Tag: Putin

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WAR DRUMS: Russia Deploys Surface to Air Missiles in Crimea

Russia deployed its advanced S-400 anti-aircraft  missile system to Crimea as tensions rise in the border area with Ukraine. Reports have said at least two Russian have been killed near Ukraine increasing the likelihood of some sort of clash.

As the traditional Ukrainian government was forced from office by a Western backed coup in 2014, Crimea voted to separate from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.  Putin has since militarily controlled the strategic peninsula.

With Russia seen as an emerging power both regionally and globally, NATO has gone to great lengths to reassure allies that it will defend them.  Despite assurances, each move Putin makes sows doubt in areas that belonged to the former Soviet Union.

Map of Crimea
Map of Crimea

Already in July NATO stated it was going to bolster its military presence in the Baltic and Eastern Poland. The challenge is that NATO risks pushing Russia to continuously strengthen its presence with manuevers in Eastern Europe.  Many observers feel that the West would achieve more by trying to lower the intensity instead of committing to more troops. So far this sort of advice has not been heeded.

 

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The Great Game: Turkey-Israel Detente, Russian-Iranian Cooperation, and the Kurdish Question

The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has been an increasingly confirmative rule in middle eastern governing circles.  With the collapse of American hegemony in the region that has caused a resurgent Russia and Iran to take charge of areas that stretch from Iraq to Levant, countries normally at odds with one another have found the strange inclination to actually form alliances to offset the bear and the ayatollahs.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement took many people by surprise, but in the current geopolitical realities, the détente makes perfect sense.  Keep in mind Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all have the same enemy in Iran and fellow Shiite travellers.  Throw Putin’s Russia into the mix and the Sunni states were very quick to find the only other middle eastern nation they could bring in.  The danger of Iran and Russia is so great for these forces, Palestinian issue, which has long been used as a foil to placate the Arab street has been move to the back of the Sunni’s list of priorities.

Israel as the Anchor

Israel is actively seeking a cornerstone role in the wide-ranging alliance forming in the western part of the middle east. One can already see this in the gas deals being built between Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  With Turkey being brought on board, Israel’s role in bringing old foes to the same table is not being missed, especially by Russia, who thought it had Erdogan cornered.

Israel’s game is to offset Russia’s power play to its north by giving a lifeline to Turkey, Russia’s age-old adversary.  For now it seems to be working, although it is clear Russia is remains unnerved by the “Great Game” and is willing to pressure Israel by backing up Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces on the Golan border.

What About the Kurds?

Kurdistan as it is known by all Kurdish people across the middle east is spread across northern Syria, Iraq, southern Turkey, and western Iran. Turkey’s main challenge is to dissuade the Kurds from working directly with Russia. If they are not able to, then Russia will have  a fifth column of 10 million strong disenfranchised Kurds inside Turkey to use as leverage if needed.

Right now, barring a severe flare up in Israel’s northern border the “Great Game” of the middle east is in its early phases.  Geo-political maneuvering is still fresh and fluid.  Russia may opt to play neutral in the burgeoning alliance system and let Iran and Syria go it alone.  Russia may also be able to convince Israel to remain neutral as well in exchange for security promises.  No matter the outcome, this “Great Game” will not take 100 years like the last one as America’s pull back has shuffled the deck and wrought chaos on what was already considered a chaotic region.

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WAR DRUMS: Is a Golan Clash Imminent?

What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today.  In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days.  A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.

Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed.  Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.

Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?

Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual.  Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.

Already Out of Putin’s Hands

There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian.  Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.

Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border.  Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention.  As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted.  Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.

In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?

 

 

 

 

 

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Hezbollah Drone Maybe a Harbringer for Renewed Fighting with Israel

The collective wisdom is that Hezbollah is too caught up with supporting the Assad government’s fight against ISIS to attack Israel, but Hezbollah’s penetration of Israel’s airspace in the Golan yesterday using a drone, may be an indication that things are about to change.

The IDF fired two Patriots at the drone and missed their target.  The drone made it back to its origin in Syria.  For Hezbollah, drones are a perfect form of both psychological warfare and reconnaissance. The important question is whether this is more of the same from Hezbollah or should Israel be prepared for renewed combat against Hezbollah.

In the last year the area West of the Golan has been the scene of warfare between Jihadist like Al-Nusra or ISIS and Hezbollah and Syrian Government Forces. There have been stray shells that penetrated the Golan and other incidents, but Hezbollah until recently has stayed focused on extraditing the Assad regime from the grips collapse.

The ramifications of renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel could be wide. The IDF will have to contend with Iranian troops as well as the Syrian army which is looking to raise morale. Fighting the “Zionists” is an excellent way to do that. The real unknown is Russia’s reaction.  Putin has taken a liking to Israel and wants it within his sphere of influence, yet is fully aware that he has supported Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria in their fight against ISIS.  At some point Putin will have to make a decision on which party to support for the long term. Renewed combat between Israel and Hezbollah will bring that decision to the forefront.

 

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, False Flag Coup, and the Rise of the New Sultanate

There are times when rulers reach a zenith in their power.  Some of them fall away and others find a way to reverse course and rise again.  The failed coup in Turkey over the weekend marks the lowest point Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It also marks that moment that Erdogan shifts Turkey from a secular democracy to a neo-sultanate once and for all.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the failed coup to do what he has always wanted to do.  He has wasted no time in purging the Turkish courts and military of secular members and tightening his grip on the country.

The real question though is why did this coup involve only junior members of the military? If it had such support how could it fail so miserably?

There are many answers, but one likely possibility is that Erdogan himself could have staged the coup in order to give credence to his wanton desire to take full control over Turkey. If this seems far fetched, Erdogan has been accused of false flag attacks before. One such incident was uncovered last year and reported at Shoebot.com: “Twitter whistleblower Fuat Avni claimed on Monday that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ordered the intelligence agency head to stage a false assassination plot against his son Bilal Erdoğan in order to blame the Gülen movement.”

Others have reported that Erdogan himself has been quite open on the need to use a false flag operation to make an excuse for sending troops into Syria.

The coup attempt in the last 24 hours has been very weak, lending fuel that this was indeed a false flag attack.

Erdogan has always been quite clear in seeing his role as one of a reinstated sultan, presiding over an expansive rebuilt Ottoman Empire.  Since he has become president, Erdogan has increasingly solidified control, while expanding Islamic influence throughout the Republic of Turkey. No one should forget that it was Recep Tayyip Erdogan who made the following statement: “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers…”

Russia Will Not Wait

If it becomes clear that Erdogan is in fact strengthening his grip in a far more complete way than he already has, Russia will not hesitate to make moves to check Turkey in order to ensure Erdogan can do little harm to Putin’s influence in the region.

In the coming weeks the rapprochement moves that had been underway between the two countries may very well become frozen if Putin feels the need to put the Turkish ruler back in his place.

Israel will Stay Neutral

Despite reconciliation between Israel and Turkey, the last thing Israel wants is a newly emboldened Erdogan.  If Erdogan is really about to transform Turkey into a sultanate, Israel will think twice before restarting weapons sales to its military.  With Russia and Israel building a closer friendship the two will be in coordination. This means that Israel is quietly positioning itself in opposition to NATO’s strategy in regards to both Russia and Turkey.

The USA is Backed Into a Corner

Obama quickly mumbled support for Erdogan.  This, even as Erdogan is holding troops USA troops hostage until the United States extradites Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, the Turkish preacher Erdogan claims is behind the coup.

 

 

It is too early to see what Obama will do, but most probably nothing. Afterall, Turkey is a NATO ally and is needed as a forward base to bomb ISIS. Look for Gulen to be extradited or this to be settled quietly behind the scenes.

Erdogan has always been focused on spearheading political Islam at a regional level.  The question isn’t whether he wants to be a sort of neo-sultan, but how. I think we have just seen the first steps in Erdogan’s strategy.