Last night’s terror attack at an Istanbul night club is only the latest terror attack against Turkey. With 35 dead from the attack on New Years eve, the 45 killed in Ataturk airport last month, and a failed coup, it has become apparent that Turkey is increasingly growing unstable. Erdogan would like us to believe he has everything under control, but the pressures growing against his rule from within as well as pressures pushing against him from Russia and infuriated NATO members, his rule is growing far more unstable than previously believed.
In the Istanbul attack, CNN Turk reported the two attackers were dressed in Santa costumes. Some witnesses claimed they were speaking Arabic (not Turkish).
“Unfortunately, at least 35 of our citizens lost their lives. One was a police officer. Forty people are receiving treatment in hospitals,” Istanbul governor Vasip Sahin told reporters, according to the AFP news agency. “What happened today is a terror attack.”
Playing with ISIS is Like Playing with Fire
With Turkey working with Russia to shut down the Syrian war, ISIS (its once loyal proxy) is now turning on Erdogan and his government. When Erdogan opened the flood gates into northern Syria for ISIS to cross in order to destabilize the country, he never imagined Russia coming into the war. The plan was always for Erdogan to insert Turkey into Syria and Iraq as the great stabilizer. He won this role from Obama and NATO.
The Russian intervention has caused Turkey to pull back its support of ISIS and other Jihadist groups and make peace with Putin. This of course makes Erdogan into an apostate as far as ISIS is concerned and makes anything in Turkey a target for Jihadists.
Kurdish Rebellion in the Works
Russia has a very real interest in making sure Erdogan stays on the defensive. One gives time for Syria to finish reasserting its sovereignty throughout its country and second Turkey has less reason to interfere with Russian aspirations in the region, including northern Iraq and the eastern Mediterranean. Putin always works in two spheres of influence. One is overt, like we saw in Crimea and Syria. The other is a page ripped from the KGB cold War playbook and that is covertly funding and inspiring revolution. This we see in the Donbass region of the Ukraine. We are about to see it in southern Turkey, which has a solid Kurdish population itching for freedom.
Russia’s interests in the region intersect with Kurdish aspirations. It’s only a matter of time until Turkey feels these aspirations in a far more serious way.
Whether its ISIS, Russia, or Kurdish Independence, Erdogan’s Turkey is a country which is no longer safe or secure.
Trump spokewoman and counselor Kellyanne Conway tackled two foreign policy challenges the Obama administration created with incoming President-Elect Donald Trump. Trump wants a different relationship Russia, but with Obama expelling Russian diplomats and operatives at a scale not seen dureing the coldwar, it will make Trump’s job that much harder. In terms of Israel, Conway made it clear that Trump will be very different with the Jewish State.
PM Netanyahu cancels the visit of the Ukrainian Prime Minister to Israel. Kiev’s response; “The crisis in the Middle East is the deepest it has been throughout its history.”
Following the cancellation of the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister, Volodymyr Groysman, to Israel, the Ukrainian delegation to the United Nations responded to their support of the United Nations resolution against settlements in the Security Council.
“Unprecedented settlement activities by Israel in the palestinian territories does not help to deal with violence.”
After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled on Saturday the visit of his Ukrainian counterpart following the state support for the UN resolution against settlements, a delegation of Ukraine to the United Nations issued a message explaining Kiev’s support for the resolution. “The search for a solution is now in the deepest crisis in history,” the statement read. “The lack of prospects for reviving the peace process between Israel and the palestinians has led to an escalation of the security situation in Israel and the West Bank on a daily basis. As a result, the unprecedented settlement activities of Israel in the palestinian territories does not help deal with the violence”, said the diplomats.
In their statement, the delegation noted that the decision that was finally approved was more lenient with Israel than the original resolution and included references to palestinian terror.
“The call to Israel to stop settlement activity as a prerequisite for resolving the conflict as part of a two-state solution is not new,” the statement said. “All parties call out for efforts to achieve peace and security in the Middle East.”
The delegation made a connection between the Russian occupation of Crimea and the Israeli occupation. For Ukraine, abstention or objection to the resolution calling for a cease of illegal actions in the territories that under international law are considered occupied territory, would be contrary to the struggle on the diplomatic front against the occupation of the Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by Russia.
“These are political issues, about which positions cannot vary according to the political situation. There are national interests that do not often match the interests of our partners, especially Israel. Because of these interests, we cannot abstain or object,” it said.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement cancelling the visit of Prime Minister of Ukraine, Volodymyr Groysman to Israel, in protest against his country’s support for the draft resolution against settlements received on Friday by the UN Security Council. Groysman, who is the first Jewish Prime Minister of Ukraine elected last April, was to arrive in Israel on Wednesday.
Cancellation of the visit was one of a series of steps taken by the government following the adoption of resolution 2334 on Friday by the UN Security Council, with the support of all Council members. The United States abstained in the vote instead of vetoing the resolution. The abstention by the Obama administration has set off a furor of reactions by Israel against all those who voted in favor of the resolution and the US.
Russia’s ambassador to Turkey has been assassinated by an off-duty police officer in front of terrified witnesses allegedly in retaliation for the crisis in Aleppo. -Mirror
The attacker fired once in the air and then shot at the ambassador. Although it is too early tell who is behind the attack, the assassination attempt has the potential to start a dramatic increase in hostilities between Russia and Turkey. Both nations have shared their share of animosity over the years. Recently, a Russian aircraft was shot down by Turkey, killing the pilot. Yet, the assassination attempt if traced to pro Erdogan would take relations to a new low, possibly igniting a regional conflict.
This headline has something of an alarming 1914-ish feel to it…
Russian ambassador to Turkey shot in Ankara https://t.co/l3uyCfwbLy
If there was ever a trigger for a regional war this would be it. Russia has been looking for a reason to shot down shipping traffic in the Bosphorous for some time and could use this to do it. With weeks left to Obama’s turn, get ready for his administration to milk this for all its worth in terms of NATO involvement, especially since he knows Trump won’t aid Turkey.
Moscow is not interfering with Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Syria.
One of the most interesting stories, if not the most puzzling, is the close understanding and amity between Jerusalem and Moscow. While the Russian Air Force pounds the civilian population in Aleppo on behalf of the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and his Iranian allies, Russia is coordinating the moves of its Air Force in Syria with Israel’s Air Force. Moscow is not interfering with Israeli attacks on Hezbollah convoys carrying lethal arms shipped to Syria by Iran, as the Shiite terrorist group is attempting to move these arms to Lebanon. Walla, a Hebrew language Israeli news outlet wrote on December 1, 2016 that “Russia’s silence following reports that the Israeli Air Force bombed an arms depot and a Hezbollah bound weapons convoy in Syria on Wednesday might signal ‘tacit consent’ to such action as long as they do not harm Kremlin’s interests.” Israel, on its part, is staying out of the civil war in Syria, but provides medical assistance to wounded opposition fighters combatting the Assad regime.
The Obama administration failure to act on its announced “Red Line,” (on Assad’s use of chemical warfare on fellow Syrians) and subsequently leaving the Syrian arena in Russian hands, has damaged U.S. credibility in the region. It has also encouraged Russia to take aggressive action against opposition forces supported by the U.S., and Syrian civilians.
Gen. Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian defense ministry said according to Russian RT-TV(11/29/2016) that, “Over the past few days, well planned and careful action by the Syrian troops resulted in a radical breakthrough. Half of the territory previously held by the militants in eastern Aleppo has been de facto liberated.” Konashenkov’s cynical statement referring to the Assad regime’s brutal actions in attacking (along with Russian aerial support) civilians in homes, hospitals and schools with barrel-bombs to be “well planned and careful action,” sharply contrasts with Israeli hospitals opening their doors to perform truly humanitarian work by treating wounded Syrian civilians and fighters.
Konashenkov also stressed that “over 80,000 Syrians, including tens of thousands of children, have been freed. Many of them, at long last were able to get water, food and medical assistance at humanitarian centers deployed by Russia. Those Syrians served as human shields in Aleppo for terrorists of all flavors.” That statement is turning the truth upside down. After relentless bombing by Russian and Syrian jets that have killed thousands (mostly Sunni civilians), these Syrians do not consider Russia’s role as “humanitarian.”
Putin’s Russia has saved Bashar Assad’s skin, and has done so for purely Russian interests, including air and naval bases in the Latakia Governorate of northwestern Syria, bordering the coveted Mediterranean Sea. Putin’s Russia has planned to sell, and according to Russian and Iranian sources, already delivered to Iran the highly sophisticated S-300 air defense system. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his many meetings with Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, implored the latter not to sell such weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thomas Shannon, U.S. Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, said that, “We have made it very clear to the Russians that we consider this (the sale of the S-300) to be a bad move, that we consider it to be destabilizing and not in keeping with what we’ve been trying to accomplish, not only through the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal) , but broadly in terms of our engagement with Iran.”
Putin’s Russia alliance with the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and the repressive Islamic Republic of Iran notwithstanding, to watch the warm reception Benjamin Netanyahu received in the Kremlin by his host Vladimir Putin is most certainly eyebrow raising, if not an amazing phenomenon. Considering decades of Soviet support for Israel’s enemies, and oppression of its Jews, Putin’s Russia has a rather warm spot for the remaining Jews in Russia, and satisfaction with the Russian cultural enclave in Israel. In fact, outside the former Soviet Union, Israel has probably the largest Russian speaking population. Putin felt at home when he visited Israel, first in April, 2005, as he met for discussions with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. In June, 2012, Putin was in Israel again on an official visit. This time, he unveiled the national monument honoring the memory of Jewish soldiers in the Red Army who fought the Nazis in WWII. He also met with PM Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres. Reuter’s story by Josh Cohen on January 14, 2016 was headlined, “Vladimir Putin is the closest thing to a friendIsrael has ever had in Moscow.” And yet, Putin’s Russia has continued to vote with the Palestinians at the UN, has helped Iran with its nuclear program, and sold missiles to both Iran and Syria.
Stalin, the Soviet Union murderous tyrant was one of the first to recognize the Jewish state in 1948, and sold arms through Czechoslovakia to the nascent Jewish nation. At the same time, Stalin ordered the murder of Jewish anti-fascist leaders in Russia, and made anti-Semitism a state policy. Following the Six-Day war in 1967, the Soviet Union severed diplomatic relations with Israel, and during the War of Attrition (1969-1970), Soviet pilots flew missions for the Egyptians. Israeli pilots engaged and downed a number of Soviet pilots (Israel never publicized it in order not to inflame the Russians). During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the Soviets were heavily involved with the Arab war machine against Israel, providing Egypt and Syria with huge quantities of arms, including lethal missiles.
The last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, renewed diplomatic ties with Israel in 1991. Putin’s personal admiration for Israel elevated its profile in Russian foreign policy. The Arab market for Russian arms is a lucrative one, and it is therefore pragmatism that motivates Putin along with personal sympathy for Israel and Jews. Israel’s experience with Islamist terrorism made it sympathetic to Russia in its 1999 war in Chechnya, which dealt with combatting Islamist terror. The Jerusalem Post quoted Putin telling Netanyahu that Israel and Russia are “unconditional allies” in the war against terror. In fact, Putin was one of the few world leaders to support Israel’s Operation Protective Edge against Hamas in 2014. Putin is quoted as saying, “I support Israel’sbattle that is intended to keep its citizens protected.”
In 2008, Israel made significant gestures towards Putin’s Russia. It transferred to Russia parts of the Russian Orthodox compound (Sergei courtyard) in Jerusalem. In the same year, Israel halted military supplies to Georgia (at war with Russia at the time) for a Russian promise not to sell the S-300 air-defense system to Iran. Israel has also been neutral in the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. It did not condone Russian aggression there, but seeks to avoid alienating Moscow. For the same reason, Israel abstained on a UN vote that condemned Russia for its annexation of Crimea.
The Obama administration’s open dislike for Netanyahu’s government, has forced Israel to look elsewhere for support. Avigdor Lieberman, (a native of Moldavia, part of the former Soviet Union) Israel’s former Foreign Minister and current Defense Minister greatly enhanced Russian-Israeli relations. The incoming Trump administration, seeking to reset relations with Russia, might find Israel to be a trusted go-between in dealing with Putin. This might aid the incoming U.S. administration, while at the same time further strengthen Israeli-Russian relations.
