Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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US Holds Off on Support for Independent Kurdistan, While Israel Sticks By the Kurds

While Israel remains the only country in the world to openly call for an independent Kurdistan, the Trump Administration continues to publicly beg for the Iraqi Kurds to push-off their referendum for independence to be held on September 25th.

“The United States does not support the Kurdistan Regional Government’s intention to hold a referendum later this month,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Friday. “The United States has repeatedly emphasized to the leaders of the Kurdistan Regional Government that the referendum is distracting from efforts to defeat [the Islamic State] and stabilize the liberated areas.”

Of course, the United States should not be surprised by the drive by the Kurds for an independent state. The Kurds have for centuries pushed for their own sovereign country without success.  Now, with the Kurdish Regional Government showing that they are by far the most stable entity in Iraq and have been the biggest reason behind the coalition’s success against ISIS, the drive for independence has been expected.

“We know, by the way, that the State Department and possibly the [Defense Department] are personally contacting members of Congress, senators, representatives, asking them not to support the referendum,” Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, told POLITICO in a recent interview. “We’re very serious about independence. It’s kind of disheartening that for two to three years we talked about a referendum and the U.S. said that it was surprised.”

The US is challenged by the possibility of an independent Kurdistan, because supporting its independence, would essentially collapse the post World War 2 security structure in the Middle East.   An independent Kurdistan in Northern Iraq may only constitute a minority of the total Kurdish population and their homeland in the Middle East, but by the US supporting it, would cause Turkey to disconnect from the West and Iraq to officially declare allegiance to Iran.

Most observers say that this is happening anyway. Given this fact, an independent Kurdistan would be America’s best bet to reach stability in an area being gobbled by the Iranians.

US Wants Kurdish Support Without Giving them Anything Substantial

Ever since the 1991 invasion of Saddam’s Iraq, the US has promised the Kurds of Northern Iraq that they would eventually support their independence, but they would have to agree wait until the opportune time.  They gained autonomy and US protection. Then the US invaded Iraq again and toppled Saddam Hussein in 2002.  The Kurds gained full autonomy inside a federalized Iraq with promises of eventual independence. It has been 15 years since the US invasion of Iraq.

As the rest of Iraq collapsed into chaos well before ISIS, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) prospered.  The US dawdled while Kurds held back ISIS and then when the Defense Department finally dropped in supplies, the Kurds seemed the only group capable of soundly defeating ISIS.

With all of the above, the US still chooses to withhold its support for Kurdistan.

Israel Remains Alone in its Support for Kurdistan

There are many reasons for Israel’s support for an independent Kurdistan.  Most observers believe correctly that it would send a ripple effect to other Kurdish areas, most notably inside Iran, making it especially dangerous to the Ayatollah’s theocratic rule.

Geopolitics aside, Jews and Kurds have a long history together.  Ever since the first exile from Israel, Jews have seen the Kurds whose predecessors were the Medes as friends and allies.  Through the years, both groups were persecuted and remained stateless. In an act of comradery, sensing an unequal status for their ancient allies, today’s Israelis long to help the Kurds achieve what Jews only achieved a short while ago.

September 25th will most likely result in support for independence. The day after may very well bring war, but the Kurds will fight for their homeland knowing if the Jews after 2000 years of exile can achieve it, so can they.

 

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Israel Surrounded as Iran Attempts to Divide Kurds Ahead of Independence

Sources close to us have confirmed that Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Al Qud’s Force is currently paying a visit to the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, Iraq.  The purpose of the visit is to force Masoud Barzani to call off the referendum for Kurdish independence scheduled for September 25th.

Although a calm atmosphere and warm words are expected to be exchanged Barzani would not be able to call off the vote even if he wanted to.  The Kurds of Iraq are prepared to vote overwhelmingly for independence.  Furthermore, Iran like Turkey is scared that this vote will give a strong signal to Kurdish areas in their own countries to begin pushing for their own autonomy if not independence altogether.

Given this, Suleimani has a secondary goal should Barzani not bow to Iran’s threats and that is to create a division between the Iraqi Kurdish leadership and those Iranian Kurdish groups stationed in the Eastern part of the KRG whose aim is to help win autonomy for the 15 million Kurds in North West Iran.

Once again General Suleimani will receive assurances, but these will in fact be empty leaving Iran no choice but to go head to head with the Iranian Kurds post September 25th.

In fact, a large Iranian armed force is already positioned within the Iranian Kurdish region in preparation for decimating the indigenous Kurds who live there.

Iran Seeks to Stop Kurdistan While Preparing to Invade Israel

The issues of an independent Kurdistan and Israel are intertwined in the minds of Iran.  The Iranian regime views Kurdistan as a forward base for what they call the “Zionist Entity.” Breaking a free Kurdistan is key to rolling back a direct threat to their regime in order to have full focus on Israel’s Golan and Galil.  Already, Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria have moved troops into position under Russian protection.

For Israel, who already has defense pacts with Azerbaijan, a free Kurdistan would push back on Iran’s aggressive stance and give Jerusalem a counterbalance.  Knowing that the friendship between Israel and the Kurds goes far back, Iran is now pushing in the extreme to stop Erbil’s plans towards a free and independent Kurdistan.

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DEIR AL-ZOR FALLING: Syrian Regime and Kurdish SDF Head for a Showdown

As the talk of chaos and war between the Kurds of the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq and the Arab areas to the South intensify due to the approaching referendum, something ominous is fast approaching between similar sides in Syria.

The last stronghold of ISIS rests in Eastern Syria in a sparsely populated region called Deir al-Zor. In recent weeks Deir al-Zor has been the focus of intense fighting between the Russian backed Syrian regime and ISIS fighters. Sources on the ground report that the Syrian government forces fought their way to an air base on the outskirts of Deir al-Zor.

Meanwhile the US backed SDF, which is made up of mainly Kurds along with some Arab units is heading for Deir al-Zor from the North. The Kurds shocked the Syrian regime when they essentially declared an independent enclave in Syria’s North.  Similar to their brethren in Iraq, they have become the most effective force to wiping out ISIS.

The Syrian Kurds who make of the bullwark of the SDF have one mission in mind as the approach Deir al-Zor.

“The first step is to free the eastern bank of the Euphrates and the areas Islamic State still holds. We’re not specifying a timeframe but we hope it will be a quick operation,”Ahmed Abu Kholeh head of the SDF military council told Reuters. 

With both armies on a collision course, Deir al-Zor may very well be the first point of many where the US and Russian proxies fight.  The challenge for the Syrian regime, is that the Kurds are far better trained than their Jihadist counterparts.  With Iraq about to be split between the Iranian influenced South and Kurdish controlled North, Syria is on its way to a division between Kurdish and non-Kurdish areas.

Iran and Turkey Are the Big Losers

Whether or not the Syrian Regime and the SDF fight against eachother directly remains to be seen.  What is important to understand is that both the SDF in Syria and the KRG in Iraq in a sense create the very Kurdistan that Turkey and Iran are petrified of.  Afterall, if both the Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds can gain independence what stops the 20 million Kurds in Turkey and the 15 million Kurds in Iran from doing the same thing.

Look for Iran, Syria, and even Turkey to cooperate against what they see as the growing Kurdish threat to their hegemony. It will then be up to Putin to decide how to proceed against the world’s largest group of people still without a state.

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Iran is Scared of an Independent Kurdistan

September 25th will be remembered in history as the day which saw the beginning of the unraveling of the post WW1 global order.  When the Kurds of Iraq finally vote for breaking away from Iraq and declaring an independent Kurdish state, the veil covering the artificial boundaries that exist throughout the Middle East will be lifted.

The countries that will be affected directly will not just be Iraq, but Syria, Turkey, and most importantly Iran. Iran itself is home to 15 million Kurds, which is three times the amount of Kurds in Iraq.

Seyyed Mohammad Javad Abtahi an Iranian MP said that President Barzani of the Kurdish Regional Government’s actual plan is to annex Kurdish areas of Turkey and Iran.

“Barzani is seeking to establish an independent Kurdistan consisting of Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk provinces,” he said, and that “Barzani then plans to annex Kurdish regions of Turkey, Syria and Iran step by step.”

Iran, has for years treated the Kurdish areas as second class forcibly conscripting Kurds into the army.  The Kurds of Iran actually had an independent state called Mahabat in 1946 until the Shah backed by the USA crushed it. This would effectively mean the Iranians are acutally occupying foreign land.

What bothers Iran the most from an independent Kurdistan is that it would block its advance between Iran and Lebanon.  Not to mention, the KRG itself would act in coordination with Israel and the USA against the growing Shiite crescent.

“But today, new reports show that the US is behind the idea to create a new cancerous tumor like Israel along Iranian borders,” Abtahi said.  “The US claims it is against the referendum but in reality Washington is interested in the idea. It is also investing huge amounts of money in supporting Peshmerga forces.”

Although the Iranians have insisted they will not get involved with internal Iraqi issues, our sources tell us the Iranian military has begun to move its army into Iranian Kurdish areas as well as positioning its forces to be ready to deal with an independent Kurdistan in Iraq.

 

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Are Russia and China Purposely Setting Up a War Between the US and North Korea?

Russian President who is in China for the BRICS summit came out strongly today against increased sanctions and at the same time warned against revving up war rhetoric.




Putin who along with China seem to be supportive of doing something about North Korea’s regime, actually have proposed nothing concrete in dealing with the rogue nation.

“Ramping up military hysteria in such conditions is senseless; it’s a dead end,” Putin said at the BRICS summit. “It could lead to a global, planetary catastrophe and a huge loss of human life. There is no other way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, save that of peaceful dialogue.”

The question remains that if Russia and China are truly interested in stopping North Korea, why are they not committed to shutting down Kim Jong Un’s oil supply. Doing so, would leave him about two weeks until his country would cease to function.

Goading America to Attack

The only explanation to the behavior of Russia and China is that they are purposely provoking a USA attack in order to create as much chaos as possible. For Russia, an America embroiled in an al out war with North Korea and probably China is an America less focued on Putin’s advancement across Eastern Europe or even his consolidation of forces in Syria.

For China, its economic and military strength has grown to the point of igniting a push back by the US Security State. Any sort of chaos allows China to continue to move into the Middle East while at the same time sucking even more money out of the over taxed USA.

The challenge for both of these countries is containing the chaos once it starts.  As the USA learned through its creation of ISIS, chaos might be useful for shortwhile, but uncontrolled it can bite its own creator. With Russia and China now leaving little room for a diplomatic solution, America and its allies can ill afford to allow Kim Jong Un to shoot off an ICBM loaded with an H-Bomb Eastward.  Furthermore, if his threats of setting of an EMP are credible, Trump has little time to waste maneuvering with Russia and China.

Worse than the above, North Korea can now sell nuclear weapons direct to Iran or Syria whose militaries sit on Israel’s Northern border under Russian protection.

The argument to hold off striking North Korea because many people will die has now been proven untenable, since everyday Trump waits increases the amount of potential casualties.  With South Korea and Japan pining to remilitarize, a teetering American republic cannot waste time playing chicken with China and Russia, but rather should arm its allies in the region with the means to strike hard at their adversary in the North.