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Allan M. Coleman

Allan is Israel Rising's American political analyst. He holds a masters in security and political analysis from the University of Missouri.

BordersFrontlines

Iran, North Korea, and the Fast Approaching End Game

by Allan M. Coleman
written by Allan M. Coleman

Two events  in the past week have now reshaped world events and the geo-political landscape for the forseeble future. The first was the Iranian launch of an advanced satellite-carrying rocket that experts believe is cover for the Islamic Republic’s long-range ballistic missile program.

The other was the second ICBM launch on Friday, carried out by the North Korean regime.  This ICBM flew 3,724km before crashing into the Sea of Japan.  Most experts concur with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s statement that, “The test confirmed that all the US mainland is within striking range.”

Trump had been banking on a year or two to convince the Chinese that they would have no choice but to reign in North Korea.  That has gone bust.

 

The long term game is over, as well as the parallel track with Iran.  There too Trump’s assumption was that Russia, if given certain “carrots” could be enticed to push back against the Ayatollah’s. The satelite launch ended that as well.

With Russia on Israel’s doorstep and Iran preparing for Middle Eastern hegemony, Trump can ill-afford to wait in order to build a coherent foreign policy.

No More White House Distractions

The firing of Reince Priebus and the appointment of General Kelly as his replacement as the new White House Chief of Staff has deep implications on America’s foreign policy.  The Trump White House could ill-afford to have the leaks continue during such a sensitive time where crucial decisions involving a two front war would have to be made. General Kelly also brings serious military experience to the White House, setting the stage for flipping the Trump administration to a war presidency.

The Israel Factor

With the Syrian war turning into an existential crisis for Israel, Jerusalem is waiting for the USA to put together a comprehensive strategy in dealing with these two interconnected threats. Given the fact that Syria appears to be the testing ground where Iranian and North Korean know-how are actually merged together on the battlefield, Israel will be called on to alleviate the burden put on America if and when an actual war would break out.

 

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BordersRegional Analysis

From Afrin to Sulaimani Kurdistan is Moving to Independence

by Allan M. Coleman
written by Allan M. Coleman

If Turkey did not want an independent Kurdistan, especially one united with West Kurdistan located in Syria, then their actions against the Kurdish enclave in Afrin have had the opposite effect.  Consistent shelling of the YPG (Syrian Kurdish Militia) in Afrin has caused the Kurds of Sulaimani, which is located far to the East near the border of Iran and Iraq to rally to their brothers in Syria.

Last week Israel Rising reported that Turkey was preparing to invade Western Kurdistan, which is located in present day Northern Syria. By amassing Turkish troops in the Kilis triangle opposite Syria, Erdogan was hoping to scare the Kurds into backing down. The opposite has happened and it appears Turkey has now caused both areas to unite in their struggle.

A united Western and Southern Kurdistan which spans from Northern Iraq into Northern Syria is considered an existential threat to Turkey. There are twenty million Kurds living in South-Eastern Turkey, which is considered occupied Northern Kurdistan. An independent Kurdistan arising on the Turkish border would inherently inspire Northern Kurdistan to break away from their Turkish occupiers.

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Frontlines

Is ISIS Really a Zionist Organization?

by Allan M. Coleman
written by Allan M. Coleman

As ISIS has ripped through much of Syria and Iraq and caused terror attacks throughout the world an undercurrent of anti-semitic and anti-Israel sentiment projects the twisted belief that ISIS was somehow created by Israel to destabilize the region.

Here is the main points behind those who spread this false accusation:

First, Israel (along with the US) created ISIS to be a block to Iran in Eastern Syria.  They quote the following leaked Defense Intelligence Agency document dated in 2012.

“there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist Principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and Der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime …”

Second, they point out that Israel is never attacked by ISIS

Third, that ISIS fights alongside the FSA East of the Golan against Syrian Regime forces.

Fourth, the Yinon Plan, written by journalist Oded Yinon in 1982, which outlines Israel’s foreign policy goals involving dismembering Iraq, Egypt, and Iraq.

Let’s tackle each point.  The first point assumes that the Middle Eastern policy pursued by Barack Obama was in-line with Israel’s needs and goals. It clearly was not. The Syrian border was the calmest border Israel had and showed no signs of heating up.  If anything, Israel has only lost with Syria’s disintegration as it has pushed Assad further into the hands of Iran and brought Iran closer to Israel’s border.

The second point is absurd as there was just a rocket attack by ISIS this week,there have been attacks on the Golan, and a border guard was killed almost two weeks ago by ISIS assailants.

The third point seems to have legs until we see that Israel has targeted ISIS militias near the Golan as it has the Syrian regime.  Arguing that ISIS and the Free Syrian Army are the same thing does not hold up.  Other than both ISIS and FSA outlining the Assad regime as it s enemy, they have no real overt working relationship. While it’s true many ISIS fighters have melted into the FSA as well as the two groups communicating with each other, this is more or less a product of both fighting the menacing Syrian regime.

The fourth point, citing the Yinon Plan has no merit as Israel has already made peace with Egypt and Jordan and shows no interest destabilizing either.

What we do know with certanty is that ISIS was a creation and amalgamation of former Sadaam loyalists and American armed Jihadists whose goals were aligned in taking over the Levant and Iraq.  It  is clear that Obama jumpstarted ISIS through transference of weapons to anti-Assaf Salafists.

Blaming Israel or reinventing a neo-Elders of Zion outlook on world events in order to make sense of a crumbling world does not help to wash away the facts in that Israel has far more to lose with a chaotic Middle East than it does with stable regional actors.

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Borders

North Korea, Donald Trump, and Obama’s Controlled Chaos

by Allan M. Coleman
written by Allan M. Coleman

With news coming out of North Korea that the regime has in fact tested another engine for an ICBM capable of reaching the USA, observers are begining to wonder if the only real solution to North Korea is war. Russia and China have alredy moved troops to the border as early as May when tensions began to increase, but now any pressure the international community might have had (especially China) on the North Korean regime has melted.

President Trump himself acknowledged this in a tweet.

The world like the Syria crisis moves ever closer to the point of no return. If the Kim regime would get an ICBM, it’s nuclear ambitions would be fully realized.  This means the Trump administration has little time to avert a fully nuclear capable North Korea, which would destablize Asia and upend America’s dominance in the Pacific, not to mention being held “captive” by a mad man who could decide to nuke America whenever he got angry.

So how did we get here?  Afterall, even the most ardent Trump critics do not blame the crisis on him. The North Korean nuclear program flourished under Obama after it achieved break out under Bush.

The Obama administration could  have stopped it early on, but allowed it to develop and grow. Why?

Everything the Obama administration did when it came to foreign policy should be seen through the prism of chaos creation.  This can be applied to funding ISIS ( in its early days), Black Lives Matter, not preventing Russia from entering Syria, and of course North Korea.

This attempt at creating controlled chaos serves both the Deep State and the Globalists, because chaos breeds the need for placing a new order so as to provide a solution where there was none within the chaos. This allows the Deep State and Globalists to take more control.

The problem is, chaos cannot be controlled.  It goes the way it wants and almost never where the party who creates intends it to. The world is at the precipice because the Deep State and Globalist elite network of rulers has put us there.

Donald Trump will have no choice but to take down the North Korean regime. It is clear he does not wnat to go to war, but an ICBM in the hands of a madman is not an option. In the ensuing chaos, the Deep State and Globalists will attempt to assert control, but the chaos may very well be too much even for them.

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PartnershipsPoliticsRegional Analysis

Has the Trump Administration been Arabized?

by Allan M. Coleman
written by Allan M. Coleman

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_btn title=”FOR $5/MONTH YOU CAN SUPPORT ALLAN’S WRITING” color=”primary” size=”lg” align=”center” button_block=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paypal.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebscr%3Fcmd%3D_s-xclick%26hosted_button_id%3DPBTQ2JVPQ3WJ2|||”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The struggle between the US Deep State and the Trump administration can probably be felt the most in foreign policy, especially when it comes to Israel. It is no secret that Donald Trump wants to arrive at a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. Despite the goal, administration or at least many in the administration believe the method rto arrive at such a coveted agreement should be far different than those attempted before.

According to a Channel 20 report, the White House has presented a set of principles to restart negotiations between both sides. The principles include:

  • Tempering construction in Judea and Samaria
  • Security measures in coordination with Jordan and the Gulf States 
  • Normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states

The thorny issues of Jerusalem and the refugees will dealt with after real normalization takes place.

The same report cites Israel as wanting to add two more principles to the list:

  • Cessation of incitement to violence on the part of the Palestinians
  • Cessation of payments to terrorists and their families

The important part to this report is the fact that the White House is demanding that real normalization between the Sunni Arab world takes place first. At first glance, this appears to be a break through in approach. However, lets keep in mind that the Saudi Peace Plan, which calls for a full Israeli retreat to the arbitrary green line expects the same thing. There is an argument to be made that Trump has succeeded in calling for a change in order in that this normalization must come first, but at the end of the day normalization can be reversed if the Arabs feel Israel is not “retreating” fast enough.

Any connection between an Israeli retreat and the ethnic cleansing of its Jewish citizens to normalizing ties to Arab states who only yesterday were funding Hamas, ISIS, and the Muslim Brotherhood smacks a severe disconnect with the issues at the core of the conflict.

With all of that being  said the Trump administration seems intent on battling back the State Department’s classic approach on the subject of Israel-Palestinian peace by disconnecting Foggy Bottom from the process altogether. The truth is that any process will have negative effects, yet there is something to say in battling back the Deep State, which has been embedded at the State Department for decades.

The key person to look at it in all of this is the President’s long time lawyer and confidant, Jason Greenblatt.  As one source involved in the White House said:

“There’s basically only one guy – Jason Greenblatt. That’s it. There’s no office, there’s no bureaucracy.”

 

Greenblatt is an orthodox Jew and deeply connected to the right-wing in Israel. The crafting of the above principles clearly came from him. Once again, this seems excellent for Israel. On the other hand, the State Department, which has been Arabized since the 1940’s has clearly convinced the Trump administration by way of Rex Tillerson and Gen. McMaster that the Arab peace proposal should be considered as an important part of an overall framework.

So how much has their influence crept into an overall policy by the President?  This is hard to know and won’t be known until negotiations reach a decisive phase where Trump’s loyalties to one of the sides will be tested.

Regardless of this, Tillerson’s comments to a Senate Committee regarding Palestinian payments to terrorists should be noted and done so with concern:

“They have changed their policy,” Tillerson said, referring to the Palestinians. “At least I have been informed they’ve changed that policy and their intent is to cease payments.”

 

The problem with this statement is that the Palestinians admit themselves that they did not change their policy concerning payments to terrorist families.

“There have been talks about making the payments in a different way, but not ending them,” said one official, according to Reuters who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on discussions held with the Americans. “They could perhaps be labeled differently,” he said, suggesting the description “martyr” could be dropped, but he added: “They are not going to be stopped.”

 

Israel concurred and added:

“Israel is unaware of any change in the policy of the Palestinians, who continue to make payments to the families of terrorists.”

 

This purposeful obfuscation presents a challenge to those who understand that the peace process is nothing more than a globalist imperative to break down Israel’s ancestral rights to Land with a false occupation narrative. Will Tillerson and McMaster win out? That depends on the coordination between Greenblatt and Israeli officials who are being very careful to point out the Arabs true reasons for normalizing relations with Israel.

At the end of the day, if Donald Trump wants a deal no matter the cost and the Arabs continue to shower accolades on him, then the peace process he hopes to invigorate will turn out to be a disaster.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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