Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Battle Over Kirkuk Begins, Turkey Supports Baghdad Against Kurdistan

The battle over Kirkuk has officially begun as Iranian and Iraqi forces enter the city of Kirkuk with US weapons gifted to Iraq for use only on ISIS. The Kurdish Peshmerga under threat from A1-Abrams Tanks now in the hands of the Hashd Al-Shaabi (an Iranian backed militia in Iraq) fell back to the city’s center.

Kurdish casuties have already been reported by Kurdistan 24 and Rudaw.

Peshmerga reinforcements have been sent from Erbil to push out the Iran-Iraq army now occupying Kirkuk and the oil rich region around it.

In a breaking development Turkey has publicly backed Baghdad over the Kirkuk crisis in a carefully worded statement:

“We are closely following the steps the Iraqi government is taking to establish its constitutional sovereignty over Kirkuk, the homeland of our Turkmen kin throughout history. Turkey will side with the Iraqi government in taking steps to ensure lasting peace and stability in the country,” the statement read.

Turkey has reportedly built up their defenses against the Syrian Kurds in preparation of their own assault against the Kurdish region in Syria.

Will US Back the Kurds?

Given that Baghdad, after years of US support has openly handed over A1-Abrams to America’s number one enemy, Iran, as well as after years of training with the US has now openly switched allegience to Tehran, US policy must change.  In order to hold Iran back the Kurds must be seen as the frontlines in stopping Persian expansion.

Given the fast pace of events in and around Kirkuk, the US military leadership has been reported to be meeting with Kurdish leadership in Erbil.  This meeting is a foreshadowing of preperations for a push back against the onlsaught by the merged Iran-Iraq army.

 

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Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi Close in on Kurdistan

The Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi, which is an Iranian proxy in Iraq has been reportedly moving in on Kirkuk as of Friday.  The group, backed by the Iraqi military gave the Peshmerga and Kirkuk governor a list of demands.

Rudaw reports: “Peshmerga officials, including Sheikh Jaafar Mustafa, head of the 70 Force, confirmed on Friday that the Hashd al-Shaabi demanded the Peshmerga leave their posts south and west of Kirkuk in order to allow for their forces and the Iraqi army to move in on Thursday night.”

The Iraqi government has given the Kurds until 2am on Sunday to vacate all the land it has acquired in fighting ISIS. Most of our sources in Kurdistan have confirmed this and clearly stated that the Peshmerga has no attention of pulling back.

Furthermore, these sources have confirmed that the Peshmerga, in anticipation of a wider conflict with Iranian proxies and the Iraqi military have closed the main road between Mosul and Erbil.

Iranian Revolutionary guards are reportedly already blended in with their Iraqi counterparts.

“The Iraqi army and the Hashd al-Shaabi are not the only state that are attacking us. We have intelligence with 100 percent accuracy that there are also the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards among them,” Shwan Shamerani, commander of the Peshmerga second brigade said.

The Iranian calculus is clear.  The regime in Tehran views Trump’s move to decertify the Iranian Nuclear Accord as well as placing the Revolutionary Guard on a terror group list and the rise of an independent Kurdistan as interwoven events. The Iranian regime can waste no time in taking on a rising Kurdistan.

With the Kurdish Peshmerga ready to hold onto its territory, the first big test for an independent Kurdistan is set to get underway.  With Trump’s move against Iran in the geo-political arena still fresh, the question remains whether this will translate into support for Kurdish independence on the ground. Eitherway, the coming Iranian Kurdish conflict maybe the opening shot in a wider war.

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Does Saudi Shift to Russia Leave Israel Cornered?

Saudi Arabia opened its historic four day visit to Moscow with a clear indication that it is ready shift towards the Russian orbit.  With the Kingdom penning a $3 billion arms deal with Putin and agreeing to buy Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system, the seismic shift is clearly well underway.

Up until now the prevailing assumption was that Israel had growing covert relations with the Sunni leader due to the ascendancy of Iran, but a Saudi shift to Russia puts this theory on ice.

With a US on freefall and a Russia in firm control of the Middle Eastern future, Saudi Arabia has no choice but to switch allegiences in the hope that Russia would be able to hold back Iran from attacking.

Israel has always prided itself on  having a neutral foreign policy which has allowed it in recent years to expand relations to countries previously off its radar such as China, India, and much of East Africa.  Yet, the presence of Russia and the shifting positions of its Sunni allies in the face of a US in the midst of a regional pullback, changes its calculus in relating to the growing strength of Iran on its border.

Israel can no longer pretend to remain neutral while Russia allows Israel’s Persian nemesis to gain the upperhand.  Jerusalem must decide to either stick it out by itself while its long time ally America pulls back or finally decide like the Saudis that it is better to cut a deal with Putin in hopes he holds back Iran rather than face them alone.

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SHOWDOWN IN SYRIA: The Coming Israel-Iran War in Syria

For all the negativity surrounding the agreement forged between the USA and Russia at the G20 summit in July to impose a ceasefire agreement for the Southwestern part of Syria close to the Israeli border, it has accomplished a few things that had been left in the shadows to ferment.

The first is that the agreement exposed the lie that both the US and Russia were sort of passive players in a chaotic conflict both were just trying to manage.  The very fact that both super powers had the power to actually enforce such an agreement makes it clear that the two were behind the maelstrom of fighting from the beginning.

The second is that the control over the Quneitra and Daraa provinces given over to Russia and defacto Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran means that Israel’s ability to stay out of open conflict with Iran is over. The Israeli government has been content up until in now to use local rebels in battling regime forces, Hezbollah, and Iranian militias, but with the Russians in the neighborhood this strategy has been effectively terminated.

This means that Israel must take on Iran in Syria or risk becoming isolated while the Persians strengthen their hold over the region. The air attacks on various Iranian and Hezbollah installations in Syria make it apparent that Israel is willing to increase its operations there. Yet, there are significant factors that will mean that an Iranian counter-strike could be more imminent than thought.

The first is the Israel-US backed Kurdish independent state in Southern Kurdistan (situated in the KRG area of Northern Iraq). Iran sees this as a dagger pointed directly at the regime in Tehran as it not only breaks up its direct control of the region, but inspires the 15 million Iranian Kurds to agitate for independence.

The second is the increasing ease the Israeli airforce has in attacking Iranian targets in the Levant. While Putin may not be in agreement with Israel on the need to remove Iran from Syria, he appears to be willing to allow the IAF to attack when it feels necessary.

Therefore, Iran will not wait much longer to make a move against Israel or at the very least attempt to solidify its stranglehold over the Southern corridor in Syria as well as push Iraq into a direct war with the Kurdish Peshmerga.  Iran has benefitted from the six years of instability in the region.  With Israel’s ascendancy and Kurdish independence the Mullahs are looking to throw more chaos into the mix to ensure they can finish their solidification as the regions superpower.

In order to ensure this does not happen Israel must be willing to strike hard in Syria as well as push Washington to bolster a young but strategic Kurdistan.

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TURKEY CORNERED: Claims Kurdistan is a Zionist Plot

Reactions to the unfolding Iraqi Kurdish referendum for independence have been varied, with countries like Canada saying they support it, while Iran and Iraq claiming to be prepared to go to war over it.  Yet, no reaction is as telling as Turkish President Erdogan’s who said the following:

“Tell Mr. Netanyahu that we are standing at opposing sides. How can our relations be in good shape while he is the only one recognizing the [referendum] of the Regional Administration of Northern Iraq? Tell him to abandon the support,” Erdogan said.

Earlier in the month Al-Monitor reported that the Turkish press claimed that Barzani had made a deal with  Israel to let 200,000 Kurdish Jews living in Israel move back to Kurdistan.  The problem is there is no where as close to that many in Israel.

Turkey’s fear and the reason for their reaction to Israel’s overt support for an independent Kurdistan is that for Turkey and Iran any Kurdish independence will directly impact and inspire their very large Kurdish populations to do the same. There are approximately 15 million Kurds in Iran and another 20 million Kurds in Turkey. An independent Kurdistan in Northern Iraq is seen as the gateway for the rest of the occupied  Kurdish homeland to break away from the countries that have annexed their land.

Many of the Iranian Kurdish groups have bases on the Iraqi side of the porous Iranian border. These groups are natural extensions of the KDP and PUK political parties in Iraq.

Both Turkey and Iran have claimed Kurdistan is some elaborate Zionist conspiracy built by Jerusalem to dismember their countries.  What they seem to be forgetting is that it is their own actions against the indigenous Kurds and their hate for Israel that have caused the very predicament they have feared the most.

Russia and USA Stand Quietly With the Kurds

While the Iranians have had free rein in Syria under Russian auspices, Putin has taken a different track with the Iraqi Kurds, which is similar to the US strategy.  While not publicly supporting Kurdish independence like Israel has, both Putin and Trump have decided to tacitly support independence from behind.

For the USA, Kurdish independence creates a counter weight to Iran, while Putin is willing to let Iran’s push towards regional control get stalled in order to payback Turkey, who Russia considers an arch and ancient enemy.