Tag: Erdogan

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SYRIAN CRISIS: Why Did the Syrian Kurds Just Forfeit Shengal to the Syrian Regime?

In a strange turn of events the Syrian regime has been allowed to move in and out of Shengal with permission of the Syrian Kurdish Militia (YPG).  The YPG is being funded and supported by the Trump administration and makes up the majority of the Western backed SDF, which is leading the battle on Raqqa.

Have the Syrian Kurds backstabbed the American coalition? The answer is no.

My sources in Northern Syria give two possible explanations for the seemingly about face of the Syrian Kurdish militias.

The first possibility involves the consolidation of YPG controlled territory  West of the Euphrates.  Where as East of the Euphrates is now undeniably Kurdish, the Western part is still in dispute.  The YPG is making a calculation to build up their holdings using American backing, while regrouping to take the rest.

The second possibility is related to the announcement by the Turkish military has announced a build up of its armed forces in the Kilis triangle right near Shengal.  It is clear Erdogan means to use the triangle area to advance against the Kurdish positions in the area in order to crush the YPG West of the Euphrates. Erdogan recently said as much when he stated the following on his official Twitter account:

“I am calling on the whole world. We will never allow setting up of a [Kurdish] state in northern Syria no matter what the cost may be.”

Given this situation the YPG has had to capitulate to allowing Syrian Regime forces and Hezbollah move freely in and out of the Shengal area.

A further complication is the upcoming G-20 Summit where rumor has it that Trump and Putin will meet to find a way to tamp down the proxy war now underway in Syria.

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Are the Kurds of Syria about to be Cornered by Turkey and Russia?

Enemies make great friends when interests converge.

Turkey has announced the imminent launch of a serious military operation in the Afrin district of Northern Syria to wipe out the Kurdish militias in the area.

Pro Syrian news sources have reported that Turkish backed Free Syrian Army rebels have defected to the Syrian regime army to fight the Kurds. Although it is hard to tell if this is an isolated event, the fact that Turkey inked a deal to buy the Russia S-400 anti-aircraft system shows how the once formidable ememies have come together against a common foe, the US and its Sunni Arab Alliance.

The Kurds have long played both sides, but recently the Trump administration have gone out of its way to court the Syrian Kurdish militas (YPG) and merged them with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  The combination of moderate Syrian Arabs with elite Kurdish militias have proved pivotal in fighting the Islamic State.

With the coopting of the Northern wing of the FSA, which as opposed to its Southern wing is highly staffed by Turkish elements, the Kurds will have to contend with an Erdogan emboldened by Russian backing and a rebel force that is willing to fight to death to drive the Kurds back from their positions.

Israel and America Must Take a Stand

With the Kurdish army in Syria on the line, Israel and America must take a stand and stop the coming Turkish onlaught from decimating the one fighting force that has proven successful against Jihadist and stablizing for a post Assad Syria. If the Kurds fall in the North it will be another setback for America, Israel, and their Sunni Arab allies. Worst of all it would be just one more of a long list of American let downs in helping the truly indigenous Kurds finally reclaim their ancient homeland.

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Kurdistan Rising as ISIS Falls Apart

No matter whose propaganda one believes on the nature of ISIS’s demise, the wannabe caliphate is falling apart. With its collapse, their capital in Raqqa is under siege by the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is dominated by the powerful YPG Syrian Kurdish militia allied with Syrian Arabs. The YPG’s forces are rapidly taking control of much of Northern Syria and moving to link directly with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.

This entire scenario is of course the opposite outcome that Turkey wanted when they unleashed ISIS into Syria and Iraq to start with.  Turkey wanted ISIS to create chaos so Turkish forces could go in and not only clean up the radical Islamists, but wipe out the burgeoning Kurdish entity in Iraq.  Not only has the KRG grown in strength, but the Syrian Kurds have become the main power broker in Syria.

With the US funding and training the YPG militias, Turkey has grown increasingly incensed with the Trump administration. Not only will a defacto Kurdish State arise along its Southern border, this state will essentially be backed by the US. Erdogan, the Turkish president has long opposed any Kurdish entity due to the inspiration it will give to the Kurds in Turkey, who form 10% of the Turkish population and a solid block in the country’s Southern regions.

The US appears aware of the inevitability of an independent Kurdistan.

It was reported in the news last week that the Director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Vincent Stewart told senators during a hearing that the question of independence for the Kurdistan Region is to be expected.

“Kurdish independence is on a trajectory where it is probably not if but when. And it will complicate the situation unless there’s an agreement in Baghdad,” Lt. Gen. Stewart said last Tuesday.

As Kurdistan continues to rise to fill the void left by the ravages of ISIS, a new conflict is about to begin.  Turkey will not sit idly by and allow the very people they have oppressed for generations rise up against them.  The Trump administration will have to choose between a pseudo ally in Turkey or rectify past sell outs of the Kurds committed by both George Bushes and Bill Clinton by allowing a free Kurdistan to solidify its control over its ancient homeland.

United Kurdistan (Image source: Ferhates/Wiki)

 

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Trump Administration Working with Putin to Protect the Kurds, is Kurdistan Coming?

Of all the spinoff conflicts connected to the Syrian Civil War and the fight to destory ISIS, the Turkish offensive to wipe out the growing strength of the Kurdish militia in Northern Syria is the most important.

Despite claims to the contrary, Erdogan helped fund ISIS in its early days in order to create enough chaos to further his interests in spreading Turkish power into Northern Iraq and Syria.  He both allowed ISIS fighters to travel from Turkey into Syria and provided the same fighters medical attention when necessary.

When stories of Turkish aid convoys reached the news, Erdogan pivoted and joined the fight to “destroy the group.” Turkey then used their offensives into Syria to achieve three objectives: show the world it is not in collusion with ISIS, stand up to Russia, and most importantly destroy the nascent Kurdistan.

Kurdistan factors heavily into Trump and Putin’s post ISIS Syria and Iraq.  The Kurdish Peshmerga has been the only force that has showed the ability to defeat ISIS. As long as Turkey stayed out of Syria, the Kurdish YPG could continue gaining ground.

The Battle of Manbij Will Prove Pivotal

Manbij is a Kurdish controlled town  just 40km from the Turkish border and this week it has provided the setting for what will no doubt prove to be the beginning of an independent Kurdistan. With Turkey deciding to push out the Kurds who have controlled the town, the Trump administration took the opportunity to team up with Russia in order to thwart Erdogan’s plans.

Bloomberg reports:

A U.S. deployment and a Russian-brokered deal with Syrian forces created buffer zones that headed off any Turkish campaign against the Kurdish forces who hold the town — seen by Washington as key allies against Islamic State and by Turkey as terrorists.

Once again Erdogan’s plans of dominating the Kurds have faltered.  With Russia and the US working together Turkey is forced to deal with the reality that the Kurds are here to stay.

Is Kurdistan Next?

Although rumors of an independent Kurdistan have risen higher in the years since ISIS came to power, the reality of the rumors have never been more actual than now. Kurdistan offers the ability to right an historic injustice by creating a state for the Kurds who have been stateless for centuries.  In fact, it is the Kurds who are indigenous to the area, going as far back as the ancient Medes. An independent Kurdistan would create stability in the Middle East and act as a buffer to the madness of the Arab tribes to the South and Turkish regional aspirations from the North.

Furthermore an independent Kurdistan would quickly become an ally of Israel in its fight against radical Islam.

Will Trump and Putin make it happen?  So far their cooperation in relation to Manbij makes the prospect likely.

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TERROR IN ISTANBUL: Is Turkey Safe Anymore?

Last night’s terror attack at an Istanbul night club is only the latest terror attack against Turkey. With 35 dead from the attack on New Years eve, the 45 killed in Ataturk airport last month, and a failed coup, it has become apparent that Turkey is increasingly growing unstable. Erdogan would like us to believe he has everything under control, but the pressures growing against his rule from within as well as pressures pushing against him from Russia and infuriated NATO members, his rule is growing far more unstable than previously believed.

In the Istanbul attack, CNN Turk reported the two attackers were dressed in Santa costumes. Some witnesses claimed they were speaking Arabic (not Turkish).

“Unfortunately, at least 35 of our citizens lost their lives. One was a police officer. Forty people are receiving treatment in hospitals,” Istanbul governor Vasip Sahin told reporters, according to the AFP news agency. “What happened today is a terror attack.”

Playing with ISIS is Like Playing with Fire

With Turkey working with Russia to shut down the Syrian war, ISIS (its once loyal proxy) is now turning on Erdogan and his government.  When Erdogan opened the flood gates into northern Syria for ISIS to cross in order to destabilize the country, he never imagined Russia coming into the war.  The plan was always for Erdogan to insert Turkey into Syria and Iraq as the great stabilizer.  He won this role from Obama and NATO.

The Russian intervention has caused Turkey to pull back its support of ISIS and other Jihadist groups and make peace with Putin.  This of course makes Erdogan into an apostate as far as ISIS is concerned and makes anything in Turkey a target for Jihadists.

Kurdish Rebellion in the Works

Russia has a very real interest in making sure Erdogan stays on the defensive.  One gives time for Syria to finish reasserting its sovereignty throughout its country and second Turkey has less reason to interfere with Russian aspirations in the region, including northern Iraq and the eastern Mediterranean.  Putin always works in two spheres of influence.  One is overt, like we saw in Crimea and Syria.  The other is a page ripped from the KGB cold War playbook and that is covertly funding and inspiring revolution.  This we see in the Donbass region of the Ukraine.  We are about to see it in southern Turkey, which has a solid Kurdish population itching for freedom.

Russia’s interests in the region intersect with Kurdish aspirations.  It’s only a matter of time until Turkey feels these aspirations in a far more serious way.

Whether its ISIS, Russia, or Kurdish Independence, Erdogan’s Turkey is a country which is no longer safe or secure.