Whether or not the US ceasefire with the Houthis holds and President Trump can somehow twist the Iranian regime into a deal, there is a new emerging order happening across the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent.
India and Pakistan have been at a standoff with an increased push to an all out war since April 23rd due to a terrorist attack carried out by Islamic extremists from Pakistan against tourists in the disputed Kashmir region. The Resistance Front (TRT), a militant group that claims it is fighting for a free Kashmir, but is really an off shoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Salafist Pakistani terrorist organization initially claimed responsibility for the killing of the 26 non-muslim tourists (one muslim was also killed).
TRT later retracted responsibility, Indian Prime Minister Neandra Modi came under enormous pressure to hold Pakistan responsible for the terror attack, the worst such attack since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Pakistan has often played both sides in their disagreements with India. Many officers in the Pakistani military also have affiliation with Lashkar-e-Taiba.
After the attack India cancelled the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, which regulates the use of the shared water system between the two countries. In response Pakistan cancelled the 1972 Simla Agreement, which determined land swaps at the end of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971.
On May 7th, India undertook air and missile strikes across several cities in Pakistan. India reported the death of several terrorists while the Pakistani armed forces claimed they shot down five Indian fighter jets.
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So how does the current India-Pakistan war connect to Israel? The Jihadists in Pakistan are using Islam to fight against India over Kashmir, a disputed province between Pakistan and India. These are Salafist Muslims.
Muslim Brotherhood, which is the parent organization of Hamas is also Salafist. Qatar, Turkey (at least Erdogan’s party), parts of Saudi Arabia, and the non-Houthi areas of Yemen as well as Egypt are Salafists – meaning they oppose liberalizing Islam.
Turkey’s involvement on the side of Pakistan against India can be explained in part by Erdogan’s Salafist roots in the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkish Air Force C-130 aircraft and a warship reached Pakistan even before India’s retaliatory strike on May 7th.
While Shiite hegemony in the Middle East begins to collapse the Sunni Jihadist forces that have been nurtured by Turkey and Qatar are rearing their heads in full force. We see this clearly in the massacres that are taking place in Syria and in the war Israel has waged against its genocidal enemy Hamas in Gaza.
Over the past few years a growing alliance has formed between India and Israel. The quiet relationships burst out into open military and technology partnerships after Modi’s first trip to Israel in 2017. That same year, the countries signed a military agreement worth US$2 billion.
As of 2022, India is Israel’s largest client for military equipment sales, and Israel is India’s second-largest supplier of military equipment. Approximately 42.1% of all Israeli arms exports are received by India. Israel has spent $3.2 billion on crude oil and diamonds from India as of 2022.
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As America pulls back from the Middle East, the India and Israel alliance will be forced to strengthen even more in order to ensure stability in the region and forge and axis to Jihadists that are running amok in both the Middle East and the Indian Sub-Continent.
With Pakistani tanks now lining up on the Indian border and Israel being forced to take out Sunni Jihadists in Syria and Gaza and Shiite Jihadists in Yemen and Iran, the existentialist nature of the current conflicts on the only two non-Muslim nations in the region are key for the West’s survival.
With Turkey now in the mix in both nation’s conflicts, the dots are easily connected and helping to forge a clear sided policy both in India under the Modi Hindu Nationalists and Jerusalem’s rightwing government.
While the neo-isolationist direction of the Trump administration appears to be leading to a chaotic policy and a rush to exit the world stage while trying to pretend not to, the slow pace of its pull back is giving time for Israel and India (and places like the UAE and Saudia Arabia) to make the kind of choices necessary to hold off the Muslim Brotherhood fueled legions being pushed by Turkey and Qatar.
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