The Truth Behind Russian Airspace Violations

With tensions rising around the region on an almost daily basis, it was reported in the Israeli news that Russians have violated Israeli airspace in order to pound rebel positions in the Eastern Golan Heights occupied by Syria.  This space is high up and is buttressed by the Golan Heights to the West and Jabal al Druze (Druze Mountain) to the East.

The fact is there have been these infractions, but when it comes down to it, the IAF (Israel Air Force) has largely ignored them. If infringing on another’s airspace is so outside the international norm then is Israel just plain weak, or is the Obama and Erdogan’s reasoning flawed?

Infractions on Airspace Sovereignty Have been Increasing

A NATO report released this past June showed an alarming increase in the rate of airspace infractions between 2014 and 2015.  NATO claims 85% of the infractions are from Russian aircraft. Russia for its part says the NATO report is vague and inconclusive.

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The data seems to indicate that Russian violations, while still the majority, have lowered this year. While the proof is not in the number of infractions posed by another country, the question really is the legality of these infractions coupled with the fact that Russia seems to share the border with some very nasty locations.

 

Air Traffic Control Is Not Connected to Sovereignty

While Turkey certainly has what to be angry about in relation to a Russian violation of its airspace, the claim by the Obama administration and Turkey that the Russian fighter jet was shot out of the sky to protect Turkish sovereignty is erroneous.  Below is the executive summary of the International Civil Aviation Organization from March 2013. The key point is bolded at the end.

“Under the Convention on International Civil Aviation (the Chicago Convention), each State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory. While national sovereignty cannot be delegated, the responsibility for the provision of air traffic services can be delegated. And, we are reminded by Assembly Resolution A37-15 (see Appendix) that a State which delegates to another State the responsibility for providing air traffic services within airspace over its territory does so without derogation of its sovereignty.”

To critics who say that Turkey was just defending itself, the flight path clearly does not indicate a situation where the SU-24 fighter jet was intending to attack Turkey.

 

Turkey Is A Culprit, Just Ask Greece

While Turkey seems keen on painting its actions behind the veil of innocence, Turkey has been a repeated violator of Greece.  According to Statista, Turkey violated Greek airspace 2,244 times in 2014.  Of course this is nothing new, back in 2005 Greece complained of Turkey’s infractions on its airspace to the tune of 40 times a day. Then again none of this was stated in NATO’s report since Greece and Turkey are NATO members. Let’s put it another way, Turkey out did Russia on airspace infractions by 5 times the amount in 2014.

 

The Meaning Behind Israel’s Announcement

All of the above begs the question on why Israel announced or better yet leaked to the press that Russia has flown over its airspace to attack rebel and ISIS positions. Pay attention to the fact that Israel released this information the same week PM Bibi Netanyahu announced that Israel is breaking ties with European institutions over the product labeling fiasco. Bibi’s moves seem to indicate that a pivot is underway.  Both announcements are saying that Israel is no longer bound by the strategic decisions of the EU and NATO Alliance.  Where is Israel pivoting to?  Your guess is as good as mine, but whomever the leadership decides to ally themselves with next, the key component is a realization that the first ally is the Almighty above.

The Israel Kurdistan Connection

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When Bibi Netanyahu stated in June of 2014 that the Kurds “are a fighting people that has proved its political commitment, political moderation, and deserves political independence,” it surprised very few observers.  Israeli Kurdish relations have been the quiet success story of the ever growing chaotic and war-torn middle east.  The Kurds have enjoyed defacto sovereignty over Northern Iraq ever since the days of George W. Bush’s misguided adventures in state building, but nevertheless, one of the brightest points that came out of that foray is the burgeoning autonomous region of Kurdistan. Of course this is to the chagrin of Turkey and Syria (whatever is left of it), but nevertheless the Kurds are prospering despite the challenges of being a non-state actor pressed by all sides (Turkey in the North, ISIS to the South and West, and Iran to the East).

For Israel’s part, it has become clear that a stable Middle East, if there is a chance for one, revolves around the Kurds finding their long elusive independence.  Besides a civic society, independence requires economic and military capabilities to ensure survival.  This is where Israel has provided covert but necessary help.

Oil Revenues Driving Kurdish Economy

It is no secret that Northern Iraq is flush with crude oil.  This would make the autonomous Kurdish region a potentially wealthy area.  The challenge for the Kurds has been to get their oil out to the market outside of the framework of the Iraqi federal government.  An agreement was reached between the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) and the Iraqi Federal government in December of last year, which would have seen 17% of the national oil revenues go to the KRG in return for a ban on selling their oil outside the national framework. The agreement fell through shortly after that and the Kurdish Regional Government once again began to sell their oil on the black market.

The flow of Kurdish oil to the world takes an interesting direction and with it some unusual partners. The Times of Israel quotes a report in FT this past August that Israel uses a Maltese shipping company to transfer Kurdish oil from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.  The total amount purchased was 19 million barrels of Kurdish oil, worth roughly $1 billion, between May and August of this year. This would support 77% of Israel’s total energy needs. Of course the oil seems to go from Israel to markets around the World.

Given the fact that the Turks and Kurds are mortal enemies this appears to be strange.  The Kurds deny this, but the evidence from the shipping routes is clear.  Israel has become the middleman for Kurdish oil.  Of course one reason that the Turks might be looking the other way is that their newly uncovered ISIS allies are also using the avenue to get their oil out to market. Despite fierce battles between the Kurdish Peshmerga and ISIS, when it comes to oil and money, the guns are put away.

The Kurds, with Israeli help, have built a thriving oil economy.

Peshmerga is an IDF Trained Army

It is known that in the 1960’s and 1970’s the IDF worked covertly to train the Kurdish Peshmerga to fight the Iraqi government. As recently as 2010, it seems that the Israeli government had sent officials to the KRG to help train their fighters. Since 2003 the Israeli government has been exporting weapons and other military supplies to the Kurdish region and, although no official recognition of this relationship exists, it is a known fact to both governments as well the Europeans and the USA.

Why Kurdistan?

The Israeli Kurdish relationship is complex and yet should be seen in a broader regional context.  Outside the Arabs, four other immediate indigenous players exist in the Middle East: Israelis (Jews), Arameans (Marionite Christians), Druze, and the Kurds.  Before the Arab expansionism after the Mohammed’s death, these four groups made up the indigenous groups outside the Arabian peninsula (Jews actually had independent kingdoms in Yemen and Arabia).

Traditionally for Israel, there is a natural affinity, almost brotherly between these four groups. Israel’s increased strength means that there is a potential to reset the balance to what it was before the Islamic push occurred. An independent Kurdistan would go a long way to not only restoring a sense of justice to the region, but it would bring a much needed stable player in a chaotic area of the world.

Russia on the Move

Ever since Turkey shot down the Russian SU-24 fighter jet last week, Russia has increased its push into controlling Syria. It has become apparent to most analysts that the Russians have laid off the Syrian Kurdish army and have focused on decimating the rebel allies of the Turkish government.  It is not a huge stretch to figure out who Putin would most likely want to befriend next.  Let me just say Turkey will not be so amused.

Jihad and the Darkside

Shai and I discuss the current security changes in Judea and Samaria.  At the heart of the security situation is the fact that the government is not ready to fight Jihad at its core and that is with expelling those who are pushing violence.

We also cover the growing clash between Turkey and Russia and its broader context within the global arena and the conflict’s spiritual roots.

Don’t forget to check out this podcast’s sponsor: Root Source

The Last War

In today’s podcast we cover what I call the Last War.  Yesterday’s and today’s news headlines are rife with speculation that Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet changed the nature of the Syrian conflict.  It brings the regional and factional struggle to a new phase and will begin to destabilize not only Syria to a far more dangerous situation, but has ramifications for Israel and the entire world. This war has the potential to clear the deck so to speak.

We also interview David Ha’Ivri about his take on the security situation and what he feels needs to be done with many of the violent Arab terrorists and their supporters.