Tag: China

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Edging Towards WW3

Now that the Putin backed United Russia party secured a clear majority in the Russian Duma, Putin can begin to tackle the challenges growing on Russia’s western front mainly the Ukraine. The EU backed government in Kiev has been in an on and off war between the break away pro-Russian regions of the Donbass.  Russia sees these regions as a natural part of its territory.

With the EU move towards a united EU army to offset the crumbling NATO alliance, Putin views the EU as a direct threat to his territorial ambitions.  This is essentially why Putin has been on the move both westward and in the Middle East.  The Russians, like other former empires view their territorial reach in the past as a goal to get to in the future. For Russia that is all the way to Germany as well as rehabilitation of direct influence in the Middle East.

Eurasian Union as a threat to the Neo Conservative Agenda

Russia’s goal of uniting formerly Soviet states under the rubric of  Russian controlled economic sphere has already rattled the nerves of Western leaders.  However, Russia’s growing cooperation with China puts both  NATO and other Western powers on the defensive.  This is essentially what NATO is doing by deploying troops and fomenting regime change in the Ukraine and Syria.

With the two developing powers of Russia and China essentially agreeing to work together to roll back the post Cold-War world order, the leadership in America, Britain, and Brussels are throwing down the gauntlet in Ukraine.  This is where things will get dicey.

 Trump a Game Changer

Up until now both Western leaders and their Russian and Chinese counterparts were willing to play along with the 21st century Big Game, but the impending Trump victory due to Clinton’s collapse (both figuratively and literally) changes the calculus of Western leaders.  Trump has made his admiration and willingness to work with Putin public. If the Donald wins, world politics as we know it bound to change and this is what makes the Neo-Conservative agenda drivers nervous.

In the coming weeks look for a October surprise in Eastern Ukraine as Washington and the EU interject themselves into the conflict in order to head off any rapprochement with Russia. These sorts of actions replayed not only in Eastern Europe but in the South China Sea as well, will directly affect the pace and thrust of war between NATO, Russia, and China.

The world is about to be set ablaze by a crumbling order that made its money off the outcome of World War 2 and the Cold War.  Putin understands the West is frantic and yet this chaos that is swirling provides him with little maneuvering room going forward. From here on out until inauguration day, expect increased volatility as WW3 closes in.

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BREAKING NEWS: North Korea Fires 3 Ballistic Missiles at Japan

North Korea Ballistic Missiles

The South Korean military reported that North Korea fired three Rodong-type midrange missiles just after midday. The missiles landed in the Sea of Japan after reaching  about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles).

The missile launch comes on the back of the G-20 summit in Beijing, China. South Korea has pleaded with China to drop its opposition to a US backed missile defense shield.  The North Korean bravado has made the shield seem far more necessary. As China continues to rise in global stature, most indications are that their opposition will stay.

Despite China’s opposition, South Korea is committed to deploying the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, missile defense system by the end of 2017.

The Iran Link

It has been known by observers for years that a secret pact between Iran and North Korea allows both to continue development separately and yet merge success together.  It is clear that while Iran has pushed forward with its nuclear program, the North Koreans have worked hard at perfect ballistic missiles.  Now that Iran has begun to see itself normalized within a broader international framework, continued cooperation between the Iranians and North Koreans is assured.

This cooperation not only endangers the South Koreans, but Israel as well. With neither the Iranians or North Koreans prevented from building weapons of mass destruction, both sides can work together in sowing destruction on their enemies.

 

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WAR DRUMS: Is Obama Provoking a War with China?

As China continues to build up a military presence on their man-made islands in the South China sea, the Obama administration has decided to move over some heavy equipment of its own. The US military will be bolstering its presence and running patrols from five US bases in the Philippines in order to block against Chinese expansionist moves.

In July, the National Interest reported on the Obama Administration’s policy towards the South China Sea:

“Beijing’s moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the region—one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. This alignment will further U.S. goals: to continue to mount a forward defense, to keep the seas and skies free, and to promote prosperity and the spread of democracy.”

The idea that the USA is doing this for world prosperity is laughable.  The USA government is there because it knows it needs to check China now before it becomes an unstoppable force and dangerous to Washington’s interest.

Looking at the map below, one gets a quick understanding of what a complicated and dangerous situation Obama’s brazenness has made it.

South_China_Sea_claims_map[1]

Whether one agrees with Beijing’s Island building campaign or not, the US military’s insertion into an east Asian dispute automatically makes the situation into one which is always one trigger away from war. The Chinese argument, whether agreed upon or not by the players in the region is that China used to control the South China Sea.  Yes, its true this was centuries ago. However, the Western world has constantly been hamstrung in terms of policies in relation to countries or civilizations that have a concept of time that goes farther back than theirs.

Using the international arbitration case against China further provokes animosity.  Afterall, whose world order is it? If we assume the world order and security structure post World War Two is now in free fall, what does it matter if the UN stands against China in regard to a dispute that is older than the USA itself?

The faster the Obama administration takes into consideration that the world is actually a very different place, it will pull itself back from the brink of triggering the next global conflagration.

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WAR DRUMS: China and Russia Play War Games in the South China Sea

New joint military drills are planned between China and Russia for September to take place in the South China Sea. The involvement of Russia and location are seen as a message to America in the waning months of the Obama administration. The South China Sea is an area of serious dispute between China and its neighbors.  The Obama administration has pledged to stand against Chinese aggression. With Putin on the move in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the Russian involvement is a worrying development.

The tension in the area stems from a recent international court ruling that China has no historic claim to the region. The Russians have backed Beijing up on their stance in opposition tot he ruling.

“This is a routine exercise between the two armed forces, aimed at strengthening the developing China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership,” China’s defense ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said.

Although the West views such exercises as a provocation and preparation for war, especially under heightened tensions, the two emerging super powers have held similar drills last year in the Mediterranean and Sea of Japan.

From China’s perspective it is the USA that is beating the drums of war by infringing on their historic rights in the South China Sea.  With China rising and Russia close behind, the USA has far less leverage than it had in the past.

Where Does Israel Stand?

Israel has taken a neutral approach on everything to do with the tug of war between the USA and China.  With Israel’s bilateral relationship growing at an exponential rate with China, any shred of non neutrality on the South China Sea and other issues between the Chinese and Americans, could endanger Israel’s new and positive relationship with Beijing.

 

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Trump, Israel, and the Need to Navigate the Global Chaos

Whether one likes Donald Trump or not, everyone agrees he has forever changed the landscape of American politics. The Donald’s scorched earth policy on his adversaries has not only worked to ensure he becomes the Republican nominee, it has upended the political and donor class of the US two party system.

No amount of will or force will be enough to give Americans what they crave.  The world has changed.

Americans have more or less opted to back a candidate who “will get things done,” rather than pay homage to the constitution and the framers’ vision of an exceptional nation.  The rest of the world has for many years seen things this way, yet for the US it has clung to a notion that it was different and special.  In truth, with spiraling debt, a waning military influence, and a generation of distracted spoiled youth, America may have in fact seen its best days behind it.  Of course this is what many out there, outside the beltway and big cities fear and this is exactly the type of fear Donald Trump draws his energy from.

No amount of will or force will be enough to give Americans what they crave.  The world has changed. The emerging economies of the East and Africa, coupled with innovation engines like Israel are changing the global dynamics overnight. It’s true Americans need a President that will get things done, but the Donald’s notion that one just needs to be a good manager and force a populist agenda will increase the chaotic downward spiral that American’s feel they are in.

 

Trump Ensures that Israel will Pivot Away from America

With Obama’s flip flopping on everything to do with foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Middle East, Israel has increasingly turned elsewhere for new partnerships.  Israel has grown closer to India and China as well as the Eastern African countries like Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Rwanda. Relations are growing with a host of Eastern European countries as well as former Soviet Block nations like Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

Israelis crave stability and the last few years has put a monkey wrench in their country’s desire to carve a stable environment for their economy and populace to thrive.  Obama’s weak foreign policy has thrashed old paradigms, while creating a host of new challenges.  Trump’s chaos is too much for many Israeli leaders and his ascendancy may well drive Israel further towards China and even Russia. In an environment with increased instability, the Israeli government finds itself in an unenviable position in having to decide on putting stock into an America in decline versus positioning itself as the most reliable country in the Middle East with a neutral foreign policy.

Trump’s rhetoric, although welcome by many in Israel after eight years of a post American foreign policy approach by Obama, is far too erratic and unbalanced to be trusted to force a re-calibration of America’s interests.  More likely it will help entrench those very forces Israel is now dealing with.

 

Surviving the Coming Chaos Requires a New Paradigm in Partnership Building

Whether we like it or not, the world seems bent on heading into a period of tremendous chaos and instability. Trump’s ascendancy is only part of the reason for this. Other reasons include increased technology usage in developing nations, Islamic fundamentalism, a rising East, an imminent EU collapse, as well as others.

The situation does not have to be dire. Israel needs to continue to build reliable partnerships with countries like India, China, and Kenya.

If we create a partnership between Israel’s inventive capability and China’s manufacturing capability, we will have a winning combination.

Increasing trade ties between China and Israel have now led to discussion concerning a free trade agreement. Already back in 2013 Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Israel is not as big as China. We have eight million residents, approximately one-third the population of Shanghai. But we manufacture more intellectual property than any other country in the world in relation to its size. If we create a partnership between Israel’s inventive capability and China’s manufacturing capability, we will have a winning combination.”

Israel is seen by many in Sub Saharan Africa as a reliable military and trading partner, with budding relationships mimicking the same trajectory that occurred between Israel and India over a decade ago.

The government will have to figure out what to do about Russia.  They are not going away and Putin may be the best suited to help Israel put pressure on Hezbollah and Iran. Whether it is Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, Israel’s traditional geopolitical and economic relationships are permanently resetting. These newer partnerships Israel has been cultivating become an important part of creating a far more stable world order.