With latest Ceasefire, Syrian Army Creeps Towards the Jordanian and Israeli Borders

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_btn title=”FOR $5/MONTH YOU CAN SUPPORT ORIT’S WRITING” color=”warning” size=”lg” align=”center” button_block=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paypal.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebscr%3Fcmd%3D_s-xclick%26hosted_button_id%3DPBTQ2JVPQ3WJ2|||”][vc_column_text]The Syrian Central Command announced a cessation hostilities in Daraa that went into effect at 12pm on Saturday.  The ceasefire is to last 48 hours.  This last freeze in fighting comes just after a massive offensive by the Syrian army backed by the Lebanese Hezbollah and Russia which resulted in multiple civilian deaths.

With Daraa nearly back in government hands, quiet conversations are beginning in order to allow Syrian soldiers to once again patrol the Jordanian border.  If this agreement goes through, the Syrian government’s control of the region East and South of Daraa would be cemented.

 

Syrian Golan Still Not In Assad’s Hands

With ISIS and Israeli supported rebels in tacit control of the Al-Qunaitra area and American special forces holding the Al-Tanf border crossing in Eastern Syria, the government’s control of the Daraa area was seen as vital in allowing Assad and Putin to push further East and win back more Syrian land. The Damascus-Daraa highway splits the two rebel areas in two, preventing them from strengthening their presence.  This makes Israel’s role far more important in providing aid to the Free Syrian Army and various other militias close to its borders. They  are the last shield against a complete Syrian and Iranian control of the Golan border area.

Meanwhile, news reports out of Syria have pointed to the YPG (Syrian Kurdish Army) being redeployed to Al-Tanf border crossing in Southern Syria to be used against Iranian militias and Syrian government troops.

“A security source confirmed that the Syrian Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) are expected to send forces to the Syrian al-Tanf area near the Iraqi border, in a bid to stop the advance of the Iranian-backed militia forces to the area,” Bas News claimed.

If the YPG is being moved to Southern Syria, an uptick in direct fighting against government backed troops and militias supported by the USA should be expected in the next few days.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Why Did Bibi Netanyahu Agree to Build 14,000 New Homes for PA Arabs on Israeli Land?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_btn title=”FOR $5/MONTH YOU CAN SUPPORT ORIT’S WRITING” color=”primary” size=”lg” align=”center” button_block=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paypal.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebscr%3Fcmd%3D_s-xclick%26hosted_button_id%3DPBTQ2JVPQ3WJ2|||”][vc_column_text]Last night it was announced that Netanyahu approved 14,000 new housing units for 50,000 Arab residents of Qalqiliya for construction in Area C, which is under full Israeli responsibility.

News reports add that the construction would double the size of the city, located in Area A at the expense of land in Area C which was intended for Israeli development. Doubling the size of Qalqiliya, which sits on the green line 9 km from the Mediterranean is a dangerous development.

The announcement drew immediate criticism from Netanyahu’s right leaning ministers, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked:

“We objected to the plan called ‘carrot and stick,’ which was and remains a program of reward for terror and the promotion of the Palestinian takeover of Area C. There is no doubt that the plan’s meaning is stringent against the very limited scope of construction approved by the prime minister for Israeli settlements.”

“The Israeli government must promote Israeli interests in Judea and Samaria, not those of the Palestinians. In light of these implications, we will demand a freeze on the plan until the cabinet can discuss it or marketing of 14,000 housing units for Israelis in Area C [is carried out to balance the Arab building plan],” the two said.

 

Today reaction was just a serious from Bibi Netanyahu’s own party.  Tourism Minister Yariv Levin said the following:

“The PA continues to incite to terror and harm the security of Israeli civilians. The PA systematically disregards all of its obligations, therefore it is right that the decision to expand Qalqilya be reassessed, as the damage inherent in the plan is great.”

 

With all of the push back from vital members of the Prime Minister coalition and essentially those that have their ears to the base of the right, why did Netanyahu approve the building, which would radically change the balance between Arab and Jewish areas in Judea and Samaria?

The Trump Peace Initiative Takes Shape

All the moves we are seeing whether they are the Saudis freezing out Qatar, to the PA coordinating with Israel to shut down Hamas are intending to create the atmosphere where Israelis would feel comfortable enough to sit down with the Arab world to negotiate. Trump’s team does not want to repeat the same mistakes as the past. A regional initiative where Israelis and Arabs learn to rely on each other against Iran’s drive for regional control is there to provide a back drop for the next phase, the contours of a Palestinian state.

So what are the contours of this future Palestine under the Trump initiative?

Let’s assume both sides begin talking and agree to the following:

  • Demilitarized Palestine
  • Jewish communities stay even outside the blocks
  • Israel annexes settlement blocks

With these three elements agreed upon the complicated questions of security control, Jerusalem, and refugees will then come into play.  By this time the Sunni Arab States and Israel will have some sort of normalized relationships.  Direct flights, trade relations, and what not.  Trump’s plan rests on the fact that Israel craving this normalization will make the requisite concessions for the Arabs to sign on to making peace or the Arabs needing Israel’s help against Iran, will concede elements to Israel.  There is a logic to all of this except that neither side views this as a real estate deal and so unless one of the sides capitulates completely the process will break down.  Unfortunately, by then Israel will have lost Area C and perhaps more.

The real question is why the Trump administration has not entertained another plan altogether? Why has it insisted on the same old Arabist approach with just different semantics associated with it?

Why has the Prime Minister agreed to build so many houses rather than just telling President Trump, no?

There are a number of possibilities:

  1. He believes the process will break down and so he can freeze them.
  2. He needs a new foil and will allow his right flank to stop the plan, which is a strategy he employed numerous times with Obama.
  3. He really wants to build more Arab homes.

Any of the above could be the answer. With Bibi you never know and that is the challenge.  We are being led down a path where no one except the Prime Minister knows the end game.

The problem with the “peace process” itself is that it is being built by people with little or no understanding of the complex issues Israel and its neighbors deal with. It’s true, the Arabs are being herded towards making peace, but it is Israel that will end up sacrificing the most whether or not Trump lands the ultimate deal or it fails along the way.

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How Serious is the Emerging Alliance Between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus?

The answer to the above is… very serious.  I wrote the following over a year ago in my article: Israel is Moving Beyond Turkey:

The alliance stands to quickly change the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical reality, providing a sense of stability in a region engulfed by radical Islamic chaos. The burgeoning partnership is a testament to Israel’s increased standing in the World, despite the claims of isolation due to a lack of movement in the “peace process.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu is departing today to meet with the leaders of both Greece and Cyprus in Thessaloniki, Greece, for the third G2G meeting and for the third trilateral summit between the leaders of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus.

According to reports agreements are expected to include tripartite cooperation in the fields of energy, communications, environmental protection, innovation and scientific research and development.

The emerging East Mediterranean Alliance not only strengthens Israel, but changes the geo-political reality in Europe as the EU continues to collapse.  Already Israelis find it easy and affordable to travel to Greece and Cyprus for vacation.  In terms of joint military and energy exploration, the three countries are suited to work together to create stability in the face of Middle Eastern chaos. The alliance offers Greece and Cyprus an alternative to the centralized power held by the EU in Brussels.

As world alliances begin to shift away from the post cold-war model, rising economic and technological power like Israel have begun to provide regional stability. So are we seeing an emergence of a new trading zone? Don’t be surprised.

 

Qatar Crisis Puts Hamas on the Ropes as Israel Cuts Electricity to Gaza

In the latest twists and turns in the unfolding Sunni crisis with Qatar, Israel has been drawn into the Saudi stand-off with its fellow Gulf country by way of cutting the Gaza Strip’s electricity to only two hours a day. In coordination with PA president Mahmoud Abbas, the Israeli security cabinet has further reduced electricity to the Hamas run strip.  Qatar has been Hamas’ foremost backer. One of the points the Saudis have required Qatar to follow through on in order to lift their blockade is for Qatar to break off ties to the terror group.

With Abbas and Israel coordinating against Hamas, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt tighten the screws on Qatar, the potential for war is increasing daily.  Abbas has cut off payments to PA workers in the Gaza Strip as well as pulling back on transferring vitals to Gaza Strip residents.

Hamas has responded with the following statement feeding fears of an open conflict:

“The decision of the occupation to reduce the electricity to Gaza at the request of PA President Mahmoud Abbas is catastrophic and dangerous. It will accelerate the deterioration and explode the situation in the Strip,” said Hamas spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanua. “Those who will bear the consequences of this decision are the Israeli enemy, who is besieging the Gaza Strip, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.”

What is most surprising about Israel’s move to cut Gaza’s electricity is the amount of coordination between Egypt, Israel, and the PA to ensure that Israel can follow through with the electricity reduction.  The Qatar crisis has given the emerging Sunni-Israel alliance its first opportunity to test their ability to work together despite not reaching a coveted peace agreement.

Regional Peace First

The coordination between the Sunni alliance and Israel has been unprecedented. It sets the stage for Trump’s path to peace, which is to arrive at a regional deal before Israel and the Palestinians reach an improbable agreement on final status issues. This puts both the Gaza front and the Qatar blockade into focus as a real test to to Israel-Sunni coordination against common regional adversaries like organized terror groups and Iran.

 

IRAN ON THE MOVE: Mullahs Send Warships to Oman, Food to Qatar

The Iranian based Tasnim news agency reported that Iran is sending two warships, an Alborz destroyer and a Bushehr logistics warship to Oman on Sunday.  They will depart from the port city of Bandar Abbas. The move comes as tensions continue to rise between much of the Sunni Arab world and Qatar. The report says that the ships will continue from Oman to the Gulf of Aden, near Yemen.

Iran is continuing to step up its help to Qatar by flying food items to the isolated country.

“Following the sanctions … on Qatar, IranAir has so far transported food and vegetables to this country by four flights,” Shahrokh Noushabadi, head of public relations at Iran’s national airline, was quoted as saying by Fars news agency.

Iran has been sending over 100 tons of food per day since the sanctions took effect.

Qatar only has one land route and that is through Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it sits completely inside the territorial waters of Saudi Arabia, which means it is completely reliant on the Saudis for imports unless they are made by air.

Will Yemen Heat Back Up?

Although out of the news. The Yemen war, which pits Saudi backed government forces against the Iranian backed Houthis has largely been ignored by the world media.  With Iran on the move again, will their retaliation against Saudi Arabia  be in Yemen? Seemingly Iran has the ability to increase its military adventures in a few areas. One would be against Israel through its proxy Hezbollah and the other is certainly Yemen.

With Iran openly backing the Qataris against Saudi Arabia, the region is quickly moving to war and increased chaos. The challenge for the world community is that this war is taking place in two of the most important shipping lanes, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Any expanded war has the potential to affect shipping as well as spill over into a Sunni/Shiite wide conflict.

Iran has made its move. Are the Saudis ready to invade Qatar?