After 49 Years, Israel and Guinea Renew Diplomatic Ties

Israel, represented by Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director General Dr. Dore Gold, and the Republic of Guinea (Guinea-Conakry), represented by Chief of Staff of the Guinean Presidency Mr. Ibrahim Khalil Kaba, signed an agreement renewing diplomatic ties between the two nations.

The two countries have not had diplomatic ties for almost 49 years, following the Six-Day War in 1967. Though Guinea is a country with a Muslim majority, it kept a close friendship with Israel throughout the years. Israel played a major part in the international effort to eradicate the Ebola virus that also struck Guinea. This may have fostered this initiative to strengthen ties between the two countries.

“Israel is ready to share its experience and abilities for the good of Guinea’s development needs in a wide range of areas, such as agriculture, water management and homeland security,” stated Director Gold.

This development came soon after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from a trip to Africa where he visited a number of countries to strengthen and upgrade the political, economic and security ties with Africa. A few months ago, Israel’s Knesset also launched the Africa Caucus where Netanyahu exclaimed: “Israel is coming back to Africa; Africa is coming back to Israel.”

In essence, Israel truly is part of a broader African dynamic.

Turkish Unrest Threatens Oil Shipments From Key Israeli Partners

Turkey is more than just the second strongest NATO member besides the USA.  It is one of the world’s largest crude hubs.  With three pipelines running through the country and the Turkish straits made up of the Dardanelles, the Sea of Marmara, and the Bosphorus, millions of barrels of oil transverse Turkey daily.  

To get an idea about the effect of the failed coup had on oil prices, crude futures rose 1.5 percent on Friday as the news of the coup became public.  Oil prices have settled back down to $44 a barrel from $46 on the July 18th, but the continued counter-purge and growing friction between Erdogan and the other NATO members now cements and ongoing risk for oil shipping.

As of today, shipping has remained normal, but this can change quickly depending on how the events unfold.

“Any uncertainty in that region almost invariably results in an increase in oil prices, particularly given the interaction between what goes on in Turkey with Syria,” Craig Pirrong, director of the Global Energy Management Institute at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business, said Friday in a phone interview with GCaptain. “Analysts will be looking for whether there’s a “spillover to the major oil producers,” Pirrong continued.

Ceyhan is Key

Ceyhan, a city of 157 thousand in Southern Turkey is the terminus for three oil pipelines that run through Turkey.  It is also the destination point to and from the Turkish Straits for oil tankers. Although the unrest seems to be dying down, any future turmoil in Turkey or the border region with Syria has the potential of affecting this point.  If Erdogan goes after the Kurds in southern Turkey and Northern Syria, Ceyhan becomes the prime target of Kurdish counter attacks.

However, there is one thing that protects Ceyhan from potential Kurdish retaliatory attacks, and that is it too is being used by the Kurds of Iraq to ship their oil out below the radar by way of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. One of the biggest recipients of Kurdish oil is none other than Israel, which is why Israel’s interest in renewed diplomatic relations with Turkey has become key to ensuring Kurdish oil flows to Israel.  

Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline
Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline

The Ceyhan-Iran Connection

Israel has gone out of its way to empower and build overt and covert relationships with regional players in order to block Iran’s drive westward.  The Kurds have always been a moderating and strong force in northern Iraq and have helped with degrading ISIS as well as helping to block Iran.  

Another regional partner of Israel is Azerbaijan.  The country is both a nemesis of Iran and sits on the strategic Caspian sea.  The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline stretches 1,768 kilometres (1,099 mi) bringing oil from Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli in the Caspian sea to shipping routes in the Mediterranean Sea. The oil field produces 710,000 barrels a day.  Although it is lower than its peak of 810,000 daily barrels it is still vital for Azerbaijan.

Baku-Tliblisi-Ceyhan Pipeline
Baku-Tliblisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Israel has a strategic interest in making sure Ceyhan is untouched and the free flow of oil from both of its allies reach their destination.

Turkey Coup: The Coming NATO Civil War

As the counter coup continues to rage, Erdogan is gaining more and more power by the day.  The dream of a resurgent Ottoman Empire is not just a fantasy anymore.  Whether the coup was a false flag event or a poorly executed attempt orchestrated by Fetullah Gulen, Erdogan’s nemesis, the counter coup is already changing the dynamic of Turkey and its relationship with NATO.

“The President pledged any needed assistance to the Turkish government as they conduct an investigation to determine exactly what happened,” Josh Earnest, White House spokesman told reporters.

Although the statement appears to be positive, the following caveat on the investigation holds within it a powerful message and hint to where things will go.  Earnest continued with the following: “[Obama] believes that investigation should be conducted consistent with the democratic principles that are enshrined in Turkey’s constitution.”

What is clear, is that Erdogan is ignoring Turkey’s constitution.  He has arrested and purged thousands.  He has shut down opposition media and is on his way to becoming the 21st century sultan redux.  

The Obama administration knows this.  Despite Obama’s early bromance with Erdogan, he and his advisors have grown to despise his continued power grabs and meddling in the Middle East.  The challenge for the West is that Turkey is no pushover, they have the second largest military in NATO, second only to the USA.  

Erdogan has been using NATO as cover throughout his tenure, knowing that eventually he would either leave or be jettisoned out of the alliance.  The problem is that NATO needs Turkey far more than Turkey need NATO right now.  NATO membership was always a moderating force on Turkey’s actions.  Whether or not Turkey formally leaves, from here on out Erdogan will not take NATO membership into consideration as he moves to rebuild the lost Ottoman empire.  At its peak it reached from Greece to Iraq. Erdogan won’t get it all back, but he will try to uncover areas that are weak and if successful he will push on.

Ottoman Empire
Boundaries of the Ottoman Empire in 1795

At one point and time NATO will have to stop their east most neighbor member.  The conflict will be fought through economics and proxies, but it will be fought.  Afterall, Erdogan is a believer and is determined to see his dreams through. Ironically the schism in NATO reminds one of the last time Europe split into two, between the Western and Roman Empires.  History repeats itself, sometimes in the most brutal ways.

 

Europe is Not Israel

(Originally published on Israel Hayom)

“France must live with terrorism,” French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said after the massive terrorist ‎attack in Nice last week. Understandably, his statement infuriated the French, who took to social ‎media to express their opprobrium.‎

And French President Francois Hollande, sounding almost as if he was being forced to speak, said, “We cannot deny that it was a terrorist ‎attack.”‎

After the massive Islamic State attacks in Paris in November 2015, political leaders proclaimed ‎themselves “shocked.” Whether this shock was feigned or genuine, at least they made a point, pitiful ‎as it was, of pretending that these massive terrorist attacks were something extraordinary that did not ‎have a habitual place in Europe.

Valls’ resigned declaration of tired surrender after the Nice attack, on the other hand, ‎amounts to the waving of a white flag in submission to the jihadis and is an indication that France ‎has little will to fight.‎

Valls and Hollande sounded like bewildered children at the helm of a ship that they are too ‎clueless to navigate. Imagine Winston Churchill declaring, “Britain must live with ‎Nazism.” ‎

Under its current government, France has busied itself with meddling in Israeli affairs ‎and organizing Middle East peace conferences, instead of spending every waking moment ensuring ‎the proper protection of its own population. It is not ready to fight against the jihad that has been ‎launched against it.

One major factor in this is that its elites blame France.‎ French Ambassador to the U.S. Gerard Araud, for example, wrote on Twitter: “Why is France ‎targeted? History (former colonial power), geography (proximity), first Muslim community of Arab ‎origin sensitive to M.E. issues.”‎

In other words: Colonialism and Middle Eastern “issues” — a diplomatic euphemism for the Israeli-Arab conflict — ‎are to blame, not the Muslims who commit the atrocities and certainly not Islam. A ‎Twitter user from India responded to Araud: “We Indians have been colonized by all European powers ‎including your country. Ever heard of Indian terrorists? Shame on you.” Indeed.‎

One of the best indicators of how massive terrorist attacks have become the “new normal” is the financial markets, famously and hysterically sensitive as they are. One ‎observer concluded after the Nice attack, “Gold is down and the euro is up. Financial markets ‎don’t care because it’s no longer an extraordinary event. Even European travel stocks and French hotel ‎stocks are only down a couple of percent. Because continued terror attacks for years are already ‘priced ‎in.’ According to the stock market, France has now become Israel.”‎

The sentiment that France and Europe have “now become Israel” has become something of a trend on ‎social media in the wake of Nice. But it is very far from the truth.‎

Europe is a dying continent, one that is walking toward its own cultural suicide with eyes wide shut. ‎In Europe, self-loathing began to gain ground over most traditional Judeo-Christian ‎values as long as a century ago. We see the results of that long process today: Official Europe does not ‎believe in anything. The main European project in recent history has as its goal only a vague ‎multiculturalism and the working toward “an ever closer union,” a self-referential and self-serving ‎empty shell of a vision. Ostensibly, the EU was meant to prevent future wars in Europe, but while ‎Europe has lost its taste for war, war — now in jihad style — has not lost interest in ‎Europe. The problem is that Europe cannot fight jihadis — people who believe so strongly in their ‎cause that they will die for it — if it believes in nothing, least of all the legitimacy of its own fight against ‎them. This will not change, regardless how many reservist forces France now calls up to help ‎protect the country. The fight becomes especially tricky, tragicomically so, when it is fought while ‎intensely fearing the causing of any offence.‎

In contrast, Israel is a vibrant place of almost endless faith. Not just in the traditional and religious ‎sense but a general and secular faith in the worth and the future of the country pervades Israeli ‎society. Israel believes in itself and is more than willing to fight for itself, and this belief manifests itself in ‎myriad ways, not only in its military prowess and in the countless innovations for which it has become ‎so famous, but in its celebrations of its Jewish past, present and future at every given ‎opportunity. It is also evident in the high birth rate in the country, while Europeans are not having enough children to maintain their own populations.

Israel may be located in a neighborhood that is full of enemies and terrorists, but Israel is also ‎committed to dealing with those security issues, whatever it takes. Israel is here to stay, ‎and Israelis are determined to keep it that way, never even contemplating resigning themselves to whatever ‎malignant plans others may have in store for them.‎

No, Europe is not Israel. Not even close.

Is Washington Finally Getting Fed Up With Turkey?

What started out like a budding relationship between Obama and Erdogan, has now gone way beyond simple agitation.  The coup in Turkey may have put the final nail in the coffin for what was supposed to be an American backed drive to rule the Middle East.

Early in Obama’s tenure, he believed that Turkey could become the lynchpin to US policy in the region.  That was 7.5 years ago.  Today’s relation is fraying at the seams and with months to go before Obama’s departure, the tightening of Erdogan’s rule following the “coup” may push it over the cliff.

Erdogan has essentially used the failed coup to purge the government and country of non-loyal forces.  Although the USA supports a stable and strong Turkey, Erdogan using it as leverage to strike back at opponents is worrisome to the Obama administration. “We will certainly support bringing the perpetrators of the coup to justice, but we also caution against a reach that goes well beyond that,” Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday. “We also firmly urge the government of Turkey to maintain calm and stability throughout the country, and we also urge the government of Turkey to uphold higher standards of respect for the nation’s democratic institutions and the rule of law.”

With Turkey getting the cold shoulder from the United States and of course near isolation by Russia, this puts it in a very difficult position with little or no wiggle room.  This is what makes Bibi’s continued acceptance of the Israel Turkish reconciliation deal so strange. Why would Israel want to throw Erdogan a life vest?

“Israel and Turkey recently agreed on a reconciliation process between them. We assume that this process will continue without any connection to the dramatic events in Turkey over the weekend.” Bibi Netanyahu said yesterday.

The question for Israel is, how long will it wait to jump onboard the anti-Erdogan bandwagon? Afterall, if Obama and Putin can agree on the need to corner Erdogan, it pays to pivot alongside them rather than being left the only one still committed to some irrelevant deal.