President Trump’s announcement last week that the USA and the Houthis in Yemen had reached a ceasefire had a strong ripple effect throughout the region. Most clearly was the sense that Israel had been left alone to face this threat by themselves. While this may appear to have been the case, the fact is the Israelis tend to operate far better when they are acting alone.
Operation Rough Rider, the campaign that saw the USA bomb Houthi targets for just under two months did not reduce the amount of ballistic missiles fired at Israel. Nor did the operation take out any high ranking Houthis leaders. Until this day, it is not clear what target packages the Americans were going after. Then, after a Houthi missile nearly hit Ben Gurion Airport, Israel launched a long range mission two nights in a row.
The first night on May 5th, Israeli aircraft destroyed the Port of Hodeidah and concrete factories nearby. The Port of Hodeidah is a key port in Yemen under Houthi control and a major transfer point for Iranian weapons. The concrete factories had been in use partly for ballistic missile construction.
The second night on May 6th, Israel destroyed Yemen’s International Airpot Sanaa, the capital of the Houthi controlled area.
It was after the second night of strikes that the Houthis cut a deal with the Trump administration. Ending nearly two months of American attacks. The Houthis have now been free to focus there energies on Israel.
There is only one problem in that strategy. The Houthis are assuming that Israel won’t do what the USA never did and seemed to shy away from doing. Let’s face it, the USA never wanted to spend so much money taking on the Houthi threat. Sources claim Operation Rough Rider cost nearly $2 Billion with mixed results. Oppositely, Israel’s two nights of clear successes is the type of thing that the Trump administration likes and was hoping its own military could have done. Israel’s hits have been far more effective at a far less cost.
WAR CONTINUES:
Already tonight, Israel is warning civilians to leave the following Houthi controlled ports in Yemen: Ras Isa Port, Hodeidah Port, and Al-Salif Port. Another long range mission appears to be at hand.
Israel’s strategy vis-a-vi the Houthis is clear – take out the official terminals that Iran has been using to rearm the Houthis and eventually the Houthis, like Hamas will begin to run out of supplies and weapons. Obviously, Iran can still use the deserts of Oman as an overland route or transfer weapons to the Sunni radical group Al Shabab in Somalia who then uses fisher boats to carry the arms across the Gulf of Aden to the Houthis, but both of these are far harder to transfer ballistic missile parts and have traditionally been used for smaller arms.
Israel may not be able to fundamentally take out the Houthis, but by cutting out their ability to rapidly rearm, the Saudis may decide to finish them off once Trump cuts the deal to sell the Kingdom billions of dollars worth of military supplies. True, the Salafis that the Saudis support may not love Israel, but they won’t wreck havoc on shipping the way the Iranian backed Houthis do.
At the end of the day, the USA is in the middle of a phased pull back from the Middle East and it sees two hubs developing to keep the area stable for it. The first is Israel and the second is Saudi Arabia. The fear that normalization has been taken off the table is sort of a red herring as Israel can work with Saudi Arabia without making the sort of concessions the Kingdom wants. Both are comfortable with the current situation and the UAE’s role as the glue that ties them together.
There will be rhetoric about some sort of Palestinian State on Trump’s visit, but unless Trump is ready to fire most of his cabinet, these sorts of statements from Saudi Arabia are meant to placate its radicalized street.
None of this, obviously takes into account Trump’s connections to Qatar and the fact that Saudi Arabia is far more antagonistic towards the Qataris than the Israelis, but Trump’s team aside from Steve Witcoff seem to understand the difference between the two. This is ultimately why Hamas has suddenly decided to release Idan Alexander, a dual Israeli-American. With Trump visiting Qatar this week, the Emir wants to show the Trump administration that it is he that holds the key to regional stability – not Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
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