Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Is the US About to Abandon Kurdistan?

With the Kurdish Independence referendum for the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq coming on September 25th and Mosul now back in the hands of the Iraqi National Armed Forces due to the Kurdish Peshmerga, the international players are nervous over what the implications are for the region and the world if an independent Kurdistan truly rises.

The United States has urged the KRG to hold off on the referendum. The US Congress has even warned the KRG by threatening to withhold funds. The US Congressional Armed Services Committee released their annual National Defense Authorization Act. The language relating to the KRG appears problematic for an indpendent Kurdistan.

“The committee notes that funding provided to the [KRG] is to enhance Government of Iraq-KRG cooperation and support a unified effort to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL),” the draft National Defense Authorization Act reads. “Such funding should be contingent upon KRG participation in the government of a unified Iraq and on their continued good faith cooperation in the anti-ISIL campaign.”

Although the USA has viewed the Kurdish Peshmerga as integral to the victory over ISIS it appears to be backtracking on backing an independent Kurdistan. With Mosul liberated, the Kurdish Peshmerga is less needed. An independent Kurdistan will create friction if not all out war with Turkey as well as a war with Bagdhad.

This was part of the show of strength by the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi as seen by his visit to a liberated Mosul.

Experts quote the Iraq Constitution in pushing back on the illegality of Kurdish independence. Article 1 of Iraqi constitution states: “The Republic of Iraq is a single federal, independent and fully sovereign state in which the system of government is republican, representative, parliamentary, and democratic, and this Constitution is a guarantor of the unity of Iraq.”

Keeping the above in mind, Kurdistan has for years been moving towards independence.  The KRG believes it is not only entitled to independence, but territory that the Peshmerga gained by fighting ISIS over the last few years.  One such place, Kirkuk, is a strategic Kurdish and Arab city, now fully in the hands of the Peshmerga. The referendum is being held to include Kirkuk in the future Kurdish state. Newly liberated Mosul is also a mixed Kurdish Arab city.

What Does Washington Want?

The USA has for years used the threat of an independent Kurdistan to push back on a chaotic central Iraqi government. Not only that, the Peshmerga has proven itself like its counterpart the SDF in Syria to be the best fighting force on the ground. At the same time the US has played both sides by trying to hold the Kurds back from going all the way.  This they fear will spark a regional war with Turkey, while plunging the rest of Iraq into chaos.

With this in mind, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson travelled to Turkey to discuss Ankara’s impending invasion of Syrian Kurdistan in Afrin as well as the coming KRG referendum on independence.

With Washington trying to slow down the drive towards indpendence, while at the same time giving tacit support for such a movement, the Kurds feel emboldened in their drive for a free Kurdistan.

Israel Already Backs an Indpendent Kurdistan

In 2014, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli prime minister, stated that the Kurds were “worthy of their own independence”. Also in January of 2016, Ayelet Shaked, justice minister of Israel, called for an independent Kurdistan. She also expressed that Israel had to openly call for the establishment of a Kurdish state that separated Iran from Turkey, one which would be friendly towards Israel.

Israel has supported Kurdistan covertly, being the regions largest buyer of oil.

September 25th is coming.  With the US once again not clear on its attitude to a independent Kurdistan, the chaos that may result in Iraq and on the Turkish border may unravel the post ISIS celebrations.

 

 

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Kurdish National Council in Syria Condemns Turkey’s Threats of Invasion

As Turkey continues to build up it armed forces in the Kilis Triangle in preparation of an invation of Syrian Kurdistan, the Kurdish National Council of Syria responded to the increased Turkish shelling of Afrin, a Kurdish stronghold in North-West Syria.

“We at the Kurdish National Council (KNC), while we support any effort to combat extremism and terrorism in all its forms and names, we believe that such actions will not serve international efforts to combat it and will hinder efforts to eliminate terrorism,” the KNC said.

“We call for dialogue to resolve the differences and concerns of various parties by peaceful means and international guarantees and to not make Afrin an area to settle differences, the KNC said.

“We affirm our rejection to the logic of military threats and the illegality of Turkish attitude towards Afrin and call on them to focus on combating terrorism. We call on our Kurdish people and the Arabs who are united by their co-existence, not to be dragged into hostile conflicts and reject the Turkish adventure that will not benefit anyone, and lead to the shedding of more blood,” the Kurdish council said.

Turkey claims the Kurdish YPG, also known as the People’s Protection Units is really a terrorist entity and rejects its overwhelming numbers within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is backed by the United States.

The Turkish government has said its recent military movements in northwest Syria are legitimate measures in response to attacks from the YPG forces in the Afrin region.

“This is not a declaration of war. We are making preparations against potential threats,” Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday. “It’s … a legitimate measure so that we can protect our independence. We cannot remain silent against those sending missiles from Afrin.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said on Wednesday that Turkey was ready to carry out ground operations against the YPG if needed.

“If there is a threat against us, our troops will conduct any operations with the Free Syrian Army on the ground,” he told France 24 television.

With the threat of full scale invasion continuing to heat up the KRC has now appealed to their counterparts in the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) for help.

“We also appeal to the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq and its presidency to make efforts to urge Turkey not to continue this scheme, and we call on Kurds in foreign countries to denounce these threats and hold demonstrations and protests against it in accordance with the laws of these countries and to appeal to international and civilian organizations interested in relief and humanitarian affairs,” the KNC said. “Long live Afrin.”

According to Kurdish sources in the North, a full scale attack on the YPG by the Turkish government will throw off the US backed attack on the ISIS stronghold in Raqqa. There is some logic to this view in that the SDF will be forced to fight the Turkish army and ths pull back from Raqqa.

ISIS, Turkish Weapon

The origins of ISIS are complex and find themselves rooted in both old guard Baathist drive to retake Iraq as well a joint Obama and Erdogan creation whose purpose was to destablize the Middle East in order for Erdogan to bring a renewed Ottoman stability. Turkey was to take those areas West of the Euphrates and Iran to the East.  ISIS has been a tool of the Turkish armed forces and poltical elite since the beginning. With Raqqa on the ropes, the Kurds not only would be forced to pull back, but the chaos machine known as the Islamic State would live another day.  Turkey would get what it wants.  The ability to destroy the YPG/SDF and lend fuel to the weapon they originally created.

As I wrote earlier inthe week, Afrin is a test for the Trump administration.  Are they willing to push back against Erdogan or let the Kurds get destroyed, thus rendering their entire war against ISIS pointless?

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Turkey’s Erdogan Warns Syrian Kurdistan: “We Are Preparing For War”

The Kurdish held area of Afrin in North West Syria is under imminent threat of Turkish invasion as the Turkish armed forces are amassing on the border.  With the Russian army pulling back from the area, many see this as a tacit approval for Turkey’s invasion.

Rudow reported if Turkey attacks Afrin, “Turkey will be plunged into a swamp, politically and militarily – there will be an historical resistance against Turkish occupation in Afrin and Shahba regions,” Mehmud Berxwedan, commander of Kurdish YPG forces in Afrin, told Voice of America’s Kurdish radio service on Friday.

Syrian Kurdistan is comprised of three autonomous cantons along the Turkish border. The further strengthening of these areas is a development that Ankara fears may lead to the emergence of an autonomous or independent Kurdish entity along its border and spark a legitimate secession movement for its own nearly 20 million Kurds.

While Kurds are the traditional indigenous people of the area, spanning across Turkey, North Syria, Northern Iraq, and Western Iran, Turkey’s President Erdogan called them terrorists.

Turkey’s deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus told Reuters on Wednesday that Turkish military preparations in northwest Syria are “legitimate measures against a threat from Kurdish forces in the Afrin region, and Turkey will retaliate against any hostile move.” He added in an interview that “This is not a declaration of war. We are making preparations against potential threats” adding that “It’s … a legitimate measure so that we can protect our independence. We cannot remain silent against those sending missiles from Afrin.”

An attack on Afrin wil seemingly destablize the entire region and would threaten to draw the wider American back SDF and Iraqi KRG into the conflict.  Will Afrin start a wider regional war?  That is up to Erdogan and Turkey’s ability to reign in their appetite for expansion. If Erdogan does go in, the Trump administration will have to decide to openly turn against another NATO member on behalf of the Kurds or back stab the Kurdish people like previous administrations.

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PALESTINE FALLING: The Qatar Ultimatum and Fatah’s Rift with Hamas

Mahmoud Abbas, the perpetual leader of the Palestinian Authority is set to meet with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi on Sunday. The meeting comes at a time of increased uncertainty for both Abbas and the future of his Fatah movement as it attempts to show a more moderate face by putting the screws on Hamas.

For Hamas’ part, it hopes that continued negotiations with the Sisi government will result in a permanent reopening of the Rafiah crossing between Gaza and Egyptian controlled Sinai.

Since the the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Qatar began and the 48 hour extension given by Saudi Arabia to Qatar winds down, Hamas has been busy attempting to find another avenue to bring in goods.  Qatar has been their biggest backer, but the feud between the Saudis and Qatar is making Hamas’ future far more tenuous.

Why Does Egypt Want to Help Hamas?

Sisi’s meeting with Hamas leadership was not about saving the movement, but rather preventing an armed conflict between Hamas and Israel.  A cornered Hamas  is a dangerous Hamas and Sisi would rather have the leaders owe him than play by their own rules.

This may seem like a dangerous strategy as well as in opposition to the Saudi line against Qatar as it throws a bone to a movement which is sinking fast. Yet, part of the strategy by Sisi and most assuredly Israel is to keep both Fatah, which is corrupt and Hamas, which is Jihadist weak and divided. Neither Egypt nor Israel can trust either movement to take over the reigns of the Palestinian cause. By leaving Gaza in the hands of a somewhat weakened Hamas while allowing the PA to rule over a small number of cities within Judea and Samaria the national movement for “Palestine” will continue to disintegrate.

The Saudis, Egyptians, and even the many of the Gulf States have concluded that the made up movement for the liberation of historic Palestine, which they had concocted over 50 years ago is doing far more damage to their own fortunes. Israel has only gotten stronger and the Palestinians far more obstinate and radical. By letting the Palestinians movement die slowly a new paradigm can arise that will be far more sustainable and prosperous for itself and the region.

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SYRIAN CRISIS: Why Did the Syrian Kurds Just Forfeit Shengal to the Syrian Regime?

In a strange turn of events the Syrian regime has been allowed to move in and out of Shengal with permission of the Syrian Kurdish Militia (YPG).  The YPG is being funded and supported by the Trump administration and makes up the majority of the Western backed SDF, which is leading the battle on Raqqa.

Have the Syrian Kurds backstabbed the American coalition? The answer is no.

My sources in Northern Syria give two possible explanations for the seemingly about face of the Syrian Kurdish militias.

The first possibility involves the consolidation of YPG controlled territory  West of the Euphrates.  Where as East of the Euphrates is now undeniably Kurdish, the Western part is still in dispute.  The YPG is making a calculation to build up their holdings using American backing, while regrouping to take the rest.

The second possibility is related to the announcement by the Turkish military has announced a build up of its armed forces in the Kilis triangle right near Shengal.  It is clear Erdogan means to use the triangle area to advance against the Kurdish positions in the area in order to crush the YPG West of the Euphrates. Erdogan recently said as much when he stated the following on his official Twitter account:

“I am calling on the whole world. We will never allow setting up of a [Kurdish] state in northern Syria no matter what the cost may be.”

Given this situation the YPG has had to capitulate to allowing Syrian Regime forces and Hezbollah move freely in and out of the Shengal area.

A further complication is the upcoming G-20 Summit where rumor has it that Trump and Putin will meet to find a way to tamp down the proxy war now underway in Syria.