Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli Security Cabinet approved the IDF’s next stage of fighting in Gaza this morning. According to reports 70,000 reserve soldiers are to be called up and will be filling the ranks of the IDF in the coming weeks.
There has been an assumption that this call up is to push forward for the final battle in Gaza to destroy Hamas, occupy the Gaza Strip, and locate hostages. The IDF Chief of Staff said the following today: “This week we are issuing tens of thousands of orders to our reservists in order to enhance and expand our operation in Gaza. We are increasing pressure in order to bring back the hostages and defeat Hamas. We will operate in additional areas and destroy all infrastructure above and below ground.” Despite this sort rhetoric coming out of the IDF, 70,000 soldiers is not enough to finish the war.
So what is the plan?
The IDF currently controls around 30% of the Gaza Strip, including an increased buffer zone around the entirety of the strip and essentially all of Rafah.
The original plan for occupying Gaza calls for an overwhelming amount of forces emptying area after area to the predesignated humanitarian zone in Muwasi allowing for the IDF to isolate the remaining Hamas fighters. Afterwards a full IDF military occupation would ensue.
Given the current stalemate with the hostages, the IDF is tweaking the plan and decided to rev up the complete takeover in stages in order to pressure Hamas to release the hostages.
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So why only 70,000 soldiers?
Many of these reserve soldiers will not be sent to Gaza, but will be rotated into Judea and Samaria as well as the five bases in southern Lebanon in order to allow professional soldiers to be moved into Gaza. The next stage is meant to press into Gaza from the north (through Gaza City) and from the south through Khan Yunis. This is meant to place maximum pressure on the the following two areas that have barely been touched in the war. Both Nuseirat and Deir Al Balah are viewed as the final strong holds of Hamas and have been fairly untouched in the war. The reason is that IDF intelligence believes most of the hostages and senior Hamas leaders are there.
Sources I have been in touch with have told me that Deir Al Balah and Nuseirat remain no-go zones for the IDF in order to not risk the hostages’ lives. The next stage will likely keep away from these areas aside from small forays to give Hamas one more chance to cut a deal. If there is no deal – one should expect a further call up that will allow a complete push into the final two untouched areas and ultimately reoccupy the entire Gaza Strip.
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