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Does Turkey’s Capture of Key Town in Afrin Matter?

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Sources from Afrin, Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava) claim the Turkish Army and FSA proxy Bulbul, considered to be a strategic town at the center of the Bulbul district, which is just north of Afrin.  The Turkish army claims over 24 Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) were killed and at least one other was captured by Turkish forces during fighting in the town.

The Turkish-backed FSA groups also announced that their fighters had captured the villages of Ali Kar, Za’ra and al-Ham in the Bulbul district.

The SDF stated that its defense forces had killed 20 Turkish soldiers during fighting in the village of Qurna. The SDF also said its fighters destroyed Turkish Army vehicle in the village of Za’ra.

The Turkish Anadolu Agency reported that the Turkish Air Force (TAF) destroyed 18 SDF positions in the general Afrin area in overnight attacks. Kurdish sources are reporting that over 104 civilians have been killed, and 156 other have been injured in the TAF bombardment so far.

Does Erdogan’s Incursions Matter for Turkey?

With Turkey’s invasion into Syrian Kurdish territory taking longer than expected, the Turkish President Erdogan is increasingly hurting his relationship with the West and even Russia.  He may be playing to his base, but without serious gains early on and high civilian casulties, Turkey risks eventual isolation with the very countries it needs.

Still in question is whether Erdogan is willing to go head to head with American troops.  If so, buckle up, the Middle East will get far more bumpy.

 

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Borders

CHAOS GROWING: Turkey Risking War Against the US and Russia

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Some people are gamblers and others are just downright insane.  Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of Turkey appears to be shifting from political gambler to a completely insane autocrat.  Turkey’s current invasion of the autonomous Syrian Kurdish enclave of Afrin has not only unnerved the United States, who is the main backer of the the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but Russia’s Putin as well.  Given the neo Cold War relationship between Russia and the USA, Erdogan has actually accomplished an astounding feet.

Due to the SDF’s American training and advanced weaponry, Turkey has found its operation harder than originally expected.  Most leaders would stop after watching a number of their tanks get blown up in the first hours of combat, but this has made Erdogan more set on invading the Kurdish areas of Northern Syria.  He claims that he will move South into Idlib as well as moving forces into the Kurdish heartland of Manbij which hosts a sizeble American base.

Courtesy of Syria War Map

“We will rid Manbij of terrorists, as it was promised to us, and our battles will continue until no terrorist is left until our border with Iraq,” Mr Erdogan said this past Friday.

This maneuver alone brings Erdogan close to a direct confrontation with US soldiers who according to reports have not planned on moving aside for Turkey’s assault.

As far as the possibility of the US pulling its forces from the Manbig, General Joseph Votel, head of the United States Central Command, Speaking on CNN, said that withdrawing US forces from the strategically important city is “not something we are looking into.”

Yet Erdogan insists he is in the right as his Turkish forces are simply destroying “terrorists.”  The question is whether Erdogan will actually make a move against US forces in Manbij.  For the US, there has been no question that its position in the area is not only just, but necessary.

“Turkey knows where our forces are in Manbij, and what they are doing there, and why they are there –to prevent any kind of escalation between the groups who are in that area,” Dillon told Rudaw TV. “The Coalition will continue to support our Syrian Democratic Forces in the fight against ISIS. We have said this all along, and we have said this with the Kurdish elements of the SDF. We will provide them equipment as necessary to defeat ISIS.”

As if this was not enough, Erdogan’s move South to Idlib brings Russia into the mix.  The following set of Tweets from Jenan Moussa, reporter for Arabic Al Aan TV gives over another one of Erdogan’s toughtless maneuvers.

With Russia appearing not to decide to move out of the way for Erdogan’s scheme to rebuild the Ottoman Empire, the die is cast for a very explosive expansion of the Syrian war.

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Borders

Erdogan is the Real Terrorist in Syria, Not the Kurds

by Orit ben Tzvi
written by Orit ben Tzvi

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a brutal assault on the Kurdish majority Syrian region of Afrin on Saturday.  Dubbed “Operation Olive Branch,” the Turkish government insists it is cleaning out the area of Kurdish “Terrorists.”

Afrin is controlled by the Kurdish dominated SDF and trained and armed by the US government to defeat ISIS and offer an alternative leadership to the Assad regime.  Erdogan has a nasty habit of claiming and suspecting every Kurd of being a terrorist.

The truth is, Erdogan and his own family funded and aided ISIS for the past few years in order to sow chaos in Syria and Iraq.  The project worked until more and more countries figured out that Turkey itself was behind the rise of the Sunni Jihadists.  Why would Erdogan fund ISIS?  Turkey has always wanted to regain its former stature and what better way to do that than createenough chaos that it would be forced to go in and stablize it. Now that Erdogan and the Turkish government has been forced out of that strategy by Russia, Iran, and even the US, it has decided to use the chaos to go after a new terrorist entity…the Kurds.

For Erdogan everyone else is the terrorist.  However, in the first 24 hours of his attacking Afrin, over 20 civilians have been killed with most being chilldren, including 8 members of the same family.  Keep in mind, Erdogan has ordered the Turkish army into Afrin, the SDF has not entered into Turkey. So who is the real terrorist?

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Borders

WORLD WAR 3: Turkish Ground Forces Cross Into Syria, Now in Direct Combat with Kurds

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

It has begun.  With one single directive to the Turkish forces, the Turkish ground  forces stationed near Afrin have crossed into Syria and pushed the self destruct button on NATO as we know it.  Reports out of Afrin are clear, Turkish armored divisions and troops have moved into Afrin and are now engaged in direct clashes with heavily armed American backed Syrian Kurds.

If the above tweet is accurate, the Turkish forces are already experiencing serious casulties. The SDF, whch the YPG is a majority force in, is well trained and armed with the best weapons.  This won’t be a replay of the Iranian backed occupation of Kirkuk, which seemed to catch the US off guard.

Courtesy of Syria War Map

According to Rudaw, the SDF has repelled the initial Turkish attack.  While it’s true some border villages have been captured by the Turkish army, the heavy and successful resistance is not helpful for Erdogan’s projection of success.

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Meanwhile,France has called for an urgent Security Council meeting over Turkey’s invasion.

“Ghouta, Idlib, Afrin – France asks for an urgent meeting of the Security Council,” Le Drian said on his Twitter feed. He added that he had spoken with his Turkish counterpart on Jan. 21 morning.

“France is very preoccupied by the situation in Syria and by the brutal degradation of the situation,” Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

“This is why we have called for a Security Council meeting to evaluate all the humanitarian risks, which are very serious,” he said speaking in Algiers on the sidelines of a meeting for western Mediterranean countries.

Despite Turkey’s claim that it notified Syria of the operation, the Syrian regime came out against Ankara’s actions.

“The Syrian Arab Republic decisively condemns Turkish aggression against the town of Afrin, which is an inseparable part of Syria,” a statement released by the Syrian regime said, as quoted by the SANA news agency.

NATO also chimed in and asked Turkey to act “rationally.”

So far the US has stayed quiet, but expect that to change is Erdogan keeps trying to push forward.  With Russia staying out of the fray for now, all sides in Syria are on edge for the next big development.  Given the fact that Erdogan cannot afford to retreat until he has accomplished his mission for fear of looking weak in the face of the 20 million Kurds in Turkey, this has the very real potential of shattering post World War 2 alliances as well as pulling the US and Russia directly into the quagmire.

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Borders

Chaos Continues With Turkey Threatening to Invade Syrian Kurdistan

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Turkey’s President Erdogan responded to the announcement of the US intention to train a 30,000 strong Syrian Democratic Forces to man the Syrian borders with Turkey and Iraq with increased threats of destroying the Kurdish dominated SDF.

“A country we call an ally is insisting on forming a terror army on our borders,” Erdogan said of the United States in a speech in Ankara. “What can that terror army target but Turkey?”

“Our mission is to strangle it before it’s even born.”

Turkey views the YPG unit which make up the majority of the SDF as an extension of the PKK which Turkey and most countries have labeled a terrorist organization.  However, the US views the SDF as essential to destroying ISIS and stablizing Syria.

Erdogan has utilized the Kurds equal terrorist card numerous times to justify attacking them in Syria and elsewhere.  Yet, the truth is the opposite. It was Erdogan and his family who helped to create and protect ISIS through financial assistance, safe passageways, and emergency medical treatment.

Turkey views the rise of an autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Syria similar to the one in Iraq as an existantial threat.  After all Turkey has occupied the heavily Kurdish areas of South and Southeastern Turkey for centuries.  There are 20 million Kurds in Turkey.

All of this has driven Erdogan to prove that he is indeed serious. Reports from Nusaybinden, Turkey, which borders Afrin have claimed armored vehicles and soldiers now entering the Kurdish controlled area.  Afrin is an isolated enclave and lies to the West of the main SDF areas.  Yet, this first push if successful could very well lead Turkey to try for the main center of the SDF further to the East.

Turkish tanks rolling through Nusaybinden on the way to enter Syria. (nusaybinden.com)

 

With the SDF becoming a main pillar of Washington’s proxy coalition against Iranian expansion in the region, it is hard to see the Trump administration continuing to turn a blind eye to Erdogan’s behavior.

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