphate Reached Israel?

With today’s charge against a Northern Galilee resident for supporting ISIS, the populace in Israel once again wonders if ISIS is here. The fact is they have been here for a while. The problem with looking at ISIS as an organized terror force is that it leads experts in the wrong direction.

It took a while for investigators to piece together that the Sarona market shooting was indeed the work of ISIS affiliated terrorists. If rumors can be believed a sizeable population of Arabs in Judea and Samaria openly support ISIS. This does not mean that the “caliphate” has set up shop in Israel’s Biblical Heartland, but it means that ISIS is providing inspiration to the Arab street in Israel. Most Arabs, especially in pre-1967 Israel are against ISIS, but because of the nature of the Arab street in Judea and Samaria having lived under years of PA incitement, the leap to ISIS is easy to imagine.

Today’s charge against 29-year-old Wasim Ahmed Khutaba of the Nazareth-area village of Reineh should be no surprise. The challenge now is finding a strategy that will prevent ISIS inspired terrorism like what happened in the Sarona market and the murders of Hallel Ariel, and Rabbi Michael Mark.

The battle to stay ahead of ISIS will only get harder as the terror group will likely change tactics after an Israeli firm was able to hack an ISIS Telegram group, where attacks were planned out. According to the report on channel 10, only 500 members worldwide belonged to this secret group.

On one hand, hacking into the group is a great win for Israel, but prematurely revealing the hack may have compromised a long-term tactical breakthrough.

August 5, 2016

Will ISIS Attack the 2016 Rio Olympics?

With the Olympics set to start tonight, security officials are concerned over the potential for a serious ISIS attack on the games. Brazilian officials have already been taken to task over the lax security environment in around the games. With terror just one of the many security issues facing the games Brazil’s security services are clearly inexperienced in something of this magnitude.

In the days leading up to tonight’s opening games security officials have stepped up there work. They have become so concerned that 13 different Israeli security firms are aiding the protection of the games. In fact, one man has already been caught with a gun.

How Will ISIS Attack?

For most security experts on the look out for a well planned mega attack, they are looking at ISIS’s operational strategy the wrong way. Time and again, ISIS has been able to get passed security officials by utilizing nearly spontaneous reactions by ISIS supporters to overwhelming propaganda. Stabbings, car rammings, and lone gun men are far harder to predict and control than a well constructed terror cell. The worst thing security officials can do is go out of their way to protect against something that is far too complex for ISIS and miss the anonymous attendee ready to ounce.

The Battle of Dabiq

The battle of Dabiq, a mythological battle at the end of the days predicted by Islam to take place between the forces of the Mahdi/Caliph and the countries of the world is necessary according to Islam in order to usher the end times in. The Olympics provide and excellent opportunity for ISIS to wage an international battle of Dabiq against what they see as the forces of the world gathered at the Olympics.

So will there be an attack. No one knows, but security officials better listen well to the private Israeli firms that are already there. Thousands of lives may depend on it.

August 3, 2016August 3, 2016

Obama and Kerry Paid Ransom Money to Iranian Regime to Free Hostages

It has been reported that the Obama administration sent up $400 million to Iran by way of unmarked cargo plane as payment to free the American hostages that Iran had been holding. Although the Administration at the time insisted it was not folding on paying to free the hostages, more and more proof comes out saying otherwise.

This should not come to a surprise as the administration from the beginning of P5 +1 negotiations engaged in a strategy of obfuscation and semantic gymnastics in trying to show the American people and the Israeli government that it was in fact not caving in on its core principles.

With the new information coming to light, there should be no doubt about Obama’s interest in a détente with Iran from the beginning. The question is, why has Obama been so interested in rapprochement with the Iranian terrorist regime?

Obama believes that there really are no terrorists. As a follower of historical Marxism, all conflicts are essentially due to class struggles and economic issues. This is why Obama and John Kerry felt from the beginning that Iran just needed enough incentive to first come to the table and then sign onto an agreement. The problem is, what happens if the incentive Iran is looking for is the destruction of Israel?