Category: Borders

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Turkey’s Erdogan Warns Syrian Kurdistan: “We Are Preparing For War”

The Kurdish held area of Afrin in North West Syria is under imminent threat of Turkish invasion as the Turkish armed forces are amassing on the border.  With the Russian army pulling back from the area, many see this as a tacit approval for Turkey’s invasion.

Rudow reported if Turkey attacks Afrin, “Turkey will be plunged into a swamp, politically and militarily – there will be an historical resistance against Turkish occupation in Afrin and Shahba regions,” Mehmud Berxwedan, commander of Kurdish YPG forces in Afrin, told Voice of America’s Kurdish radio service on Friday.

Syrian Kurdistan is comprised of three autonomous cantons along the Turkish border. The further strengthening of these areas is a development that Ankara fears may lead to the emergence of an autonomous or independent Kurdish entity along its border and spark a legitimate secession movement for its own nearly 20 million Kurds.

While Kurds are the traditional indigenous people of the area, spanning across Turkey, North Syria, Northern Iraq, and Western Iran, Turkey’s President Erdogan called them terrorists.

Turkey’s deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus told Reuters on Wednesday that Turkish military preparations in northwest Syria are “legitimate measures against a threat from Kurdish forces in the Afrin region, and Turkey will retaliate against any hostile move.” He added in an interview that “This is not a declaration of war. We are making preparations against potential threats” adding that “It’s … a legitimate measure so that we can protect our independence. We cannot remain silent against those sending missiles from Afrin.”

An attack on Afrin wil seemingly destablize the entire region and would threaten to draw the wider American back SDF and Iraqi KRG into the conflict.  Will Afrin start a wider regional war?  That is up to Erdogan and Turkey’s ability to reign in their appetite for expansion. If Erdogan does go in, the Trump administration will have to decide to openly turn against another NATO member on behalf of the Kurds or back stab the Kurdish people like previous administrations.

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TWO FRONT WAR: Iran is Sharing ICBM Technology with North Korea

Donald Trump issued the following Tweet in reaction to this morning’s North Korean ICBM launch that had the potential to hit Alaska.

Despite the bravado, the Tweets do not hide the utter shock in North Korea’s ability to make serious advancements in its ICBM program.  Today’s test was supposed to be a year away.  This puts pressure on the Trump administration to respond accordingly.

Yet, how did the situation reach this point?  Disregarding the last 17 years of foolish attempts at convincing North Korea to stop, the last several months has seen their program has grown considerably.

Iran is Developing North Korea’s ICBM Technology

The partnership built around missile development and nuclear technology between Iran and North Korea has only grown stronger since the Obama administration reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

North Korea tests missiles then sells the know how to Iran who in turn tests and improves the missile and then sends the updated specs back to North Korea.  This is the explanation of how the Kim Jong Un regime has reached impressive levels of missile capability is disconcerning and means that the Trump administration is essentiall fighting a two front war. It also means that the North Korean and Iranian issue are ver intertwined.

Israel Defense Analyst Tal Inbar wrote in May:

“The ‘accuracy revolution’ is a process we see in many countries’ rockets and missile forces,” Inbar wrote. “North Korea’s close ally, Iran, which bought the technical know-how on ballistic missiles from North Korea, introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles with a forward section containing a set of movable fins and guidance equipment.”

Taking on One Means Taking on Two

Micha Gefen reported in April about the interconnection of the two programs.

“It has been known for some time that Iranian missile technology was developed in North Korea.  Both regimes see the USA as their number one enemy and have worked together to build a situation where they would pose a serious threat to the USA. To most observers North Korea and Iran are in constant coordination as can be seen from last week’s ballistic missile test in Ira, which followed North Korea’s launch of four missiles near Japan.

Researchers from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies published a research paper (.pdf) in January 2016 outlining Iran’s past and present military dealings with North Korea, concluding that “the signs of military and scientific cooperation between Iran and North Korea suggest that Pyongyang could have been involved in Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile program, and that state-run trading companies may have assisted in critical aspects of Iran’s illicit nuclear-related activities.””

If America and its allies want to deal with North Korea, the Iranian advance accross Syria and its threat to the Israeli Golan must be taken into consideration.

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SYRIAN CRISIS: Why Did the Syrian Kurds Just Forfeit Shengal to the Syrian Regime?

In a strange turn of events the Syrian regime has been allowed to move in and out of Shengal with permission of the Syrian Kurdish Militia (YPG).  The YPG is being funded and supported by the Trump administration and makes up the majority of the Western backed SDF, which is leading the battle on Raqqa.

Have the Syrian Kurds backstabbed the American coalition? The answer is no.

My sources in Northern Syria give two possible explanations for the seemingly about face of the Syrian Kurdish militias.

The first possibility involves the consolidation of YPG controlled territory  West of the Euphrates.  Where as East of the Euphrates is now undeniably Kurdish, the Western part is still in dispute.  The YPG is making a calculation to build up their holdings using American backing, while regrouping to take the rest.

The second possibility is related to the announcement by the Turkish military has announced a build up of its armed forces in the Kilis triangle right near Shengal.  It is clear Erdogan means to use the triangle area to advance against the Kurdish positions in the area in order to crush the YPG West of the Euphrates. Erdogan recently said as much when he stated the following on his official Twitter account:

“I am calling on the whole world. We will never allow setting up of a [Kurdish] state in northern Syria no matter what the cost may be.”

Given this situation the YPG has had to capitulate to allowing Syrian Regime forces and Hezbollah move freely in and out of the Shengal area.

A further complication is the upcoming G-20 Summit where rumor has it that Trump and Putin will meet to find a way to tamp down the proxy war now underway in Syria.

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BREAKING: Renewed Battle in the Golan Demilitarized Zone Between Rebels and the Syrian Regime

Syrian sources are reporting that the battle for Al-Baath city, which lies in the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria has been renewed.  So far the rebels that were pushed out of the strategic city last week, have yet to regain a foothold in Al-Baath, which is in the Quneitra province.

The sources indicate that Israeli jet fighters have launched supportive attacks against the regime forces in the area. The airstrikes struck regime army positions inflicting heavy losses both in personnel and military equipment to the regime.

Al-Baath City is strategic due to its location within the UNDOF zone.  Its control by the Syrian regime essentially puts Iran within striking distance of the Golan.

Prime Minister Netanyahu stated last week in Katzrin:

“We are here celebrating the fortieth anniversary of Katzrin, the capital of the Golan Heights. I said that we will not tolerate spillover and that we will respond to every firing. During my speech, shells from the Syrian side landed in our territory, and the IDF has already struck back. Whoever attacks us – we will attack him. This is our policy and we will continue with it.”

If the FSA is unable to retake Al-Baath, even with Israeli air support, Israel will be forced to either reconcile with an emboldened Iran on their border or enter the fray directly to hold them back.

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Are the Kurds of Syria about to be Cornered by Turkey and Russia?

Enemies make great friends when interests converge.

Turkey has announced the imminent launch of a serious military operation in the Afrin district of Northern Syria to wipe out the Kurdish militias in the area.

Pro Syrian news sources have reported that Turkish backed Free Syrian Army rebels have defected to the Syrian regime army to fight the Kurds. Although it is hard to tell if this is an isolated event, the fact that Turkey inked a deal to buy the Russia S-400 anti-aircraft system shows how the once formidable ememies have come together against a common foe, the US and its Sunni Arab Alliance.

The Kurds have long played both sides, but recently the Trump administration have gone out of its way to court the Syrian Kurdish militas (YPG) and merged them with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  The combination of moderate Syrian Arabs with elite Kurdish militias have proved pivotal in fighting the Islamic State.

With the coopting of the Northern wing of the FSA, which as opposed to its Southern wing is highly staffed by Turkish elements, the Kurds will have to contend with an Erdogan emboldened by Russian backing and a rebel force that is willing to fight to death to drive the Kurds back from their positions.

Israel and America Must Take a Stand

With the Kurdish army in Syria on the line, Israel and America must take a stand and stop the coming Turkish onlaught from decimating the one fighting force that has proven successful against Jihadist and stablizing for a post Assad Syria. If the Kurds fall in the North it will be another setback for America, Israel, and their Sunni Arab allies. Worst of all it would be just one more of a long list of American let downs in helping the truly indigenous Kurds finally reclaim their ancient homeland.