Tag: Golan Heights

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BREAKING NEWS: First Direct Battle Between Israel and ISIS on the Golan

In what is being billed as the first direct clash between Israel and ISIS, the Shuhada al-Yarmouk organization, which has pledged allegiance to ISIS, lost a number of fighters after exchanging fire with the IDF. The terror organization fired on IDF soldiers and after an exchange of gunfire, Israel’s airforce destroyed the gunman’s vehicle, killing all of the assailants.

The escalation, although minor in scope presents the first time affiliates of ISIS entered into a direct confrontation with Israel.  Either this was a trial balloon or the collapsing caliphate has decided to open a front against Israel. Given the fact that it is strethced thin due to increasing Russian bombardments and Srian government forces pushing back its fighters, it would be strange that it would want to waste fighters on a much more formidable Israeli arm.

Then again, Israel is a perfect target to distract from ISIS’s weakening position. By attacking Israel it may be able to rally the Sunni street to its side.

One senior officer stated: “We don’t know all the outcomes of the event. There is great probability there are four dead and the heavy machine gun was destroyed. The terrorists are from Shuhada al-Yarmouk, with all the significance that organization’s name carries. The Israeli forces didn’t lie in ambush by chance.”

The Israeli government wasted no time showcasing the incident and the army’s response.

Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu said, “I want to commend our soldiers who pushed back against the attack carried out against us. We are prepared against any enemy that threatens us on our northern border, and do not give ISIS a foothold for their war in Syria.”

Will Shuhada al-Yarmouk attack again? Was this is a test ballon? It is too early to give a clear answer to these questions. However, one thing is for sure, ISIS is not going to sit back and be destroyed nor will it be wished away as if it is the bogey man. Sooner or later as Syria continues to sprial out of control, Israel will have to root out and defeat ISIS with or without intenational help.

 

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WAR DRUMS: Is a Golan Clash Imminent?

What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today.  In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days.  A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.

Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed.  Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.

Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?

Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual.  Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.

Already Out of Putin’s Hands

There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian.  Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.

Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border.  Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention.  As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted.  Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.

In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?

 

 

 

 

 

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Hezbollah Drone Maybe a Harbringer for Renewed Fighting with Israel

The collective wisdom is that Hezbollah is too caught up with supporting the Assad government’s fight against ISIS to attack Israel, but Hezbollah’s penetration of Israel’s airspace in the Golan yesterday using a drone, may be an indication that things are about to change.

The IDF fired two Patriots at the drone and missed their target.  The drone made it back to its origin in Syria.  For Hezbollah, drones are a perfect form of both psychological warfare and reconnaissance. The important question is whether this is more of the same from Hezbollah or should Israel be prepared for renewed combat against Hezbollah.

In the last year the area West of the Golan has been the scene of warfare between Jihadist like Al-Nusra or ISIS and Hezbollah and Syrian Government Forces. There have been stray shells that penetrated the Golan and other incidents, but Hezbollah until recently has stayed focused on extraditing the Assad regime from the grips collapse.

The ramifications of renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel could be wide. The IDF will have to contend with Iranian troops as well as the Syrian army which is looking to raise morale. Fighting the “Zionists” is an excellent way to do that. The real unknown is Russia’s reaction.  Putin has taken a liking to Israel and wants it within his sphere of influence, yet is fully aware that he has supported Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria in their fight against ISIS.  At some point Putin will have to make a decision on which party to support for the long term. Renewed combat between Israel and Hezbollah will bring that decision to the forefront.