ISRAEL-TURKEY CONFRONTATION: Is Cyprus Ground Zero for War?

Since 1974 Turkey has occupied 40% of Cyprus, constituting in what the international community holds is an illegal occupation. In that time Turkey has driven out the Greek Cypriots from the Turkish enclave in the northern part of the island, where the ethnic Greeks had made up more than 80% of the populace.

As Turkey has swung further and further towards an Islamist style republic, with an increasingly autocratic president in Erdogan, Israel and Cyprus along with Greece have begun to form various economic alliances as a buffer to Turkey’s expansion. While Cypriot animosity to their Turkish occupiers cannot be overstated, Israel’s increasingly strong economic position and regional leadership capabilities in the technology and military arenas is both attractive and reassuring.

Greece, Cyprus, and Israel have jointly developed an East Med gas pipeline that will take their gas to Europe.  This has given them the need to also create a joint task force in dealing with threats from Iran, Hezbollah, and Turkey to both Cyprus’ and Israel’s gas and oil fields.

With Turkey trying to establish itself as the leader of the Islamic world, it has grown more and more antagonistic to Israel. Yet, behoind its stated infuriation over Israel’s self-defense from a potential Gaza stampede, the real thing bothering Erdogan is Israel’s alignment with Greece and Cyprus.

With positive relationships having been developed over the years in tourism between the three countries and now with a combination of economic, technological, and energy cooperation, Israel has become the stable anchor and friend both Cyprus and its big brother Greece have sought.



Turkey has grown very cool to the idea of energy collaboration between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. In a recent visit to London Turkey’s Erdogan said that the “Eastern Mediterranean faces a security threat should Cyprus continue its unilateral operations of offshore oil and gas exploration in the region.”

Earlier this year, Turkish Navy vessels threatened to sink a drilling ship hired by Eni to explore for oil and gas off Cyprus’s shore.  Weeks before that, Turkey’s Navy had blocked the drilling vessel that Eni had hired.

Turkey claims that the drilling operations are ‘unilateral’ and claims that part of the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus is under Turkish jurisdiction.

These sorts of events and declarations have pushed Greece, Cyprus, and Israel closer together.  With the latest row between Turkey and Israel heightening tensions between the two, the frontlines of any potential conflict between the two may end up being Cyprus who has begun to rely on Israel for help with maritime security training.

With tensions mounting between Turkey and the three East Mediterranean allies,  Jonathan Cohen, US State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs said the following in hopes of calming the situation: “If confirmed, I will continue to support longstanding US policy recognizing the Republic of Cyprus’s right to develop its resources in its EEZ. The island’s oil and gas resources, like all of its resources, should be equitably shared between both communities on the island in the context of an overall settlement.”

Cohen backed by the US government appears to be placating both the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government along with Turkey’s assertion that it deserves some of the access to Cyrus’ resources.  The problem with this approach is it rewards Turkey for it malevolent behavior at a time when it is actively engaged in wrecking havoc in several geographic areas in the region.

With the continued cooperation between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece in the offing, expect tensions to only increase with Turkey. Will there be war in the eastern Mediterranean? Perhaps not tomorrow, but with a falling Lira and an expansionist leader in Ankara, the threat is only increasing.

BIBI NETANYAHU TO ERDOGAN: “Don’t Preach to Us About Morality”

Turkey’s islamist and autocratic ruler President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has taken the lead in the current international onslaught against Israel for its defense from Hamas terrorists.

“Israel is wreaking state terror. Israel is a terror state,” Erdogan told Turkish students in London. “What Israel has done is a genocide. I condemn this humanitarian drama, the genocide, from whichever side it comes, Israel or America.”

In response to Israel’s defense on the Gaza border, Turkey has recalled its ambassadors from both Israel and the United States.

In response to Erdogan’s comments Prime Minister Netanyahu responded by stating: “Erdogan is among Hamas’s biggest supporters and there is no doubt that he well understands terrorism and slaughter. I suggest that he not preach morality to us.”

Beyond supporting Hamas, it was Erdogan’s Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) that not only overran the Kurdish majority Afrin canton in Syria over a month ago, but killed thousands of what he called Kurdish terrorists.  Most reports indicated that many of those killed were civilians.  Of course as I noted in an article at the time, Erdogan selectively uses the word terrorist interchangeably when referring to groups of people he doesn’t like.




Netanyahu had said something similar in response to another outrageous Erdogan comment back in April: “Erdogan is not used to people responding to him, but he should start getting used to it. Anyone who occupies northern Cyprus, invades the Kurdish strip and slaughters citizens in Afrin, should not lecture us about values and ethics.”

I wrote the following in connection to the Prime Minister’s response: “The continuing realignment in the Middle East has begun to create chaos with a number of actors scrambling to pick sides. Donald Trump has clearly decided to pull the USA out of the mess, but that has only created more of a mess. Bibi’s statement about the Kurds and Cyprus is a hint of the role that Israel appears ready and willing to take on. This of course pits the Jewish state on a collision course with Turkey who has delusions of returning to the golden age of the Ottoman Empire.”

Since April Israel has strengthened its eastern Mediteranean alliance with both Cyprus and Greece with a direct visit to Cyprus by Bibi to strengthen Israel’s partnership on building the EastMed Pipeline last week.

The event was not lost on Erdogan, who stands to lose big on enhanced ties between Cyprus, Greece, and Israel. In fact Erdogan cited an east Meditereanean security threat due to Cyprus’ activities in the eastern Meditereanean.  Like anything else Erdogan doesn’t like, it becomes a dangerous security threat or essentially a false pretext to pick a fight.

Israel must continue to take the mantle of leadership it has been given and lead and remain undaunted in the face of faux moralists who twist the truth to suit their geopolitical needs. This is why Prime Minister Netanyahu quoted the prophet Zecharia at the embassy opening: “Jerusalem is the City of Truth.”

How Serious is the Emerging Alliance Between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus?

The answer to the above is… very serious.  I wrote the following over a year ago in my article: Israel is Moving Beyond Turkey:

The alliance stands to quickly change the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical reality, providing a sense of stability in a region engulfed by radical Islamic chaos. The burgeoning partnership is a testament to Israel’s increased standing in the World, despite the claims of isolation due to a lack of movement in the “peace process.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu is departing today to meet with the leaders of both Greece and Cyprus in Thessaloniki, Greece, for the third G2G meeting and for the third trilateral summit between the leaders of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus.

According to reports agreements are expected to include tripartite cooperation in the fields of energy, communications, environmental protection, innovation and scientific research and development.

The emerging East Mediterranean Alliance not only strengthens Israel, but changes the geo-political reality in Europe as the EU continues to collapse.  Already Israelis find it easy and affordable to travel to Greece and Cyprus for vacation.  In terms of joint military and energy exploration, the three countries are suited to work together to create stability in the face of Middle Eastern chaos. The alliance offers Greece and Cyprus an alternative to the centralized power held by the EU in Brussels.

As world alliances begin to shift away from the post cold-war model, rising economic and technological power like Israel have begun to provide regional stability. So are we seeing an emergence of a new trading zone? Don’t be surprised.

 

Headlines June 2: New Jordan Prime Minister, 104 Terrorists Brought Into Israel, Bibi Says Jerusalem Belongs to Israel

104 terrorists brought into Israel under family reunification law
[Arutz Sheva]

 

PM Netanyahu addresses the Knesset in honor of Jerusalem Day. Jerusalem belongs to Israel and the Jewish people, Netanyahu says.
[Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

 

A journalist for an Iranian news outlet was arrested in northern Israel on Wednesday for incitement and supporting terror groups, police said.
[Times of Israel]

 

Jordan’s King Abdullah Appoints Prime Minister With Strong ties to Israel
[JP Updates]

 

Speaking during a debate in parliament on Monday, neo-Nazi Christos Pappas, from the Golden Dawn party,  called Israel an “eternal enemy of Greece and Orthodoxy.
[The Jerusalem Post]

Can the Turkey-Russian War Break the Alliance System?

Are we in 1914 or 2016.  Sometimes with all of the alliances it’s hard to tell.  Then again when it comes to Syria there are some outliers that might just throw the alliance system out the window. With the war in Syria on the verge of turning into a much wider conflict it is important to understand how all the sides are stacked.

Russia, Iran, Syria, Armenia

The Shiite-Russian alliance has been steadily growing for some time. The pervading assumption has been Russia’s need for a Mediterranean port being behind his support of Assad.  With Turkey’s downing of the SU-24, Putin’s calculus has changed.

Long an opponent of Turkey’s expansionism, Putin used the SU-24 incident to turn the screws on Turkey’s Erdogan. Armenia, a close ally of Russia is being beefed up as a potential launching pad for attacks against Turkey.  Besides its alliance with Russia, Armenia has historical redresses with Turkey going back to the 1915 Armenian Genocide.

Iran and the Syrian government’s forces have become Russia’s ground troops in taking back the strategic Western part of the country. Russia has avoided a repeat of its Afghanistan debacle by using the Shiite armies to do its work. Besides that, the Shiites are giving Russia real geopolitical leverage against the region’s Sunni powers.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Gulf States

What makes the stakes so high in Syria, is the exacerbation of the Sunni-Shiite conflict.  With Russia in full concert with the Shiite led countries, the Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey see no other choice but to go into the fray.  The reasoning is simple: the Shiites with a resurgent Russia need to be stopped now or risk being too formidable once their gains are entrenched.

The Sunnis are 90% of the Islamic world, but the growing Shiite crescent creates a real strategic nightmare for them, effectively cutting the Sunni world in two and, of course, controlling key oil routes that will have a very real effect on future regional control.

NATO

Although conventional wisdom insists that NATO would issue the game changing Article 5 in the case of a Turkish-Russian war, it is not at all clear NATO will pick a side. Europe is very much dependent on Russian gas during the winter.  They are also trying to tamp down the off again on again conflict in East Ukraine and need Russia to help them.  As for Obama and the USA, getting into a war with Russia and the Shiites on behalf of Turkey and the gulf states is not something they want.  

With all of that being said, a full out war between Russia and Turkey will have large consequences for energy control, economy, and refugees.  NATO may have little choice but to jump into things on behalf of their most disliked member, Turkey, even if the gamble proves to be a negative one.

Greece, Cyprus, Israel

With Greece, Cyprus, and Israel’s new found partnership in energy, technology, and security all three of them are loath to pick sides in what is fast turning into a geopolitical typhoon.  Greece and Cyprus are arch enemies of Turkey and it is no surprise that Greece has made it clear that they see Russia as a friend and potential partner.  This of course puts Israel into an uncomfortable position.  At one hand, Israel has been seeking what is known as a neutral foreign policy for decades and, on the other hand, is still very much in the orbit of Europe and the USA.  

With Russian overflights of Israeli airspace increasing daily and new trade avenues opening up with the very countries aligned with Russia, it should no longer be surprising what side the government in Jerusalem picks. Then again, that would put it on the same side as its arch enemies, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.  Russia insists it has them in check, but trusting Putin has never been a good idea.

Of course, Bibi and Israel rather stay out of it and continue trading with all parties equally, but remaining neutral may no longer be an option.

Jordan

The King of Jordan has vacillated between the West and Russia.  In many ways for the same reason Israel has. Surrounded by ISIS and Al Qaida, King Hussein’s rule is the most tenuous in the Middle East.  Assurances for his family and his throne’s safety are key.  If Russia can promise protection, then Jordan may very well switch sides.

Kurdistan

Kurdistan has always been hard to read. Typically speaking, the Kurds (split between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) have done their best to pick partners that would be willing to help them advance their independence agenda. In this case, Russia seems most willing to help defend and enhance Kurdish objectives; mainly because the Kurds are the single biggest domestic threat to Turkey.

If a Turkish-Russian war does materialize then the Kurds are Putin’s most important weapon.  They give Putin a Turkish domestic constituency primed for a violent uprising.  In addition, they are a formidable fighting force situated along the length of Turkey’s entire Southern border.  Coupled with the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan is oil rich makes them the lynchpin Putin needs.

What’s Next?

Full on war between Russia and Turkey and their respective allies seems almost certain at this point.  The question is: when? That depends much on Turkey’s actions in the next few days.  If the Turkish army continues to shell Northern Syria and even sends troops in then Russia will act. Russia will claim they have no choice but to capture the Bosphorous Straits, in order to defend against a Turkish closure to Russian vessels. At that point, the key actor to look at is NATO.  If they enter on the side of Turkey,  Russia will send their army into Ukraine. Once that happens all bets are off.

Israel is Moving Beyond Turkey

Israel, Greece, and Cyprus held a top level three way meeting on building a gas pipeline from Israel and Cyprus to Greece, for exporting gas to Europe.  This has been brewing for a while and the reports that we pushed forward previously have come to fruition, indicating that Israel is not waiting for Turkey to decide if they want to be part of the growing detente.

“Our partnership is not exclusive in design or nature, and we are ready to welcome other like-minded actors to join our efforts to promote coordination and cooperation, as well as regional peace and stability,” the three leaders said in a joint statement.

The above statement seems to leave the door open for Turkey at a later stage, but clearly at a reduced role.  The energy alliance is quickly growing into something far more concrete as  the three leaders talked about coordination on security, hi-tech, energy, and other important issues.

Israel-Greece-Cyprus

The alliance stands to quickly change the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical reality, providing a sense of stability in a region engulfed by radical Islamic chaos. The burgeoning partnership is a testament to Israel’s increased standing in the World, despite the claims of isolation due to a lack of movement in the “peace process.”

Last month the Greek premiere Alexis Tsipras called Jerusalem, Israel’s historic capital, which many people saw as a sign that relations between the two countries were moving to a new level of cooperation.

The Quiet Revolution

Darkness feels like it’s everywhere these days.  From ISIS, Iran, and Hezbollah on our borders and the slow motion Palestinian Intifada within, our enemies are literally surrounding us.  Old friends are in disarray and our new partners are untrustworthy. The government in Israel seems almost wishful in its outlook on our geopolitical situation and far too fixated on political gain by locking up young settler activists without trial.

The government has gone seemingly mad.  One day they are building an alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt and the next they are entertaining the idea of rapprochement with Turkey.

So why the confusion?

The State of Israel was born out of two conflicting historical movements. One was the 19h century nationalist movement that had swept the European continent and inspired European Jews to build for themselves a National Homeland in their historic home located in the Land of Israel.

The second movement popped up after the Holocaust and before National Independence in 1948. It what an international movement by the world to give the Jews a State a sort of amelioration for the slaughter that was purpotrated by the Nazis and their supporters during WW2. This movement came at the tailend of the Revolt in which the three competing Jewish paramilitary units in the Holy Land were attempting to push out the British. It is no accident that the British would have have saved millions of Jews if not for their whitepaper and yet despite the loss to the Jewish Nation, the Jews of the Palestinian Mandate pushed on against the one of the World’s strongest Nations.

Before the British could be embarrassed the amelioration movement, which had nothing to do with Zionism came in and saved the British. On the 29th of November 1947 Resolution 181 was passed by the UN and despite its never being implemented the Resolution cemented in the World’s mind that the State of Israel, (which would have been born with or without the UN) was birthed exclusively by the United Nations as a reaction to the Holocaust.

The sad irony that it was in fact Britain whose policies kept Jewish immigration to the mandate at near standstill while Jews were being slaughtered by the Nazis by the millions standing behind the fledgling Jewish State is not accidental. The young state would not last against the British trained Arab forces and in due time would have to invite the British back in. Of course the opposite happened and yet the colonial mentality persists and pervades the ruling elite in Israel.

The idea that Israel is a creation of the UN buries the gains the Zionist Revolution made within the hearts of the masses before the partition plan was drafted.  After all it was not us with the Almighty at our backs that pushed the British out, it was they they British who gave us our State. This causes a yearning to be loved by the Nations and creates an incoherent geopolitical strategy.

Noting the historical amnesia of the Jewish Nation, Rabbi Yehuda HaKohen, founder of Lavi Olami notes in a 2008 op-ed the following:

“Like the American Revolution, the Zionist Revolution succeeded in liberating a country from the mighty British Empire. And this was no small achievement for Jewish people who, only three years earlier, were being systematically butchered by the millions in Europe. Freedom was won in blood and fire by heroic young fighters willing to give their lives so that future generations would see a Hebrew flag over Jerusalem. But aside from this near-impossible feat, the Zionist Revolution also had – and still has – several more seemingly unattainable tasks to accomplish.”

Despite the setbacks and void in leadership at the national level, a quiet revolution is afoot. More and more people are recognizing that the path forward is to once again cultivate our roots. Silently and nearly methodically there has been an organic growth in young activists looking out at the regional landscape and seeing their own indigenous experience and wanting to hook back into it. It is this connection to the Land and Nation that young zionists within Israel are beginning to lay as the foundation for going forward.

More than this though, the Zionist Revolution calls on the people of Israel to elect and support leaders that partner with like minded indigenous nations in the region as well as economic and military policies that are independent from the needs of the interests of the global elites and neo-conservative elements entrenched in American foreign policy institutions.

A successful revolution means foreign organizations and global corporations who do not have the Jewish Nation’s best interests are to be kept out of decision making. Sadly our current leaders, from Naftali Bennett to Bibi Netanyahu at the very least believe the State of Israel has achieved its revolution and perhaps they have succumbed to the spirit that we were in fact born out of the ovens and gas chambers of the Holocaust rather than as a result of the immovable destiny of our ancient Nation.  

Thankfully, there are those who see things differently, who place the revolution still ahead of us. From the throngs of Temple Mount activists, to the young guard in the Likud as well Moshe Feiglin’s new party Zehut, Israel’s future is bright as the body politic across the country has begin to shed to darkness of the exile in order to embrace a far more expansive future.  

The challenges ahead are immense and in many ways the Nation of Israel has survived far more dire circumstances, but at the end of the day the leaders of our past were guided by the fears of the Holocaust without concern to the future. If Israel can embrace a complete faith in its cause and tap into the strength of its forefathers it will acquire the ability to deal with its enemies, while properly deciphering wrong from right. Only then will the Zionist Revolution have the ability to fulfill its true potential.

The world finds itself in a moment of chaos. Our leaders have been swept up by foreign ideals and goals.  Ultimately only a clear sighted vision based on truth and faith will lead us out of the darkness we are in.

 

Israel Behind the News [Dec 21, 2015]

Rockets Hit Northern Israel

Here we go again, so the theory would go, but more likely than not the retaliation we will surely see for Kuntar’s demise will be in another form, most likely an attempt to infiltrate the North as was Kuntar’s plan. The rocket attack is more or less a way for the Arabs in Hezbollah to let some steam off.

Mahmoud Abbas in Greece, Waiting for PA Recognition as New Nation

This must be the Greeks’ way of trying to stay relevant.  Remember there is a gas deal with Israel and their own Prime Minister referred to Jerusalem as Israel’s historic capital. Whatever the reason, it is sad that the world cannot move on beyond supporting independence of a non-entity, never mind the fact that Palestine was not a Nation.

Benjamin Netanyahu ‘threatens to strip Jerusalem residency from 230,000 Palestinians’

Well the above link just shows you how out of touch the liberal media is to sovereignty issues. No one is stripping the “Palestinians” in Jerusalem of residency (which as a sovereign nation they are allowed to do), but rather those Arabs who are aiding and abetting terror.  The same debate is going on across the globe.

 

[Podcast] Israel’s Allies and Turkey’s Demise

This podcast is a continuation of my previous post on Israel’s indigenous allies.  The podcast covers Turkey’s isolation and the fast pace of the new security and energy alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel. In the podcast we also discuss Russia’s relationship to Israel and the turbulent changes in the region. Other subjects we cover are Russia’s encirclement of Turkey by way of Armenia, Iraq, and Syria, as well as Greece and Cyprus.

Sources to look at:

  1. http://www.timesofisrael.com/greek-pm-discusses-gas-development-with-netanyahu/
  2. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/turkish-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-signals-possible-warming-of-ties-with-israel/articleshow/50170152.cms
  3. http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-lukewarm-to-erdogan-overture-ball-is-in-turkeys-court/
  4. http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/167367/russia-continues-military-buildup-around-turkey
  5. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-iraq-idUSKBN0TX0TI20151214

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Israel Behind the News [Dec 10, 2015]

Knifing Victim From Kiryat Arba Shows Slight Improvement

A Chanukah miracle is unfolding.  The gardener of the Cave of the Patriarchs that was stabbed earlier in the week and given a slim chance to live has miraculously shown some signs of improvement. He was stabbed four times; one in the chest, two in the heart and one in the pancreas.

Mark Zuckerberg Fails To Understand the Threat 

Mark Zuckerberg posted what seems to be a push back against Donald Trump. Mark wants to lend his support to Muslims worldwide. While this sounds nice to millions of Americans unaware of just how different many in Islam are from them, he shows how he and others are ignorant of the wider situation in the Middle East. After all Middle Eastern Christians are being decimated and wiped out at the hands of their Muslim neighbors.

Israel has No Reason to Be Friends with Turkey

There is a new strategic alliance forming in the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkey does not seem to be part of it.  With gas deals being signed between Cyprus, Greece, and Israel as well as defense pacts being pushed between these countries, the Israeli government has no need to return to the relationship they once had with Turkey.  The realignment shows just how strong Israel’s hand is in the future . By being the anchor country in the Eastern Mediterranean Israel has an opportunity to forge a new regional order.