After weeks of relentless bombing by the US military and two days of precision strikes by Israel that destroyed the Houthi controlled port at Hodeidah and the international airport in Sanaa, the Houthis informed the US through Oman that they want to stop the war.
President Trump for his part wasted no time in announcing this. “They said please don’t bomb us any more and we’re not going to attack your ships,” Trump said of the Houthis during an Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. “And I will accept their word, and we are going to stop the bombing of the Houthis effective immediately.”
The Houthis have made it clear that this ceasefire only applies to the US and themselves. Israel is not part of the arrangement. In fact, the Houthis have warned that despite their ceasefire with the United States, they will kepp on attacking Israel.
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So what was gained by the ceasefire and can Israel go it alone against the Houthis and possibly Iran?
So where does this leave Israel strategically? Without the US involved can they continue to take on the Houthis?
President Trump has made it clear, he wants to be known as a Peace President. For Trump, the Houthis were an obvious low hanging fruit that had to be taken care of for mainly two reasons.
The first is international shipping. The US can only remain the world’s current reigning Super Power if they enforce open seas. 12% of the World’s trade flows through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea and the Houthis had essentially froze it. That is devastating to a world economy already suffering from inflation. Trump had no choice but to ensure that the Red Sea remain open to shipping.
The second reason Trump had to handle the Houthis was to send a strong message to Iran. By taking the Houthis out as a regional threat it essentially disables Iran’s last remaining “tentacle” in the region (besides the Shiite Militias in Iraq).
President Trump is due to arrive in the region on a three day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13th to May 15th. The President wanted this ceasefire by the time he landed next week, but until Israel was forced to respond to the Houthis attack on Ben Gurion airport by blowing up Hodeidah Port and the International Airport in Sanaa, the Houthis were not ready to discuss stopping the war with America.
So Can Israel Go It Alone Against The Houthis?
In short, yes. The attacks Israel launched on the Houthi controlled areas of Yemen over the last two days were devastating. They essentially crippled the Houthi capability to get restocked by Iran, cutting the rebel group off from its main backers.
This does not mean the Houthis cannot attack Israel. They can and most probably will, but their ability to acquire more ballistic missiles from Iran is now limited and so if they fire too many ballistic missiles they will quickly run out reducing themselves to small time players they probably should have remained if it were not for Iran.
Israel’s back to back strikes and the US campaign Rough Rider initiated on March 15th has left the Houthis little choice but to beg for peace.
Israel’s strikes have also sent a message to Iran. If they can reach Yemen which is farther away than Iran, then Iran which as of now has little to none air defenses is essentially an easy target for the Israeli Air Force.
With the slew of clandestine explosions in Iran as well a lack of an air defense system, Israel may be able to pull off a serious attack on Iran with or without US help. Perhaps this has been the plan the whole time.
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