Headlines June 7: Rare Coins Found, Iran Accuses Saudi Arabia, US Promises More Israel Aid

Susan Rice criticizes Israel but promises largest aid package in history
[i24 News]

 

NGO presents MK Glick with nearly 100,000 signatures of the Jerusalem Covenant affirming Jerusalem is the eternal Biblical capital of the Jews.
[Arutz Sheva]

 

Israel has challenged the accuracy and objectivity of a report submitted by the Palestinians to the World Health Organization (WHO), saying it is riddled with misleading or false captions to photos accusing the Jewish state of wrongdoing.
[Ynet News]

 

The Smith Research Center poll, commissioned by the “Commanders for Israel’s Security” movement, reveals that 57 percent of Israelis who don’t reside in Jerusalem fear visiting the city amid the months-long wave of Palestinian stabbing, car-ramming, and shooting terror attacks against Jewish Israelis.
[JP Updates]

 

Speaker of Iran’s Parliament claims Saudi Arabia shared intelligence with Israel during the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
[Arutz Sheva]

 

Anxious Callers Can Now Track Israeli MDA Ambulances Via GPS
[The Jewish Press]

 

A Rare Cache of Silver Coins Dating to the Hasmonean Period was Discovered in Modi‘in
[Israel Antiquities Authority]

Headlines June 2: New Jordan Prime Minister, 104 Terrorists Brought Into Israel, Bibi Says Jerusalem Belongs to Israel

104 terrorists brought into Israel under family reunification law
[Arutz Sheva]

 

PM Netanyahu addresses the Knesset in honor of Jerusalem Day. Jerusalem belongs to Israel and the Jewish people, Netanyahu says.
[Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

 

A journalist for an Iranian news outlet was arrested in northern Israel on Wednesday for incitement and supporting terror groups, police said.
[Times of Israel]

 

Jordan’s King Abdullah Appoints Prime Minister With Strong ties to Israel
[JP Updates]

 

Speaking during a debate in parliament on Monday, neo-Nazi Christos Pappas, from the Golden Dawn party,  called Israel an “eternal enemy of Greece and Orthodoxy.
[The Jerusalem Post]

Headlines: Stabbing Attack, Earthquake, Iran Holocaust Denial Cartoon Contest

One man wounded after stabbing attack along Hanevi’im Street in Jerusalem. Arab terrorist arrested.
[Arutz Sheva]

 

Light earthquake measuring 4.8 hits southern Israel; No injuries reported.
[The Jerusalem Post]

 

Iran mocks the Holocaust by staging a Nazi-themed cartoon contest, as Israeli prime minister claims the Islamic Republic is ‘preparing another genocide’
[Daily Mail]

 

The planned French international peace initiative will take place without Israeli or Palestinian Authority participation.
[The Jewish press]

 

Nasrallah: We must be vigilant against the ‘Zionists’. Hezbollah leader warns of Israel’s moves in the region, calls for vigilance.
[Arutz Sheva]

 

Two suspects have been arrested and are still being questioned for the Hizme checkpoint bombing earlier this month.
[The Jewish press]

Headlines: Iran, Sheikh Raed Salah, Continued Israeli Tunnel Operations

Senior White House official Ben Rhodes has caused an uproar among journalists, political pundits and policy officials after he admitted to manipulating the public with “misleading or false” information to garner support for last July’s nuclear deal with Iran.
[The Algemeiner]

 

31 civilian Israelis have been killed in terror attacks since last Israeli Independence Day (Yom Ha’atzmaut), Bituach Leumi announced Monday – including 29 since September. 379 people have been injured.
[Arutz Sheva]

 

Leader of the extremist Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement, Sheikh Raed Salah, began serving a nine-month jail sentence on Sunday following his conviction last March on charges of incitement.
[Jerusalem Post]

 

Israel will continue to act as necessary to uncover and counter the threat of tunnels in the south. We are not seeking escalation, but we will not be deterred from doing whatever is necessary to maintain security.
[Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

 

The Crown Prince of Iran said on Thursday that “no one in the world is safe as long as the current Iranian regime remains in power,” though Israel is not in imminent peril in the wake of the nuclear deal.
[The Algemeiner]

Can the Turkey-Russian War Break the Alliance System?

Are we in 1914 or 2016.  Sometimes with all of the alliances it’s hard to tell.  Then again when it comes to Syria there are some outliers that might just throw the alliance system out the window. With the war in Syria on the verge of turning into a much wider conflict it is important to understand how all the sides are stacked.

Russia, Iran, Syria, Armenia

The Shiite-Russian alliance has been steadily growing for some time. The pervading assumption has been Russia’s need for a Mediterranean port being behind his support of Assad.  With Turkey’s downing of the SU-24, Putin’s calculus has changed.

Long an opponent of Turkey’s expansionism, Putin used the SU-24 incident to turn the screws on Turkey’s Erdogan. Armenia, a close ally of Russia is being beefed up as a potential launching pad for attacks against Turkey.  Besides its alliance with Russia, Armenia has historical redresses with Turkey going back to the 1915 Armenian Genocide.

Iran and the Syrian government’s forces have become Russia’s ground troops in taking back the strategic Western part of the country. Russia has avoided a repeat of its Afghanistan debacle by using the Shiite armies to do its work. Besides that, the Shiites are giving Russia real geopolitical leverage against the region’s Sunni powers.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Gulf States

What makes the stakes so high in Syria, is the exacerbation of the Sunni-Shiite conflict.  With Russia in full concert with the Shiite led countries, the Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey see no other choice but to go into the fray.  The reasoning is simple: the Shiites with a resurgent Russia need to be stopped now or risk being too formidable once their gains are entrenched.

The Sunnis are 90% of the Islamic world, but the growing Shiite crescent creates a real strategic nightmare for them, effectively cutting the Sunni world in two and, of course, controlling key oil routes that will have a very real effect on future regional control.

NATO

Although conventional wisdom insists that NATO would issue the game changing Article 5 in the case of a Turkish-Russian war, it is not at all clear NATO will pick a side. Europe is very much dependent on Russian gas during the winter.  They are also trying to tamp down the off again on again conflict in East Ukraine and need Russia to help them.  As for Obama and the USA, getting into a war with Russia and the Shiites on behalf of Turkey and the gulf states is not something they want.  

With all of that being said, a full out war between Russia and Turkey will have large consequences for energy control, economy, and refugees.  NATO may have little choice but to jump into things on behalf of their most disliked member, Turkey, even if the gamble proves to be a negative one.

Greece, Cyprus, Israel

With Greece, Cyprus, and Israel’s new found partnership in energy, technology, and security all three of them are loath to pick sides in what is fast turning into a geopolitical typhoon.  Greece and Cyprus are arch enemies of Turkey and it is no surprise that Greece has made it clear that they see Russia as a friend and potential partner.  This of course puts Israel into an uncomfortable position.  At one hand, Israel has been seeking what is known as a neutral foreign policy for decades and, on the other hand, is still very much in the orbit of Europe and the USA.  

With Russian overflights of Israeli airspace increasing daily and new trade avenues opening up with the very countries aligned with Russia, it should no longer be surprising what side the government in Jerusalem picks. Then again, that would put it on the same side as its arch enemies, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.  Russia insists it has them in check, but trusting Putin has never been a good idea.

Of course, Bibi and Israel rather stay out of it and continue trading with all parties equally, but remaining neutral may no longer be an option.

Jordan

The King of Jordan has vacillated between the West and Russia.  In many ways for the same reason Israel has. Surrounded by ISIS and Al Qaida, King Hussein’s rule is the most tenuous in the Middle East.  Assurances for his family and his throne’s safety are key.  If Russia can promise protection, then Jordan may very well switch sides.

Kurdistan

Kurdistan has always been hard to read. Typically speaking, the Kurds (split between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) have done their best to pick partners that would be willing to help them advance their independence agenda. In this case, Russia seems most willing to help defend and enhance Kurdish objectives; mainly because the Kurds are the single biggest domestic threat to Turkey.

If a Turkish-Russian war does materialize then the Kurds are Putin’s most important weapon.  They give Putin a Turkish domestic constituency primed for a violent uprising.  In addition, they are a formidable fighting force situated along the length of Turkey’s entire Southern border.  Coupled with the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan is oil rich makes them the lynchpin Putin needs.

What’s Next?

Full on war between Russia and Turkey and their respective allies seems almost certain at this point.  The question is: when? That depends much on Turkey’s actions in the next few days.  If the Turkish army continues to shell Northern Syria and even sends troops in then Russia will act. Russia will claim they have no choice but to capture the Bosphorous Straits, in order to defend against a Turkish closure to Russian vessels. At that point, the key actor to look at is NATO.  If they enter on the side of Turkey,  Russia will send their army into Ukraine. Once that happens all bets are off.

The Great Unwinding Has Begun

[dropcap]D[/dropcap]espite the US Treasury’s best market manipulation, which may or may not save US Stocks for the day, the inevitable stomach turning feeling that the World is once again out of control is unmistakably in the air. There has been a subtle feeling that this could be the reality for months now and as Iran’s oil came into the global market, crude’s collapse has been assured. With oil down below $27 a barrel, the market rout that has been underway since the first of January will assuredly continue.

dow-30-days
Courtesy Bloomberg

In all honesty, the global recovery since 2008 has not really been a recovery.  Propped up by cheap credit and a farce of a fracking and shale industry as well the emerging markets, which have been more fictional than fact, the economy should have given way a long time ago.  Humans like to live in a bubble. So long as there has been available credit the false economy could continue lying.

Keynesian Economics is Bringing Everything Else Down

The game that has been played by the central bankers for the last few decades has reached the end.  Over manipulation of the markets which has flowed from the statist policies rooted in Keynesian Economics has warped the global economy.  This unraveling is picking up pace and threatens to derail the global economy.

Listen to the Podcast Below

Keynesian Economics never made much sense. The idea that central banks could increase deficit spending to ensure economic growth in times of stagnation would eventually be over used. The only surprise is that is has taken this long for a real decoupling to begin.

From Economic Collapse to War

One thing is certain. When global economic stresses increase to an unacceptable level, geopolitical friction begin to stir. Russia cannot sustain itself with oil as low as it is.  Neither can the Arab nations or Iran.

With no reason to keep the guns holstered expect Russia and Iran to be on the move. After all, the best way to raise oil prices is war. If there is war then why not make the most of it and restore some lost territory in Ukraine and other areas Mother Russia once had.

For Israel’s part, the economic level of most of its citizens have always been borderline poverty.  If the tech bubble bursts the government will have to instill emergency measure.  Of course, Israel has always functioned on a different wavelength and there is no reason to assume it won’t do so this time as well. Of course if there is real war, all bets are off.

Hezbollah Gets a Raise

As I sit here writing this article a monster is being let out of the cage.  All the talk of “peace in our time” too as well as changing strategic partnerships are just euphemisms for politicians who have given the regime in Iran what it needs to go from being an uninfluential terrorist sponsoring state to already on its way to becoming a regional superpower.

Already an emboldened Iran is forcing the hand of the Gulf States to decide between Saudi Arabia and themselves.  It has made it clear that it will pour tons of money that is being unlocked as part of the agreement into its army and terrorist entities.

The idea that Iran needs a nuclear weapon to wipe out Israel is a farce. It does not need nukes nor an ICBM for that.  These are things it needs to attack Europe and America. This what made the Iran Nuclear Deal so ridiculous.  It’s as if the Western powers really believed that Iran just wanted to kill Jews, something none of them really took issue with.

Nasrallah is Coming for Jerusalem

Iran’s main weapon against Israel is Hezbollah.  With Hezbollah’s hundreds of thousands of missiles covering most of Israel, Iran does not need a nuke to knock out Israel’s vital locations. Add to that Russia’s coverage of the Levant under the S-400 system, which makes a surprise attack by Israel against Hezbollah installations daunting to say the least. Hezbollah has also been receiving Russian weapons in its fight against the Syrian rebels.

With Nasrallah to Israel’s North, it is no wonder Bibi is trying his best to be on good terms with Putin.  Ultimately speaking, the USA and Europe have little or no leverage on Iran, but Russia is different and so Bibi’s strategy is to woo the newest Tsar and hope that in time another solution arises.

Iran Unleashed

Now that the nuclear deal is a done and money is flowing into Iran, the stakes in the Middle East have risen.  Iran’s regime is revolutionary in nature.  Revolutionaries do not rest until the revolution is complete. For Iran it is simple. When the Mahdi comes the Revolution is done.  For Iran, their first target is Saudi Arabia and the next is Europe and the USA.  Israel, is of course a target, but one that Iran believes will and can be taken care of fairly easily.

The Mahdi or the hidden Imam will only come when the world reaches a state of chaos. The Western governments and Russia have seen no harm in enabling one of the most dangerous regimes in the History of the World. Of course their rationale seems unchanged from their counterparts over 70 years ago in relation to Hitler.  Then Hitler was “only” after the Jews.  Chamberlain and company saw no problem with letting a bunch of unwanted Jews die to avert war.  Well, war came anyway and with it, the near destruction of the world.

This time, the global elite have made a similar judgement. War is not far off, it is moments away.

Iran Can be Stopped

The irony of Iran’s re entry into global markets is that crude oil prices stand between 29 to 31 dollars per barrel. That is far lower than needed to sustain the Iranian economy. With their oil back into global circulation the price will plummet further.  This means the Ayatollahs cannot wait to pounce on their neighbors, but must move quickly before their economy implodes completely.

This makes Iran extremely dangerous in the short term with the potential for sparking global conflict by attacking Saudi Arabia and Israel. Furthermore by forcing both the USA’s hand as well as Russia’s conflict is in the offing.  

If Iran balks in the coming weeks, their economic turmoil will increase.  At that point the regime will be in danger. Essentially, Iran can be stopped by the regime itself.

Conclusion

Despite neoconservative warmongering against Iran and their client regime in Syria, the best choice of action at this point is to find a way to keep forcing the price of oil lower until Iran either makes a faulty step forward or waits too long to jump. Militarily speaking Israel and those seeking to defend the World from the Mullahs must be ready to fight when Iran attacks which will come sooner than expected.  The rest will be up to the Almighty.

 

Iran and USA: Cornering Israel

Shortly before President Obama’s final State of the Union Address, Iranian Revolutionary Guards gunboats seized and detained 2 ships belonging to the United States military and the ten marines on board. Less than 24 hours later the marines were released. The typical chorus and rhapsody of neoconservative pundits seriously believed that this would be the “straw that broke the camel’s back” and Obama would have the guts to stand up to the Persians.

The assumption that the Obama administration works according to the same rule book that past Presidents have is a perception that just doesn’t fit.  The Obama administration won’t risk war with Iran, not because it believes war is bad.  Afterall they toppled Gaddafi. They won’t risk war with Iran, because Obama and team and their shrills in the media believe wholeheartedly that Iran should be seen as a future strategic partner.  After all, Obama didn’t even mention the captive soldiers in his State of the Union Address. Of course for Obama, this is more to do with his world outlook than strategic positioning.

Barack Obama is a transformational President. In that regard, bridging the divide with Persia, a country he believes deserves respect because of their ancient roots, fits in with his restructuring of geopolitical partnerships.

Furthermore, it is quite probable the action Iran took was undertaken from the beginning as a means to show that they are actually reasonable. Given Obama’s rapprochement with Iran, he is more than willing to let Iran play the part of a reasonable actor.

Israel In a Corner

Bibi Netanyahu’s entire mantra is that one should not negotiate with irrational actors as was done with North Korea. Bibi has from the beginning tried to prove that Iran and North Korea are very similar.  This has fed into Obama’s strategy of showing the opposite.  By inculcating in the American people that Bibi and Israel are saber rattling and preventing what should otherwise we be a rapprochement, then the bad guys backed by the neocons is really Israel.

Once again the the chess match between Bibi and Obama has entered another back and forth phase.  The challenge for Israel is realizing they are playing  at a chessboard alone as their challenger plays with very different rules and a far more sinister goal.

 

Iran and the USA: Partnering for Destruction

In the shifting sands of the Middle East, old alliances are crumbling and new ones are forming.  Nowhere do we see the evidence of this in the support the American government is giving Iran over Saudi Arabia in the growing feud between the two countries.

True, the American administration is playing it cool, but already the think tanks that lay various trial balloons have been working over time.  

“Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble, and they know it,” Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider on Sunday.

Bremmer added on Morning Joe that “I don’t know what legitimizes this regime [Saudi Arabia] going forward.”

The chorus is growing to let Saudi Arabia stew and in a sense the regime there understands it and that is exactly why they are ratcheting up the pressure. One of the arguments for going neutral or even subtly supporting Iran against Saudi Arabia is that eventually the theocrats in Persia will melt away and when they do Iran fits in far better with a future American foreign policy than Saudi Arabia.  

Whether or not there is some legitimacy to this is not the point, what the world is witnessing is a pendulum that is swinging so fast that it threatens to destabilize the remaining normative countries in the region.  This storm that is brewing between Iran and Saudi Arabia will almost certainly lead to a disastrous conflict that can and will bring in nations from around the world.

The Future is Now

Israel will have to act in a careful, but at the same time determined manner. Unfortunately the present leadership has allowed the threats to build up around Israel’s borders and may actually be much further in a corner than they want to admit.

Look for the next few months to be extremely volatile in the broader Middle East as countries jockey position before the opening shots of a much broader conflict.

Can Russia Be Trusted?

The deconfliction mechanism that had been hailed as a stroke of geopolitical genius from the brain of Bibi Netanyahu seems to be a double edge sword. It is a sour pill that keeps on getting worse.  Especially now that Hezbollah is exploiting the agreement to prepare a forward attack on Israel’s North. It is true that Russia would prefer not to have an Israel that feels so threatened it destabilizes the Levant, but like I have insisted for a while, Putin is far more a tactical player when dealing opposing forces he wants to utilize in his broader strategy.

For Putin those that deserve his help are those that perform.  Israel will have to deal with an Iranian backed militia with free reign to attack, while delicately placating the Russian Bear who seems to be bending the rules of the deconfliction mechanism each week.

Trusting Putin is Mistake

The Israeli government has consistently made the same mistake throughout the decades.  It struggles to find players it feels it can put its trust in and by providing more assistance than anyone else it believes there will be reciprocity.

During the Cold War this strategy worked, simply because the tectonic plates of geopolitics demanded that it worked, but now in a multipolar world, putting trust in one country or another without strong leverage is a mistake.

Although Putin is a strong man, Israel is just another piece on his chessboard. Nothing should prove this more than Putin forcing us into a corner through niceties while Hezbollah and Iran have been able to build up on Israel’s borders.  It’s true Putin has allowed the Israeli Air force to attack arms convoys heading to Hezbollah. It is striking that the IAF did not attack in the latest skirmish, but rather Israel resorted to pounding the area with artillery.  This can only mean one thing.  Russia is holding Israel back from taking clear steps against Hezbollah.

Trust Only in G-d

Israel’s government needs to rely only on themselves and their faith in the Almighty  All else will fall into place.  The miracles that accompanied the Jewish people back to their Land are clear. If the Nation will increase their belief and trust in the Almighty as they did in the past then nothing will harm them.  Unfortunately the government seems to only mention themselves in reference to the situation without attribution to a higher power.

In the coming months the situation will continue to deteriorate. The question is who will stand up and lead Israel to victory.