BREAKING NEWS: Turkey Invades Syria as Next Stage in War Begins

Multiple sources are reporting that Turkish special forces backed by artillery fire and F-16’s have begun a direct military assault on ISIS positions in Northern Syria.  Turkish combat units such as regular infantry and tanks have rolled up to the Syrian border and are preparing to enter sovereign Syrian territory for the first time.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:

Daesh [ISIS] should be completely cleansed from our borders and we are ready to do what it takes for that.

This change in Turkey’s relationship to the ongoing Syrian civil war is drastic and very well can lead to untold consequences as  Turkey’s goals both align with the anti-ISIS coalition as well as are in conflict with it.  Erdogan often times uses ISIS as a foil to attack Kurdish positions in both Syria and Iraq.  The Turkish government has resigned itself to a Kurdish autonomous zone in Northern Iraq, but when the Syrian Kurds literally declared a federalized autonomous entity in Northern Syria, Turkey knew it had limited time to react before an inevitable Kurdish state arose on its border stretching from the Mediterranean to Iran.

The anti-ISIS particulars behind Turkey’s intensifying an already out of control conflict gives it the wiggle room it needs to invade Syria.  The only question remains is whether Putin agreed to this or not. If he did not, then the Syrian civil war just got a whole lot uglier.

Yet, if this was agreed between Erdogan and Putin beforehand then the Russian leader must have promised Erdogan something big in return for destroying the very group Turkey helped set up in order to make a lot of money off the illegal oil trade.  Of course, Erdogan didn’t do this alone.  US and NATO were at least complicit with the set up of ISIS, a radical Sunni group in Eastern Syria. Using oil as payment to Turkey, NATO and the US were free to establish a blocking force against Iranian advancement, albeit one that has grown out of control.

Now with Turkey’s pivot to Russia, ISIS is more of a hindrance than a help.  So what is the quid pro quo from Russia? Russia’s abandonment of the Kurds makes that an easy answer.

 

The Great Game: Turkey-Israel Detente, Russian-Iranian Cooperation, and the Kurdish Question

The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has been an increasingly confirmative rule in middle eastern governing circles.  With the collapse of American hegemony in the region that has caused a resurgent Russia and Iran to take charge of areas that stretch from Iraq to Levant, countries normally at odds with one another have found the strange inclination to actually form alliances to offset the bear and the ayatollahs.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement took many people by surprise, but in the current geopolitical realities, the détente makes perfect sense.  Keep in mind Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all have the same enemy in Iran and fellow Shiite travellers.  Throw Putin’s Russia into the mix and the Sunni states were very quick to find the only other middle eastern nation they could bring in.  The danger of Iran and Russia is so great for these forces, Palestinian issue, which has long been used as a foil to placate the Arab street has been move to the back of the Sunni’s list of priorities.

Israel as the Anchor

Israel is actively seeking a cornerstone role in the wide-ranging alliance forming in the western part of the middle east. One can already see this in the gas deals being built between Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  With Turkey being brought on board, Israel’s role in bringing old foes to the same table is not being missed, especially by Russia, who thought it had Erdogan cornered.

Israel’s game is to offset Russia’s power play to its north by giving a lifeline to Turkey, Russia’s age-old adversary.  For now it seems to be working, although it is clear Russia is remains unnerved by the “Great Game” and is willing to pressure Israel by backing up Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces on the Golan border.

What About the Kurds?

Kurdistan as it is known by all Kurdish people across the middle east is spread across northern Syria, Iraq, southern Turkey, and western Iran. Turkey’s main challenge is to dissuade the Kurds from working directly with Russia. If they are not able to, then Russia will have  a fifth column of 10 million strong disenfranchised Kurds inside Turkey to use as leverage if needed.

Right now, barring a severe flare up in Israel’s northern border the “Great Game” of the middle east is in its early phases.  Geo-political maneuvering is still fresh and fluid.  Russia may opt to play neutral in the burgeoning alliance system and let Iran and Syria go it alone.  Russia may also be able to convince Israel to remain neutral as well in exchange for security promises.  No matter the outcome, this “Great Game” will not take 100 years like the last one as America’s pull back has shuffled the deck and wrought chaos on what was already considered a chaotic region.

Can Bibi Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin Save Kurdistan from the new Sultan of Turkey?

Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.

All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan.  Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?

 

None of this should be a surprise.  Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years.  True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions.  Erdogan will  attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.

 

There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.  Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan.  Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds.  With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.

 

How Can they Do This?

The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message.  Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas.  Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.

If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Masoud Barzani: Kurdistan is ripe for independence

“The strong forces drew the borders, but now they are essentially destroyed and the time has come that this current reality has to be admitted and accepted,” Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani said yesterday.  “We should admit that the concept of citizenship did not come forth, and the borders have no meaning anymore. It means Sykes-Picot is over.” The Kurdish leader also added: “Kurdistan is ripe for independence.”

After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the Sykes-Picot agreement redrew the borders of the Middle East 100 years ago.   The borders the French and British drew had more to do with their interests than any relevancy to natural tribal boundaries.  Similarly to Africa, the colonial powers often times forced bitter enemies or culturally competitive societies to live together. By doing this, they created conflicts still unresolved today. It also allowed for Arabists to push migration of disenfranchised Arabs into the Mandate of Palestine as well as traditional Kurdish lands.  This artificially created an Arab presence in these areas, where historically it was very small.

Sykes-picot[1]

With Western strength receding in the region, indigenous peoples, like the Kurds, Jews, and Druze are beginning to push back on the artificial boundaries placed on their traditional lands.  Barzani’s statement is a serious step in truly creating a new Middle Eastern order.