Iran, North Korea, and the Fast Approaching End Game

Two events  in the past week have now reshaped world events and the geo-political landscape for the forseeble future. The first was the Iranian launch of an advanced satellite-carrying rocket that experts believe is cover for the Islamic Republic’s long-range ballistic missile program.

The other was the second ICBM launch on Friday, carried out by the North Korean regime.  This ICBM flew 3,724km before crashing into the Sea of Japan.  Most experts concur with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s statement that, “The test confirmed that all the US mainland is within striking range.”

Trump had been banking on a year or two to convince the Chinese that they would have no choice but to reign in North Korea.  That has gone bust.

 

The long term game is over, as well as the parallel track with Iran.  There too Trump’s assumption was that Russia, if given certain “carrots” could be enticed to push back against the Ayatollah’s. The satelite launch ended that as well.

With Russia on Israel’s doorstep and Iran preparing for Middle Eastern hegemony, Trump can ill-afford to wait in order to build a coherent foreign policy.

No More White House Distractions

The firing of Reince Priebus and the appointment of General Kelly as his replacement as the new White House Chief of Staff has deep implications on America’s foreign policy.  The Trump White House could ill-afford to have the leaks continue during such a sensitive time where crucial decisions involving a two front war would have to be made. General Kelly also brings serious military experience to the White House, setting the stage for flipping the Trump administration to a war presidency.

The Israel Factor

With the Syrian war turning into an existential crisis for Israel, Jerusalem is waiting for the USA to put together a comprehensive strategy in dealing with these two interconnected threats. Given the fact that Syria appears to be the testing ground where Iranian and North Korean know-how are actually merged together on the battlefield, Israel will be called on to alleviate the burden put on America if and when an actual war would break out.

 

The Growing Intersection Between Turkey, Trump, Kurdistan, and the Golan

The publication by Turkey of more than 200 US bases and places of presence across Western Kurdistan, now occupied by Syria drew the ire of the Trump administration and the US Defense establishment. The Turkish government went ahead and published this list and map in protest of the US policy in supporting the growing autonomy of Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), which runs along the border of Turkey in Northern Syria.

“The discussion of specific troop numbers and locations would provide sensitive tactical information to the enemy which could endanger Coalition and partner forces,” wrote Col. Joe Scrocca, coalition director of public affairs.

“Publishing this type of information would be professionally irresponsible and we respectively [sic] request that you refrain from disseminating any information that would put Coalition lives in jeopardy.”

Turkey views the rise of an independent Kurdistan as a non-starter, unless it is contained to the KRG in Northern Iraq.  What is taking shape now though are two autnomous areas, which if joined would inspire Kurds living in Northern Kurdistan, occupied today by Turkey, to fight vigorously for their independence.

It is no secret that the US has ben aiding the YPG (Syrian Kurdish militias) and has rolled them into the broader Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but the continued strengthening of this militia has crossed a red line for Erdogan.

Did Trump trade the Southwest of Syria for Western Kurdistan?

Despite the current opposition from Washington to the KRG’s drive towards a referendum on independence, the Trump administration still views the Kurds as the best avenue to push back on Iran and stablize the region. There is a four way tussle for Syria: Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the USA. Some of the sides work together and others don’t, but these four countries are busy establishing zones of control.

Up until the G-20 Ceasefire with Russia, it appeared that the USA and Russia were heading to a direct confrontation in the Southwestern part of Syria.  To offset this, the Russians backed Turkey’s assault on the indigenous Kurds to the North.  Putin hates Erdogan, but was ready to use him to battle Washington. The ceasefire changes things. With relative quiet in the Southwest, Putin can put the brakes on supporting Turkey’s assault against the Kurdish directed SDF.

Trump’s strategy here is clear. Consolodate the US gains in Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), while letting Israel and Russia learn to work together in the Southwest. Trump now has a fighting force in Syria that is not only moderate, but is experienced in pushing back against ISIS and other Sunni radicals. More than that he pins Erdogan down, preventing the neo-Sultan from implementing his goals of expanding Turkey.

This strategy seems to benefit the US, but has been seen as dangerous by Israel due to the partnership between Russia and Iran. Given the propensity for Iran to utilize the Russian army as cover to move in on Israel, the tacit agreement with Russia is dangerous. Iran has already moved into the DMZ East of Israel’s Golan. With Hezbollah contantly infiltrating the Har Dov area in the Northern Golan, a similar presence to the East under the protection of Russian troops appears too much Israel to put up with.

With Hezbollah preparing for war, Israel is fast working to establish a deconfliction policy with Russia in the greater Golan area.

Does Russia Have a Deal With Israel on Quneitra De-escalation?

With Russian forces moving into Quneitra as early as July 16th, the realization that Israel is being cornered by Iranian and Hezbollah contingents has now become apparent.  Local Quneitra community councils welcomed the opportunity to force “militants associated with Zionist entity” to lay down their arms.

Russia is aware that the Netanyahu government is not happy about the ceasefire deal hammered out between Trump and Putin at the G-20 on July 7th.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister had this to say:

“I can guarantee that we have done everything and the US side has done everything to ensure that Israel’s security interests within this framework are taken fully into account.”

There is more to this statement than just acknowledgment.

Former National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror said the following on Monday in relation to the Iranian presence so close to the Golan:

“Israel may need to take military action to prevent Iran or Hezbollah from setting up permanent bases in Syria.” 

This is no accidental comment. Amidror is a close confidant of the Prime Minister and his comment was meant to send a message to the Russians.

The idea that Iran and Hezbollah is setting up permanent bases so close to Israel’s Golan Heights may appear to be a dangerous step for Israel.  The Russian forces that have now entered the region have only complicated the situation. The peril for Israel cannot be overstated.  However, Amidror’s comments contain a hint of possible solution to the menace forming on Israel’s border.

The Russian’s have at times allowed Israel to take out Hezbollah and Iranian arms transfers, with analysts observing that Russia itself tipped off the Israeli airforce to the location of the hidden arms and gave it fly by capabilities to destroy the targets.  If Israel can convince Putin it is far better to let Israel defend itself by destroying Iranian and Hezbollah fighters on its border than making the IDF attack covertly, then a similar relation can develop even within the framework of the current ceasefire.

More than 18 months ago I wrote the following:

Many analysts believe that Russia, in the long-term, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over the Middle East. Russia views its relationship with Iran as a tactical necessity to prop up Assad and destroy Sunni radicals. After this task is done, the experts in this particular camp believe their paths will diverge.  

If this is so, then logic lends itself to believe Putin wants relationships and long term strategic partnerships with countries that are not only stable, but also share similar security and economic outlooks with himself, and yet will not step in his way. Israel is one of these countries.

We are about to see if this theory holds weight.  If Russia does not prevent Iran and Hezbollah from building up their forces on Israel’s border, then Russia either will have to allow the Israeli airforce to neutralize the growing threat or risk losing leverage over Israel.

Putin has spent much of the Syrian Civil War navigating a variety of local interests while cementing Russia’s control over the Northern Levant. The question remains: At what point does Putin jettison his relationship with Iran in favor of a more moderate and stable relationship with far more rational actors?

If Russia truly wants a stable Middle East then we may be about to see the beginning of a Russian-Iranian divergence.

 

WAR FRONT: Iran and North Korea are Building Ballistic Missiles in Syria…Now What?

There have been countless articles written about the intersection between the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, yet if the latest pictures taken by the Syrian opposition is an indication, the extent of the collaboration between the two countries along with the Russian acquiescence to the program should be alarming to everyone.

Published by a Syrian opposition site last week, the following images and information taken in Syria along with a detailed description by a worker at the site show collusion between the North Korean, Iranian, and Syrian governments in building an active ballistic missile factory.

MEMRI translated the July 10th article found on the site, which said the following:

Zamanalwsl.net stated that it had “received exclusive photos of the Assad regime’s scientific research center in the Wadi Jahannam region that is [administratively] in the rural area of Tartus. The new photos support this website’s previous report regarding the center where Bashar [Al-Assad] paid a secret visit that was disguised as a public and documented tour of a visit to several homes [of his supporters] in the rural region of Hama…  

“This is a facility for the development and manufacture of long-range missiles and M600 ballistic missiles – the [latter is] the secret name given by the science center [to these missiles, which are manufactured according to] the model of the Iranian Fateh 110 missile.

“The sources [cited in the report] indicated that the center has a branch in Deir Shamil [in western Hama province] where there is a base of the Fourth Division [of the Syrian army under the command of Maher Al-Assad, brother of Bashar]. [At this branch,] chemicals are produced and stored in the hillside adjacent to an underground roadAccording to the sources, Brig.-Gen. Ghassan Abbas is the director of the branch, under the direct command of Salim Ta’mah, deputy director of the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC). The sources expect that the construction of [the branch of the SSRC] will be finished by year’s end.”

With the Trump administration allowing Russia to take key border areas near Jordan and Israel as part of last week’s ceasefire, the revelation of such a dangerous facility makes the Russia presence a clear danger to Israel.

Can Israel Take Out the Missile Factory?

When Israel took out the Syrian nuclear program that was built by North Korea, the region was very different. Russia had not presence outside of its Latkia base, the US was considered te strongman in the region, and Syria was essenitally a weak actor.

Today’s Syria is a non-existant entity, but Iranian and Russian forces exist througout the war torn country. Not to mention, the Russians have their S-400 anti-aircraft missile system installed in the region, essentially changing the dynamic the Israeli Airforce has to contend with.

This leaves the Trump administration to push back on Russia forcing them to remove the base.  This unlikely for two reasons.  The first is that Trump has been touting the “ceasefire” as a success. Second to that he has made it clear that Russia is a responsible actor and needs to be partnered with in order to bring stability to the region.

If Trump would bring Putin to task on this base, it would be an admittance that Trump’s entire Russia strategy is actually flawed.

North Korean-Iranian Collusion is the Real Story

It has become more and more obvious that the Mullahs in Tehran and North Korea have done more than help eachother out when necessary.  Their active partnership in building weapons of mass destruction is so tight that when talking about taking out one regime, it really means taking out two.  Furthermore, Syria needs to been seen in a far different light by the administration.  True, no one in America wants to see boots on the ground, but this base is a game changer.  Syria is now linked to North Korea, which has made it clear that it intends to nuke America.

The Trump administration, if it is serious about North Korea, must roll back the partnership between Iran, Syria, North Korea, and Russia. If it doesn’t, Israel must be empowered to do it for them.

 

Syrian Regime Continues to Violate Ceasefire, This Time in Quneitra Next to Israel

The Free Syrian Army based East of Israel’s Golan posted the following tweet:

Given the ecstatic jubilation over the “ceasefire deal” brokered between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G20 these sorts of violations that have been growing in the descalation zones have esentially deemed the ceasefire deal to be at the most a PR stunt if not rendered pointless.

With Al-Baath under attack by regime and Iranian forces, which is only 2 km away from Israel’s Golan the infractions are far more serious.

Is the Regime Goading Israel into Attacking?

One possible strategy is for the regime to blame Israel for breaking the ceasefire.  If the regime continues to advance in towards the Israeli border in the Golan, the Israelis would have no choice but to resume attacking regime military targets as they were doing last week.

Any counter-attack by Israel to sure up their FSA allies will run into the growing presence of Russian military police. The ceasefire has essentially be flipped to place US allies in the region on the defensive.  This will continue until the Trump administration is able extricate itself from the already collapsing ceasefire.

BREAKING: Syrian Rebels Shoot Down Regime Plane Near Ceasefire Zone

Reports from rebel forces in Syria indicate they have shot down a regime fighter jet near the Sweida Ceasefire Zone.

“The plane was shot down and crashed in regime-controlled territory. We have no information on the pilot,” said Fares al-Munjed, communications head for the Ahmad al-Abdo Forces, a rebel group which operates in Syria’s southeast.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the plane was shot down.

In further violations of the truce, regime forces have continued to shoot in Daraa.

Will the ceasefire hold? 

Although Russia seems intent on sending military police into the ceasefire areas, by the time they get situated the ceasefire may already be over. From the very beginning the regime and Iran were apprehensive about the ceasefire as the two have been on a roll. With the rebels fighting back, the ceasefire is essentially over.

SYRIAN CEASEFIRE: Russia Now in Charge of Israel’s Border

The G20 meeting between Putin and Trump has already produced some immediate results.  According to reports the two sides agreed to implement a ceasefire for Southwest Syria, along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

“A ceasefire will come into force in that zone (Syria’s south – Daraa and Quneitra) at 12.00 Damascus time on July 9,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The United States has made a commitment that all the groups present there will observe the ceasefire.”

The security in the de-escalation zone in the south of Syria will be ensured by the Russian military police in coordination with the US and Jordan.

“At first, the security around this zone will be ensured with the use of the personnel and resources of the Russian military police,” Lavrov said.

The ceasefire has brought a tenuous relief to Israel as the Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies were marching straight for the Golan. Reports indicate that Iran was brought to in on the deal by Russia who has grown wary of the Iranian army’s involvement in the conflict.

The deal covers the Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida areas of Syria.

Is the Ceasefire Really Good for Israel?

Although there is a feeling of relief in Israel due to the ceasefire, the agreement itself is still not without flaws. Israel has demanded that Russia not be alowed to control the ceasefire zones without US involvement.  More than that the ceasefire does not prevent movements by the Syrian regime or its allies to other parts of the country. This essentially means that the Syrian regime can prepare for the next round.

This puts Daraa and Quneitra under a immediate threat once the ceasfire breaks down as it most probably will.

So why did Trump sign such a precarious deal?  Trump was left with little choice. By not committing to ground troops himself, Trump had to put a stop to Syria/Iran’s move to the Meditereanean or risk a broader war with Israel getting involved. Trump found a willing partner in Russia’s Putin to make it happen.

Now that the deal appears to be going into effect on Sunday, the Trump administration has essentially given Putin what he wants. Israel will have a far more precarious future with Russia in the mix on its border.

The deal essentially puts Russia on the border with Israel. This will make it harder and harder for the Israeli military to strike back if it is hit by Syria or Hezbollah. Israeli sources say that Israel’s government is in intense discussions on the specifics of Russia’s role within the ceasefre zones.

RUSSIAN REDEMPTION: Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein Returns to Russia a Free Man

Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein delivered a historic speech today in Moscow before the Russian Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament. Speaker Edelstein, who was invited for an official visit by Federation Council Chairwoman Valentina Matviyenko, gave the speech 30 years to the day after he served a three-year sentence in a Soviet labor camp for his Zionist activities.

Edelstein opened up with the following statement:

“Thirty-three years ago I was imprisoned here in Moscow by the authorities of the Soviet Union for teaching the Hebrew language. I was imprisoned because I was teaching the language which spread to the world the ideas of rejecting tyranny, upholding the rule of justice, love of mankind and the hopes of freedom; the language in which the prophets of Israel foretold the day on which `Nation shall not lift up sword against nation; nor will they learn war anymore.` I was imprisoned because I worked to disseminate the language in which Abraham, the founder of the Jewish religion, was told ‘Go from your country, your people and your father’s household to the land I will show you.’”

“Today, I stand before you as the Speaker of Knesset Yisrael, and, in the same language which I was imprisoned for teaching, I bless you with the ancient Jewish blessing: `Shalom Aleichem`! Even in my finest dreams, I never believed I`d reach this moment. For me, this brings double closure: For me, Yuli Edelstein, and for the entire Jewish nation, which I stand here as its representative.”

Edelstein touched on the success of Israel as well as the coninuted security challenges it faces. He urged great cooperation and communication in fighting terror.

The speech itself was the first spoken by any Israeli leader.  The honor is usually reserved for heads of state.  Jewish life in Russia under the Soviet regime was constantly threatened.  Despite the geopolitical differences between Putin and the West, Jewish life in Russia today is flourishing.

At the conclusion of his speech, Speaker Edelstein asked to convey a blessing in Hebrew from Jerusalem, “the eternal capital of the Jewish People, from which the message of justice and the war against evil has been coming out for nearly 3,000 years.” He then recited the following verse from Psalms: “Peace be within thy walls, and prosperity within thy palaces. For my brethren and companions’ sakes, I will now say: ‘Peace be within thee.’ For the sake of the house of the LORD our God I will seek thy good.

(Information in this article ​was Communicated by the Knesset Media and Public Relations Division)

 

The Real Reason Trump Wants to Hit Syria…

All signs are pointing to an imminent “preemptive” strike by the US against Syria.  This is of course a prelude to an ever-expanding role for the US military in Syria.  Now, even if Syria was about to use chemical weapons it is not clear why the US is suddenly concerned about intervening in the 6-year-old civil war. Yet, they are intervening and have been increasing their ground ops for weeks.

  • The US Military has been actively training an supporting the SDF and YPG against ISIS in Raqqa as well as solidifying the groups’ hold over large areas of Eastern Syria
  • The US Military has been active on the Eastern part of the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi border area, building US bases in Syria.
  • The US Military has redeployed the YPG to Southeastern Syria in hopes they will hold off the Syrian regime advancement

With all of the above in mind, Trump’s now direct threat against the Syrian regime and Russia’s response puts the entie region on the verge of a Syrian War on steroids.

So why would Trump risk a war with Russia/Iran over chemical weapons infractions?

As we have reported here, the Syrian Regime and its Iranian allies have been gaining ground across the country. According to sources on the ground, the Syrian regime is close to defeating rebel units in Daraa.  The Syriran regime has already started to advance on Israel, but has been held back for now by elements of the FSA (Free Syrian Army) which Israel covertly backs. In the East, the YPG has been unable to hold off the Regime’s advance.

If Trump does not make a move soon, the FSA in the Quneitra area will collapse and at the same time the gains by the US and Jordan in the East will be effectively reversed.  This will complete the Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Aleppo, and create an existential threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Shiite Crescent will also give strength to Turkey’s goal of wiping out the Kurds, effectively ending Kurdistan’s drive for independence.

The US has little time to maneuver as Syria backed by Russia and Iran are in the final weeks of mopping up from the Syrian civil war.

It is either now or never.

PUTIN RESPONDS: “White House Threats Against Syria Are Unnacceptable”

With the White House catching even the State Department off-guard with its veiled attack on “Syrian preparations” for another chemical weapons attack, Russia countered with its own statement.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov released the following statement pushing back on the Trump Administration:

“We heard about this statement. We do not know what is the basis for this. And of course we categorically disagree with the ‘another attack’ wording,” Peskov told reporters.”We also consider any similar threats to the legitimate leadership of the Syrian Arab Republic unacceptable.”

Peskov continued: “Cases of chemical toxic substances’ use by Daesh terrorists have been repeatedly recorded. There is a potential threat of the repeat of such provocations. However, I repeat that I don’t possess exact information and I believe that my colleagues from special services and the Defense Ministry will share it [information] if they possess it.”

Although no evidence was stated by the White House of Syrian preparations, Assad has been known to own stockpiles of illegal Sarin Gas.  Russia has often times blamed ISIS for Assad’s chemical weapons infractions.

That being said, the following statement by Nikki Haley is a bit odd.

This sort of statement backs up Russia’s assertions and would in fact invite a chemical weapons attack by ISIS just so Syria can be blamed.

If the White House is right about Syria, then everyone there should pull back from Twitter usage as to not give the Russians anymore ammunition for their disinformation and propoganda campaign.

If the White House is not right about Syria then we are witnessing the makings of a false flag attack in real time.