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HAS THE WAR BEGUN OR ENDED: Iran Attacks and Israel Destroys Dozens of Military Targets in Response

by Gavriel Dan
written by Gavriel Dan

There is a calm jubilation this morning in the IDF/IAF staff over what they are calling a successful response to the 20 Iranian missiles fired by the Al Quds force into Israeli positions on the Golan Heights.

 

This morning the IDF and Defense Minister Liberman relayed the same message of success in the overnight defensive retaliation.

“The Iranians tried to attack the sovereign territory of Israel,” Liberman said. “Not one Iranian rocket landed in the State of Israel. Nobody was hurt. Nothing was damaged. And we’re to be thankful for that. We damaged nearly all of the Iranian infrastructure in Syria.”

The IDF was quoted as saying that the “Overnight raids set back Iranian military in Syria by ‘many months’.”

 

 

An illustrative map showing the general locations of Israeli strikes in Syria in response to a presumed Iranian attack on the Golan Heights on May 10, 2018. (Israel Defense Forces)

Is this the End or Beginning of the Iran-Israel War?

The statements by the IDF and the Defense Minister appear to indicate that the IAF gave the Iranians a severe blow to their presence in Syria. While this appears to be true, there are some indications that the early success of Israel’s attacks against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria may be just a precursor to a larger struggle. Iran is no Iraq or Jordan.  They were fully aware that the IDF was prepared to go all out to stop them.  Most likely many of their positions were arrayed to learn and understand the capabilities of the IAF.

One also has to keep in mind that these attacks are without Hezbollah’s involvement.  The vaunted IRGC is considered formidable, but it has only just begun its control over Syria’s southwestern territory, while Hezbollah is prepared and ready for war with Israel.

Given President Trump’s warnings to Iran not to restart their program, it is fair to assume, the skirmishes we have been witnessing are just the beginning of a protracted conflict.

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IRAN ON THE MARCH: Trump’s Kurdistan Folly Directly Impacts Israel

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

The going line coming from Washington over the the joint operation carried out by the Iranian Al Quds Force, Hashd Al-Shaab, and of course the Iraqi Army against Kirkuk, a Kurdish majority city is that this was a minor border disagreement between the Federal authority in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government sitting in Erbil.

The repeated line that there was little fighting is simply not accurate. Our sources on the ground have reported intense fighting with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Al Quds Force against factions connected to the Kurds.

Already the Kurdish Peshmerga is withdrawing further North and have withdrawn from cities South of Erbil.

No mention of major Iranian inovolvement can be heard from the Pentagon’s lips. This allowance of major Iranian military movement into Kirkuk and if the Iraqi PM can be believed into the capital of the KRG itself Erbil, then the Trump administration can be rightly seen as a paper tiger , willing to scream and threaten Iran without putting its foot down when the moment arrives to do so.

If the Iran-Iraq army is allowed to use American weapons at will and essentially wreck havoc in the most stable area of what is left of Iraq, then how can the White House be believed on the rest of its commitments in the region.

How Does this Affect Israel?

Israel is dealing with the realization that it is fast becoming surrounded by a Russian protected Shiite alliance made up of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.  Kurdistan’s stability and friendliness to Israel has been known both behind scenes and in recent years out in the open.

The lack of responce by the administration as well as nuanced statements backing the false notion of Federalism within an already divided Iraq essentially provides Iran with the motivation to continue to move to control the region and ultimately threaten Israel, without fear of US response.

President Trump is now seen as weak by the Shiites who are taking advantage of an administration that is more worried about its bark than its bite.

Israel now knows it cannot rely on comments alone from the administration when it comes to stopping Iran, but must demand concrete actions. By allowing the lightening quick occupation of Kirkuk by Iran-Iraq, Trump unknowlingly has set the stage for the very unravelling of his new Iran policy.

The President and his team can still rectify the situation by demanding the Iraqi army hand over all American equipment it is using in breach of its agreement with the US military.  If Baghdad resists, the US military would be justified in bombing the tanks and humvees in the assaults on the Kurds. Furthermore, the US can still now provide air support to enable the Kurdish Peshmerga to even the odds against the Iran-Iraq army.

The longer the President and the Administration in Washington ignores the situation, the faster Iran will move to create an irreversible control over the entire region, which will ultimately isolate Israel.

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BordersRegional Analysis

Israel Surrounded as Iran Attempts to Divide Kurds Ahead of Independence

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Sources close to us have confirmed that Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Al Qud’s Force is currently paying a visit to the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, Iraq.  The purpose of the visit is to force Masoud Barzani to call off the referendum for Kurdish independence scheduled for September 25th.

Although a calm atmosphere and warm words are expected to be exchanged Barzani would not be able to call off the vote even if he wanted to.  The Kurds of Iraq are prepared to vote overwhelmingly for independence.  Furthermore, Iran like Turkey is scared that this vote will give a strong signal to Kurdish areas in their own countries to begin pushing for their own autonomy if not independence altogether.

Given this, Suleimani has a secondary goal should Barzani not bow to Iran’s threats and that is to create a division between the Iraqi Kurdish leadership and those Iranian Kurdish groups stationed in the Eastern part of the KRG whose aim is to help win autonomy for the 15 million Kurds in North West Iran.

Once again General Suleimani will receive assurances, but these will in fact be empty leaving Iran no choice but to go head to head with the Iranian Kurds post September 25th.

In fact, a large Iranian armed force is already positioned within the Iranian Kurdish region in preparation for decimating the indigenous Kurds who live there.

Iran Seeks to Stop Kurdistan While Preparing to Invade Israel

The issues of an independent Kurdistan and Israel are intertwined in the minds of Iran.  The Iranian regime views Kurdistan as a forward base for what they call the “Zionist Entity.” Breaking a free Kurdistan is key to rolling back a direct threat to their regime in order to have full focus on Israel’s Golan and Galil.  Already, Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria have moved troops into position under Russian protection.

For Israel, who already has defense pacts with Azerbaijan, a free Kurdistan would push back on Iran’s aggressive stance and give Jerusalem a counterbalance.  Knowing that the friendship between Israel and the Kurds goes far back, Iran is now pushing in the extreme to stop Erbil’s plans towards a free and independent Kurdistan.

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